Comments on: Pressure on Pelfrey in Pivotal Position

By: Richard Gross

Richard Gross — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 07:52:29 +0000

Craig, I can only imagine that the front office felt that Sheets and/or Harden presented too much of a risk–even on a one year deal.

But I have to agree that they both have amazing upside and a threesome of Santana-Sheets-Harden would have been fun to see.

By: Richard Gross

Richard Gross — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 07:45:16 +0000

James you make some very valid points and it’s true that a healthy Reyes in the field should make a considerable difference not only for Pelfrey but for the other pitchers as well. But Pelfrey’s HR/FB went up over 3% in ’09 and this was a significant issue along with the poor defense as you suggest. Unfortunately, even Reyes can’t defend a home run.

But crucial game situations was also Pelfrey’s undoing. Opponents batted .320 against him in high leverage situations as opposed to .265 in ’08. While shoddy play most likely contributed to some of the higher average, blame also falls on Pelfrey’s shoulders.

I do agree that improved defense will make a significant difference for Pelfrey, but he is going to have to bear down when the game is on the line as well. Let’s hope for both scenarios and and we will both be glad to see an improved Pelfrey in the upcoming season.

Appreciate your contribution and comments on the board James.

By: Craig

Craig — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 17:38:40 +0000

Unfortunately, if Mike Pelfrey is the Mets’ #2 starter, there will not be much to celebrate in 2010. At least I’ll know from Day 1 that I won’t have to worry about being crushed come August. Aside from a handful of starts in his career, I have not been impressed at all with his stuff or the results. The Mets should have been all over Ben Sheets and Rich Harden on short term deals. I really don’t know what they’re doing. I know those two are likely to get hurt but, damn, at least they provide some upside. What are we looking at now? Pelfrey, Ollie, Maine and Niese? That’s a joke, I’d rather stick the aforementioned injury prone guys in there and see what happens. I know the Mets signed Bay and that you can’t have EVERYTHING you ask for but, Sheets and Harden would not have cost that much considering its a short term deal. I’ve stayed off of the Omar Minaya hater’s bandwagon but, I’m getting ready to hop on.

Mets are looking at a third place finish and we should be happy if we get that because I would not be surprised if the Braves knocked us off and bumped us to fourth.

By: James

James — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 05:14:35 +0000

I don’t think we can ignore the Met team defense when looking at Pelfrey’s 2009 season. On the surface, it appears that he regressed a great deal, but I think the Met defense going from above average to miserable accounts for a lot of that perceived regression.

In 2008, the Met team UZR was +27.1, good for 7th in the major leagues. Pelf’s ERA was 3.72, with a 3.96 FIP. In 2009, the Met defense posted a -47.3, 29th in the majors. Pelf’s FIP was 4.39 (only 0.43 runs worse than the previous year), but his ERA bloated to 5.03 (1.31 runs worse), an ugly number.

It’s no coincidence that Pelf’s ERA was better than his FIP when the Met defense was good in 08, then the opposite situation took place when the Met defense was terrible.

To give another example about how Pelf’s defense failed him, consider that despite raising his ground ball percentage in 09 from 08, he actually got half as many double plays.

Peripheral/fielding independent wise, Pelf’s 09 was very similar to his 08. His walks and homers were up a bit, but so were his K’s. He gave up less line drives and induced more grounders.

That’s not to say there aren’t things Pelfrey can improve on. There is plently of room to get better. But I think that if the Met defense puts up a better effort (the left side of the infield should be better with the return of Reyes and hopefully a bounce back from Wright), then Pelf’s ERA will look much better.