Joel Sherman is a smart guy. I like his writing and find him to be usually even-handed and clear-sighted. But when he outlines three possible acquisitions for a number two starter here, I think he’s a little guilty of the “my flotsam and jetsam for your valuable pitcher” ethos that pervades in New York.
It’s tragic because on first glance he’s tried so hard to avoid it. His idea is solid enough: find some AL fly-ball pitchers coming off bad years. Plug them into Citi Field and opposing National League lineups and get a Vincente Padilla-type out at a low cost. We’ve all seen how much nicer the NL is to pitchers, and we all know that Citi Field is a pitcher’s park (although it played to a .943 park factor for runs, but also a 1.057 park factor for home runs, meaning that its reputation is overstated).
But then look at the list of pitchers he starts: Jeremy Guthrie, Gil Meche, and Ervin Santana. Certainly the Mets would be buying low. But would their teams want to sell those pitchers low? And for the trade bait that Sherman suggests? Let’s take a look in reverse order.
Ervin Santana was famously shoved to the bullpen for the postseason after his 8-8, 5.03 ERA season and Sherman suggests that his team will want to unload his 3 year, $25.2 million contract in order to be in a better position to keep John Lackey. Except that the Angels won’t so soon forget last season’s monster year (16-7, 3.49). They’ll know that he has the potential to be worth three times that contract before it’s done if he regains his form. If they trade him, they’ll want prospects that Minaya can’t give up. And, anyway, Santana was worth almost as much as his contract in last year’s injury-riddled campaign. His slider was still an excellent pitch, and if he regains some of the velocity and makes his fastball a plus pitch again (a recovery he has pulled off before), he’ll be fine. Or he won’t, and he’ll still be a capable fifth starter signed at a good price. The Angels won’t be desperate to trade him.
Now we take a look at Gil Meche, a capable veteran pitcher with a four-pitch mix that has made him a strong pitcher for a while. His average strikeout rate (6.63 last year, and career) would certainly get a boost in the NL, but his 34% flyball rate doesn’t really qualify as a flyball pitcher, as it would place him outside of the top 50 in that statistic. But no matter, he is coming off a year where he was worth only about half of his contract, is on a team that could use some more youth and financial flexibility and won’t be contending in the next two years on Meche’s contract, and he could benefit from the move to the NL. Those things are all true. But trying to get him with Luis Castillo? Really? I’m going to have to call a ‘shame on you,’ to Sherman on that one. There’s no way in heck a competently run Royals team would want a defensively declining geriatric second baseman for their young team. Castillo only fits on a contending team needing a little more offense out of their middle infield.
Lastly, we come to the maybe the most reasonable suggestion of the three. Sherman does mention that Jeremy Guthrie owns a mediocre strikeout rate (5.63 career) that is in the midst of a three-year decline (down to 4.95 K/9 last year), so at least he is seeing Guthrie clearly. He is also a fly ball pitcher (46.5% last year, 40.8% career) that could benefit from leaving Camden Yards (1.185 park factor for home runs). Certainly his ballooning home run rate (1.58 last year, 1.30 career) would thank him. Sherman also mentions reasonable trade bait in Bobby Parnell and Ruben Tejada, as the Orioles could certainly use some middle infield prospects and an arm for the bullpen. They could also move Guthrie, considering they won’t compete that soon and he’s entering more costly arbitration years.
But would the Mets really want Guthrie? The dropping K-rate is worrisome, as is the fact that his flyball rate is going in the wrong direction. Most bothersome, though, is the fact that Guthrie’s fastball, which was an above-average pitch as late as last year, bottomed out in 2009. This with only a small drop in velocity (from 93.3 MPH to 92.4 MPH) and little or no drop in movement. Looking at his jump in contact rates (83% in 2008 to 87% in 2009), it just looks like hitters know what’s coming.
Maybe the National League won’t know what’s coming and he’d be rejuvenated. And the price seems reasonable, so kudos to Sherman for spotting this possibility. Unfortunately, the upside is severely limited on Guthrie, and he’s the most attainable of the three pitchers named today.
We’ll provide our own best guesses for Mets starting pitching options in the coming weeks.
