Jason Marquis, a Staten Island boy, tells Jeff Francouer who tells Mike Puma at the NY Post that Marquis would love to pitch in New York. This passes for news for the NY Post, I guess.
More interesting is that it puts Jason Marquis on the list of potential mid-market free agents that we’ve been perusing here at Godblessbuckner.com.
Brad Penny
Jon Garland
Doug Davis
Carl Pavano
Where does Marquis fit here? Obviously everything depends on the price, but let’s look at each pitcher’s one- and three-year (average) value to see who’s been best most recently and who’s been best most consistently.
Brad Penny rode a resurgence in velocity this year to a $9 million value. His strikeout rate is sub-par (right under six per nine), but he only walks around three batters a game and has a decent career ground ball rate (45%) that he could easily recover next year. Despite Penny being terrible two years ago, his average value is also close to $9 million.
Jon Garland has actually been the same pitcher for the past three years, at least if you look at his underlying stats. He’s had a strikeout rate just north of four and a decent walk rate around two and a half. He’s also been very hittable, giving up more than a hit per inning. Garland’s value has been in this consistency – where his three-year average value is around $11 million, his full-year low was only $8.4 million (compared to Penny’s $0.5 million last year). He’s a very safe play, but he may come expensive because of it.
Doug Davis is coming off his worst year in seven years, but still earned the Diamondbacks $7.4 million with his statistics this year. Before that, he’s rattled off six straight years of $10 million-plus. He has the best strikeout rate of the group (almost seven per nine), but also the worst walk rate of the bunch (4.5 this year, over four for his career). I doubt Minaya will want to pony up double digit millions for a pitcher with a whip over one and a half, even if his three-year average value hovers around nine million and he’s been consistent.
You may be surprised, even after our post saying that Carl Pavano might be a good sign, that Pavano is coming off the second-best year of the bunch, worth over $15 million because of his ability to keep walks down (1.44 BB/9) and the ball on the ground (45%). The risk is obvious, though, so Pavano becomes the best sign only if he comes the cheapest, or signs the shortest contract. His three-year average value, not surprisingly, is the lowest of the group at $5.7 million (yes, he only accrued $1.4 million in 45 total innings over the two prior years).
Which brings us to Jason Marquis, the high-water man for 2009 value at $17.4 million. His three-year average is not shabby either (almost $11 million). Marquis has found his success with his career high in ground ball percentage (55%) and a four-year low in walk rate (3.08 BB/9). Marquis has had similar walk rates and ground ball percentages before, and since joining the Cubs has been steadily worth over seven million a year.
But look back to years with the Cardinals and some acid reflux may just rise up. In those full three years, he was worth a mere $6 million dollars. If the Mets sign him for three years and $30 million dollars (that should sound familiar), they may just get the Cardinals version of Marquis and feel some serious buyers remorse.
Because each of these guys is flawed, it may be best to just take the cheapest one. Then again, depending on their relationship to Bernie Madoff, the Wilpons and the Mets may not have a choice.
