Investigating Mark DeRosa

Today in a notebook, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe revealed that he’s heard that Mark DeRosa‘s contract demands have dropped to three years and $10 million. Suddenly, the super-utility player becomes interesting – he certainly wasn’t worth the three years and $27 million that he began the offseason requesting.

Last season, DeRosa combined passable defense at third base (-8.6 UZR/150) and passable offense (.250/.319/.433) to be worth about seven million dollars. Picking him up at $3 million per year seems like a no-brainer, especially since he could be a good platoon partner for Daniel Murphy. He’s been consistently better against lefties (.299/.368/.490) and can easily play first base and left field. He shows a little pop (.149 career ISO) that has developed recently (.196 and .183 ISOs the last two years). DeRosa has always walked well (8.6%) and doesn’t strike out much (19.1% career).

DeRosa had some rotten luck last year and could bounce back a little from his poor offensive line last year.  His BABIP (.286) was below his career number (.315) as well as his expected BABIP given his levels of line drives, ground balls, and stolen bases (.317). Add back in some dinks and dunks, and he should easily return to his customary .275/.343/.424 line. The Mets could use some offense like that, especially since it could come from multiple spots on the field and would help the Mets’ anemic offense versus lefties.

Then again, there are a lot of negatives to signing DeRosa. The most obvious is that he’s another veteran coming off an injury-plagued season. He could join the MASH unit and spend more time in the trainer’s office than on the field. We saw David Ortiz struggle all year with the same injury (tendon sheath) and he started with more power than DeRosa has ever shown. On the other hand, Ortiz suffered his injury in the middle of the season (June 3) and by the end of the season he showed some better power months (.516 SLG% after the all-star break). DeRosa will have the surgery this off-season and have time to recover. Though it’s concerning to teams and has helped depressed his value, DeRosa’s value is not so tied up in his slugging rate that this injury should keep him from being signed.

What could give prospective teams more pause is the fact that the 34-year-old is already declining. Also, since he debuted later and didn’t develop his power until he was 31, he could easily decline quickly. Research has shown that the performance bell curve tails off quicker for players that debut later. He could be precisely the kind of player that is valuable only during his peak, and overvalued thereafter.

Consider that between 2002 and 2005, when DeRosa was 27 through 30, his stats were worth a combined $100,000 on the market. That was when most players are peaking.

Looking at his recent full seasons, it seems that DeRosa will most likely approximate his 2007 stats, when he hit .293/.371/.420, and was worth approximately 5.8 runs with the bat. Combine that with some okay defense at first base and the outfield, he should easily approach a win of value (10 runs), which is worth more than $4 million on the open market. Paying him $3 million should produce a value, even if he is a super-sub that plays mostly against lefties and spells the future left fielder at times.

Just think, he’d only cost almost half as much as Luis Castillo.