Monthly Archives: May 2010

May 30, 2010

When Will French(y) Fly?

By Richard Gross

Mets Francoeur BaseballJeff Francoeur continues to battle a slump that has now extended for about a month and a half. Through the first 10 games of the season, Francoeur had been a man possessed, batting .457 and—get this—walking 7 times. We should have known right then and there that this Francoeur was an impostor and that there was really no way that that kind of hitting and plate discipline would continue.

Since April 17th, the day of that 20 inning marathon between the Cardinals and the Mets, the day that Francoeur went 0-for-7, the Mets’ lineup has essentially consisted of 7 position players because Francoeur’s bat is nowhere to be found. The ugly, ugly numbers show a slash line since then of .154/.201/.231 in 130 AB’s.

Putting our stat-hat on for just a minute, if we compare Francoeur’s performance so far this year, he would have a RAR (runs above average replacement player) of -2.5 and a WAR (wins above average replacement player) of -0.3. In other words, the Mets would not have to look very far to find someone who can outperform Francoeur as he is hindering the team more than helping. The Mets owe him $5.0 million this year and and it wouldn’t be unfair for the Mets to ask for their money back. And while we’re at it, Oliver Perez is another one who should be hanging his head all the way to the bank as he cashes in on his $36.0 million contract. But we’ll save that discussion for another day.

There was an article printed on ESPN that mentioned that Jerry Manuel had called Francoeur into his office for a talk prior to Saturday’s game against the Brewers. Apparently, Manuel told Frenchy to “tune out all the voices”. I’m assuming the “voices” that Francoeur needs to tune out are the countless people that are giving him hitting advice and not some voice like Shoeless Joe Jackson speaking to him from a cornfield. Or perhaps the whisper voices that the LOST castaways heard in their island paradise. That would raise far more concerns than a .226 batting average.

So we can only assume that Francoeur is over-thinking. He is not staying within himself and he is pressing. That’s sometimes tough to tell on Francoeur since normally a batter who is pressing tends to reach for pitches out of the strike zone or tries to be more aggressive at the plate. But Francoeur swings at the first pitch over 60% of the time and he widens the strike zone anyway. Although this season he seems to be reaching a little more with a 44% rate compared to career average of 37%. But in any case, poor plate discipline is the norm for him irregardless.

The larger problem that’s more easily identifiable is that his line drive rate is…well let’s call it like it is, pathetic. He hits line drives only 11% of the time. This is 8% lower then his career norm and this is having the biggest impact on his poor hitting along with popping up the ball more than 18% of the time. To put it simply, he’s just not squaring up on the ball and his pitch recognition is off.

What the future holds for Francoeur is uncertain. Since, Carlos Beltran is still on the mend and Beltran’s return seems to be a moving target that keeps moving deeper and deeper into the season, the Mets need Francoeur’s bat to contribute. The talk with Manuel seemed to have helped on Saturday as Francoeur went 2-for-3 with a walk and has put together a modest 3-game hit streak, batting .400 during that short time. It’s not a lot, but it’s a spark that we can hope gathers momentum.

So whatever, voices or non-voices Francoeur has been listening to or not listening to over the past few games, let’s hope that he keeps it up. Otherwise, the Mets may find themselves turning to Chris Carter more and more and Francoeur could find himself on the bench when (if?) Beltran comes back.

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May 26, 2010

How Do the Met Pitchers Stack Up Against Quality Hitters?

By Richard Gross

We got our very first taste of Interleague play this past weekend with the Mets taking on the Yankees at CitiField. All in all, the Mets faired well, taking two of three and got some solid pitching performances from starters Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana. They were able to effectively keep much of the potent Yankee lineup in check, which led me to ponder the blessings and curses of Interleague play from the Mets perspective. Let’s face it, when the Mets can take a series from the Yankees, it’s at least cause for Met fans to hold their heads up high and have some pride in their team—at least for a little while. But when things don’t go the Mets’ way, we lament the unfairness of Interleague play, “Why do the Mets always have to play the Yankees two times every season? I don’t see the Phillies having to take on the World Champions as part of their regular season ritual.”

No Interleague is not fair. The schedule and match-ups are unbalanced, although it serves as a great marketing tool for MLB. From that standpoint, it works. Granted, it would be easier for the Mets to move to Toledo, Ohio and take on the Cleveland Indians every year, but that’s not the hand that’s been dealt and if the Mets are to be the talk of the town and grab the back page headlines, they have to take the fight to the baseball diamond where it counts. Fair enough.

But just how tough is the competition the Mets have to face compared to Phillies or other teams in the league? The Cub pitchers, being in the same division as the Cardinals, have to face Albert Pujols on a regular basis. That’s no picnic. Glad the Mets only play the Cardinals 6 times a year. But the Mets have their own problems, because they have to face the likes of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez and long-time Met killer Larry “Chipper” Jones on a pretty regular basis. Choose your poison.

So let’s break this down and take a look at the Mets pitching staff this year and identify not only what batters are hitting off of Met pitchers but also the quality of the hitters they face. First, take a look at this chart and then I’ll go into more detail about the numbers.

Pitcher

AVG

OBP

SLG

Q-AVG

Q-OBP

Q-SLG
Johan Santana

.243

.291

.364

.263

.339

.403
Francisco Rodriguez

.193

.284

.313

.257

.330

.401
Hisanori Takahashi

.235

.321

.348

.256

.331

.403
John Maine

.297

.398

.506

.256

.335

.409
Raul Valdes

.255

.308

.408

.255

.331

.400
Fernando Nieve

.215

.357

.380

.253

.326

.404
Oliver Perez

.269

.404

.440

.251

.328

.396
Jenrry Mejia

.278

.387

.392

.250

.327

.390
Jonathon Niese

.322

.392

.460

.249

.329

.390
Mike Pelfrey

.258

.325

.378

.246

.325

.394

The three columns after the pitcher’s name are pretty straight forward. They represent the batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage of opponents against that particular pitcher. We see that Francisco Rodriguez, so far, has been the toughest to get a hit off of with opponents batting average of .193 and Jonathon Niese has been hit pretty hard at .322. John Maine has been more prone to give up extra base hits with an opponent slugging of .506 and once again K-Rod has kept the extra base damage down to a minimum.

The last three columns represent the aggregate batting average (and OBP and SLG) of all of the hitters that pitcher has faced. “Q-AVG” stands for Quality Average which represents the quality of the batters that that particular pitcher has faced.

Let’s give an example. Hypothetically, let’s say that Santana is facing a team where every one of the batters, from top to bottom, is batting exactly .300. This would be a good hitting lineup and the aggregate batting average against this team would be .300. So the Q-AVG would be .300 which represents the difficulty of these hitters that Santana has to pitch to. If Santana were to hold this team to 6 hits after facing 25 batters, his opponent average would be .240. We can then identify that Santana did a really nice job containing this offense to just 6 hits when normally they would have done better since the overall quality of the hitters showed that they were .300 hitters. . But when we are talking about Q-AVG, we are not talking about just one lineup, but rather the collective aggregate averages of all the hitters Santana has faced so far this season.

So what conclusions can we draw from this? Santana, Rodriguez and Takahashi are the three Met pitchers who have faced the highest average of quality hitters. And it appears for all three pitchers that the numbers they have produced are lower than the Q-AVG, Q-OBP, Q-SLG, indicating they have done very well. Pelfrey has faced the lowest quality hitters at .246 and his opponent batting average of .258 suggest that he has not been doing as good of a job keeping them in check. But he has done well in the Q-SLG department keeping extra base hits lower than the slugging average of his collective opponents. John Maine has been mauled in the Q-SLG category and Jonathon Niese has been far too easy to hit in every category compared to the quality of batters he has been up against.

To help put this into context, of all pitchers in the N.L. who have pitched more than 50 innings, Zach Duke of Pittsburgh has faced the highest quality of hitters with a Q-AVG of .265. However, he has not done well as opponents are hitting .309 against him this year. Johan Santana is third on the list with his Q-AVG of .263, behind Jon Garland of the Padres (Q-AVG of .264). So we see what Santana has been able to achieve is very good when you consider the quality of hitters he has had to face.

Conversely, Bronson Arroyo (Q-AVG.234/ AVG.242), Brad Penny (Q-AVG.237/AVG.293) and Josh Johnson (Q-AVG .239/ AVG .201) have faced the lowest quality of hitters in the N.L. Lucky them.

Based upon the chart, we can derive some ideas about how good, poor or just plain lucky some pitchers have been. The data is subjective and can be interpreted a multitude of ways. Perhaps as the season moves along, Santana won’t face quite the quality of hitters he has been facing and therefore his ERA will improve. Perhaps because of his ace status, managers from other teams will continue to roll out their best hitters rather than give them a rest day knowing they will need to generate as many run opportunities against Santana as they can. Or perhaps he’s just gotten some bad luck thrown his way and he has managed to perform better than the collective average of these hitters, which reinforces Santana’s overall excellence.

But one thing we can confirm is that baseball is not always a fair game. Some teams will somehow avert having to face Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum where other teams will have to face them two, maybe three times before the season is over. Some teams are in a weaker division. Some teams have the DH. Some teams will get a break because their opponent’s best hitter is on the DL or in a slump. And yes, some teams have to face a cross-town rival, with the highest payroll in baseball on a regular basis as their cross to bear through a long season. It’s not always fair but the game is definitely perfectly imperfect (or is that imperfectly perfect?—You decide.)

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May 24, 2010

SP Stat Trends: Takahashi, Pelfrey, Santana

By mfgz

We’re going to start a new series (name pending), after each series, detailing the start-to-start change in some key metrics for the Mets’ rotation arms.  The premise of this series is simply to monitor some of the stats that are often “luck” indicators.  I use quotes around luck, because too often we (or at least me) refer to any statistical anomaly as unsustainable or luck.  The trick is to find changes that are sustainable…like Mike Pelfrey’s k/9…we hope.

Friday’s starter, Hisanori Takahashi, pitched a gem in his first MLB start.  Pitching out of the pen he had compiled a k/9 over 11, allowing very few home runs and stranding runners just under 80% of the time.  After his start on Friday, his k/9 dipped and his BABIP began it’s descent from .342.  His 2.56 FIP suggests that his 2.53 ERA, though extremely low, is not entirely a fluke. His 3.0 hr/fb is sure to regress towards the league average, and his expected FIP, or xFIP, which supplements FIP with a league average hr/fb%, rests at 3.56 for the season.  Takahashi could prove to be a very capable starter, but it is unquestionably too early to make any predictions based off of any of these metrics.

Takahashi k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob % gb% hr/fb era fip xfip
after 5/21 10.69 4.22 0.28 0.332 81.3 35.1 3.0 2.53 2.56 3.56
to 5/21 11.42 4.85 0.35 0.342 78.0 32.8 4.0 3.12 2.69 3.51
career 10.69 4.22 0.28 0.332 81.3 35.1 3.0 2.53 2.56 3.56

Mike Pelfrey continued his dominant performances thanks to a splitter that keeps generating whiffs.  His k/9 is still above 6 and remains to be one stat I am very interested in this season as a Met fan.  It’s a full point higher than his career average while all other metrics seem right in line, aside from the increased strand rate.  His LOB% should still be higher than normal thanks to that higher k rate and theconsistent 50% gb rate.  Hopefully a healthy Reyes will keep more balls in the infield, helping Pelfrey strand more runners off of ground balls.  Pelfrey’s xFIP of 4.01, though 40 points higher than his FIP, is outstanding for him, and helps solidify the fact that he hasn’t been overtly lucky, and since he’s never given up many homeruns to begin with, his xFIP is always going to be a bit misleading.

Pelfrey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob % gb% hr/fb era fip xfip
after 5/22 6.19 3.34 0.48 0.297 80.5 50.6 6.3 2.86 3.55 4.01
to 5/22 6.04 3.38 0.53 0.292 79.6 49.3 6.7 3.02 3.67 4.11
career 5.25 3.40 0.68 0.313 70.9 50.0 7.8 4.43 4.26 4.61

Johan Santana proved he can still be an ace and pitch well, despite a declining strikeout rate.  His walks are right in line with his career average, as are most other key metrics aside from his FIPs. His FIP and xFIP are noticeably higher than his career averages thanks to that 6.96 k/9 and a somewhat low-for-Santana 7.1 hr/fb%.  Hopefully Johan can get a few more home starts to offset the expected long ball regression and declining strikeout rate, but either way he is pitching fantastic and continues to be the ace of this staff.

Santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob % gb% hr/fb era fip xfip
after 5/23 6.96 2.42 0.85 0.286 75.1 37.8 7.1 3.41 3.61 4.21
to 5/23 7.11 2.26 0.97 0.289 72.9 38.8 8.0 3.72 3.69 4.13
career 9.06 2.48 0.98 0.287 77.2 37.9 9.4 3.14 3.39 3.41

We’ll monitor the changes in these rates as the season goes on.  Many of us check these stats regularly, so we wanted to present them in an easily accessible format. Seeing the changes first hand from start to start will help provide a glimpse of how our pitchers are trending and just how “lucky” they may have been in recent starts.

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May 21, 2010

Jerry Manuel and the Players-Communication Breaking Down?

By Richard Gross

medium_manuelThe winds of discontent are stirring and they are beginning to blow directly at the Mets. We’ve seen this pattern before, haven’t we? The numbers increasing in the loss column of the standings but not so much in the win column. Injuries, poor pitching, poor hitting and uninspired play that show every crack, wrinkle and blemish as if the team was standing under a fluorescent light. Yes, this is the 2010 New York Mets and sadly it’s looking much like the 2008 New York Mets that showed their manager the ‘Exit” sign in the early part of the season. As the sage-like Yogi Berra once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again”.

I remember being at Angel Stadium in Anaheim on June 17th, 2008 for Jerry Manuel’s very first game as manager after the abrupt, clumsy dismissal of Willie Randolph. The Mets took it on the chin that night with a 6-1 loss as John Lackey completely stifled the Met offense. However, the game had started out with a dash of promise as Jose Reyes singled to lead off the game. When Reyes reached first base, Manuel saw something he didn’t like. It appeared that Reyes’ leg was bothering him and Manuel pulled him from the game. Reyes barked and argued with Manuel but eventually retreated to the dugout. Jerry Manuel was already ruffling feathers not one out into his tenure as the new Mets’ manager and the Reyes/Manuel incident was exacerbated by Manuel’s “gangsta” comments.

We’ve seen this pattern with Manuel. He seems deft at handling the media, but seems to alienate some of his players. Most notably was Ryan Church who seemed to be Manuel’s favorite pin cushion as he consistently challenged Church’s intensity to play even after returning to the field from a concussion. Manuel used the public media as his podium and seemed to circumvent communication with Church directly. Much of Church’s understanding about Manuel’s feeling came from the media, not from Manuel.

Just this past week, Manuel has flexed his managerial muscles by benching Jeff Francoeur in Atlanta, Francoeur’s hometown. He also gave David Wright an un-wanted day of rest and unceremoniously pulled John Maine after 5 pitches in Thursday’s game stating he wanted to “protect” Maine. Certainly, its Manuel’s prerogative to make decisions that he feels are best for the team. But what seems to be lacking is the communication between the manager and player. In Francoeur’s case, Francoeur could have been told about his benching beforehand to save the trip that friends and family had made out to the TED. In Maine’s case, Maine maintained that he couldn’t understand why he was being pulled from the game. Sure, there was something about Maine’s warm-up that Manuel and pitching coach Dan Warthen didn’t like. But it seems that many of these decisions are somehow not being conveyed appropriately to the players.

In truth, Manuel’s decision to pull Maine should be praised and he should be equally lauded for having reliever Raul Valdes ready in the bullpen. Whether Maine really doesn’t understand why he was pulled from the game is up for debate. Maine’s a huge competitor and obviously wants the ball so perhaps much of his anger is bunched up in denial. Maine doesn’t have to like Manuel’s decision, but he at least needs to respect it and it’s uncertain that that is happening. It’s that lack of respect that separates the manager from the player rather than connecting them. It’s unclear, but it seems that Jerry might be losing some of that respect.

Manuel obviously is trying to do what’s best for the team. That’s not in question. Some of his decisions are questionable as he seems to have a tendency to over-manage in games, and experiment with lineups and player roles (i.e. Reyes), but there is little doubt that all of these are in an effort to notch victories. His logic can be questioned but certainly not his intent. But in the process, he appears to be creating rifts between himself and the players through poor communication and not clearly identifying his plans. It leaves the players unsettled and unsure of what their roles are and whether the manager has a clear direction for the team–for that matter the organization as a whole. And that’s where trouble starts to brew.

Hmmm…sound familiar? My colleague Adam wrote an article discussing some of the merits of Willie Randolph’s tenure with the Mets. But he also mentioned how some of the players, like Carlos Delgado, disengaged from Randolph. Like Randolph, we are starting to hear players make comments about Manuel in a similar tone as the ones that were made about Randolph prior to his dismissal. Phrases like, “Well, it’s the manager’s decision. I just do what I’m told” or “I don’t know why I needed the day off” or “I’m sure the manager is trying to do what’s best for the team” are starting to leak out. These ambivalent words of “support” neither have the manager’s back nor are they completely damning. But anyone can read between the lines and get an idea from the tone that things are not gumdrops and lollipops in the Mets’ clubhouse.

June 16th is rapidly approaching. Will Manuel make it past that day or like Randolph will he be shown the “Exit” sign? These are pivotal days approaching, not just for the team but for Manuel’s future. A good showing against the Yankees and some wins will certainly buy Manuel more time. But it appears that it’s just a matter of time before a change in leadership occurs. The Mets’ seasons are beginning to look like scenes from “Groundhog Day” and unfortunately the Prophet Yogi Berra’s words seem truer than ever.

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May 21, 2010

Yankees vs. Mets (5/21-5/23): Subway Series Preview

By mfgz

After the road trip from hell, the Mets come stumbling home and will open the first of a three game set with their crosstown rivals, and defending World Champions, the New York Yankees. Just what they need to get back on track! This homestand could very well determine the fate of Jerry Manuel and company, so some extra emphasis is added to this series, which will feature a couple of very interesting pitching matchups.

Tonight, Hisanori Takahashi will make his first Major League start against Javy Vazquez. Interleague play might be a huge break for Vazquez, whose 8.01 ERA and 6.48 FIP suggest that he can’t pitch in the American League. As for Takahashi, the 35 year old rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this year, posting a 2.69 FIP in 26 innings of relief. It will be interesting to see how long Manuel will stretch him out, as he has yet to throw more than 60 pitches. RA Dickey was apparently available in relief last night, so he should probably be available again tonight.

Here’s a look at how the Mets have stacked up against Vazquez. It’s worth noting Luis Castillo has a home run off him:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

72

.361

.418

.458

.876

Alex Cora

21

.381

.409

.429

.838

Henry Blanco

20

.200

.273

.400

.673

Rod Barajas

15

.133

.188

.133

.321

Jose Reyes

13

.231

.286

.385

.670

Jason Bay

12

.167

.231

.167

.397

Fernando Tatis

10

.300

.417

.500

.917

Gary Matthews Jr.

10

.600

.600

1.100

1.700

David Wright

8

.375

.444

.875

1.319

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.400

1.000

1.400

Angel Pagan

3

.333

.333

.667

1.000

Saturday night should be an exciting night for my good friend and colleague, Matt Falzano, as Mike “he’s better than Phil Hughes” Pelfrey will go head-to-head with…the one and only Phil Hughes! Hughes has been stellar for the Yankees this year, posting a 2.25 ERA, 3.12 FIP, and an 8.59 K/9 ratio in the daunting AL East. Mike Pelfrey’s numbers, though good, are not quite as impressive: 3.02 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a 6.04 K/9 ratio. It should be an interesting duel between two up and coming New York stars.

There is not nearly enough of a sample size for any Mets hitters to post a chart. Jason Bay has the most at-bats against Hughes and is 1-for-6 with four strikeouts. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira has a .308 average off Big Pelf in 13 at bats.

The best matchup of the series will come in the finale Sunday night, as CC Sabathia goes up against Johan Santana. The last time Santana pitched on Sunday night was a total nightmare, so hopefully there won’t be a repeat performance. Johan has only struggled with two Yankees in his career: Derek Jeter (.423, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 26 AB) and Robinson Cano (.412, 1 RBI, 17 AB).

Heres a look at how the Mets have fared against Carsten Charles:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Gary Matthews Jr.

26

.192

.300

.231

.531

Luis Castillo

19

.211

.211

.263

.474

Rod Barajas

19

.421

.450

1.000

1.450

Jason Bay

9

.111

.111

.111

.222

Henry Blanco

7

.286

.444

.286

.730

Jeff Francoeur

7

.286

.286

.286

.571

Fernando Tatis

4

.250

.500

.250

.750

Alex Cora

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

David Wright

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Unlike the last homestand, the Mets will be playing in some much better conditions. Tonight calls for 75 degrees and clear skies, with 11mph winds from ESE and Saturday will be the 71 with 9mph winds from the same direction. Sunday could be a little bit of a damper, however, as the forecast calls for a chance of showers and temperatures in the low-mid 60s with 10mph winds from ENE. According to weather.com the most favorable conditions for the Mets are day games (which there will be none of this series) with temperatures between 46 and 60 (also not happening) and winds out to left field (nope). Excellent!

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May 20, 2010

I'm so glad the Mets fired Willie Randolph. He was clearly the problem…

By mfgz

Every fan remembers waking up on Tuesday, June 17, 2008 and hearing the news that the Mets had fired Willie Randolph at 3:00A.M., after they had just beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, improving their record to 33-34. The firing of Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson, and Tom Nieto (I mean, he was clearly a terrible first base coach, let’s be serious.) came on the heels of one of the worst collapses in professional sports history and a less than stellar start to the 2008 season. Jerry Manuel was hired as the new manager and management promised to do all they could to make sure the team would return to its winning ways.

Since that time, the Mets have gone through another September collapse, a nightmare season in 2009, and another unsatisfactory start this year. Jerry Manuel is now almost surely going to lose his job, and the Mets are in danger of becoming the club they were six years ago, right before Willie Randolph was hired.

After Randolph’s firing in ’08, mostly everybody agreed it was something that needed to be done. Writers were picking apart Willie, saying he couldn’t handle the pressure and didn’t possess what it took to be a championship manager. And the fans agreed. Why? Because…well…I don’t know…

If you look at Willie Randolph’s managing career for the final four months of his tenure (September 2007, April-June 2008) then, yes, his team was definitely not playing up to their expectations. But people seem to forget about the other two seasons and five months, a period of time where the Mets had won more games than any other NL team. So please, allow me to remind you.

Let’s start off with some basic stats. Willie Randolph’s career record as Mets manager was 302-253, good for a .544 winning percentage.  Only Davey Johnson (.588) has a higher winning percentage. Let me put that in perspective for you: Willie has a higher career winning percentage as Mets manager than Gil Hodges (.523) and Bobby Valentine (.534), a man who many Mets fans want to replace Manuel. He was a Carlos Beltran swing away from going to the World Series in 2006. 

These facts alone should prove that Willie was indeed a good manager, but I’m going to go even further.

Let’s flashback to 2005. The Mets had just finished the past season 71-91, they had traded their number one prospect for Victor Zambrano, and were totally irrelevant in the sports world. All of a sudden, Omar Minaya came in, overpaid to signed Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, and was hailed as the Mets savior. But does anybody remember what the rest of that team looked like?

Well for starters, Doug Mientkiewicz was the starting first baseman, Miguel Cairo wound up playing 100 games and replacing Kaz Matsui as the starting second baseman, and Mike Piazza hit .251. Yikes! I didn’t even mention that the 3-4-5 starters were Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano, and the revolving door that was Kaz Ishii, Jae Seo, and Aaron Heilman, or that their closer was Braden Looper, or that Carlos Beltran finished with only 16 home runs and 78 RBI while hitting a pedestrian .266. Oh yeah, it was also only David Wright’s first full season in the league and Jose Reyes’s second.

Somehow, Willie Randolph managed that team to an 83-79 record and had them within a game of the Wild Card going into September. If you’re going to crucify him for 2007, then you also need to praise him for 2005.

Now let’s move onto 2006. It was one of the most successful seasons in Mets history: 97 wins, finishing 12 games ahead of the second place Phillies, and making it to Game 7 of the NLCS. Sure, the team was helped by the acquisitions of Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Billy Wagner. But allow me remind everybody of some of the starting pitchers the Mets featured in 2006 (number of starts in parentheses): rookie John Maine (16), Alay Soler (8), Oliver Perez (7) — who was 3-13 that season, Brian Bannister (6), Dave Williams (5), Victor Zambrano (5), rookie Mike Pelfrey (4), Jose Lima (4), and the late Geremi Gonzalez (4). Those guys pitched in a total of 58 games, yet somehow the Mets only lost 65 games all season! Can you see Jerry Manuel only losing 65 games with those guys making starts for him?

Then, of course, there was 2007. The season that, all of a sudden, Willie Randolph became a terrible manager. Nevermind the fact that he had to depend on the oh so durable Moises Alou to stay healthy and be a force in the lineup, or that Jose Reyes decided to turn into Rey Ordonez in Septmeber without warning anybody. Forget about the fact that Brian Lawrence and Philip Humber were starting games in the final two weeks of the season, or that the bullpen consisted of the following names: Jorge Sosa, Guillermo Mota, Aaron Sele, Willie Collazo, Carlos Muniz, Jon Adkins, and something called Lino Urdaneta. Yeah, right. Can we really put all the blame on the manager when all those things factored in as well? Should Willie have been held somewhat responsible for what happened in 2007? Absolutely.

But, what happened in 2008, when Willie wasn’t their manager? Oh, that’s right, the team did the EXACT SAME THING!

There were rumblings that Willie lost the clubhouse along the way. I can’t say if this was true or not, since I’ve never stepped foot into the Mets clubhouse at any point in my life, but I can have my doubts. Who did he lose? Carlos Delgado, who has always been known as a curmudgeon wherever he goes? Billy Wagner, who was disappointed with the team in general (I think we all remember his “why don’t you go talk to them over there? Oh that’s right, they left.”)? Ruffling those guys feathers should come as no surprise. But what about the rest of the team? Jose Reyes and David Wright both credited Willie for developing them into All-Stars and Carlos Beltran has never had a bad word about anyone.

Since the firing of Randolph, the Mets have not only gotten worse, they are right back to where they were in 2004. Was he the best manager of all time? No, but he wasn’t terrible. In fact, I would even say he was a very good manager. The one story I will always remember about Willie came during the end of the 2005 season. The Mets had just lost to the Cardinals and were officially eliminated from playoff contention. On the way out of the stadium, Willie was walking with David Wright and told him to remember the feeling and let it fuel him for the rest of his career. I don’t think either of them could have imagined the feeling everyone has now.

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May 20, 2010

Mets' Grab Bag of This 'N That

By Richard Gross

42-17773440

Thought it might be fun to take a little bit of time and open up the Mets’ Grab Bag of This ‘N That and see what kind of stats and tidbits of information we can dig up about our beloved team.

  • The last time R.A. Dickey started a game was April 10th of last season. Dickey was pitching for the Twins against the White Sox. Dickey only lasted 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. He threw 104 pitches, but despite the poor outing, Dickey got the win. It was former Met prospect, Philip Humber who pitched the 9th inning securing the win for Dickey.
  • Since sliding back into the leadoff spot, Jose Reyes is batting .182. So much for familiarity. He continues to struggle. What’s plan C, Jerry?
  • For those of you who are starting up “David Wright Strikeout Pool’ to try to figure out how many punch outs he will have by year end, Wright is up to 55 in 41 games. This would project his year end total to be around 217. Last year, Wright didn’t record his 55th strikeout until June 9th. This makes Wright 3 weeks ahead of last year. By comparison in 2008, Wright didn’t record his 55th strikeout until June 28th.
  • Looking for a positive stat? The Mets are tied for the league lead in sacrifice flies with 18. Hey it’s something!
  • OK, how about this? The Mets lead the league in triples (not surprising really) but they are second in the N.L. with 37 stolen bases and lead the league in stolen base percentage at 82%. They’ve only been caught 8 times. Unfortunately David Wright comprises half of that caught stealing total.
  • From the pitcher’s perspective, the pitching staff have held base runners in check. Only 13 stolen bases have been allowed against Met pitchers. That’s good for 2nd best in the league behind St Louis.
  • On the darker side, the Mets are 27th in baseball with the poorest line drive percentage at 16.8%. They are also second in all of baseball in fly ball percentage at 40.9%. Not a great combination.
  • More bad news (jeez—there’s just so much of it), the Mets as a team are hitting just .208 with two outs and a pretty sad .235 with runners in scoring position. That’s good for last last place in the N.L. and 28th in all of baseball.
  • The plate discipline is also an issue for the team as the Mets tend to give opposing pitchers a big boost by extending their strike zone. They are second in the N.L. in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone at a rate of 29.9%. Not surprising they have trouble scoring runs when they make it so easy on the other team’s pitcher.
  • Prior to Wednesday night, the last time Oliver Perez made a relief appearance in a regular season game was back in 2002 when he was a member of the Padres. He pitched 1 inning against the Rockies and allowed 1 hit. But he also recorded 3 strikeouts in that one inning. Perhaps he has missed his calling as a reliever. Hmmm—maybe not.
  • The triple play the Mets turned on Wednesday was the 10th triple play in the team’s history. Check out this out to get the complete list.
  • Here’s a little good new/bad news. First the good news: Met relievers are second in the N.L. in ERA (2.79) and second in opponent batting average (.223). Now for the bad news: Met relievers lead the league in walks with 76 and LOB% at 85%. Pretty dangerous combination as that strand rate is going to be very difficult to sustain with all of those free passes.

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May 19, 2010

Mets at Nationals (5/19-5/20): series at a glance

By mfgz

When I talked about the importance of the rest of this road trip for the Mets on Monday, I didn’t expect to scare Mr. Wilpon so much that he and the rest of the front office felt the need to fly down to Atlanta to “talk” about things. Regardless, it seems as though management’s sudden sense of urgency didn’t seem to rub off on the team. Though they split the two game series in Atlanta, neither game featured an energized ball club that was determined to turn things around.
So now it’s onto the nation’s capital, where the Mets will look to take a winning streak into this weekend’s Subway Series. This short two game series will feature possibly the two least exciting pitching matchups you will ever see, with RA Dickey facing the ageless Livan Hernandez and John Maine going against Luis Atilano.
The former Met, Hernandez, has seemingly dipped into the Fountain of Youth early in the season, posting a 4-2 record and a 1.46 ERA. You might remember, He began his season with 7 shutout innings en route to a 5-0 victory over Johan Santana on April 11. But look a little closer and you’ll see he will probably show himself as Fool’s Gold sometime soon. His FIP is 4.90, over three full points greater than his ERA, and he has a LOB% of 98.6%. That last stat should come as no surprise to Mets fans, who know Livan is prone to give up many hits.
As for RA (I’m sorry, but I feel awkward having to type “Dickey”), he makes his Mets debut after a 4-2 record with a 2.42 ERA in AAA-Buffalo. The highlight of his season, and maybe his professional career, came on April 29 of this year against the Durham Bulls, when RA gave up a lead-off hit then went on to retire the next 27 batters in a row. Obviously, Crash Davis was not in the lineup.
While the Nationals will try to figure out how to handle RA’s knuckleball, here is how the Mets have fared against Livan (Note: David Wright will most likely get the night off tonight which, despite his numbers against Hernandez, is much needed):

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

58

.190

.217

.190

.406

Jose Reyes

47

.277

.306

.447

.753

Alex Cora

45

.244

.306

.289

.595

David Wright

36

.333

.400

.750

1.150

Henry Blanco

21

.381

.435

.524

.959

Fernando Tatis

20

.450

.500

.950

1.450

Jeff Francoeur

15

.400

.500

.867

1.367

Gary Matthews Jr.

13

.077

.077

.154

.231

Jason Bay

12

.250

.250

.333

.583

Rod Barajas

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Tomorrow, the series wil conclude with a re-match from May 10 at Citi Field, when Luis Atilano bested John Maine in a 3-2 Nats victory. Atilano did not allow a run in 5.1 innings, while Maine allowed 2 runs in 6 innings. This will only be the rookie’s second appearance against the Mets, so posting stats would be a waste of everybody’s time.  As for Maine, he has handled the big bats of the Nationals pretty well. Ryan Zimmerman has a measley .189 average against him in 37 at-bats, though he does have two home runs. Adam Dunn has also struggled in 12 at-bats off Maine with a .167 average, and Josh Willingham is only hitting .154 in 13 at-bats. Each also have a home run off him, however.
Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Conditions will be mild tonight, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s and 6mph winds from the west. Tomorrow will be much of the same,  with a daytime high of 79 degrees and winds blowing at 7mph from the north. The Mets have yet to win a game this season when it’s been greater than 70 degrees. The Nationals have won six.

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May 18, 2010

Is Washburn a Viable Option for Mets?

By Richard Gross

WashburnJarrodTIgersIn just the past few days the Mets’ starting pitching situation has been looking pretty bleak, not that it was a wealth of riches before. Oliver Perez has been banished to the bullpen (is there any chance that he can just stay there until his contract expires?). Jon Niese has a strained hamstring, reminiscent of last year’s leg injury that ended his season prematurely. And John Maine continues to labor from start to start, trying to will his way through 6 innings. Have you ever seen a pitcher work so hard to achieve such mediocre results? As Matt pointed out in this article, the Mets choices are limited both on the major league level and dipping into the minors.

So what are the other options?

There’s always the possibility of a trade. Roy Oswalt’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors indicating that if traded, he would like to go to a contending club. Not sure if the Mets qualify under his criteria of “contending”, but he would certainly be a good sidekick to Johan Santana. But the Mets would have to trade some pieces to get an Oswalt. Presumably, Ike Davis is not for sell as is Jenrry Mejia who was just sent down to the minor to resume his career path as a starter. Fernando Martinez remains a trade chip, but for an aging pitcher with back problems like Oswalt, Martinez would be a high price. Once Carlos Beltran is shown to be healthy, Angel Pagan could be viable trade bait that could actually land a usable pitcher.

But the problem with a trade is that it’s early in the year and teams are still trying to settle into the season and many general managers are not sure as of yet if they are buyers or sellers. Certainly any trade the Mets could pull off would probably not result in the highest return of value for whoever they gave up.

So where else do the Mets look for pitching? How about the free agent market?

They are some notable names that are still unsigned and looking for possible opportunities to play. Paul Byrd (39), Brandon Backe (32), Daniel Cabrera (29), Mark Prior (29) and John Smoltz (43) are all still available but highly risky choices as they are either coming back from injuries or perhaps fighting back the onset of time.

Pedro Martinez (38) is also still available. He proved to be a decent weapon for Philadelphia last year. The thing about Pedro is that irregardless of his waning abilities, he still has a fire in his belly to compete and he can usually go through a batting order a couple of times simply outthinking the opposing hitters. But Pedro is a fragile, aging talent and his arm has seen a lot of mileage.

And then there’s Jarrod Washburn (35), who is probably the best and healthiest arm available and certainly able to help out a team in need. Granted, he’s not an ace pitcher, but when you look at the group that currently makes up the Mets rotation, Washburn is certainly an upgrade over some of the pitchers that are currently taking the mound for the Mets.

Washburn has a career 4.10 ERA and a 107 – 109 lifetime record. Over the past 9 years, he’s averaged 182 innings per season which at least shows some consistency. Early in 2009, he was pitching over his head with Seattle compiling a 2.64 ERA in a 133 innings before being traded to Detroit where the wheels fell off. Historical trend analysis on Washburn could have predicted the regression in Detroit and Washburn finished the season with a typical Washburn-like season: good but not great.

Washburn has always been an A.L. pitcher and like a Javier Vazquez could potentially thrive in the weaker hitting N.L. He’s been very effective at neutralizing left-handed hitters throughout his career with lefties hitting just .237 off of him and a WHIP of 1.12. This would work nicely against division rivals like the Phillies.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle standing in the way for the Mets is that Washburn is a Scott Boras client. Back in January, Washburn had turned down a $5 million offer from the Twins. Last year Washburn was paid $10.35 million. This is big money for a player, but last year Washburn had a WAR (wins above replacement player) of 2.1 which converts to about $9.4 million in today’s market. So Boras will make a case for Washburn to earn pretty close to that kind of money.

Granted as the season moves along, the contract demands may lessen, but Boras plays extreme hardball for his clients. He’s the kind of agent that could take a pig, put a dress and lipstick on it and make you want to take it to the prom as your date. Look how he feed Oliver Perez to the Mets making them believe they were getting crème brulee when all he really is is 5 year-old Christmas fruit cake that’s been passed around and re-gifted.

But Washburn could be an interesting choice to anchor the Mets and provide some consistency from start to start. If the Mets have money to spend, he’s the best option out there and he wouldn’t cost the team any talent from their farm system. Washburn may not be a good fit for teams like the Angels, Giants or that team over in the Bronx. But for the Mets…I repeat, for the Mets…he could be a tulip in a field of poison ivy.

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May 17, 2010

Mets at Braves (5/17-5/18): series at a glance

By mfgz

Well if that wasn’t the weekend from hell, I don’t know what is. Thanks to the four game sweep of the Marlins, these next two short series could be pivitol for the fate of Jerry Manuel and co. With the Yankees visiting Citi Field this weekend, followed by the Phillies, if the Mets do not gather themselves in Atlanta and Washington, the 2010 season may have crashed and burned before we even get to Memorial Day.
Luckily the Mets get a break, as they will not have to face some of the great pitching the Braves have to offer. Tonight, Mike Pelfrey takes the mound against Derek Lowe. Big Pelf will have to be careful with Brian McCann, who has a .464 average against him with a home run and seven RBI. As for Lowe, Luis Castillo and David Wright have a nice stat line, but other than that the righty sinkerballer has kept Mets hitters in check.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

23

.217

.280

.391

.671

Luis Castillo

22

.364

.417

.364

.780

Gary Matthews Jr.

17

.176

.333

.176

.510

David Wright

16

.438

.438

.563

1.000

Jason Bay

13

.000

.133

.000

.133

Fernando Tatis

9

.222

.222

.222

.444

Angel Pagan

9

.111

.111

.111

.222

Alex Cora

7

.143

.143

.286

.429

Henry Blanco

6

.333

.333

.667

1.000

Rod Barajas

6

.500

.500

.500

1.000

Jose Reyes

4

.250

.500

.250

.750

Tomorrow, the Mets will catch a huge break as Kris Medlen will come out of the bullpen to make a spot start for the Braves, with Jair Jurrjens on the DL. Meanwhile, the Amazins will throw out Johan Santana. On paper, this is a gimmie game for the Mets, but as we all know, there really is no such thing with this team. The Braves have had some success off Johan. Troy Glaus has a .333 average in 24 ABs with a home run, and Chipper Jones has hit .294 off the Mets ace. Brian McCann also has two home runs off Santana.
The numbers for Met hitters against Medlen are rather useless to look at, but here they are nonetheless:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

David Wright

2

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jeff Francoeur

2

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Fernando Tatis

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jose Reyes

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jason Bay

1

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Angel Pagan

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): The weather for the series should be a non-factor, with temparatures expected to be in the upper 70s both nights. On Tuesday, there will be 13mph winds WNW, but that should have little impact, if any. This is all good news for the Mets, as they have won eight games in clear skies and have won 10 games with winds of less than 15mph.

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