Monthly Archives: March 2010

March 29, 2010

The Covert Position Battle: RF

By mfgz

In 2009, Fernando Martinez logged 14 games in RF for the Bisons and it appears that the Mets may be trying him out at all outfield positions.  With left field locked down by Jason Bay until at least 2013, and Carlos Beltran locked in at center field through 2011, right field seems the likely destination for the Mets prized outfield prospect.  It’s no secret that Francoeur is historically terrible at the plate, but it is a common misconception that he is a strong defender.  He does have a strong arm, but his RngR (range runs above average) has been on a sharp decline (3.7, -0.8, -7.7, -11.6) since his first full season in 2006.  The spacious confines of Citi Field may decrease his defensive value even further.  According to Fangraphs, CHONE predicts a 1.0 WAR season for Francoeur in 2010, good for about $4.4 mil in value.  The past 2 seasons, he posted a -1.2 and 0.1 WAR, respectively, so CHONE’s prediction seems a bit generous.

Omar Minaya has made it clear that Martinez will begin the season in AAA.  It would be prudent for management to get him a significant amount of work in right field.  After a couple hundred plate appearances in AAA, his bat should have him knocking on the door of the big leagues.  In AAA last year at the age of 20, he posted a triple slash of .290/.337/.540 with a .250 ISO and a .382 wOBA in 190 plate appearances.  If Beltran is back to full health by June, and Bay doesn’t catch the injury bug, then it is likely that a Martinez promotion will be dependent upon Francoeur’s health and/or performance.

By now, we would hope everyone is on the same page about Francoeur’s hitting.  A career triple slash of .271/.311/.432 is laughable at best for a proclaimed “RBI guy”, and a .317 wOBA reinforces the fact that he’ll be one of the worst starting RFs in the majors.  Comparing the above-mentioned stats with Pagan, you’ll see that Pagan has a career triple slash of .281/.331/.443 and a career .335 wOBA.  Add in a 7.1 speed rating and you have a better starting right fielder already on your roster; and that’s before you throw in Pagan’s career corner outfield UZR/150s: 14.9 in LF and 19.8 in RF.

Pagan likely will start in center until Beltran’s return, and then will be relegated to fourth OF duty, though the Mets may be better off using Pagan as a platoon mate for Francoeur.  Consider Pagan’s career splits versus RHP as a LHB (triple slash of .299/.350/.452; .153 ISO, .345 wOBA) vs Francoeur’s career marks against RHP (triple slash of .260/.300/.410; .150 ISO; .307 wOBA).  Francoeur fares much better against lefties for his career (triple slash of .298/.340/.487; .188 ISO; .347 wOBA).  It seems like an ideal platoon situation, even if it prevents Martinez from seeing significant at bats in 2010.

Do I dare try to think positively about Francoeur? In 2009, Francoeur managed to put more balls into play by both walking and striking out less.  Unfortunately, his line drive rate was only 1% higher than his career rate and he seems to be locked in around a 20% line drive rate.  He did decrease his ground ball rate 4.5% from his career mark while he increased his fly ball rate 3.5% from his career mark, which is a positive for the RBI potential coming from his spot in the order.  His HR/FB% could be very low again thanks to Citi Field, though many of those would-be-homeruns should land for extra base hits, not necessarily fly outs.  He also improved his contact rates on pitches both in and outside the zone, which is related to the decreased strikeout rate.  Admittedly, none of these “improvements” are free from regression and it’s been well documented that most of his success as a Met was BABIP driven, as his Met BABIP of .343 was about 40 points higher than his career mark.

I’ve been a bigger proponent than most of wanting to see Martinez promoted sooner than later.  He needs to accumulate as many at bats as possible, though I’ve questioned the negative impact it would have on him if he were in a strict platoon situation with Francoeur.  After reviewing Pagan’s splits, my desire to see Martinez before September is dwindling.  We are all too familiar with the injury bug, so fate may have Martinez up before we know it anyways.  A promotion could also be expedited if the Mets find themselves battling for a divisional lead during the summer months.  Following the logic that Omar and Jerry are fighting for their jobs, then the long-term impact of aggressive promoting wouldn’t be a priority; see Jenrry Mejia.  The breadth of said impact is probably up for debate, especially for a positional prospect of Martinez’s caliber, which, according to prospect rankings, seems to be a whole other debate in itself.  Adam Foster & co. of http://www.projectprospect.com, listed him as #10 on their top 100.  Settled, right?

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March 25, 2010

Daniel Murphy – Odd Man Out?

By Richard Gross

Spring training is winding down and important decisions are being made that will shape the upcoming season. More cuts were made by the Mets this week as they optioned Tobi Stoner, Nick Evans and Jason Pridie to Buffalo. Ike Davis was amongst that group that will be shuffling off to Buffalo as the Mets felt that he would benefit from more at bats at the minor league level. Davis made a lasting impression this spring hitting .480 in 25 AB’s with 3 home runs, despite never having a plate appearance higher than Double A. The Mets will be watching Davis closely since he is the future heir of first base forecasted for next season if not sooner. He has the potential to be a prototypical big thumper of a first baseman which is what the Mets desperately need since Carlos Delgado is no longer in the picture.

There’s a bevy of candidates that the Mets can slot in at first base in the meantime. Fernando Tatis is capable of playing the position and Frank Catalanotto is fighting for a bench spot but he too can play the bag. Mike Jacobs also has experience at the corner position and brings thunderous power but has holes in his swing. He has a 74% lifetime contact rate and a 23% strikeout rate so his bat could be considered a liability. And what’s nice about Jacobs is that he could fill in as an emergency backup catcher which is a nice lagniappe (favorite Cajun expression for a little something extra; a bonus). There’s also Chris Carter who is turning heads with his bat but not so much with his glove as Eno outlines here. But Daniel Murphy has the inside track on the position with 101 appearances at first base last season. He was defensively adequate and if you keep track of such things, had an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 4.7 runs above the average first basemen. But nobody will be confusing Murphy at any point in time with Keith Hernandez. In fact, Hernandez has spent time with the 25 year old Murphy to improve his skills at the position and perhaps it is paying off as Murphy has been perfect through 11 games and 91 total chances this spring.

But it’s not only Murphy’s glove that needs to perform well, it’s his bat too. Last year, he batted .266 with his stick and squeaked out a wOBA of .318. He managed to hit 12 home runs. While this doesn’t compare with the other power hitting first basemen in the game, it was more than most of his teammates were able to manage as a home run spotting for the Mets was about as rare as spotting a vegan sitting down for a meal at a Brazilian churrascaria. Spring has not been kind to Murphy as he has only been able to muster a .162 average and two extra base hits. However, spring is a time for tuning up as pitchers are usually ahead of the batters. Batters are working on their timing and with about two weeks left before the season opener, Murphy still has time to find his stroke.

Murphy will need to start the season strong and will be given a fair amount of latitude to succeed (or fail), but the aforementioned Davis is waiting in the wings and the performances of both players will dictate how soon that transition will occur. With luck, Murphy can fend off Davis for the full season, but his play will have to be above the level that we saw from him last year. Whether it’s this season or next season, Murphy will relinquish the position to Davis and then the question becomes what to do with Murphy? He played left field at the beginning of last season. Maybe he can play there? Oh, wait. There’s a guy named Bay out there now who just signed a long term contract. Murphy played a lot of third base in the minors. Maybe he can play there? Oh, wait. There’s a guy named Wright who plays there that practically has to be tied down to keep him out of the lineup even when baseballs are being launched at his head.

And then there’s second base. It’s a possibility that is intriguing and one that has been mulled over by management already. Murphy played some second while in the minors and may be able to perform with some degree of aptitude. However Luis Castillo is still there and despite the Mets’ best efforts, they have not been able to shed themselves of Castillo or his contract. If the Mets can move Castillo somehow, perhaps Murphy might be a consideration for second base, but his fielding may hinder him from excelling at the position and may prevent him from serious consideration.

Once Davis arrives, Murphy may be relegated to pinch hitting duties, an occasional first base start but he will essentially become a player off the bench. If it gets to that point, the best option for the Mets may be to trade him which may provide Murphy an opportunity with another team. But he essentially becomes a man without a position and may find himself on the outside looking in. For now, Murphy will be the guy at first base, but he has to know that not too far down the road his days are numbered as the starting first baseman and possibly numbered as a Met.

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March 24, 2010

Chris Carter Making Things Difficult

By Richard Gross

Chris_CarterPawtucket_Red_SoxFirst off, let’s smile a little. Jose Reyes is back on the playing field and says he’s ready to go. Ahhh…

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

You may have noticed that Chris Carter is the hottest hitter in Mets camp right now. His .446/.500/1.056 line is not only insane, it’s making it hard for the Mets to break camp without him. He’s hit three homers and two doubles in his 18 at-bats, and his competitors are playing terribly. Fernando Tatis has a .255 OPS (!). Mike Jacobs has a .208 batting average (though, to be fair, an okay .803 OPS). Ike Davis has been sent down. Is it time to take the cheapest option in camp and plug him in as the backup 1B/corner OF? It’s not really easy to see why not, especially given his .306/.380/.510 minor league line and cheap price tag.

Of course, there is one glaring flaw. Carter apparently has bricks for hands. MinorLeagueSplits.com has used TotalZone to rate him as a negative defender at every position in his minor league career, and subjective reports have also been unkind to him. If he gives back as many runs with the glove as he makes with his bat, he’s suddenly a little less exciting, even given his nice numbers in this small spring sample size.

Are the other options any better on defense? Fernando Tatis looks sort of done this spring, but his defense was a plus at three positions last year (1B, 3B, and OF) and he added runs with his glove. A year after going .282/.339/.438 he’s done?

Mike Jacobs, on the other hand, has been declining with the glove (-19.4 runs/150 games by UZR at 1B last year!) and it’s not clear why anyone is rushing to get his bat into the lineup either after last year (.228/.297/.401). He whiffs too often (30.4% last year), doesn’t walk (8.6% last year, 8.9% was league average) and he has bricks for hands. He shouldn’t be on the team. (Or any major league team, probably.)

The choice between Carter and Tatis, however, is a classic one. It’s the declining veteran with a major league contract battling the improving young slugger that is out of options. The wrinkle on the battle is that Tatis is the one that provides versatile defense and the rook is the one that can’t field to save his life. Given the fact that Tatis is 35, would see his defense decline naturally, isn’t a highly-paid veteran, and is struggling this spring, the guess is that Carter will force his way onto the team.

Whether or not his bat can overcome his defense and move him in front of Daniel Murphy on the depth chart is another question. Deride Murphy’s outfield defense as much as you’d like, but his glove is rated as a positive at first base by UZR, TotalZone and the Fan Scouting Report. That’s a trifecta that can’t be ignored. If he can recover his good walk rate from the 2007 (11.9%) and improve his line drive rate, Murphy is still the choice at first base. He won’t give back most of his runs with his glove, at the very least.

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March 18, 2010

Glass Half-Full: Mets' Rotation Trending Towards Bounce Back 2010

By Richard Gross

It’s time to put on our rose-colored glasses and take a look at the “Glass Half-Full”. Today, we’ll take a look at the Mets’ starting pitching staff and some plausible reasons why the rotation may be on an upward trend for 2010. It’s no secret that the Mets starting rotation last season was a hodge-podge of ineffective arms, simply trying to make it through a game without getting injured. The Mets were 14th in the N.L. in ERA, utilizing the likes of Tim Redding, Livan Hernandez and Pat Misch along with some other mediocre starters. Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, John Maine all had injuries that presumably hampered their effectiveness and Jerry Manuel had to rely heavily on Nelson Figueroa and Fernando Nieve to carry the weight. It was not a good season for Met pitching and who could blame any Met fan for being pessimistic about the outlook for the upcoming year. So let’s sprinkle at little pixie dust on the situation and take a look at some positive trends of hopefully what will be a better season.

One of my favorite statistics is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). These two statistics, when used together can help to identify possible trends of what to expect down the road. I’m not going to get into too much detail on these but you can read more about them here (FIP) and here (BABIP). In a nutshell, FIP measures a pitcher’s effectiveness on what he can control: strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed. It doesn’t take into consideration any fielding plays where a position player is involved. It’s useful to look at a pitcher’s FIP and ERA together and we can tell if this pitcher actually pitched better than his ERA would indicate. A pitcher who can dominate with a strikeout can take matters into his their own hands and that would definitely be reflected in the pitcher’s FIP. BABIP is all about the balls that the batter makes contact with that are in play. A hit, an out, a fly ball are all batted balls and as we know some batted balls are caught and some are not. A pitcher with an infield of Swiss cheese is going to take a beating on his BABIP while a pitcher with a fleet footed outfield is going to probably look better. But the main idea behind BABIP is that eventually the law of averages catches up with the player somewhere down the road and his luck will eventually normalize. .303 was the MLB average for BABIP last year and so we can use that as our benchmark to figure out if a pitcher was lucky or not. So by using these two stats, we can get a good idea of who was lucky and should have done worse, (a possible downward trend) and who was unlucky and deserved a better fate (a possible upward trend).

Now that we’ve laid the groundwork, let’s get to the potential pitching rotation for the Mets in 2010: Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Maine, Perez and we’ll assume that either Jonathon Niese or Nieve will grab the last spot. First, let’s look at Pelfrey’s FIP, BABIP and ERA last season.

Pelfrey

FIP

ERA

BABIP

Difference ERA/FIP
2009

4.33

5.03

0.321

-0.70
Last 3 Year Avg.

4.13

4.54

0.315

-0.41

When we compare Pelfrey’s FIP and ERA, we see that he actually pitched almost three-quarters of a run better than his ERA reflected. We also see that he was pretty unlucky with a BABIP of .321, compared against the .303 normalized figure. So with this data, we can probably expect Pelfrey to have a better year than last season. I threw in a 3 year average because getting that kind of history over the last 3 years is significant because a pitcher could have one season that’s an anomaly. For Pelfrey we see that his 3 year average FIP is still lower than his ERA and he has been more effective than his ERA would suggest. If we even compare last season’s ERA (5.03) to his FIP 3 year average (4.13), we can really see that Pelfrey could be due for a promising season.

Now we’ll look at the other 5 pitchers mentioned above and get their data.

Santana

FIP

ERA

BABIP

Difference ERA/FIP
2009

3.79

3.13

0.296

0.66
Last 3 Year Avg.

3.63

2.98

0.278

0.65

 

 

Perez

FIP

ERA

BABIP

Difference ERA/FIP
2009

6.27

6.82

0.315

-0.55
Last 3 Year Avg.

4.33

4.35

0.281

-0.02

 

 

Maine 

FIP

ERA

BABIP

Difference ERA/FIP
2009

4.48

4.43

0.253

0.05
Last 3 Year Avg.

4.21

4.10

0.271

0.11

 

Niese

FIP

ERA

BABIP

Difference ERA/FIP
2009

3.31

4.21

0.323

-0.90
Last 2 Year Avg.

4.13

4.55

0.346

-0.42

 

Nieve

FIP

ERA

BABIP

Difference ERA/FIP
2009

4.89

2.95

0.285

1.94
Last 3 Year Avg.

4.40

4.20

0.277

0.20

So what we see in the information above is that Santana could be due for a slight tick up on his ERA from last year but history also tells us that this is the way Santana rolls. Look how consistent the difference between his 3 year average and last year when comparing his ERA and FIP. Plus traditionally, Santana’s BABIP tends to be below the norm. With Perez, we can certainly expect improvement as his 3 year averages say he is better than what he was bringing to the mound in 2009. When not injured, Maine looks like his performance will be in line with last year but his BABIP is very low so we may actually see a slight regression. Niese (my candidate for the 5th starter) appears due for a solid upswing and is trending to an improved season if he gets the opportunity. And finally, Nieve…well, he looks like he was pretty undeserving on his fine ERA last year as his FIP was significantly higher and his BABIP was on the low side. If he makes it as the 5th starter, he may not be in the position for long.

Overall, this is good news. We see much of the rotation trending to what could be a more promising season or at the very least, staying the same. The rotation is obviously a cornerstone for success and if the injuries can be kept to a minimum, there is a least some promise of better things to come in 2010.

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March 13, 2010

Investigating Hisanori Takahashi

By Richard Gross

TakahashiA new crafty Japanese lefty named Takahashi pitched well today, and despite the mediocre results of signing Ken Takahashi last year (2.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.61 BB/9 and a release), there might be some surprising results with the new version. So let’s take a look at Hisanori Takashi and what he could provide.

Firs off, we say ‘crafty’ but he did hit the 90s today with his fastball, so he’s no mid-80s Jamie Moyer type. He seems to feature a high-80s fastball that can crack 90 MPH, which he throws as often as his low 80s MPH sinker. His everything-and-the-kitchen-sink repertoire also includes an 85 MPH cutter, a low-80s MPH slider, and a curveball that doesn’t even break 70 MPH. If not for the fastball, this would sound like Moyer + Daisuke Matsuzaka. But, for the most part, it’s sinker/fastball. Check this great chart from NPBTracker to see his mix graphically!

His stats in Japan don’t inspire the most confidence. He only had a career 7.3 K/9, his career WHIP was only okay at 1.26, and in nine seasons, he only averaged about 128 innings per season. Hmmm… so why are we interested? Well, that WHIP was inflated by hits per nine (8.9 H/9), not walks (2.4) so in some ways he’s the anti-Ken-Takahashi. He can hit the strikezone, and from the spring results, it looks like he has control to every part of the zone. Might be a refreshing thing given the other, non-Johan-Santana members of the Mets staff.

It’s hard not to get too excited about his spring training results so far. He has tended to get in the game late and play against the younger players on the field, but… still. Check ‘em out: six innings, nine strikeouts, no walks, two hits. Small sample size, small sample size, small sample size.

One thing you CAN take away from the spring training stats is that the Mets had him go three innings today. That sounds like they are stretching him out for the fifth starter role. Combined with Jonathon Niese‘s struggles (4.2 IP, 5 Ks, 4 BBs, 6 Hs, 7.71 ERA), we might have the Mets’ new fifth starter here. Given how much GodBlessBuckner has been banging the drum for Niese, you might expect us to be more upset, but there doesn’t seem to be too much downside to optioning Niese for the first month at least. It’s not like Oliver Perez, John Maine and Mike Pelfrey have strangleholds on their jobs.

And until the real games start, we may not know exactly what we have with THIS crafty Japanese lefty named Takahashi.

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March 11, 2010

Spring Training Brings Surprises and Concerns

By Richard Gross

Spring training is in full swing and a number of issues and concerns are on the table as well as some nice surprises and positive trends that have emerged early on. Let’s take a look at the pleasant problems the Mets are facing and what they might do about the more serious concerns and questions that still need to be addressed.

The Good Stuff

Some early indications have shown that David Wright’s approach at the plate may be taking a change for the better compared to last season. He has already hit 2 home runs in 13 AB’s and has only struck out once. It looks like the work that he did with Howard Johnson during the winter appears to be bearing fruit. Granted, it’s spring training, the pitching is not major league-ready and Tradition Field is not CitiField, but these are still good signs that he is driving the ball.

Prospects Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez have been impressive batting .583 and .526 respectively while hitting 2 home runs apiece. The mildly disappointing part is that both players will probably not make the opening day team and will be sent to triple A. It’s a shame because Davis will no doubt be the first basemen of the future but the Mets will be more inclined to give Daniel Murphy the opportunity to fail or succeed and allow Davis more time to ripen.

Martinez, on the other hand, is close if not already major league ready and with Carlos Beltran on the mend, it would be a great time for the Mets to put him out there and see what he could do. Unfortunately, the small financial commitment the Mets have made to Gary Matthews Jr. and his experience puts him ahead of Martinez to make the team along with Angel Pagan. If the Mets could move Matthews this spring (easier to do since it’s on the Los Angeles Angels’ dime), Martinez could share the centerfield duties with Pagan until Beltran is healthy. But this is a transaction that is doubtful to happen and Martinez will probably be one of the last players cut come opening day.

The Concerning Stuff

Jose Reyes has been diagnoses with Graves’ disease and while this is treatable, it does throw a kink in the schedule for him to make the opening day roster. The timetable for his return is vague (8 weeks?) as the media relations department for the Mets indicated that “Jose’s treatment plan is to rest, refrain from athletic activity and make changes in his diet”. Mets’ Medical Director Dr. David Alchek is going to monitor Reyes’ blood levels through regular tests and once his thyroid levels are back to normal, he will be cleared to get back out on the field. So it appears that the first game of the season probably feature Pagan/Matthews in center and Alex Cora/Ruben Tejada at short. Not exactly substantial replacement players for Beltran and Reyes. Here’s a quick look at these players Runs Above Replacement (RAR) player to get an idea what is lost without Beltran and Reyes in the lineup.

Player RAR
Pagan 28.0
Matthews -8.1
Cora -0.7
Tejada -0.9
Beltran 29.2
Reyes 7.4

Keep in mind that Reyes was out most of the year but Pagan was very productive in his limited role. It’s easy to see that the other players listed above really don’t hold up to the contributions that Reyes and Beltran make. Let’s hope that the plan and treatment for Reyes is effective so that he can back on the diamond quickly.

Another issue that has become more prominent is the 8th inning setup role and who will hand the 9th over to Francisco Rodriguez. Kelvim Escobar, who was initially penciled in as the guy, still has not been able to resume any type of baseball duties that would even remotely make him a candidate for the job. So who do the Mets turn to to fulfill the spot? I’ll provide you with small list of possibilities for the role and they are Bobby Parnell, Ryota Igarashi, Hisanori Takahashi and Jenrry Mejia. The most intriguing choice of the 4 is Mejia. Mejia has been practically unhittable in the games he has pitched so far but he is a raw talent and throwing him into 8th inning pressure situation may not be the best introduction to the big leagues. I suspect that Mejia, despite his impressive outings, will find himself on the same flight to Buffalo with Davis and Martinez when spring training ends. But Manuel is strongly considering Mejia as an option and if he continues to dominate the hitters he has faced, he would be difficult to deny him a spot in the bullpen.

Igarashi and Takahashi are also interesting choices with quite a bit of baseball experience just not in the Major Leagues. It’s hard to know how the Japanese stats would translate to MLB but some analysis suggests that you can usually expect around a 30% increase in ERA and 15% decrease in strikeouts and interestingly enough a 5% decrease in walks (I guess Japanese players are far more patient). This would mean that based upon last year’s statistics in Japan, Igarashi would project to have a 5.40 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Takahashi wouldn’t fair any better with a 5.41 ERA, 5.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Obviously, this formula is speculation and I would venture to say that both pitchers would perform better than that but it appears that the Japanese imports may not be the best choices initially for the 8th inning until some consistency is established with big league hitting.

Parnell made 30 appearances last year in the 8th inning and had good success keeping hitters to a .213 BA in that frame. The problem with Parnell is that he hasn’t been able to harness that 96 mph fastball and bases on balls has been his undoing last year allowing 4.7 BB/9. One can only hope that experience brings improvement and we see more command over his pitches to be that setup guy.

Certainly, this is an open issue that will more than likely remain open until the season starts and more probable into the season as Jerry Manuel may try out different pitchers to handle the 8th. Manuel may mix and match and experiment looking for the right combination. After all, we know how Manuel likes to experiment. However, the sooner roles are defined for the pitchers, the better. It’s always beneficial when a pitcher knows his role so he can prepare both mentally and physically to enter the game at his designated time. But with too many unclear choices, it will probably be a case of trial by error.

So let’s hear what you think. Is David Wright’s home runs a good sign of things to come or do you think he will be psyched out by the cavernous gaps and high walls of CitiField? Would you have Martinez and/or Davis make the opening day roster and finally, who would you like to see be the 8th inning setup guy? Parnell? Mejia? Or some other choice? The phone lines are open. Let’s hear from you.

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March 10, 2010

Jason Bay Power Update

By Richard Gross

Of course it wasn’t as bad as we thought. The tool I used to show Jason Bay’s home runs in Citi Field did not use the “true” landing spots for his Fenway home runs. Instead, it basically just showed where they went over the wall.

HitTrackerOnline projects the landing spot for the ball, which is a much more accurate way to describe a home run. Take a look at Bay’s home runs from last year on Citi Field’s dimensions. Sorry about the picture, it could be better looking.

BayCITI2

Yeah, so Bay might lose two or three home runs to Citi Field next year. Expect him to hit close to 30 and be a nice stabilizing force in that lineup.

And it does usually pay to do your own work, eh?

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March 7, 2010

Jason Bay Power Problem

By Richard Gross

After zooming around on the interwebbings while nursing my hangover, I noticed that everyone was playing with this fun new tool, and so I had to just join in. Katron.org has created a tool that allows you to show a player’s hits from one park on top of the map of another park.

Of course, I just HAD to see what Jason Bay would have done in Citi Field last year. The results were disastrous.

Jason Bay in Fenway:

bayfen

Jason Bay’s Fenway home runs mapped onto Citi Field:

BayCiti

That’s right. Jason Bay would have hit two home runs in Citi Field last year according to this tool… Let’s hope that Fenway is so strange that it screws up mapping tools like this, because it’s hard to tell if the Fenway home runs are plotted at their ‘true’ distance, or where they would have actually landed if there were no stands. It’s hard to swallow that Bay is a Fenway product given the fact that he’s performed well in many different stadiums. Looking at his numbers, he’s had a steady .225+ ISO everywhere he’s been, and his power didn’t spike too much in Boston. Perhaps the strongest thing we can take from these pictures is that it might be safer to side with the more pessimistic power projections (27 home runs from Marcel).

Oh, and because we were talking about David Wright‘s power problems, here’s a map of his doubles, triples and home runs in Citi Field last year – mapped on Shea. It seems to show that last year was just a strange year for Wright, and that Citi only ‘stole’ 2-3 home runs from him.

WrightCitionSheaIf you are a fantasy player and are wondering how Target will play, katron.org also has a three-part series on that stadium, with conclusions that contradict most early reports that the new Twins’ home park will play like a hitters’ park.

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March 5, 2010

Forget Who's on First. Who's Pitching and at the Plate?

By Richard Gross

Spring training has begun down at the Mets’ camp in Port St. Lucie and with it comes the hope of new beginnings. The atmosphere is loose and the breeze is gentle in the Florida sun. The tiki bar down the third base line at Tradition Field is an inviting place to watch the game while having a cold one. The people are friendly and even the picnic area beyond the right field fence has its share of spectators watching the game while lying lazily on the grass. It’s a wonderful time to follow the decisions and moves that will help to shape and define the season leading into April.

The funny thing about spring training games is that it’s a revolving door of player changes and a scorekeeper’s worst nightmare. It’s a good thing the games don’t really count. And some of you have probably taken a glance at the Mets’ box score the past couple of days to find out how your favorite players are doing. Some of you probably have wondered if you were even looking at the correct box score because of so many unfamiliar names of players that make their way into games during spring training. So I thought it might be a good time to go over some of the players that are in Port St. Lucie who may be off the radar. Sure we know all about Jason Bay, David Wright and Oliver Perez, but what about all of those rookies and non-roster invitees? So let’s spend some time to get acquainted with a few of the cast of characters that are competing for positions and hoping to earn a roster spot.

Jack Egbert – Pitcher – Throws: Right – Bats: Left — Age: 26

Jack Egbert came to the Mets via the White Sox when he was claimed off waivers last September. He was a former top prospect with Chicago and finally managed to make his major league debut last season, pitching a couple of games and ending up with a 27.00 ERA. Egbert has also struggled in his time at the AAA level but has done better in the lower divisions in the minors. He has a very good sinker that hits the radar gun in the high 80’s and has a decent change that will give hitters another pitch to think about. Perhaps the best attribute about Egbert is his ability to keep the ball on the ground.

Clint Everts – Pitcher – Throws: Right – Bats: Right — Age: 25

Clint Everts became a minor league free agent at the end of 2009 after spending 7 seasons in the National’s farm system. He was the #5 overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft by the Montreal Expos (remember them) and has yet to break into the majors. He put together a pretty nice 2009 which saw him bounce from A+.,AA, and AAA while compiling an overall 8-1 record, 1.65 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The word out is that after several years of struggling, Everts’ fast ball has picked up its velocity once again and has a curveball and outstanding change. If he impresses in spring training, he could be a sleeper to make the club.

Eddie Kunz – Pitcher – Throws: Right – Bats: Right — Age: 23

Eddie Kunz is a name that many people will recognize as the Mets #1 choice in the 2007 supplemental draft. The Mets knew that they were drafting a guy who was slated as a pure reliever and possible closer for the future. The big right hander has a mid 90’s fastball that has some nice sink to it that will induce a lot of swings and misses and groundballs. But he has a poor change and has not been able to establish any type of effectiveness against lefties. This is Kunz’s biggest issue with becoming a potential closer and seems more suited for a future set up role. The heat is on Kunz who is on the verge of slipping as one of the Mets more promising prospects and needs to step it up this year in Triple A. He isn’t off to a great start in his first appearance in spring training allowing 4 earned runs in a 0.1 innings.

Tobi Stoner – Pitcher – Throws: Right – Bats: Both — Age: 25

If you were paying close attention to the Mets towards the end of the season (and if you weren’t, you could hardly be blamed for checking out early), one of the Mets minor league call-ups was Tobi Stoner, a 16th round amateur draft choice in 2006. He appeared in 4 games in ’09 for the Mets, pitching 9 innings with no decisions and a 4.00 ERA. Stoner possesses 4 decent pitches with the velocity on his fastball topping out in the high 80’s. What Stoner really has going for him is excellent control and the ability to throw consistent strikes. While he isn’t at the top of the Mets’ prospect list, Stoner could be a useful add-on to the bullpen at some point in the season because managers love a guy who can come into a ball game and get the ball over the plate.

Jay Marshall – Pitcher – Throws: Left – Bats: Left — Age: 27

The Mets acquired Jay Marshall back in January as a waiver claim from the Oakland A’s. Marshall is a wiry left-handed submarine style pitcher who can be effective against left-handed hitter but doesn’t have amazing stuff. He does induce a large amount of ground balls which has keep his home runs way down and he has put together a tidy 2.85 ERA over the course of 6 seasons in the minors. Marshall will probably be getting some time on the mound this spring and is certainly a relief pitcher that is worthy of taking a closer look at it.

Shawn Bowman – Third base – Throws: Right – Bats: Right — Age: 25

Shawn Bowman came to the Mets organization via the 2002 amateur draft as the Mets 12th pick. Some of the shine has left Bowman the past few years and he has yet to establish a consistent offensive approach to the plate, lacking plate discipline but he does possess plus power. He’s had back injuries in the past that unfortunately has slowed his development but his defensive skills remain some of the best in the organization as he started out as a shortstop. Bowman’s biggest problem with trying to make the big club is that there is some guy named Wright that is blocking his way who I don’t think is going anywhere.

Jason Pridie — Centerfield – Throws: Right – Bats: Left — Age: 26

Jason Pridie was originally drafted by Tampa Bay as a 2nd round choice (43rd overall) in the 2002 amateur draft. He was acquired by the Twins in a rule 5 draft and then sent back to the Rays and back again to the Twins. The Mets acquired Pridie off of waivers last month and should get a good look in spring training. The book on Pridie has him regarded as a free swinger and has hit .276 in 8 seasons in the minors. The lack of discipline has prevented him from having a good OBP (.319) but he has been able to steal 153 during his minor league career. He has excellent defensive skills, a strong arm and good base running abilities which makes him a decent candidate for a 4th or 5th outfield spot. We’ll see what he is able to do in Port St. Lucie but he is a good back-up option to have on a squad.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – Centerfield – Throws: Right – Bats: Left — Age: 22

Here’s a guy to keep an eye and track his progression. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (say that 10 times fast) is a fast riser in the Mets farm system having been drafted in the 3rd round (100th overall) of the 2008 amateur draft. He’s a fleet-footed centerfielder who covers a lot of ground with some good power and speed. Last year splitting his time between high A and AA ball, Nieuwenhuis was able to crack 17 homers and steal the same number of bases. One area needing improvement for Kirk is his ability to make contact. If he able to improve that he should be close to a .400 OBP guy (.364 OBP in ’09) as he has shown solid plate discipline.

Ike Davis – First Base – Throws: Left – Bats: Left — Age: 23

Highly doubtful that you haven’t heard about this guy, but if you haven’t you better get used to his name. Ike Davis is currently penciled in as the future first baseman of the Mets and from the reports has all the tools to be a big thumper with 35+ home run potential. He’s already made his presence know in spring training with a .750 batting average and a home run. The first round draft choice (18th overall) has a smooth swing and plays a solid first base defensively with a good arm. He has had some difficulty repeating his swing consistently which exposes holes in his hitting but some additional seasoning at AAA should help with that. He’ll probably be hanging around quite a bit for spring training and get exposure to big league hitting, but expect him to start the year in AAA, but could be a call-up in 2010 depending on how the season goes.

Obviously this is far from a complete list of players that are competing for spots, but just a sampling of some of the guys who’ll be getting into games. There are many other names that you’ll see in the box score, Hisanori Takahashi, Jesus Feliciano, Russ Adams and some older, but familiar names like Josh Fogg, R.A. Dickey and newly acquired Kiko Calero. We’ll see how the spring develops and revisit some of the players that we haven’t covered that are still competing for roster spots, but this will certainly get you started.

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March 2, 2010

This Spring, Mets Need to Minimize Distractions

By Richard Gross

Is this really what the Mets need? Just two days after Jose Reyes is questioned by the FBI for his association with Canadian doctor Tony Galea, Carlos Beltran is the next player that the Feds want to talk to. We are not one day into spring training and the distractions and the suspicions begin. And somehow the Mets are supposed to stay focused and prepare for a season where there are a great number of jobs on the line.

But this is typical March fodder where we get to spend more time talking about the sordid details of things that are happening off the field than on the field. The past couple of spring trainings we have been blessed with the topic of two collapses and the psychological affects of those downfalls. We have endured a financial scandal where we all learned the difference between a Ponzi scheme and Ponzu sauce. And we put up with the typical back and forth jabs that go on between other teams in the division proclaiming they’re “the team to beat”. All of this “noise” seems to generate a whirlwind of controversy that follows the Mets like indigestion after eating bad Mexican food. When really all the Mets should be doing is figuring out how to put the best 25 guys together that’s going to help erase the ugly blemishes of past seasons.

Enough of blaming Tony Bernazard for ruining the Mets farm system, it’s time to look forward. Enough of blaming him for developing the 80 pitch go-the-opposite-way drill that apparently was the bane of the Mets entire season which played with David Wright’s head and haunted his dreams the entire winter. There must have been some other person (Manuel?, Minaya?) who thought Bernazard’s idea was a good one. Do I get to blame Bernazard for my car breaking down yesterday (I can’t believe I am actually defending Bernazard)? But the point being is that this team, for some reason, has more drama that circulates around them than a 16 year-old teenage girl with unlimited text messaging. The team has been a complete soap opera for too long and “As the Mets Turn” is not going to get the kind of ratings any Met fan wants. The distractions are abundant and the focus is little.

The Mets have far too much on their plate this spring to worry about anything off the field. They need to reestablish some credibility with the baseball community and most important their fans. There’s the issue of staying healthy. There’s the matter of trying to figure who the 5th starter will be and who will take over the setup role since Kelvim Escobar is nowhere near prepared to pitch. There’s the task of trying to re-learn how to turn on a hanging breaking ball and pull it down the line for extra bases rather than poking it the other way. So let’s hope that the FBI questioning is no more than a minor distraction and that Beltran’s connection with Galea is only about healing his injured knees and if HGH enters the conversation, it exits quickly and leaves no suspicions. Or that the only thing Reyes was involved with was a little blood “spinning” that helped to speed up his recovery and nothing more devious. Because the last thing any Met fan needs is another reason to feel embarrassed by the “games” that are being played off the field by this team. Here’s hoping the focus stays between the foul lines.

Oh, and by the way, did you see that Reyes hit a triple in his first spring training at-bat?

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