Investigating: Jason Bay

With the news, reported by Jon Heyman on twitter, that Mets offered Jason Bay four years and $65 million on the last day of the Winter Meetings, its seems only right for us at GBB to investigate the corner outfielder and determine whether or not the offer was an astute one. It certainly didn’t blow the Red Sox’ purported offer of four years and $60 million out of the water, so perhaps Bay is approaching his best offer. Heyman felt it would take five years to pry Bay loose, though.

On offense, there’s not that much to complain about with Bay. If you forget his poor showing at the 2005 Home Run Derby and his overall poor 2007, he’s great at the plate. His average full season in the majors has produced 30.2 home runs, 99.3 RBI, and an average around .280. The Mets could obviously use that in left field, considering that they received 13 homers and 84 RBI from that position last year. So far, so good.

What about 2007? That year he hit .247 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. Those numbers would certainly not be worth an average annual value of $16.25 million. One this is for sure, he was not lucky that year. He had a BABIP of .298, which sounds fine until you put it up next to his career BABIP of .332 and his xBABIP of .312 given his groundball, flyball and line drive statistics that year. He certainly wasn’t very unlucky, but he didn’t enjoy his normal luck in other words.

But was there more going on that year? That was the only full year that he walked less than 10% of the time (9.9% in 2009, 12.9% career) and also the only year in a five-year stretch from 2005 to 2009 that he didn’t crack double digits in stolen bases (four that year). He also missed some time that year with a knee injury and put up his worst at-bat totals in that same five year span. So 2007 looks like an aberration.

Are there signs of decline? It doesn’t seem like it on the offensive side. Bay put up his career high ISO last year (.269), hit more fly balls than ever before (49.1% in 2009, 44.4% career), and more of those flyballs left the park than in any other season save one (19.7% HR/FB in 2009, 17.0% career). His line drive percentage, which hasn’t been great in the last four years, also has been creeping towards respectability (17.7% in 2009, 18.3% career). He has a slight weakness against the curveball and the splitfinger, but he can hit every other pitch with impunity.

In order to find warning signs, you have to be looking for them. Yes, his strikeout rate was a career high (30.5% in 2009, 27% career), but he made up for it with good power and it wasn’t part of a pattern. It just seems to happen with him every couple of years. His contact rates also dipped a little last year, which is of course related, but they had held steady for most of his career before last year. No, he looks good on offense.

The problem is his defense. It usually takes about three years for UZR stats to become significant (there are just fewer opportunities on the defensive end than the offensive one), so when a player puts up three straight years of negative defensive UZR ratings, it’s time to sit up and take notice. Over the last three years, Bay’s average UZR/150 is -13.6, which means he gives up almost a win and a half on defense every year (10 runs equates a win, roughly).

In fact, Bay has been one of the worst defenders in baseball over the last three years. FanGraphs did a survey and he came out as the fifth-worst defender in baseball in that span, and, fittingly ended the article with a warning towards National League teams wanting to sign him. It’s surprising to see a batter with some speed (66 career stolen bases) be so poor on defense, but his 5.0 four-component speed score is right on the average, so he’s more of a smart base runner than a base-stealer with speed. Another thing that should worry Mets fans is that Citi Field’s left field is cavernous compared to Fenway. What will Bay do with all that extra space to patrol? Citi Field is anywhere from 100 to 150 feet bigger in most spots in left field.

And then shudder to think about 2013 and Bay limping around out there like Gary Sheffield.

You’d have to say that the defense means that the Mets will be overpaying for Jason Bay if they sign him at these current dollar amounts, and certainly if they pay him more. It’s not a lock that Bay would have been worth the same $29 million if he’d played the last two years in Citi Field, and it’s even less of a lock that he will continue to be worth that much into his mid-30s.