Monthly Archives: June 2009

June 30, 2009

How Bare is the Cupboard?

By Richard Gross

Now that the Mets’ losing streak has reached five and their stud pitcher couldn’t stop the bleeding, the fever pitch is rising in New York. Omar Minaya must do something, something, anything! This team is built to win now, the division is winnable, they’re still in it, and they just need some help while their studs are out. Go get someone!

The other side of the coin has imminently reasonable voices calling for calm. This team is built now, they’re still in it, and they just need some help while their studs are out, they say. That help will come from the pieces and parts that make up the bench and the high minors. The cupboard is already too bare, and Minaya needs to keep some bullets in the gun. Stand pat!

Both arguments center on one key discussion: what is the state of the farm system? The current prognosis is that the team doesn’t have any can’t-miss prospects, and is lacking in high-upside guys. The high minors don’t have much talent to trade away. Either way, an honest appraisal of the prospects in the system will let us know if the players could be traded or if the team really needs to hold on to some talent to keep the farm system viable. Starting with AAA and going down, we’ll take a look at some interesting prospects here at GBB, and render a decision: trade ‘em or keep ‘em!

Nick Evans
Evans is actually in the major leagues, and getting some at-bats in a platoon with Daniel Murphy. The team seems to be looking to catch lightning in a bottle with Evans, and possibly ‘solve’ their temporary 1B problems with a Murphy/Evans platoon. We’ve talked about how Murphy’s career minor league split OPS against lefties is not great at .725. Well, at least Nick Evans can handle lefties: how about his .914 OPS against lefties in 421 minor league at-bats? So, play Evans against lefties and Murphy against righties, and you’ve got yourself a player that should approach an .800 OPS and give you decent offense.

But should that keep the team from trading Evans? His minor league progression has been very interesting. He started poorly and didn’t crack an .800 OPS in his first 500 plate appearances. In fact, he didn’t have a strong full year until he hit St. Lucie in his fourth pro year, and hit .286/.374/.476 and burst onto the Mets prospect scene. It does matter, though, that the park factor for St. Lucie in 2007 was a 1.15 for home runs, and that the park has played as a hitter’s haven for some time. And he still had those three full years of poor play behind him.

When he hit AA Binghamton and followed up with a .311/.365/.561 line, though, the Mets might have gotten a little giddy. Visions of Carlos Delgado‘s future replacement danced through their heads as they slept. Plans were made for him to begin this year at AAA and play his way into some major league time as needed.

Ooops. The old Evans showed up in Buffalo, and his .093/.218/.227 start was too much for the brass. He got demoted to Binghamton, and back in friendly confines, put up a mediocre .276/.350/.467 slash line in 117 at-bats until it didn’t matter what he was doing and the major league team needed a warm body. And now he’s playing well in the major leagues… in very few at-bats.

There will be some that will say that he’s a keeper. Murphy is done, they’ll say, and thank heavens for Evans! That’s a bit short-sighted. There’s not actually that much to like about Evans: as he’s advanced in the minor league system, his strikeout rate has gotten worse, and his walk rate (mediocre at around 8%) has stayed the same. His .462 slugging percentage in the minors is nothing to write home about, and both of his career years in the minors came in parks that played as hitters parks.

This is not to rain on the parade. He might be a really good fourth outfielder and backup first baseman. He may even rise to about an average level as a first baseman. In a platoon situation, he can rake against lefties and can help in the short-term.

But the fact is, he’s more likely to be fringe major leaguer over the long run. And if any other team likes him more than that, the verdict should be: TRADE HIM!

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June 28, 2009

Yup, The Mets Need a Bat

By Richard Gross

Sure, sending Tim Redding out there against the Yankees lineup was a little sadomasochistic. And the lineup has suffered more significant injuries than any team in recent memory. But this team looks like it could certainly use a bat.

Just a couple days ago, this team looked like it could survive with a bandaid like Scott Hairston or Jason Michaels. That was before two shellackings by the top lineup in baseball. That was before they scored one run in 22 straight innings of play. That was before Gary Sheffield got another cortisone shot in his knee, and before the team began to look like a AAA farm squad. That was before AJ Burnett made them look silly with 10 strikeouts in seven innings of one-hit ball.

It must be difficult to be Omar Minaya right now. He’s right about one thing – it’s hazardous to your continued employment as a general manager to act brashly or out of a need to comfort the masses. But on the other hand, the news is not very good right now. Consider:

Carlos Beltran is on crutches and will not be back in 15 days. Minaya said he’d gladly sign up to get his star outfielder back at the beginning of the second half, but that is beginning to sound hopeful.

Jose Reyes is still not running. He’s jogging and taking batting practice, but no explosions. He wants to be back right after the all-star game, too, but remember what happened last time he came back at 85 percent, ramped it up for a base hit, and ended right back on the DL.

Carlos Delgado has positive reports, but there’s no way they are going to let him play any quicker than the original 10-week deadline of July 28. They’ll wait until early August for this trade-deadline acquisition.

John Maine was scratched from his rehab start, got a cortisone shot, and is talking about coming back after the all-star break. That was after his ‘promising’ four-inning rehab start where he struck out one batter. Uh-oh.

Oliver Perez is going to stay in the minors ‘rehabbing’ his ‘injury’ because he’s been terrible. He had an unconscionable five walks in four and one-thirds of an inning in his first crack at AAA, and there’s talk he’ll be a reliever when he returns.

Angel Pagan is a week away from even beginning his rehab, and how much offense the speedster with a career .732 OPS was really going to help, especially since his .662 OPS against lefties is even worse.

So what should Minaya do? He didn’t want to spend Bobby Parnell on Mark DeRosa, so that name is off the list. Hairston and Michaels suddenly seem like too little in the face of the Met’s slugging percentage, which at .399 is the fifth-worst in the National League. And that woeful slugging number includes contributions from Mets currently sitting on the Pavano.

Aubrey Huff seems like a decent choice, as his defense in the outfield is just as bad as his infield defense. If only he wasn’t a lefty, he’d be the target. Also, Baltimore is known for asking a lot in exchange for its veterans. But at least we know he can hit.

The Mets are only 1.5 games out right now, and it looks like 88-90 wins will win the division, so it’s probably not time to panic. But every game that they run this offense out on the field is another game they’ll have to win in the second half. Some move to bolster the offense might be the pick-me-up this dragging team needs, if only because it will show that Minaya is working to try and replace the lost veterans as well.

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June 24, 2009

Is Fernando Martinez a Center Fielder?

By Richard Gross

Last night, Fernando Martinez made his second debut with the Metropolitans, playing center field and batting seventh. If the 20-year-old can even hold his head above water defensively or offensively, the team could solve two problems with one player. They need a center fielder, at least against lefties, and they need some offensive punch.

The question is, of course, if Martinez can hold his head above water. So far his .185/.274/.262 line is underwhelming at best. Defensively, AAA Buffalo had also avoided playing Martinez in center field all year this year, choosing instead, for the most part, to play 29-year-old Colorado castoff Cory Sullivan there fulltime. Sullivan’s lackluster .274/.338/.348 line there this year, and his career .740 OPS against lefties in the minors, make him a poor choice for offensive igniter or lefty platoon caddy for Jeremy Reed.

So Omar Minaya called up Martinez. Here I must apologize for something I said in my last post. I pointed out that Martinez has a .903 OPS against lefties in the minors – that number is actually only for this year. Given that this nice OPS has been accrued in only 41 at-bats against southpaws so far this year, and that his career minor league OPS against lefties is .700 (vs. .815 against righties), it seems that Martinez is also not a great fit for the major league team.

And we haven’t even gotten into his defense. If his minor league team won’t play him in center field, you’ve got a major clue that he’s probably not ready to play cavernous Citi Field center field. In his first game back, he acquitted himself well for the most part, and made all the ‘easy’ catches. He did, however, let a ball fall that Carlos Beltran would have snared. It’s hard to fault a 20-year-old rookie for not being one of the best defensive center fielders in the majors right away, but there you have it.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a range factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Beltran, an elite defender, had a career range factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. To give an idea of the scale, a ‘poor’ defensive center fielder like Shane Victorino has a career 2.2 range factor in center field.

So long story short, if Martinez can put something together at the plate, he can play center field for the Mets until Beltran comes back, and allow Minaya to look for some offense he can plug in at the corner outfield or corner infield positions. Victorino’s bat helps him play in center field, so the same is true for Martinez.

But if Minaya is to play it safe, Scott Hairston (career range factor of 2.0 in CF) and Jason Michaels (2.1 range factor in CF) are the low-cost options that will eliminate some of the defensive angst that might arise from playing Martinez in center field too often.

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June 22, 2009

Examining Trade Options

By Richard Gross

Just yesterday we took a look at the lineup without Carlos Beltran in it, and boy, was it ugly. Now that he’s out for at least 15 days with a bone bruise, we’ll get a good long look at this lineup. Scroll down for some shivers down the spine. That lineup will depend on Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church to be heroes every night, and as we’ve seen, that can be a dicey proposition. David Wright can’t do all the work alone.

So what should the team be looking for? Let’s look at the flaws of the lineup below before identifying some possible additions.

SS Alex Cora
1B Daniel Murphy
3B David Wright
LF Ryan Church
RF Gary Sheffield
2B Luis Castillo
CF Jeremy Reed
C Omir Santos

Alex Cora‘s limitations are obvious, but the solution is also obvious because acquiring middle infielders is probably more costly than it’s worth. Even though Jose Reyes is still too hurt to run, he’s the best way to fix that spot. Cora is decent enough on defense and is capable of putting up an okay .340 OBP for a little while longer at least. We’ll put backup middle infielder on this list, though, since the Mets currently don’t have one.

Murphy, as reported in the last post, is great against lefties (.306/.341/.500 in 36 at-bats), and could probably use a caddy against tough righties, so let’s add that in: a guy that can play 1B and hits righties well. Unfortunately, in corner outfield, they’ve got a different problem. Ryan Church is playing well again, but he sports a .279/.354/.468 line against righties – and a .252/.323/.383 line against lefties. That last line comes in 342 at-bats, so it’s a significant problem. Church should probably be platooned against lefties, and that need trumps the backup 1B situation, especially since that need could continue once Carlos Delgado returns.

Then again, could the solution be on the team currently? Last year’s revelation, Fernando Tatis, has taken a heck of a step back this year, but his .256/.333/.380 line right now looks suspiciously like his career line (.264/.346/.442). He is marginally better against lefties (.270/.350/.450 lifetime in 793 at-bats), so the best outfield would have him in against lefties, over Church.

But here’s the rub: Jeremy Reed is actually okay against righties lifetime (.715 OPS), and with his capable defense, he could caddy for Beltran – against righties. But what to do against lefties? Tatis and Gary Sheffield can not – I repeat – cannot play center field. And recent callup Fernando Martinez hasn’t played center field in AAA all year (in fact, due to Martinez’s better split against lefties in the minors – .903 OPS vs lefties, .878 OPS vs righties – he’ll probably start in LF over Church against lefties and in RF when Sheffield needs a breather). Obviously, the team needs a center fielder against lefties.

So there you have it: the team most needs a capable outfielder that can hit lefties. Next on the list is a backup middle infielder. Those aren’t the sexiest needs. Probably, the the name coming our way won’t be too exciting. But here are some names of some players that might be available, might be able to play center field or the middle infield, and can hit lefties reasonably well:

Felipe Lopez – Josh Byrnes, the Diamondbacks’ GM, said this before the team lost three straight to the Mariners over the weekend: “It’s the middle of June and we’re 10 games under .500, so I think there’s a reality as far as the types of discussions we have had and will have with other clubs,” Byrnes said. Looks like the team will be a seller, and selling spare parts is the easiest way to pick up some spare prospects. Lopez can play the MI and has a batting average over .300 against lefties over the last two years.

Mark DeRosa – his team is in last place, and his name has been connected with the Mets for some time now. You may be surprised that he’s had close to 300 attempts at shortstop, too. Throw in his lifetime .864 OPS against lefties, and he seems perfect. Unfortunately, those tries at shortstop almost all came in 2001 with the Braves, and he’s not the defender he used to be, so he would be more of an emergency shortstop that can play the corner infield, second base, and the corner outfield. But not center or short. Oh, and he’d probably cost a better prospect.

Aubrey Huff / Nick Johnson – both of their teams would be ready to deal their extra veterans for the right price. But Huff can’t play a premium position on the field, and his .751 OPS against lefties means that he doesn’t add enough to pay a good prospect for his production. Johnson can hit lefties, but he famously cannot play anywhere in the field other than first base. What happens when/if Delgado returns? Expensive bench piece. I doubt either of these is going to happen.

Trevor Crowe – This is just conjecture, but this young Indian is on a seller and is running out of options. Of course, he doesn’t cost the Indians much, so he probably won’t move. But he can play center field, and his .811 minor league split against lefties is better than his split versus righties. This could be a move to complement Jeremy Reed in a smart way. Maybe he’ll be a throw-in if the Mets go for DeRosa.

Scott Hairston – Maybe young Tony Gwynn (currently batting .348/.439/.467) is turning enough heads in San Diego that they can let the older Hairston go (he’s 28 years old). Unfortunately, Hairston was peaking before getting injured, and his numbers are currently inflated. If Minaya can convince the Pads that the numbers are a mirage, he can maybe pry Hairston and his .896 OPS versus lefties loose. He would be a great fit on this team.

Jason Michaels – The list can’t get any less sexy, I assure you. Michaels can play center field, though, and has a .797 OPS versus lefties (.714 versus righties). He could be had for a song, too. And not even a good song.

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June 21, 2009

Testing the Depth

By Richard Gross

I’ve been critical of Omar Minaya in this space. Seemingly, though he worked hard to solve both problems, his teams always have trouble with the bullpen and with depth. He can acquire the stars, but putting the correct pieces around them has so far eluded him. He makes veteran teams, I’ve said, and when the veterans inevitably get hurt, the guys stepping in for them have been inferior to other championship-contenders.

But maybe it’s getting a little ridiculous this year. There’s news now that Carlos Beltran is going in for an MRI for his knee. This comes on the more predictable heels of a rumor that Gary Sheffield was going to have an MRI on his knee as well – and the response from Sheff that he will play through the pain. If Beltran goes out for any period of time, let’s take a look at the lineup the Mets would trot out there:

SS Alex Cora
1B Daniel Murphy
3B David Wright
LF Ryan Church
RF Gary Sheffield
2B Luis Castillo
CF Jeremy Reed
C Omir Santos

Ouch. That’s a David Wright injury from being a last-place offense. Consider that Luis Castillo has injury problems of his own, and Sheff is out there on one knee, and you realize that this is a team on the brink offensively.

But maybe it’s time to give Omar Minaya a little credit. First, the rumors have him looking for a versatile bat, which might actually be more important than an arm, considering that he has John Maine and Oliver Perez waiting in the wings and the bullpen actually looks okay if either Bobby Parnell or Brian Stokes can figure it out. If just one of the starters can step forward as a number two, the Mets might be fine in the postseason, provided they get there.

This team has the third-most trips to the Disabled List in the majors this year. Just take a look at the guys currently on the Pavano:

J. Maine SP Jun 7 15-day Right shoulder fatigue
J. Putz RP Jun 5 15-day Right elbow surgery – out 8-10 weeks
R. Martínez SS/2B Jun 3 60-day Fractured left pinkie finger
Á. Pagán RF/LF Jun 1 15-day Strained right groin
J. Reyes SS May 21 15-day Right calf tendinitis
C. Delgado 1B May 11 15-day Right hip impingement
O. Pérez SP May 3 15-day Right patellar tendinitis
B. Wagner RP Mar 27 60-day Left elbow surgery – out for season

That’s quite a list. That’s the starting shortstop from atop the order, the starting first baseman and cleanup hitter, the setup man, and the number two and three pitchers from the starting rotation. Not to mention two guys that were the backup middle infielder and primary backup outfielder at the outset of the season.

Playing Alex Cora may seem like a problem, but when he’s actually your third option there, maybe it’s not as bad as you’d first think. Ditto with Jeremy Reed – he was supposed to be the fifth or sixth outfielder at best. A depth guy. Daniel Murphy was supposed to platoon in left field, where his .324/.359/.529 career line against lefties would look pretty good.

If Minaya knew that JJ Putz had bone spurs when he traded for him, then maybe that trade was ill-conceived and that particular piece can be on him. But a lot of these other injury situations have actually shown that the Mets GM has brought in some long shot backups that are playing well enough in their roles as patches while the big boys are out. If he trades for one more offensive piece, and one of their injured starting pitchers gets right – this team is not yet done.

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June 18, 2009

Francisco Rodriguez, on the Decline

By Richard Gross

Perhaps I spoke too soon about Francisco Rodriguez. Here’s what I said yesterday:

Francisco Rodriguez – As he signed, much had been made of his declining K/9, inflating BB/9, and the possiblity of a decline following his major-league-record-setting year last year. His strikeouts are down again, and they probably will decline as he continues to throw pitch after pitch. However, a 9.74 K/9 against a 4.14 BB/9 is stil very good. His BABIP is really lucky (.222), but even if he regresses, K-Rod will be among the best in the league. No short-term problems here.

The key words may be “short-term.”

Consider that his strikeout rate is actually in a FIVE-year decline, from 13.18 K/9 in 2004. His fastball went from from 94.8 MPH in 2006 to 91.9 MPH in 2008. His WHIP went from 1.10 in 2006 to 1.29 last year. His line drive percentage against has gone from 14.5% against in 2006 to  20.3% this year. He’s throwing his curveball less than he has since 2006.

Before this year, it was clear: he was on his way down.

So far this year, though, he has actually reversed many of those trends other than the strikeout rate. He’s enjoyed coming to the National League, and his fastball has regained life, all the way back to 93 MPH this year. His walk rate his down. His WHIP is down. Before last week, everyone was happy.

Suddenly, he’s back.

We’ll see. The batting average on balls he has allowed into play this year is .222, and that number trends towards .300 across baseball every eyar. So as those baseballs start falling into the field of play, fans here may finally see what is really going on. He’s a pitcher on his way down that was getting a little lucky this year but can’t mask that he’s in decline.

Just look at the number of events in the first paragraph against the number in his second. Then consider that Billy Wagner never had the same quick drop in velocity, and that Wagner has had a much lower walk rate than Francisco Rodriguez every year since K-Rod’s career started in 2002.

Yeah, there’s an important fact: Rodriguez is only 27, while Wagner signed his deal at 36. I stick by my first assertion from a day ago: K-Rod is on his way down, and it will still be good enough to be a great closer in the National league.

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June 17, 2009

How Bad is the Bully, Actually?

By Richard Gross

The last couple of nights have created the distinct impression that there is something wrong with the bullpen in New York. First, Bobby Parnell opens up the door on Tuesday night, and Francisco Rodriguez is needed in a game that used to be a blowout. Then, tonight, Pedro Feliciano serves up the game-winning home run to Aubrey Huff on a failed slider.

But are things as bad as they seem? You might be suprised that the Mets bullpen is actually best in the National League. Before tonight, they owned a sparkling 3.18 bullpen ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP and 7.19 K/9 against 3.92 BB/9. Those walks aren’t great, and they’ve probably led to the 8-13 record the bullpen owns, but if you include all of the guys in the pen, you’re going to inflate the walk totals a little. I mean, those 3.92 walks per nine include Jon Switzers‘ two walks in two innings, for example.

Let’s take a quick look at the major players and see if anyone is in line to get better or worse, quickly.

Francisco Rodriguez – As he signed, much had been made of his declining K/9, inflating BB/9, and the possiblity of a decline following his major-league-record-setting year last year. His strikeouts are down again, and they probably will decline as he continues to throw pitch after pitch. However, a 9.74 K/9 against a 4.14 BB/9 is stil very good. His BABIP is really lucky (.222), but even if he regresses, K-Rod will be among the best in the league. No short-term problems here.

Pedro Feliciano – With JJ Putz sidelined by bone spur surgery, Feliciano is suddenly the setup man and no longer the LOOGY. And while he’s good against lefties (1.01 career WHIP), Feliciano is a little miscast as setup man. His 1.62 WHIP against righties is only the start of it. Consider that Pedro has a career BB/9 over 3.75, and is now walking only 1.65 a game. Then look at his BABIP (.215) and realize the ball has been bouncing his way this year… so far. Expect more blown games as his ERA rises to about the high threes where it belongs. Overall, he’ll have the best year of his career, but some ouchies are coming.

Bobby Parnell – Here’s where the bullpen gets a little worrisome. If Parnell was just switching off with Feliciano and Putz was still the setup man, it wouldn’t be so bad that he has some wildness in him. He’s walking almost four batters per nine, and that will have to stop if the Mets are to depend on him this year. The good news is that his BABIP is .381, so some balls may begin to bounce his way. The bad news is that he’s always walked a lot of batters (over three and a half per game in the minors). His 95 MPH fastball is a weapon, though, and Parnell is the key to the next month or so. Can he harness the pitch just enough to give the Mets a bridge to Putz? Definitely maybe.

Brian Stokes – Stokes also has a nice fastball (94 MPH), but he uses it a bit much (75% of the time), and he doesn’t really have a strikeout pitch. He used to throw his curveball much more, and if he can find it, maybe he can be useful. But striking out fewer than five batters per nine and walking 2.66 a game means that he’s always walking a thin line between disaster and success. The good news is that he did so just last year – he used the curveball 20% of the time, and struck out seven batters per nine.

Ken Takahashi – This 40-year-old journeyman from Japan would be more useful if he could use his left hand more effectively. His 2.82 WHIP against lefties says that he won’t be much more than a mop-up man. His many walks (over 4 a game) has us hoping that Manuel doesn’t fall in love with his 88 MPH fastball and stick him out there too many more times. We all remember those home runs against the Phillies.

Sean Green – Green has been up and down this season, but six strikeouts against two walks in his last eight games in June. Is that enough to make us forget his 8.49 / 1.47 April? Actually, let’s hope so. His 64% groundball rate is elite, and he’s striking out over 7 a game. Let’s hope that Manuel sees the good in his groundball machine and uses him correctly (i.e. not against lefties, says that 1.82 WHIP against lefty batters). Green could get better as the season progresses.

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June 14, 2009

Bruney Back Bites on K-Rod

By Richard Gross

Adam Rubin reports today that the feud between Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Bruney has escalated.

The whole thing started when Rubin was in Trenton and talked to some of the players about the blown-save/Luis-Castillo fiasco Friday night. Watch Bruney veer into left field, figuratively:

Regarding the Luis Castillo mistake, Bruney said: “Unbelievable. I’ve never seen anything like that. I have, but in high school. It couldn’t happen to a better guy on the mound, either. He’s got a tired act.”

Why the unsolicited K-Rod rancor?

“Two years ago, when he lost the game—I don’t know if anybody saw it, I did—he was in Oakland,” Bruney said. “He was pitching for Anaheim. He didn’t get a call. So he was like complaining. The catcher threw it back and just kind of did one of these. (Holding out glove at side with indifference.) It hit off his glove and bounced behind. The guy from third scored to win the game. So he gets what he deserves.”

Asked if there was anything personal between the two, Bruney added: “No. I just don’t like watching the guy pitch. I think it’s embarrassing.”

So, today before the game supposedly Bruney (now activated and with the big league squad) and Phil Coke came over to ‘make amends.’ It didn’t work out so well:

the Mets closer wanted no part of it and started getting animated. The Yankees’ Jose Veras and Mets bullpen coach Randy Niemann eventually had to intervene.

Players later were hugging in the outfield, including Alex Cora and CC Sabathia.

Well, Rubin’s vague use of ‘players’ suggests that no relievers were probably hugging in the outfield, so the bully-on-bully hatred is going to seethe it’s way through the game today. It’s silly.

Our take is that people make mistakes. Obviously, Francisco Rodriguez would like to have that game in Oakland back. It was an embarassing lack of focus in the face of a blown call, and it did cost his team the game. But he’s obviously had a ton of value for his teams, so the scale gets balanced in his favor.

Bruney has no such value to fall back on. His mistake, taking K-Rod on in a battle of the words, actually is a little more glaring without the years of experience to back it up. It’s the classic case of think it, but don’t say it, kid.

Luis Castillo would love to have that ball back, but the play was actually indicative of his failing defense. This year is the second straight year he’s been worse than average at second base defensively. If that continues, he’ll find the pine because his hitting is so close to average that it won’t float his sub-par defense. He’s an embattled character, but for a reason. If he can get his defense and offense to an average major league starting second baseman, he’s a reasonable #2 hitting 2B and we won’t hold one blown play against him.

But if he continues to be sub-par in the field and barely at par at the plate, Friday night may have been the beginning of the end.

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June 12, 2009

Bully and Depth, not Wright, to Blame (also, Hit F/x is great)

By Richard Gross

Why is David Wright such a whipping boy in New York? Why do Mets fans feel the need to drag down their best player?

After two straight close games where it was obviously the bullpen and team depth that let the team down (neither of which is an Omar Minaya specialty, by the way), talk today on New York radio stations drifted towards David Wright watching a ball a bit too long when he thought it was a home run. If there is a problem here, it’s that a couple too many of his home runs have ended up as doubles.

The problem certainly is not Wright’s effort level. Game after game, Wright is there from infield practice to postgame interviews – and he’s the face of the franchise. He says the right things. He works hard, treats teammates right, and is an all-around good guy. Why doesn’t he get the Derek Jeter treatment? I suppose the rings have something to do with it, but hopefully Wright will get his rings in New York and then get the royal treatment he deserves.

Because Ken Takahashi and Bobby Parnell were the guys that served up the game-losing pitches in both extra-inning games. And those two names lead back to Omar Minaya again. It seems surprising that the big-budget team in the National League can’t do better than a 40-year-old pitcher that was mediocre in Japan and a fire-balling young righty with a 1.52 career WHIP.

Actually, there should just be more kids like Parnell in there. They don’t cost much, they have more upside than retread veterans, and you can send them down when they are struggling. Now if only Minaya had a Deolis Gueras or some other young pitchers in the minors, and they weren’t all playing for other teams right now. Then the Mets might have some ammunition to reload while their veterans all take naps on the DL.

Speaking of veterans, guess which team has the slowest batted-ball speed in all of baseball? You got it. The ball comes off of the Mets’ bats slower than any other team in baseball, on average. Take a look at the players that have the highest batted ball speeds and you’ll notice something. Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujos, Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Cameron are the top 5. Slug mutch?

Minaya put together a team of veterans that don’t pound the ball and don’t have depth in the bullpen or on the bench. They really need some young guys to step forward, or a trade that improves their depth, or they’ll watch the deeper Phillies succeed again – despite an utter lack of starting pitching. Then again, the starters in Blue and Orange haven’t been great shakes either.

By the way, Hit F/x is the newest thing in sabremetrics, and even the Wall Street Journal has noticed. It tracks the speed and trajectory of batted balls and gives us oh-so-much-more data to use when analyzing our beloved sluggers. Look for some new analysis from this page in coming months, using this data to try and take a fresh look at old problems.

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June 10, 2009

The Draft, Citi Field, and David Wright

By Richard Gross

The major league draft has come and gone, and though MLB has given it their best effort by televising the first day and promoting it on major media outlets around the world, the event was still ho-hum and low-energy for most.

It’s not about the personalities involved. By all accounts, the Mets top picks have some upside. They did okay for not having a first-round pick. Stephen Matz is a left-handed high school pitcher who can already hit 94 on the gun with his fastball. ESPN’s Keith Law rated him the 47th best prospect and the Mets got him at pick #72. It’s certainly not about their third-round pick, shortstop Robbie Shields from Florida.

No, the reason the draft is a little ho-hum is that the likelihood is that none of these guys will ever make an impact in the major leagues. Maybe that slightly violent delivery that Matz has will lead to arm injuries. Or that unusual swing that gave Shields the label “adequate” from Law won’t translate to the majors. Even if they make it, one or both might just be utility players filling roles on the major league team. There are just so many players in the minor leagues, and so many high-school and colllege prospects that are eligible for the draft – there’s no way to keep track, and there’s very little instant gratification. If you like a prospect, you’ll have to wait two or three years, on average, to see them.

No, MLB, don’t try to be something you’re not. Don’t push too hard.

And I’ll start following these guys once they hit AA and prove they can hit do a little something – even then, who knows if they’ll get anywhere.

About last night’s game, there’s a little I-told-you-so to spread around. David Wright is fine, I told you so. He’ll get his home run total into the mid-20s and he’ll be a big part of the Met’s push for the postseason. There’s nothing wrong with him.

A little gopher-itis by both pitchers (7 home runs on the night) led many pundits to claim that the park is no longer a pitcher’s park. If you look at this year’s park factors, you’d see that Citi Field ranks fourth with a 1.343 park factor for home runs, meaning that players hit 34% more home runs there than they would in a neutral park. Case closed, right? Citi Field is Coors East!!

That’s silly, too. It usually takes a year – even two – to figure out how a park plays. Just look at “Land Shark” Stadium in Miami. Last year, predictably, it was the fourth hardest park to hit home runs out of, with a .844 park factor for home runs. This year, suddenly, it’s helping home runs happen with a 1.138 park factor for home runs, good for 10th in the league.

Which one is right? Obviously the number that was the culmination of a full season of stats is a better number than this year’s number, born of 1/3 of the season. Check back to 2007 and see its 1.005 park factor for home runs, and you’ll realize it’s very hard to get a bearing on the true nature of a park.

Here’s to better ways to figuring out the true essence of a park! Here’s also to waiting more than two months before declaring a park plays one way or another! And here’s to the Mets!

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