Flashing across the Mets coverage of their disasterpiece against rookie Tommy Hanson tonight was the question: Should the Mets go get a bat or a #2 pitcher this offseason?
My question is: How about both?
With about $25 million coming off the books at the end of this year (Carlos Delgado‘s $12 million, Brian Schneider‘s $4.9 million, Ramon Castro‘s $2.6 million, Marlon Anderson‘s $1.2 million, Scott Schoeneweis‘ $1.6 million, Fernando Tatis‘ $1.7 million, Alex Cora‘s $2 million), it seems reasonable that the team could at least spend $20 million on two players. That could still leave $5 million to add the odd backup catcher and infielder types.
Unless, of course, Bernie Madoff hit the Wilpon’s wallets deeper than we think.
This team is built to win now and it needs a middle of the rotation pitcher and a batter. We’ll handle the batter later, but let’s look at the values that can be had this offseason in the soft middle of the pitching market. Here’s a list of the middle rotation guys that are available that could be bargains:
Brad Penny
Jon Garland
Doug Davis
Carl Pavano
That may not look like a great list, and the dirty little secret is that the best name on the list may just be the least likely pitcher to be signed by a New York team.
Yes, I’m talking about Carl Pavano. Do your best to suppress your nausea. I know the DL over in Yankee Stadium was renamed the Pavano. I know how much money the Yankees spent on him, and how little he produced for the other New York team. I know about the bruised buttocks.
How many former AL rejects need to come over to the NL and play well before we realize that’s a great way to find a bargain for the middle of your rotation? And how about Pavano, who has actually has some secondary stats that show he’s returned to competence?
Consider that his fielding-independent pitching number in the tougher league is 4.02. He’s got his walk rate under two again, which was the harbinger of some of his best seasons. His strikeout rate is the highest its been since he pitched for the Montreal Expos in 2001 (6.49 K/9). He has a solid groundball rate (45%) which is back up from his seven-year low last year. Fangraphs has his value at $14.6 million for the year. Best of all, he’s pitched 176 innings this year, and it seems that the threat of financial insecurity has lit a fire under his bruised buttocks.
If the Mets could get him on a one-year, $8-10 million dollar deal, he’d prove to be a strong number three and a bargain. That seems clear.
