Monthly Archives: June 2010

June 29, 2010

SP Trends 6/25-6/27 (Pelfrey, Santana, Niese)

By mfgz

The Mets took two of three from the Twins, as they won their sixth series in June.  Headed by strong performances by Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese, the Mets went into the Florida series 11 games above .500.  Johan Santana’s struggles continued on Saturday, and he is still unable to amass the  strikeout totals we are used to seeing.

pelfrey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.69 3.07 0.54 0.273 81.0 49.3 6.5 2.71 3.67 4.15
thru 6/25 5.86 3.27 0.48 0.275 80.7 50.4 6.0 2.69 3.61 4.12
career 5.26 3.34 0.67 0.308 71.6 49.9 7.7 4.26 4.21 4.57

Mike Pelfrey got his 10th win of the season, throwing117 pitches (77 strikes)  in 6 innings of work.  He give up 2 runs, 1 of which was a solo shot to Denard Span, on 6 hits and 0 walks.  He struck out 2 and induced 8 groundouts and 6 flyouts.  Pelfrey’s k/9 has come back down the past few starts.  His strand rate and babip are still better than his career marks, but with his strikeout rate regressing towards his career norm, you have to wonder how much of his success is luck.  One stat that isn’t shown here is his first pitch strike % which rests above 65%, 7 points higher than his career average.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.71 2.86 0.69 0.281 74.3 36.4 5.8 3.55 3.84 4.67
thru 6/26 5.69 2.85 0.73 0.274 76.5 37.0 6.0 3.31 3.90 4.71
career 8.93 2.51 0.97 0.287 77.2 37.8 9.2 3.14 3.41 3.46

Johan Santana picked up his fifth loss of the season on Saturday, throwing 107 pitches in 6 innings of work.  He gave up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks.  4 of those hits went for extra bases.  Santana struck out 4 and induced 7 groundouts and 4 flyouts.  His velocity,  swinging strike percentage, and first pitch strike percentage are all decreasing, while his contact rates are increasing.  It’s no secret his overall effectiveness has been on a decline.  This year it is much more pronounced.

niese k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 6.84 3.24 0.72 0.330 73.9 51.3 8.3 3.84 3.93 4.20
thru 6/27 6.78 3.13 0.78 0.336 72.0 49.1 8.6 4.17 4.02 4.27
career 6.75 3.45 0.71 0.336 72.0 49.6 7.8 4.32 3.93 4.27

Jonathon Niese bounced back on Sunday to improve to 5-2 on the season.  He threw 104 pitches (68 strikes) in 6 innings of work.   He only yielded 4 hits, but walked 3 batters.  Niese struck out 5, and induced an outstanding 12 groundouts, and 1 flyout.  There’s not much to complain about with Niese right now.  There still seems to be some room for improvement in his babip, though he can be a bit hittable at times with his fastball only topping out in the very low 90s.  I don’t think he’ll need to be included in a package to net Cliff Lee, and I think Omar is smart enough to keep this young lefty stud in the rotation for years to come.

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June 25, 2010

Twins vs. Mets (6/25-6/27): Series Preview

By mfgz

The Mets will conclude their six game homestand this weekend, as well as interleague play, with a three game set against the Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies come into Citi Field at a good time for the Mets, as they have lost three in a row and six out of their last 10. However, thanks to the Mets taking two of three from Detroit, they still sit atop the AL Central by a half game.

The Twins, as always, are getting steady contributions from everyone. Offensively, they rank third in the AL in OBP, 5th in OPS and 4th in walks. Pitchingwise, the Twins rank third in ERA, WHIP, and OBPA. Twins pitchers are hittable, however, as opposing teams have a .266 batting average and 664 hits. The reason the staff has been so successful is that they don’t hurt themselves, having allowed only 155 walks, the least in Major League Baseball.

The series features some interesting pitching matchups, highlighted by Saturday’s game, when Johan Santana faces his old team for the first time since being traded to the Mets in 2008.

Both Mike Pelfrey and Santana need to get back on track. Santana’s recent struggles have been well-documented, so there’s no need to get into them. Pelfrey has struggled his last two outings, giving up 3 runs on 9 hits and only 1 strikeout against Baltimore and 5 runs on 7 hits and only 2 strikeouts against the Yankees. He did manage to go 6 and 7 innings in both starts, though. Jon Niese toes the rubber on Sunday also looking to get back on track, though his last start should be disregarded, considering he was pitching a no-hitter through three innings before the rain came and disrupted things.

This should be an exciting series with two good teams facing each other, Johan Santana facing his old mates for the first time, and getting to see two of the games best duos in Joe Mauer-Justin Morneau and David Wright-Jose Reyes.

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June 23, 2010

Interview:Artist Joe Petruccio Meets the Mets

By Richard Gross

GBB

For years, legendary artist Joe Petruccio has been capturing the essence of pop culture and bringing it to the canvass in his own unique style. Some of the main centerpieces of Joe’s body of work have been such greats as Frank Sinatra, Bruce Springsteen, the “Rocky” movies and Elvis.  To add to his already amazin’ credentials, Joe has signed on with Elvis Presley Enterprises as a licensed artist for Graceland and he was also named the official artist of the Hard Rock Park (now known as Freestyle Music Park) in Myrtle Beach, SC.
Joe was gracious enough to spend some time with me just recently for an interview. Now some of you who come to GodBlessBuckner to read about the Mets may be wondering what the great artist Joe Petruccio and the Mets have in common? Well, read on Dear Mets Fans and find out…

Richard Gross (GodBlessBuckner): First Joe, for those Met fans who aren’t familiar with your blog, http://mymetsjournal.blogspot.com, can you give us a rundown about it and what inspired you to create it in the first place?

Joe Petruccio: Thank you, Richard for the opportunity to come out here and talk with you and other Mets fans. To answer your question, the reason I created the blog is simple. Just as I state on the blog homepage –“This year I am going to create a sketchbook entry after each Mets game. I started doing this a few seasons ago. It seems like I just can’t quite get through a whole season without getting frustrated and giving up. This year win or lose, I will finish this.” You see, every year I am so excited to start one of these and about this time every year I give up.

RG: One of the aspects to your sketches that I really enjoy is that you really get the sense what a true Met fan you are. You are very good at capturing the mood and feeling of what it is to be a Met fan. How long have you been following the Mets and when and what were your very first Met sketches?

JP: I’ve been a Mets fan since I was a kid. I was never anything but a Mets fan. I guess I’ve been drawing them since I was a young boy.

RG: You mention on your blog that you’ve never been able to get through an entire season, but you’re committed to get through this one. What’s been the biggest obstacle for you achieving that milestone? Not enough time? Just per frustration with the team or something else?

JP: Pure Frustration! Being a Mets fan I’m sure I don’t even have to explain it. Now there are seasons I missed that I wish I finished. But… you never know.

RG: So tell me a little about your process for creating a game sketch. Are you already sketching while the game is in progress or do you wait until after the game is done to formulate your idea for the sketch? And how long from start to finish does it take you?

JP: I don’t even think about the sketch during a game. Even though now I have people constantly emailing me sayings and ideas during each one. I love how involved people are getting. But I try to stay true to my own thoughts and do what I would do If no one but me was reading it.

After a game ends, if it’s not too late, I open the book and start with the date and heading. Then I stop and think of a quick thought I could use as my title. That usually leads to what I’m going to draw. After I draw it, I paint it in and then I scan and post. The drawing takes about 10 -25 minutes.

RG: Do you watch every game Joe, or do you just look at the box score to get an idea about the game? The reason I ask is that the Mets recently finished a series against San Diego which ends late Eastern Time. Are you burning the midnight oil with those west coast series?

JP: I try to watch as many games as I can. If not I rely on box scores and Gamecast
versions. But so far I’ve seen or heard every one…even all of the west coast games.

RG: I’ve noticed that Jerry Manuel is a real focal point in many of your drawings. He’s either the centerpiece in your sketches or appears in little captions. What makes Jerry such a great “character” to build your sketches around?

JP: Well, sometimes the games aren’t really about a single player or play, to me. So I choose Jerry as a symbol of the team and also representing himself. He’s a nice guy that gets a bad rap from us every now and then. But he’s a genius now.

RG: Most of you artwork centers around rock and roll and classic artists. How do the Met drawings differ from the rock and roll art that you create? Are they both equally enjoyable or is your approach and attitude a little different towards each?

JP: They are both enjoyable to me. My Mets journal is a little more personal than my rock and portrait work. But there are so many similarities between music and sports. We all have a soundtrack to our lives a song that represents a moment in time to us. The same is true with sports. There are moments that we hold dear that bring back a memory just like music does.

RG: So once the season is in the books and you’ve chronicled all 162 games, what are you planning on doing with the collection? Are you planning on compiling the sketches into a publication, perhaps a book?

JP: I just planned on putting it in my bookshelf with all of the others and get started on my Jets Journal. But, publishers have been calling me and I think it’s safe to say, this will be a book.

RG: I know that you have done several exhibits, is there any chance that we might see the Met collection at an exhibition? Perhaps the Met Museum at CitiField might be interested in showing the collection? Is that something you’ve considered?

JP: Never thought about it. If the Mets want me I’m ready. It would be very cool.

RG: Joe, I want to get your opinion of the season so far from a fan standpoint. Are you happy with the way the season is unfolding? What are the positives and negatives for you and is there one particular move that you would like to see the team make?

JP: I wish we could finish the season with who we have right now. I’d hate to upset this chemistry.

I understand we MIGHT need a Cliff Lee or someone like that, but I feel the energy and life in these guys like I did back in ’86. They are getting that swagger and believing in themselves.

I love it!

RG: Finally, what do you have coming up? Special events? Exhibitions? Is there anywhere where people will be able to see your work?

JP: I am about to do another limited edition of signed work with Ali, which is always exciting.

I have a few shows this summer coming up in Florida at American Royal Arts Galleries. If anyone would like to attend give them a call at 1-800-888-9449. You can also check out my other work online at Joe Petruccio Art

RG: Joe, I want to sincerely thank you for spending the time to answer a few questions about your work. Also an extra thank you for the original “GodBlessBucker” drawing. We’re very excited to display it as part of this interview and equally proud to display it on the GodBlessBuckner Facebook page. Please keep up the great work and finish the season. It’s been a true pleasure following your Met art on a daily basis.

JP: It’s been a pleasure Richard! All I can say is Thank you to the fans and Let’s Go Mets!

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June 23, 2010

Where's the Old Santana?

By Richard Gross

13mets_1_600It hasn’t been the ace-like season for Johan Santana. This blog has been mentioning some of the statistical concerns over Santana of late. Matt has pointed out the decreasing strikeout rate, the higher than normal xFIP and the dangerous combination of being a fly ball pitcher with a poor strikeout rate.

To build on Matt’s foundation, I thought it might be interesting to really take a look at and try to pinpoint some differences we see in Santana this year, compared to season’s past and to elaborate on some of Matt’s excellent observations.

First let’s take a look at the strikeout rate. For his career, Santana has averaged 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. This year, he is only averaging 5.7. This is a fairly dramatic decrease even from 2009 and 2008 when he was averaging 7.9. We have seen a steadily decreasing rate of strikeouts as the years have gone by and the lack of punch outs have had a negative impact on his FIP (3.90) and xFIP (4.71) in 2010. The lack of strikeouts and the fairly steady stream of fly balls that Santana tends to allow have given him a bloated xFIP.

To date, Santana has been relatively fortunate in the home-runs-allowed department. He has allowed just 8 home runs on the year and the good news is that only one of those home runs has been hit at CitiField. Obviously Santana is enjoying the high walls and the deeper alleys of his home ballpark. But the concern is that this his typical elevated fly ball rate with the lack of strikeouts will catch up with him and his ERA may increase even further.

So those are the worrisome statistical trends, but is there something that we can identify that’s different in Santana this year than last season or the seasons before? Why are we seeing this concerning slide? Is he not eating his Wheaties or getting enough sleep?

Remember that Santana is coming off surgery that cleaned up bone chips in his elbow. Whether there are some lingering ramifications from that procedure, it’s hard to say, but his velocity has gone down this year which may attribute to some of the poorer strikeout numbers. Santana’s fast ball is only hitting about 89 mph on the radar gun whereas in the past, it’s always been in the low 90’s. Consequently, batters are able to make contact on him this year and extend their at-bats, making Santana throw more pitches. Hitters are making contact 82.3% of the time compared to a lifetime mark of 74.1%. Huge disparity there.

Historically, Santana has always been equally effective against right-handed batters and left-handed batters alike. For his career, righties are batting .223 against Santana versus .235 for lefties. Also for his career, he has an average K/9 against righties of 9.26 and a career average K/9 against lefties of 8.73. All very impressive numbers.

But this year has been a completely different story. We already know the strikeouts are down, and it’s not surprising to learn that Santana’s K/9 against right-handed batters this season is 6.08. What is surprising is that he possesses a K/9 against lefties of only 4.50. It also appears that lefties have been hitting him fairly well with a .289 batting average and a .346 OBP.

With some help from TexasLeaguers.com, I took a closer look at how Santana has pitched against lefties the previous three seasons from 2007 to 2009. I examined pitch selection and effectiveness of those pitches. I then looked at the current 2010 season by comparison.

Take a look at the two pictures below. The first one represents Santana versus lefties from 2007-2009. The second picture represents Santana’s 2010 season versus lefties.

2007-2009 Seasons
js0709

 

 

2010-Season
js10

What stands out as the biggest disparity between the two sets of numbers is the changeup (CH). Santana doesn’t use his changeup very much against lefties. He throws that pitch hit far more against right-handed batters. He mostly uses the slider and fastball against lefties to set up the changeup. But when he does throw it, it has had very effective results in the past.

Notice that high whiff rate for the changeup in the first set of numbers is 19.6% from 2007-2009 versus 8.5% this season. Lefties are simply not swinging and missing on this pitch. It also appears that his command of the changeup is down this year by more than 14% as he has been unable to throw it consistently for strikes. And then we can also see from the data that lefty batters are fouling off the pitch more frequently than in the past three years, thereby extending their plate appearance and obviously having overall more success against Santana.

The loss of velocity on the fastball has been concerning enough. But Santana’s command of the changeup has been compromised as well. And of course the two work hand-in-hand with each other. The more speed on the fastball, the more the changeup fools the hitter because of the wider variation in speed. If there is less speed differentiation, then the hitter has an easier time making contact. If Santana’s changeup isn’t working, then he has to rely more on his fastball. But that pitch has been decreasing in velocity, so this may explain some of the struggles he is facing this year.

Hopefully, these are adjustments that Santana can make going forward. He usually gets blistering hot in the second half of seasons and hopefully he will regain the touch on his changeup that can make him so dominant. Certainly, the Mets are counting heavily on Santana the rest of the way.

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June 22, 2010

SP Trends (Takahashi, Pelfrey, Santana)

By mfgz

The Mets went into this past weekend playing the best ball of their season.  They won their first game behind an strong outing by Hisanori Takahashi but couldn’t get a win in the next two games, though the pitching wasn’t the entire culprit.  Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana seemingly took some minor steps back as some key metrics are beginning to normalize for them.

takahashi k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12
thru 6/18 8.61 3.31 0.66 0.322 76.8 34.9 5.7 3.48 3.26 4.06
career 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12

Hisanori Takahashi pitched 6 strong innings on Friday, allowing only 4 hits.  He struck out 3 and walked 2, while throwing 61 of 103 pitches for strikes.  He yielded 9 groundouts to 6 flyouts as the Yankees again weren’t able to get a good read on him.  Takahashi’s k/9 should continue to drop if he sticks in the rotation.  He’s been able to avoid the home run ball and his 4.12 xFIP is excellent for a spot starter.   Still, he seems to be the most likely candidate to be sent back to the bullpen when, and if, John Maine returns.

pelfrey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.86 3.27 0.48 0.275 80.7 50.4 6.0 2.69 3.61 4.12
thru 6/19 6.13 3.22 0.31 0.280 81.5 50.4 4.0 2.39 3.28 4.02
career 5.28 3.38 0.66 0.309 71.5 50.1 7.6 4.27 4.21 4.57

Mike Pelfrey’s k/9 has been regressing towards his career average the past few games while both his bb/9 and hr/9 are still both better than his career averages.  He’s still pitching well, but you have to wonder when his .275 babip and 80.7% strand rate will revert towards his career average.  He’s generating the same amount of ground balls and his hr/fb% is usually much lower than the league average.  He did manage 7 innings on Saturday, but was hurt by the long ball and 3 walks.  He only struck out 2 and allowed 7 hits.  Look for a rebound performance from Pelfrey as he solidifies himself as this team’s number two.  With the low strikeout totals and lucky babip and lob% marks, be careful not to label Pelfrey an “ace”, a guilty pleasure I occasional dabble in myself.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.69 2.85 0.73 0.274 76.5 37.0 6.0 3.31 3.90 4.71
thru 6/20 5.77 2.93 0.68 0.270 77.1 36.6 5.5 3.13 3.82 4.71
career 8.94 2.51 0.97 0.286 77.3 37.8 9.3 3.13 3.41 3.46

Johan Santana is quickly falling from ace status.  Though one grand slam in one inning was the only real damage done against Santana, he only struck out 3 through 6 innings and had to throw 114 pitches.  He did manage more groundouts than flyouts, and only walked 1, but the sub 6 k/9 is extremely alarming.   He’s a good enough pitcher to make adjustments, and he always gets better as the year goes on, but as his hr/fb% normalizes coupled with the declining strikeout to walk ratio, there will be more  rough games going forward.  Hopefully he can find a way  turn some of those would be strikeouts into batted ball outs.  A 4.71 xFIP tells some of the story of his lucky 2010 campaign to date.

takahashi k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12
thru 6/18 8.61 3.31 0.66 0.322 76.8 34.9 5.7 3.48 3.26 4.06
career 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12

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June 20, 2010

SP Trends 6/15-6/17 (Santana, Niese, Dickey)

By mfgz

The New York Mets swept the Cleveland Indians on Thursday as they won seven straight heading into their weekend series with the New York Yankees.  The Mets are playing some of the best baseball in the majors and getting contributions from many young players.  Their rotation has been key in this June surge, so let’s take a look at how the starters fared against The Tribe and how their key metrics are trending.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.77 2.93 0.68 0.270 77.1 36.6 5.5 3.13 3.82 4.71
thru 6/15 6.14 2.96 0.64 0.272 78.0 36.1 5.1 2.96 3.65 4.63
career 8.95 2.51 0.97 0.286 77.4 37.8 9.2 3.12 3.40 3.46

Johan Santana recorded his fifth win of the season on Wednesday, though once again he did so by getting outs via balls in play as he only struck out one.  Johan Santana’s k/9 has dropped to below 6 for the first time this season.   He’s starting to give up home runs, which for the first third of the season, seemed to be the metric keeping his era respectable.  He’s still pitching well for a pitcher who isn’t striking anyone out, and his fly ball tendencies haven’t gotten him into too much trouble yet.  His hr/fb% is still 4 points below his career average.  His xFIP sits at an ugly 4.71 and sooner or later his fly balls are going to turn into home runs.  A sub 6 k/9 and an elevated walk rate is not a pretty combo for a fly ball pitcher.  Concern is definitely warranted.

niese k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 6.72 2.94 0.70 0.331 73.9 50.0 8.2 3.64 3.77 4.05
thru 6/16 7.06 2.98 0.63 0.336 73.1 52.2 7.7 3.61 3.60 3.93
career 6.66 3.29 0.69 0.340 71.7 48.6 7.7 4.24 3.83 4.19

Jonathon Niese followed up his complete game performance with another strong outing, going 7 innings and striking out 3.  He induced 8 ground ball outs and 8 fly ball outs and is continuing to impress without huge strikeout totals.  He improved to 4-2 on the season, as trade rumors whirl about Seattle’s interest in him as they look to find a suitor with available cash for Cliff Lee.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets decide to do, since their true ace Santana, is clearly on the decline.  Like Mike Pelfrey, Niese induces 50% ground balls, and in a large ballpark his value is even greater as the fly balls he does give up yield home runs well below the league average.  Niese’s babip has stabilized a bit, after being the high 3s for the first two months of the season, and it still has room to regress towards the league average.

dickey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 7.28 2.82 0.47 0.342 80.1 50.8 5.6 2.82 3.13 3.74
thru 6/17 6.68 2.78 0.56 0.329 82.9 49.5 6.3 2.78 3.36 3.90
career 5.65 3.53 1.33 0.320 70.6 44.1 12.3 5.22 5.02 4.69

R.A. Dickey perpetuated the Mets win streak, and his own, as he improved to 5-0 and his young season.   He’s seeing success by limiting balls into play with a 7.28 k/9 which is significantly higher than his 5.65 career mark.  He also has improved his ground ball rate about 4% points this season, as his gb% is an impressive 50.8%.   He has been stranding runners at a clip of 80% which is bound to regress, though his babip of .342 has room to regress too.  The Mets have to keep handing Dickey the ball, no matter what happens when John Maine and Oliver Perez return from their DL stints.

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June 18, 2010

Just like old times (and Subway Series preview)

By mfgz

I said last week that this road trip was crucial for the Mets. If you had told me going into this weekend’s series against the Yankees the Mets would have went 4-2 in Baltimore and Cleveland, I would have been content. But 6-0??? Wow!

More impressive however, is that watching the past six games have reminded me of the Mets of 2006. Many remember the Mets went on a 10 game road trip in 2006 where they went 9-1 and established themselves as the domniant team in the National League. Well, this current 9 game road trip has seen the Mets start off 6-0 and they now sit 10 games over .500, only 1/2 game out of first place and tied for the Wild Card lead. In 2006, one of the big storylines of the road trip was the amount of first inning runs the Mets scored. The same can be said about this current road trip. The Mets have scored at least one first inning run in five of the first six games of the road trip, including 5 on Sunday and 3 last night and 11 total.

The key to the Mets success? Well, you can very easily say it’s been a team effort, which it has. But I would like to single out Jose Reyes. In 2006, the now cliche statement “As Jose Reyes goes, so do the Mets” arose. Well, let’s look at Jose’s June numbers so far: .310 batting average, .375 OBP,  .483 slugging %, .858 OPS, 5 stolen bases, and 9 runs scored in 14 games. Since the start of the Padres series on June 8, Reyes has raised his average from .241 to .270, his OBP from .293 to .318 and his slugging % from .335 to .388. As a result, the Mets are 12-2 in June. As Jose Reyes goes, so do the Mets.

In no way am I saying the Mets are as good as 2006. In fact, I believe they need another top of the line starter and another bullpen arm or two to even be considered serious contenders. But you have to like what you’ve seen from this team as of late, and you have to be confident that they will at least be in the race til the end.

All that being said, the Mets still have three more games to finish off this road trip, although they will be playing only 10 minutes away from Citi Field and the crowed will be 40% Mets fans at least this weekend. Nonetheless, they count as road games on the schedule so it is what it is.

The pitching matchups this weekend will be exactly the same as the last time these two teams met in May (Takahashi vs. Vazquez, Pelfrey vs. Hughes, Santana vs. Sabathia). Javy Vazquez’s first start against the Mets seemed to propel him out of his slump. Beginning with his 6 inning, 1 hit win against the Amazin’s, Vazquez has lowered his ERA from 8.01 to 5.43 and in his last three starts has gone 7 innings totaling 22 K’s and only 5 walks, winning all three decisions. As for Takahashi, I’m interested to see how he fares since this will be the second time the Yankees face him in under a month.

Sunday’s start might be the most interesting to watch, however. Last year in Yankee Stadium, Johan Santana had one of the worst outings of his career, allowing 9 runs on 9 hits in only 3 innings. So far Santana has not been the dominant starter we’re all used to, and there have been some whispers of him being on the downside of his career. His K/9 is down to 5.77 this season, compared to his career mark of 8.95. Even last year it was 7.88, over a run less than his career average. His BB/9 is up to 2.93 from 2.51 for his career. Most alarming, his xFIP this season is 4.71, well over his career average of 3.46. The good news, however, is he is keeping the ball in the ballpark, as his HR/FB ratio is down dramatically to 5.5% compared to his career mark of 9.2%. Also, Santana is well-documented as a stellar second-half pitcher, so perhaps the best has yet to come from Johan.

Hopefully the Mets can continue to roll and take two of three this weekend, but if they don’t I will still be content. Even if they get swept, which I hope does not happen, they will have finished the road trip at 6-3…a far cry from 8-18.

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June 17, 2010

Trimming the "Fat", Helps Bring Mets Success

By Richard Gross

There’s been no June swoon for the Mets this month as they are undoubtedly playing their best baseball of the season. Their record stands at 11-2 this month and they are winning games that they need to be winning as the road gets a little tougher with the Yankees and the Twins looming in the not too distant horizon.

Many have noted a shift in the club’s attitude. They actually look like they are enjoying winning. Imagine that? And as Met fans, it’d be safe to say that we are enjoying it too—for a change. This is a far cry from the lackadaisical and complacent Met teams that have been running out on the field the past couple of seasons, going through the motions, taking their at-bats with as much enthusiasm as watching grass grow.

No doubt, the addition (and subtraction) of different clubhouse personalities have infused the team with an approach that is refreshing to see. Rookies, like Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia and Hisanori Takahashi know nothing of past seasons. They only know the here and now and they are helping players that have been around for multiple seasons turn the page on some ugly, ugly memories.

But more than the infusion of rookie blood, there is much more to the successful June than that. I believe the biggest moves that the Mets have made the past couple of weeks have not been what’s happening on the field but rather some of the dead weight the Mets have lifted from their roster. Don’t they just seem leaner, meaner…less heavy? They certainly have done some necessary trimming of excess “fat” and it’s all for the better.

I believe it’s no coincidence that since the Mets designated Gary Matthews Jr. (and have since released him), put Luis Castillo on the DL and done whatever you want to call what they have done with Oliver Perez, that this team has thrived. And as much I root for a successful return of John Maine, he was doing the team no favors by rolling himself out there every fifth day with only 50% velocity and not enough command to get through 5 innings much less 5 pitches.

The problem with some of the transactions they have made though is that they are not permanent. Matthews’ departure thankfully is a sure thing, but Castillo will eventually come off the DL as well as Perez. Omar Minaya has done is best to move Castillo, but with a year and a half and roughly $9.0 million left on his contact, who wants a singles hitter with bad legs for that price?

And then there’s Ollie. Ollie who is technically on the 15-day DL with knee tendonitis. Conspiracy theorist can debate the legitimacy of the move but the most important part is that he is not with the team. But eventually, the Mets will give him another shot. They need to get some return value on the $36.0 million they have wasted on him. But for now, it’s a good thing that he stays away as his innings pitched were infecting the team like a disease and the Mets seem much “healthier” and better off without him. And don’t we all sleep a little better at night too?

The Mets will continue to maneuver through June with the tougher schedule ahead. They have been playing solid baseball, but who could blame the dedicated Met fan for watching the games with eyes covered, peeking through the slits of their fingers and breathing a heavy sigh of relief after every recorded out? Isn’t it normal to flinch when kicked to the ground so many times? The good news is that management seems to be recognizing some of the issues (players?) that were holding them back and they are finally acting on these issues.

Going forward, Met fans may hold back on their enthusiasm for this team with rightful skepticism. Can we really keep giving all of our heart and soul into rooting for a team that may potentially crush our hopes yet again? Like Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football, can the Mets really tease us once more and move the football as it’s about to be kicked and we go falling to the ground? It takes a lot to be a Met fan. It takes vulnerability, dedication and yes, perhaps a little bit of masochistic pleasure.

But for now let’s take a moment and enjoy the solid baseball we have seen over the past couple of weeks. This Mets team has been a much better team to watch and a much more fun team to root for. And perhaps most importantly…they are a likable team again.

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June 15, 2010

Are Takahashi and Dickey Enough for Met Pitching?

By Richard Gross

rahtThe sun just got a little brighter for the Mets as they won consecutive road games for the first time this season and their first road series. Granted, the wins are coming against the Baltimore Orioles who are owners of the worst record in baseball, but these are the games that the Mets must win if they are to call themselves contenders. The upcoming Cleveland series could be categorized in a similar fashion as must win games. The Indians are not playing the same underwhelming baseball as the Orioles, but they are a team that will struggle to be a .500 ball club and the Mets need to look at the Indian series as one that they should win as well.

With eleven games under their belts in June, the Mets are 9-2. Still, the offense has remained relatively quiet for the most part although it was nice to see them break out on Sunday with 18 hits against Kevin Millwood and company. Still the team is batting just .260 this month and have been offensively erratic. Hopefully the hot hitting on Sunday will carryover on the flight from Baltimore to Cleveland.

However the real story (and has been all season long) is the pitching. For June the Mets have the best ERA in baseball at 2.46. What’s been particularly impressive over the last 11 games and what I consider a very good sign is that they almost have a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio and have only given up 3 home runs. The walks have been the biggest nemesis for the pitching staff as they are second in the major-leagues allowing the most walks (255) behind only the Brewers who best the Mets at this dubious distinction.

Obviously, we Met fans are overjoyed right now with the state of the pitching. But let’s be honest here for a moment. There’s probably not a soul out in Met-Land that foresaw this kind of pitching coming out of spring training.

Leaving Port St. Lucie, Johan Santana had an ERA of 6.75, Jon Niese an ERA of 6.52 and Mike Pelfrey, who has unquestionable been the Mets best pitcher this year left spring training with an ERA of 6.15. Opposing hitters feasted off of Pelfrey in the pre-season smacking 8 home runs through just 26 innings. But that was a different Mike Pelfrey as he has gone through a renaissance and I will make this statement with confidence: he has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the major leagues this year. And you know that home run problem in spring training? Pelfrey has only allowed 3 home runs through 86 innings of work and has a stellar ERA of 2.39 with a 9-1 record.

However, John Maine and Oliver Perez’s springs were a foreshadowing of the disaster to come. Maine left Port St Lucie with an ERA of 7.88 while Perez decided to outdo him with an 8.68 ERA. Maine has since been placed on the DL and as far as Perez goes, I have spent many, many hours wishing and wishing him out into the cornfield. Sadly that has not worked, so I will have to settle for Buffalo

Perhaps the biggest maneuvers that have salvaged the Maine/Perez Titanic were the addition of Hisanori Takahasi to the rotation and the promotion of R.A. Dickey. Both were afterthoughts during spring training. Takahashi was penciled in for the bullpen while Dickey seemed to have a one-way ticket to Buffalo after pitching just a handful of innings in spring training. They have both stepped up and fulfilled significant gaps in the pitching staff and have pitched surprisingly well.

But here is where things get dicey because I’d be lying if I felt that the Dickey/Takahashi combo was the Mets equivalent to the Jeff Neimann/Wade Davis duo that anchor the back-end of the Tampa Bay Rays’ rotation. In truth, I’m holding my breath waiting for them to look more like the Kyle Davies/Gil Meche tandem of the Royals.

Takahasi may own much of his success so far this season to the fact that he is an enigma to the league. Scouting reports have not been fully compiled on him and the real test will be the 2nd go-around in the league to see if he is still able to be as successful. Certainly, hitters will be making adjustments and Takahashi will need to stay a step ahead and make his own adjustments if the Mets are relaying on his continued success.

Opposing hitters are already warming up to Takahashi as he moves through the lineup two or three times. The first time around batters are hitting just .250. The average goes up a pinch the second time around to .268 but by the third time, it jumps significantly to .346. To further bring the point home, the Florida Marlins have seen Takahashi on four separate occasions this season: three times in relief and once as a starter. The third and fourth go-arounds against the Marlins have resulted in a cumulative 7 earned runs through 8.1 innings. This may be a trend the Mets will need to watch.

Dickey, on the other hand, has been around baseball for a while. What he has accomplished so far exceeds many people’s expectations, but how far can the Mets ride this gravy train with a pitcher who has a career ERA of 5.25 and a lifetime WHIP of 1.56? If you follow Dickey’s historical trends, what he has been doing this season is an anomaly in an otherwise tainted career. Dickey has never produced an ERA lower than 4.62 for a season so the concern is that Dickey’s future outings will begin to regress back to his historical trends.

Personally, I love the efforts that both Takahashi and Dickey have been putting out and I hope for their continued success. But the Mets have been playing with house money and there’s a pit in my stomach that tells me that the Mets need to do more where their pitching is concerned. They need some insurance for Dickey and Takahashi if they should falter, and in my humble opinion, not to be a downer, but I expect one of them to stumble. Perhaps Maine will come around and right himself. Perhaps there is a trade option that might provide that needed back-up. Certainly Omar Minaya should be calling clubs about now and seeing what is available. If a deal could be made to acquire some mid-level starting pitcher, the Mets could find themselves in a battle to the finish.

But one thing is for sure: if the Mets choose to look at Oliver Perez as a viable option to help them through the rest of the season, they might as well push the self-destruct button right now and save all Met fans the agony of another season of frustration. Let’s hope they find better and more suitable options in the coming weeks.

What do you think? Are Takahashi and Dickey enough for the back-end of the rotation? Or would you prefer the Mets land another arm as back-up to secure that they stay in contention for the division? Let us know your thoughts.

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June 11, 2010

Mets @ Orioles/Indians (6/11-6/17): Series at a glance

By mfgz

These next six games will be a telling sign for the Mets, given their season-long road struggles and the fact that the Orioles and Indians are terrible teams. So, since the Mets can really use these next two series to push them right into the thick of the pennant race, I’m going to combine both series into one preview.

By now you all know the story: the Mets are where they are right now because of their home record (now 24-10 after a 5-1 homestand). On the road, however, they are a putrid 8-18. But they really haven’t had a prime opportunity to make a statement on the road like they do now. I did some math — which means the stats I’m about to point out are probably wrong somewhere along the line — and up to this point, Mets road opponents (Atlanta/Cincinnati/Colorado/Florida/Milwaukee/Philadelphia/San Diego/St. Louis/Washington) have a combined record of 283-258 this season, good for a .523 winning percentage. So they have been playing some quality teams on the road, though it certainly does nto excuse them from playing so poorly.

But the O’s and Indians are a different story. The two teams combine for a 40-79 record, a lousy .336 winning percentage. On top of that, both teams are just as bad at home as the Mets are on the road. The Orioles are only 11-18 at home this season, while the Indians are 10-16. Offensively, of the 30 MLB teams, the Orioles rank 29th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, 26th in slugging, and 27th in OPS. The Indians rank 26h in runs, 25th in slugging, and 25th in OPS. This is good news for Mets pitching, especially given how well the starters have been throwing lately.

This weekend, the Mets will face Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, and Kevin Millwood. There has been a lot of talk about the Mets maybe making a trade for Millwood, but perhaps Guthrie is the one they should be asking the Orioles about. Despite a declining K/9 rate (4.75 this season compared to 5.53 career), all of Guthrie’s other peripherals this season are better than his career numbers. As for Millwood, this season’s 4.64 ERA and 4.95 FIP are bad enough, but then you compare them to his career 3.92 ERA and 3.88 FIP and it’s even worse. And his 7.28 K/9 rate, while good, is also decling from his career average of 8.27.

When the Mets head to Cleveland they will see two of Cleveland’s young arms in Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot (with Jake Westbrook pitching the final game of the series). Masterson and Talbot are interesting when compared with each other. Looking at Masterson’s traditional stat line — 2-5, 4.74 ERA – it’s nothing special. But then you look closer and see a 8.03 K/9 rate, a 4.08 FIP and 3.88 xFIP, which tells you his defense has let him down a lot this season. Then you look at Talbot who, at 7-4, 3.59 ERA, is having a nice first full season. But with a 4.84 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP, it tells you his defense has actually been a lot of help for him. Oh, the quirkyness of baseball.

As for the Mets, they will go with RA Dickey, Hisanori Takahashi and Mike Pelfrey in Baltimore, then attack Cleveland with the lefty duo of Johan Santana and Jon Niese, before RA closes out the series. Interesting to see the knuckleballer opening up these next six games then ending it before next weekend’s showdown in the Bronx.

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