Monthly Archives: September 2009

September 30, 2009

How Bad is the Mets Defense?

By Richard Gross

After Tuesday’s embarrassing loss to the Nationals in which the deciding run scored on a throwing error by Luis Castillo in the bottom of the eighth, manager Jerry Manuel put forth the regular platitudes about shaping up and playing better defensive ball. It occurred to me that beyond the management of the pitching staff, defense was probably the best area of the game for a manager to make his imprint. Defensive drills and positioning could go a long way towards helping the team play better defense.

Upon checking the numbers, I was surprised to find that the Mets are possibly the worst defensive team in baseball. That’s right, the worst. Their UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) is -6.2, meaning that the average Met is 6.2 runs worse defensively than the average Major League baseball player. The Twins are at -6.0 and, not surprisingly for a veteran team, the Yankees are next at -4.8. All the way on the other end of the spectrum, the Mariners are 9.2 runs better, on average, per 150 games.

Roll back the clock to 2008, though, and the Mets were 4.4 runs better than average and fifth in the league. What happened?

It may just be the same story as what happened to the rest of the team. Take away Jose Reyes (+1.8 UZR/150 career) and replace him with Alex Cora (-5.4 UZR/150 this year). Then replace Carlos Beltran (+3.6 UZR/150 career) with Angel Pagan (-1.4 UZR/150 in CF career). Add in an 85-year old left fielder in Gary Sheffield (-23.1 UZR/150 this year) and a little seasoning from fellow octogenarian Luis Castillo (-10.5 UZR/150 this year), and you’ve got your bad defense right there.

Of course, turning Carlos Delgado (-3.8 UZR/150 career) into Daniel Murphy (+5.2 UZR/150) this year was a turn for the positive. Also, Jeff Francouer (+5.9 UZR/150 career) was a positive addition, even if most of his defensive ability is built into his rocket arm. But a couple fingers in the dike does not stop a flood.

Looking at these numbers, it’s hard to really blame Manuel. Castillo has been declining defensively for years, and Manuel did not sign him to that stupid contract. Sheffield can barely move in the outfield. Manuel didn’t hurt Beltran’s knees or take out Reyes’ hammy. All he can do is run the defensive drills and try to put his best defensive team on the grass.

But Omar Minaya? It looks like it’s time to put Luis Castillo out of his misery. He’s giving up more runs on defense than he’s creating on offense, and any step back offensively would make him absolutely worthless. Maybe a team doesn’t value defense much and wants Castillo, with some money shaved off the contract. It’s time to do it.

Remember that the easiest way to manufacture a quick turnaround in this game is on defense. Look at last year’s leaders in UZR/150 (the Phillies and the Rays) and learn from them. Get your studs back, and let the old men go. Think about the defense.

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September 28, 2009

Paying Putz not to Play

By Richard Gross

As I alluded to at the end of my post about Octavio Dotel, the Mets have a decision looming about JJ Putz and his $8.9 million option.

At one time, those numbers did not seem so ridiculous for a set-up man of his caliber. In 2006 and 2007 combined, Putz earned his team over $22 million as their closer. He racked up 76 saves against only nine blown saves in those two years. He pitched over 70 innings both years and had an era of 1.86. His WHIP was well under one. He looked like a dominant lefty closer.

Then came 2008 and 2009, when he racked up only 75 innings combined, had an ERA over four, a WHIP over 1.5, and only 15 saves against 10 blown saves. He was hurt both years, and at times blamed the coaching staffs on both of his teams.

The decline was precipitous and obvious, and if you look at his strikeout rates, it really seems that his peak has come and gone. When he first came up, Putz struck out around seven batters a game, which was right in line with his minor league totals. Then in 2007, those totals jumped to double digits. He paired this jump with a corresponding halving of his walk rate, and suddenly he was a relief ace.

Even in 2008, before his injury that year, he was still striking out over 10 batters a game. But his walk rate returned to its customary spot in the threes, and something was not right. He went down with rib and shoulder injuries and accrued only 45+ innings that year.

This year, though, Putz came out firing mothballs. His strikeout rate plummeted to under six a game and his walk rate rose to over five. He lost a mile and half of MPH off of his fastball, and that pitch, which had once been among the best in the game, was suddenly sub-par. Batters stopped reaching, they started centering the ball, and Putz got into trouble because he couldn’t rely on the fastball any more. Sure, a big portion of it has been his injuries, but those injuries are starting  to pile up.

And now Putz has been worth a mere $3 million over the past two years of his contract.

It stands to reason that the team would rather pay him $1 million to not play for them, call it a writeoff, and go hunting for a more stable reliever in the offseason. Heck, it could even be Putz himself, but not at nine million dollars. No way.

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September 26, 2009

Octavio Dotel on the Mets?

By Richard Gross

Strange things happen on teams that are out of it. Veterans develop sore backs just in time for the team to try a rookie at their position. Optional surgeries suddenly become scheduled surgeries. And then there’s the age-old tradition of the veteran talking about playing somewhere else next year.

Maybe they are just taking advantage of the situation to look out for themselves. They’re still getting tape recorders stuck in their face after games, but the games don’t matter and next year is on everyone’s mind. So it’s natural that they may just speculate about where they might be next year.

So we have Octavio Dotel telling the Chicago Sun-Times that he approached the White Sox about an extension and was told he wasn’t in their plans. Amazingly, Dotel continued talking and created a wish list that started with the New York Mets and ended with the New York Yankees.

Would it be a good idea to bring Dotel back to the team that gave him his first shot in the majors? The answer, as always, is that it depends on price.

Dotel had a normal year, with his customary high strikeout rate (10.83 K/9) paired with a high walk rate (5.20 BB/9). Perhaps the best news, with Dotel’s injury history, is that he’s now pitched two straight years with over 60 innings and little injury concern. He’s been a little too hittable as he’s gotten older (1.44 WHIP this year and 54 hits in 62 innings), but he had an FIP under four in the tougher league and is still missing bats at 36 years old.

His fastball is still up around 93 MPH, paired mostly with an 81 MPH slider. The fastball used to be his bread and butter, and was an excellent pitch as recently as 2008. His slider, however, gained some movement and is the better pitch this year. This development could be seen either way: either he now has two strong pitches, or it’s worrisome that his main pitch is losing effectiveness.

Either way, if you add it all up and the package was worth $3.6 million this year and $2.8 million last year. It stands to reason that if he comes to the Mets for about $3 million a year (and not too many years), then he’s worth it.

The question then becomes, what to do with JJ Putz and his $1 million option?

We’ll tackle that topic shortly.

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September 22, 2009

Jason Marquis in New York?

By Richard Gross

Jason Marquis, a Staten Island boy, tells Jeff Francouer who tells Mike Puma at the NY Post that Marquis would love to pitch in New York. This passes for news for the NY Post, I guess.

More interesting is that it puts Jason Marquis on the list of potential mid-market free agents that we’ve been perusing here at Godblessbuckner.com.

Brad Penny
Jon Garland
Doug Davis
Carl Pavano

Where does Marquis fit here? Obviously everything depends on the price, but let’s look at each pitcher’s one- and three-year (average) value to see who’s been best most recently and who’s been best most consistently.

Brad Penny rode a resurgence in velocity this year to a $9 million value. His strikeout rate is sub-par (right under six per nine), but he only walks around three batters a game and has a decent career ground ball rate (45%) that he could easily recover next year. Despite Penny being terrible two years ago, his average value is also close to $9 million.

Jon Garland has actually been the same pitcher for the past three years, at least if you look at his underlying stats. He’s had a strikeout rate just north of four and a decent walk rate around two and a half. He’s also been very hittable, giving up more than a hit per inning. Garland’s value has been in this consistency – where his three-year average value is around $11 million, his full-year low was only $8.4 million (compared to Penny’s $0.5 million last year). He’s a very safe play, but he may come expensive because of it.

Doug Davis is coming off his worst year in seven years, but still earned the Diamondbacks $7.4 million with his statistics this year. Before that, he’s rattled off six straight years of $10 million-plus. He has the best strikeout rate of the group (almost seven per nine), but also the worst walk rate of the bunch (4.5 this year, over four for his career). I doubt Minaya will want to pony up double digit millions for a pitcher with a whip over one and a half, even if his three-year average value hovers around nine million and he’s been consistent.

You may be surprised, even after our post saying that Carl Pavano might be a good sign, that Pavano is coming off the second-best year of the bunch, worth over $15 million because of his ability to keep walks down (1.44 BB/9) and the ball on the ground (45%). The risk is obvious, though, so Pavano becomes the best sign only if he comes the cheapest, or signs the shortest contract. His three-year average value, not surprisingly, is the lowest of the group at $5.7 million (yes, he only accrued $1.4 million in 45 total innings over the two prior years).

Which brings us to Jason Marquis, the high-water man for 2009 value at $17.4 million. His three-year average is not shabby either (almost $11 million). Marquis has found his success with his career high in ground ball percentage (55%) and a four-year low in walk rate (3.08 BB/9). Marquis has had similar walk rates and ground ball percentages before, and since joining the Cubs has been steadily worth over seven million a year.

But look back to years with the Cardinals and some acid reflux may just rise up. In those full three years, he was worth a mere $6 million dollars. If the Mets sign him for three years and $30 million dollars (that should sound familiar), they may just get the Cardinals version of Marquis and feel some serious buyers remorse.

Because each of these guys is flawed, it may be best to just take the cheapest one. Then again, depending on their relationship to Bernie Madoff, the Wilpons and the Mets may not have a choice.

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September 21, 2009

The Milton Bradley Factor

By Richard Gross

You may have heard that Milton Bradley is available. The somewhat innocuous last straw was an interview in which he criticized the organization and offered the poisoned attitude of the team as the reason for their lack of championships. After all that Bradley has done, it didn’t seem like a big deal until it was.

Bradley is a warning sign to me. Maybe because I play fantasy and am not a real-life GM, I’ve always thought that talent trumps attitude – Give me Terrell Owens and a shot at the postseason, thank you very much. Gary Sheffield is available for a song? Yes. Randy Moss as the extra piece on my veteran team? Yup.

But Bradley seems to be a one-man antidote to that argument. Maybe because his talent is so borderline – he definitely can get on base, but the power comes and goes (.563 SLG last year, .397 this year), the speed is gone (12 stolen bases in the last three years), and the defense slowly out the door as well (this year was his second of his career under replacement level on defense) – but it seems obvious that because of his attitude, there’s an asterisk or a minus sign that you have to put next to any positive stats he puts up.

I mean, fangraphs has him valued at $5.3 million this year, which is not the worst bust ever, given his $10 million salary and the fact he’s been injured. But how do you put a dollar sign on all those questions that his teammates and managers have to answer about him? How do you put a dollar sign on all the fans that were turned against him? How much value do you put on all those calls from all the umpires who may occasionally make the odd call in honor of their compatriot (the umpire that was suspended when he called Bradley a boy)?

You have to think all the ill-will Bradley brought with him was worth a couple million dollars. Heck, Bradley was worth $20 million last year to the Rangers, and he signed for $10 million. There’s a reason he came ‘cheap.’

I propose the Bradley Factor: when a player’s attitude gets this bad, you have to halve his value. If he plays at a $20 million dollar level, he’s maybe addable to your team for $10 million. If he plays at a $5 million dollar level, he’s worth paying a couple million. If he’s got some talent, there’s always a price where he’ll make sense, especially if he put in an OPS over .950 from 2007-2008 like Bradley did..

Unfortunately, the Bradley Factor means that whoever trades for him (do the As want him back? can Omar Minaya take his shenanigans?) will want to pay him about $2.5 million a season, and want the Cubs to swallow $15 million dollars to get him off the team.

Ouch.

But Bradley would make a lot of sense for the Mets, especially if he comes for that cheap… what do YOU think?

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September 17, 2009

How the Mets can use $35 Million to Build a Contender

By Richard Gross

I was going to post an analysis of what the Mets should do on offense – a sort of collary to the “sign Carl Pavano” piece I put up yesterday, but then Tim Dierkes over at MLBTradeRumors.com beat me to the punch. His great piece details how the Mets can get the catcher, first baseman, corner outfielder and pitcher they need, all for around $30 million.

The summary of Dierkes’ piece is that he feels the team could pull in Greg Zaun, Nick Johnson, Bobby Abreu and Randy Wolf for $35 million. That would be an impressive haul, and if the economy aids general managers like it just might, we may see something similar in the offseason. Basically, it would be trading an aging superstar (Carlos Delgado) for depth, and this team needs depth.

As Dierkes points out, having Johnson and Abreu join Beltran and Wright would give the team four players capable of putting up .400 OBPs. That would be an impressive lineup with table setters and guys driving them in. Daniel Murphy would be a strong backup 1B, which you know you need if you sign Nick Johnson to be your starter.

I wonder if that amount of money would really bring those players in. I’d be fine with Carl Pavano in place of Randy Wolf, obviously. If Jermaine Dye comes over cheaper than Bobby Abreu, who may be looking for more money after being talked up as the biggest value of last year’s free agent class, I’d take him.

But overall the piece does give the Mets’ fans some hope. Look at this team, using all the second options in the free agent class. We’re using Nick Johnson instead of Adam LaRoche, and Carl Pavano instead of Randy Wolf, for example.

SS Jose Reyes
1B Nick Johnson
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran
RF Jermaine Dye
LF Jeff Francouer
2B Luis Castillo
C Greg Zaun / Josh Thole

RI Daniel Murphy
LI Anderson Hernandez
OF Angel Pagan

SP Johan Santana
SP John Maine
SP Mike Pelfrey
SP Oliver Perez
SP Carl Pavano
SP Jon Niese

RP Franciso Rodriguez
RP Pedro Feliciano

This is assuming something like 3/30 for Jermaine Dye, 3/24 for Nick Johnson, and 1/10 for Carl Pavano, with about $8 million left over for Greg Zaun, Pedro Feliciano, and the arbitration raises. That seems reasonable to me.

I have talked about how much I like Jonathon Niese in this space before, but starting with him in the minor leagues is the safe play. Then, if Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez can’t get it together next year, the Mets have an easy replacement whose hopefully shown that he’s healthy in the minor leagues.

The lineup looks strong for a National League lineup. Health is obviously always a question mark, but that is a team that could give a strengthening Braves squad and an aging Phillies squad a run for the money next year. And if something like this does happen over the winter, and the Giants don’t find a way to make an offensive splash on the west coast, I’ll make an early call:

The Wild Card will come out of the NL East next year. *

*note my caveats

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September 15, 2009

Bat or Pitcher? How about both?

By Richard Gross

Flashing across the Mets coverage of their disasterpiece against rookie Tommy Hanson tonight was the question: Should the Mets go get a bat or a #2 pitcher this offseason?

My question is: How about both?

With about $25 million coming off the books at the end of this year (Carlos Delgado‘s $12 million, Brian Schneider‘s $4.9 million, Ramon Castro‘s $2.6 million, Marlon Anderson‘s $1.2 million, Scott Schoeneweis‘ $1.6 million, Fernando Tatis‘ $1.7 million, Alex Cora‘s $2 million), it seems reasonable that the team could at least spend $20 million on two players. That could still leave $5 million to add the odd backup catcher and infielder types.

Unless, of course, Bernie Madoff hit the Wilpon’s wallets deeper than we think.

This team is built to win now and it needs a middle of the rotation pitcher and a batter. We’ll handle the batter later, but let’s look at the values that can be had this offseason in the soft middle of the pitching market. Here’s a list of the middle rotation guys that are available that could be bargains:

Brad Penny
Jon Garland
Doug Davis
Carl Pavano

That may not look like a great list, and the dirty little secret is that the best name on the list may just be the least likely pitcher to be signed by a New York team.

Yes, I’m talking about Carl Pavano. Do your best to suppress your nausea. I know the DL over in Yankee Stadium was renamed the Pavano. I know how much money the Yankees spent on him, and how little he produced for the other New York team. I know about the bruised buttocks.

How many former AL rejects need to come over to the NL and play well before we realize that’s a great way to find a bargain for the middle of your rotation? And how about Pavano, who has actually has some secondary stats that show he’s returned to competence?

Consider that his fielding-independent pitching number in the tougher league is 4.02. He’s got his walk rate under two again, which was the harbinger of some of his best seasons. His strikeout rate is the highest its been since he pitched for the Montreal Expos in 2001 (6.49 K/9). He has a solid groundball rate (45%) which is back up from his seven-year low last year. Fangraphs has his value at $14.6 million for the year. Best of all, he’s pitched 176 innings this year, and it seems that the threat of financial insecurity has lit a fire under his bruised buttocks.

If the Mets could get him on a one-year, $8-10 million dollar deal, he’d prove to be a strong number three and a bargain. That seems clear.

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September 14, 2009

New Mets Prospect Kirk is in the Huis

By Richard Gross

Since we have our rose-colored glasses on here at God Bless Buckner, it’s time to take a look at AA sensation Kirk Nieuwenhuis. ‘Huis was taken in the third round of last year’s draft and is already burning up center field in Binghamton. Unfortunately, Binghamton had no pitchers (the three top pitchers by innings all had ERAs over five) and didn’t make the post season, or we’d be watching ‘Huis now.

We do have to take his numbers this year (.406/.472/.656) with more than a little grain of salt. Not only is he in a park that augments offense by 10%, but those numbers come in a mere 32 at-bats.

Much more important were his 482 at-bats in singe-A, where he put up a decent .274/.357/.467 and showed good range in centerfield. Those numbers look a little bit better when you realize that the league leading OPS in that pitching dominated league was .829. He’s a natural center fielder with good speed (28 stolen bases) that needs to refine his instincts on the basepaths (12 caught stealings). The prospects seem good.

There are some worrisome obstacles to every day playing time in the major leagues. For example, there are his splits. His OPS vs lefties is a paltry .637 overall and it only got marginally better this year (.642). If he can’t smooth out that wrinkle, he’ll end up a platoon mate and a fourth outfielder.

Nieuwenhuis also hits too many groundballs (57.5% over his minor league career) and too few line drives (13.5%) and fly balls (28.5%). That’s the batted ball profile of a backup center fielder. (For example, Angel Pagan had 49.1%/13.4%/37.5% numbers that pretty much mirror those of the younger player.) At least ‘Huis has improved those numbers this year (54% ground ball rate, 32% fly ball rate), and continued work may bring out more of his burgeoning power (17 home runs and a .479 overall SLG%).

One last thing to worry about are his strike out rates. He’s struck out in more than 20% at-bats over his career and that number jumped to 25% in AA. It’s normal for strikeout rates to jump after ascension to a new level, but he needs to keep that number under 20%. Even if his power does continue to emerge, he’s no power-hitting outfielder that can afford to strikeout a third of the time because the rest of the times he’s hitting them out.

No, he’s much closer to a nice power/speed fourth outfielder. Let’s hope the rose-colored glasses last into next year and the Mets actually find themselves with a decent position player prospect for the first time in a little while.

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September 13, 2009

A Couple of Reasons for Hope?

By Richard Gross

Today’s game offered Mets fans a couple glimmers of hope for next year.

First, John Maine started the game and threw about 92 MPH on the top end. That’s right in line with his best fastball velocity, so that has to be considered good news. He was on a 60-70 pitch pitch count, and ended the third inning with 57 pitches. There was no reason to send him back out there. Though he was saddled with the loss, he struck out three, walked only one, and gave up one run in a promising start.

If Maine can come back and give the Mets the number two starter that he seemed to be, the top end of the rotation will be stabilized next year. The team might have too many #5s and now #3s and #4s, but they also have almost $30 million coming off the books next year. The right pitcher might become a bargain and slide in ahead of Jonathan Niese and bump one of Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez from the rotation. Yes, I still think one of those guys should pitch in the pen if they aren’t going to make any progress as pitchers.

Another good sign was that Josh Thole continued his impressive debut. We’ve chronicled his lack of power here, but if he can provide a solid batting average, he can help the bottom of the Mets lineup next year. So far, Thole is eight for his first 18, with a 4-for-4 performance today against the Phillies. Of course, all but one of his hits have been singles, but beggars can’t be choosers. Thole almost came for free with a 13th-round draft pick, so if he turns into a major league regular the team will count it as a win.

The last is not an unmitigated success story, but there’s a possible major league reliever in Tobi Stoner. At the very least, he owns a major league name that caught some eyes today. My favorite Stoner tweet today was from @raschatz : “because it’s TOO easy: “Mets Stoner gets wasted by Francisco and Victorino HRs” #Phillies lead 4-0 in 5th.”

Stoner doesn’t have great minor league credentials – his strikeout rate never was great (it peaked last year at 7.4 K/9) and it dipped this year (to 5.4 K/9). On the other hand, he has above-average control (2.6 BB/9 career in the minors), he doesn’t give up line drives (14.5% career) or home runs (0.6 a game).

At 24 and no longer making big strides in the minor leagues, Stoner should be in the major league bullpen if he can show something this September. Today, he had some good (36 of 55 pitches were strikes, three strikeouts in three innings) and some bad (the home runs to Ben Francisco and Shane Victorino). He can be forgiven for some of the bad, since he was pitching in a band box today, but he needs to show that home runs won’t be a problem for him if he’s to be trusted with a major league roster spot.

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September 8, 2009

Can Daniel Murphy be the Mets' 1B Next Year?

By Richard Gross

Rob Neyer commented on Ben Shpigel‘s New York Times writeup of the Mets’ fortunes in 2010. Shpigel wrote about the unsettled situations on the Mets’ 2010 team, but felt that Daniel Murphy at 1B was a good internal option because his “offense is catching up with defense.”

Neyer begs to differ. He sees Murphy as a below-average offensive and defensive first baseman. Certainly, we saw that Murphy can’t handle left field, but recent reports have had his defense getting better while his offense also recovers.

The money quote from Neyer:

This season, 24 major league first basemen have played enough to qualify for the batting lead. Even with those wonderful stats since the middle of August, Murphy ranks 23rd in on-base percentage and 22nd in slugging percentage.

In fairness, Neyer admits:

there’s still plenty of room for improvement. Murphy’s only 24, and he spent just one full season in the minors (including just one game in Triple-A).

Is there really no chance that there’s an average (if underpowered) first baseman in there, rattling around?

Neyer contends that Murphy has never hit, which seems like an overtly negative way to describe it. Murphy did debut with a .313/.397/.473 line which would function just fine at first base. Batting average qualifiers at first base last year averaged .276/.358/.484, so Murphy would have been right around average last year had he played all year. Since he’s getting the major league minimum, that would be a bargain. His fangraphs page had Murphy valued at $4.3 million in only 131 2009 at-bats, for example.

Then again, there were flaws in his game last year. See that his BABIP was .386, so much of his batting average was luck-driven. Given his underlying stats, his expected BABIP was closer to .332. This year, his BABIP is lower than expected (.286). Have we seen Murphy define his ceiling and his floor in successive years? If so, the average of the two could still be useful and a bargain.

Not all of the fundamentals are the same in both years. His line drive rate went from out of this world (33%) to below average (18%). His walk rate went from good (12%) to average (7%). Those are on the negative side of the ledger. On the positive side this year, his strikeout rate settled in where it was in the minors (14%). His defense also improved from a negative in left field to a positive at first base.

It really doesn’t seem like a stretch to say that Murphy can put together the better parts of the two years and become an average first baseman and a bargain for the team. His defense at first base is above-average already. All he has to do his get that walk rate back over 10% (where it was for his entire minor league career), the line drive rate back over 20% (where it also was over his entire minor league career), and pull a couple inside fastballs for cheap home runs.

Voila, your average major league first baseman, bought for pennies on the dollar.

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