Buster Olney ranks the Mets as the fourth-most likely team to win the John Lackey Sweepstakes. This is on the heels of David Lennon saying that the Mets will be serious bidders on the Angel free agent as well.
According to Olney, the Angels’ first offer was a $72 million dollar package, but that doesn’t include the years so it’s hard to say what it might take to land the 31-year-old. According to FanGraphs’ player value calculator, which ties statistics to what those numbers are worth in free agency, Lackey has been worth about $110 million since he’s started pitching full seasons in 2003. That’s about $15 million a year, and it’s actually not a bad target for the Mets given his age and durability issues.
While Lackey has been consistent – in the last four years his K/9 has been between 7.09 and 7.86, and his BB/9 has been between 2.09 and 2.98 – there are some concerns regarding his health. Both of his last two seasons have begun in May, and he’s averaged about 170 innings in each season. Memories of Pedro Martinez might make the Mets a little reticent to sign the free agent, but there’s been no corresponding drop in stuff over the past two years. Had Lackey lost a pitch in his injuries (like Pedro lost his slider), his injuries would be more worrisome. There’s no real number that leaps out from his statistics as a harbinger of doom.
Don’t get it wrong – Lackey is obviously post-peak. Batters are making more contact on his pitches in the zone (91.3% last year, 89% career), his slider is down about three MPH from its peak (82.4 MPH last year, 85 MPH in 2005), and his curveball has lost about an inch of horizontal movement in the last three years. Lackey probably won’t return to the days of giving up a half a home run per game, either. His fielding independent pitching number shows he’s a high-threes ERA pitcher (3.73 FIP in 2009, 3.83 career), which means he’s better as a #2 than as an ace. Also slightly worrisome is the fact that the Angels aren’t leading a full-out blitz to keep him (unless that $72 million package was a four-year deal).
But let’s say it’s going to take four years and $60+ million, or 5 years and 75+ to get Lackey signed. He’ll get a little boost moving to the National League, and provided he stays healthy, he should be worth the contract. He would give the Mets a great #1/#2 combo at the top of their rotation. It’s a no-brainer around $15 million, right?
Looking at the payroll situation for the Mets in 2010, it looks like they have $93 million in contracts, plus about $15+ million in arbitration raises yet to be determined. Provided they approach the $140 million payroll from last year, that gives them about $30 million to play with in free agency. Spending half of their offseason budget on one player would be the Omar Minaya move – he’ll try to find cheap depth like he did last year, with castoffs young and old – but is it wise? Can he find a first baseman, catcher and left fielder with $15 million?
He’s supposedly flying down to Winter Ball to watch Carlos Delgado play (although what he’s going to learn there after seeing Delgado for over 1500 at bats in a Met uniform is unknown), and an incentive-laden one-year deal might get the Mets some cheaper veteran offensive firepower at first base. Average Delgado’s last three years (crude, I know) and you get around $7 million in value. I’d guess $7-10 million. A catcher like Ivan Rodriguez or Gregg Zaun might be do-able for $2 million or so.
So then the question remains – would you rather have John Lackey or have more than $5 million to spend on your new left fielder? At that price, you’re probably looking at a non-tender castoff. (Ryan Garko? Marcus Thames? We’ll investigate this more later.) We have to remember that this offense was decent in 2008, when the foundational players were all healthy. Put Lackey on the 2008 team, and they’d be in the postseason.With Johan Santana, Lackey, and John Maine heading up the rotation, they only need a decent offense to win a lot of games in 2010.
Minaya knows he has to win next year or his flaws (front office management, public appearances) will quickly outweigh his positives (trading & attracting top free agents). He also knows that he has to decide about a 2011 option for one of his main cogs, Jose Reyes. This team is built to win now, so the answer in regards to signing Lackey is a resounding yes. It’s 2010 or bust!
