Investigating Luis Castillo Trade Rumors

Yesterday Twitter was all a-tweet with the rumor that Luis Castillo was going to the Chicago Cubs, Milton Bradley was going to the Rangers and Kevin Millwood was on his way to Citi Field. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune was the first to report the rumor, which might make sense in the wake of news that Marlon Byrd is hitting free agency and the team could use an OF/DH type. Considering Bradley’s success in Texas, people felt the rumor had some legs. Today, the rumor was shot down by T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com who said that a Texas official said it wasn’t happening because Millwood was the Rangers’ #1 starter next year.

As unfortunate as that statement might be given the sorry state of affairs in the Texas rotation (Millwood should be a back-end option at this point in his career), a trade for Millwood would have been great for the Mets. Yes, his ERA was mostly luck-driven. Somehow he put up the best ERA in four years (3.67) despite also logging the worst strikeout rate of his career (5.57) and the worst home run rate in the last eight years (1.18). Consider that his fielding-independent pitching number (4.80) was also the worst of the last eight years. He benefited from his best BABIP in ten years (.279) and the best strand rate of his career (78.6%), and when those numbers go the other direction next year, his overall numbers will begin to look ugly once again.

So why would the Mets want him? For one, he’s a fairly reliable innings-eater, and Bill James projects him to pitch 175 innings next year (at a 4.30/1.40 pace), and that would have a place on a Mets’ staff that has struggled to fill the back end of their rotation for a couple years now (despite signing fringe arm after fringe arm). He gets people to reach (reach rate over 25% for the past four years), and he has a nice fastball/slider combination (both have been worth over 25 runs in his career). He has a decent groundball and flyball mix (43.1% and 34.7% respectively) that has stayed pretty steady over his career.

The reward is not great with Millwood, but the risk is also low – he’s been worth over $10 million dollars by FanGraphs’ calculations for the past five years. The odds are good that he’ll be worth over $10 million again, and he’s paid $12 million. With high-risk medium-reward players like Jonathon Niese and Oliver Perez and even John Maine in the rotation next year, having a known commodity like Millwood could help stabilize the back end of the rotation.

Would the Mets take Milton Bradley in a one for one? If it wasn’t for his 10-cent head, Omar Minaya might leap at the chance to acquire some offense for left field. There are some worrisome aspects to Bradley’s numbers, though. The bad batting average was not completely a result of luck (.311 BABIP in 2009, .330 career BABIP) and the precipitous drop in his slugging percentage (.242 ISO in 2008, .141 ISO in 2009) is probably the most troubling number. In his good year in Texas, Bradley had a 1.145 OPS at home (and a .651 slugging percentage) and a .872 OPS away from home (and only a .462 slugging percentage). A career ISO of .174 probably represents his upside in Citi Field, which would make him a .270/.380/.430 player in left field at best. Well, you know what – that’s better than the Mets got from left field in 2009 (.283/.346/.396). But is it so much better that the Mets need to sign up for Bradley’s tantrums?

An earlier rumor had catcher Chris Snyder from Arizona coming to the Mets for Castillo. Now we’re talking about a catcher with a career .233/.333/.398 line – and that trade got shot down by Arizona, too, as Joel Sherman reported in the NY Post.

Ouch. What’s the common thread here? The Mets are trying to trade Castillo and no one wants him. Big surprise for a second baseman that has been worth about $3 million less than the Mets have been paying him, has defense that has been clearly declining since he was in Florida and is now markedly below average, and now owns one skill – not swinging at any pitch whatsoever.

Perhaps that’s what led Jon Heyman to tweet this rather funny piece that we will leave you with:

things minaya can get for luis castillo: sunflower seeds, a donut, an assistant clubbie. what he cant get: kevin millwood.

Tags: John Maine, Jonathon Niese, Kevin Millwood, Luis Castillo, Marlon Byrd, Milton Bradley, Oliver Perez