Monthly Archives: July 2010

July 30, 2010

Diamondbacks vs. Mets (7/30-8/1): Series Preview

By mfgz

While the buzz around baseball this weekend will be who’s going where, where others have already gone, which teams helped themselves, and which teams are now in trouble, there will also be actual games played. The Mets will be playing three of them against the lowly Diamondbacks, although do I really have the right to call them “lowly” since they swept the Mets just last week?

On paper, this looks like a dull series. But for Mets fans, this series is HUGE. A sweep, or even taking two out of three, keeps the team in the race before they head out for a 6 game road trip against Atlanta and Philly. How that will end up is another story.

That being said, the Mets not only need to win this series, they should win it. The D-Backs sport a 13-36 record on the road. They’ve lost 7 in a row. They sport a run differential of -127. Oh, and their pitching has a Major League worst 5.30 ERA…and they just traded their two best pitchers in Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson. Their bullpen is horrendous. In fact, I’ll take it a step further than horrendous — they’re 2008 Mets-like! Coincidentally (or not?), Aaron Heilman is part of the Arizona bullpen. That is, unless he gets dealt (back to the Mets?? Oh boy…). There is absolutely no reason the Mets should not win this series. Then again, you could have said the same thing last week.

The series will start off tonight with a re-match of Mike Pelfrey vs. Ian Kennedy. Last week when this matchup occurred Pelfrey lasted just an inning and a third, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits en route to a 13-2 loss. Meanwhile, Kennedy went 5 innings allowing only 1 run on 4 hits.

Hisanori Takahashi, who we were told a month ago would return to the bullpen but for some reason is still starting, will take the hill Saturday to face off against the young Barry Enright. Jon Niese finishes things off on Sunday against Rodrgio Lopez.

And of course, while these games are going on we’ll all be wondering if any new players will be joining the Mets, or if some current players will be leaving. So far my sources tell me a deal or two might or might not be made. We just have to wait and see. What I do know, however, is that if a deal is made there will be a number of un-funny jokes stating “the Mets responded to the Phillies aquisition of Roy Oswalt by getting…”

Let’s go Mets!

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July 28, 2010

As Trade Deadline Approaches, are Mets Buyers or Sellers?

By Richard Gross

Note to all Major-League baseballs teams: if you are looking for a textbook guide on how to take yourself out of a division race and a wild card race simultaneously, all in the course of 11 days, just analyze the Mets’ recent road trip to the West Coast. It’s a prime example of how to go from contenders to pretenders.

At the All-Star break, the Mets were 8 games above .500 and just 4 games behind Atlanta for the division lead. They were one game out of a three-way tie for the wild card with the Dodgers and the Rockies. But the tides have completely turned as the team went 2 and 9 on their road trip and with the win on Tuesday they are just two games above .500. They dropped from second to third place in the division and are 6.5 games behind Atlanta. Additionally, they are 5.5 games out of the wild card race but the worst part is that three teams have leap-frogged over them and now they must overcome five other teams to grab a wild card berth with the Marlins right at their heels.

Not to put salt in the wounds, but since the All-Star break they are batting .196 as a team with a .252 OBP. They have averaged just 2.1 runs a game (not included Tuesday or Wednesday’s games) and with a post break team ERA of 3.67 (which isn’t bad) it’s not going to translate into many victories.

So in case anyone is watching the calendar, July 31st is this coming Saturday, That’s baseball’s trade deadline. As this date rapidly approaches and the Mets continue to play poorly, given the circumstances, I’ve changed by position on the Mets’ being buyers. Ten days ago, I thought that the Mets needed to acquire another starting pitcher. I didn’t feel that the R.A. Dickey/Hisanori Takahashi duo was enough to hold up the remainder of the season (I still don’t), but what has really sabotaged the Mets of late is the decrepit hitting. The poor hitting over the past week and half as almost completely wiped away a first half that was cultivated on renewed energy and headier, smarter baseball.

Sure, teams go through slumps. And the Mets will obviously hit far better than they have of late. But realistically, Atlanta has been playing solid ball all season long and are in a “win-another-one-for-Bobby” mode. The Phillies are actively seeking starting pitching help (Roy Oswalt?) and have a potent offense despite the absence of Chase Utley. But even with their shortcoming of injuries and a thin bullpen, they have played far more consistent baseball than the Mets. And if you thinking that the wild card is still attainable, that’s probably not a realistic expectation either. The Mets have to battle with 5 other teams for one spot. That’s a lot to hope for that five other teams will all play poorly enough for the Mets to pass them.

Yes, this sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, but the toughest part is for management to decide whether the Mets are buyers or sellers this week. This may be a decision that goes down to the wire and is very much contingent on how the Mets play over the next few games. Truthfully, I would hate to see that Mets take a sellers position. In a “win now” city like New York, it doesn’t sit well with the fans. But I’m of the opinion that even if the Mets don’t acquire another arm or bat of great significance, if they could somehow convince some team to take Oliver Perez and/or Luis Castillo, that would be a positive through subtraction. After all, don’t the Angels owe the Mets one for taking on Gary Matthews Jr?

We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days, but my prediction is that the Mets will more than likely try to acquire an extra arm without giving up top prospects or players. It will probably be a minor addition that hopefully can infuse just the right kind of energy that that has been absent of late. It ill be a move like most of the Mets moves: one that doesn’t distinguish them either as a buyer or seller. A move that will be a half-hearted acquisition that neither commits to winning nor waves the white flag of surrender. Isn’t that the way the Mets operate?

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July 23, 2010

Mets Suffering From Dementor Effect

By Richard Gross

The current West Coast road trip started out rough for the Mets and just continues to look bleak and dreadful. Going into Friday’s game against the Dodgers, the Mets are 1-7 after the All-Star break and have scored just 15 runs over the course of those 8 games. They are the coldest team in baseball coming out for the second half with a team batting average of .188. They are listless, uninspired and have this look like they have just returned from the dead and walking the earth aimlessly.

OK, folks, so I have this crazy notion. The Mets’ zombie-like state has inspired this thought. For those that are not familiar with the Harry Potter books, there are these “creatures” that have appeared in several of the novels called “Dementors”. Wikipedia describes “Dementors” as the following:

The Dementors are soulless creatures considered to be among the foulest beings on Earth. They are soul-sucking fiends who, as their name suggests, dement people who encounter them for too long…They feed on the positive emotions, happiness and good memories of human beings, forcing them to relive their worst memories.

They sound just awful don’t they? I started to think that going into the All-Star break the Mets were showing some cracks, but I figured a nice three-day break would rejuvenate this group and allow them to continue this-better-than-expected season. But such was not the case. They have looked overmatched and outdone even by a team as awful as the Diamondbacks.

Just like a Dementor that sucks the soul out of people and wipes away all of the good feelings that were once there, the Mets seemingly have been sucked dry. I racked by brains trying to think what was different before the All-Star break and after the break that could have possibly sapped all of the energy and life out of this team that had been doing pretty darn well?. My conclusion: Carlos Beltran!!

Now, I’m not implying that Beltran is a Dementor (although there is no proof to say that he isn’t). But since his arrival back on the team, all of the high energy that the team exhibited seems to have shifted to a feeling of complacency. The type of baseball we are seeing of late is similar to the complacency that was central to the Mets’ collapses in ’07 and ’08. Hmmm…suspicious isn’t it? Remember how happy we all were half way through September of ’07? But then all of the good memories and happiness was sucked away as the team took a nose-dive. And aren’t we all reliving ’07 over and over again? Haunting our waking hours and our dreams?

To be fair, I don’t know Carlos Beltran. I’ve never met him. Never shared a beer with him. I’ve never given him one of my cherry Life Savers or even accidentally bumped shoulders with him on the #7 train which I’m sure he takes all the time. (Note sarcasm). But my sense of Beltran, and I’m not alone on this, is that he is a cool cat who seemingly plays the game with a lack of intensity. He seems passive and less passionate than, say, someone like David Wright who would run through walls for a foul ball. Perhaps, Beltran’s intensity is all internal. Perhaps inside he has the fire of Kirk Gibson and the passion of Rob Dibble. Perhaps he thinks about nothing other than to smash that baseball as far and as long as it’s humanly possible to hit it. And when he strikes out he goes into the locker room and chastises himself in a similar fashion to the albino villian from “The DaVinci Code“.

But you know what? I just don’t see it. I think he’s more cool jazz than rock and roll. He’s more lemon sorbet than double fudge peanut butter chocolate chip. And he seems more Dementor than Potter.

Carlos Beltran is unquestionable one of the best outfielder in baseball. He has power, he has speed. He hits well for average and plays a terrific centerfield. But his “even” personality appears to have changed the tempo of the upbeat energy that had infused the first half Mets.

Bottom line is that I hope I’m wrong because the Mets could sure use some of the energy we saw when Ike Davis first came up. But for now, I’m sticking with my “Beltran is like a Dementor” theory. Here’s hoping for a really good Patronus.

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July 23, 2010

SP Trends vs. ARI (Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese)

By mfgz

The Mets were swept for the first time since mid-may as they fell to the Diamondbacks late Wednesday night in a 14 inning affair.  This sweep has caused a stir among Met fans as the calls for the firing of the manager are as loud as the calls for Omar to make an impact trade.  Mike Pelfrey was awful on Monday, but R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese continued their success.

Pelfrey K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 5.51 3.46 0.55 0.324 74.8 48.6 6.5 4.01 3.87 4.37
as of 7/19 5.50 3.35 0.56 0.313 77.2 49.4 6.7 3.58 3.84 4.30
career 5.23 3.41 0.67 0.317 71.0 49.8 7.6 4.47 4.24 4.60

Mike Pelfrey had an anomaly of a start as he couldn’t get out of the second inning on Monday.  Big Pelf gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks, while only striking out 1.  3 of those 7 hits went for extra bases.  Many people have pointed to Pelfrey using his secondary pitches more often and Jerry Manuel would like to see him utilize his fastball.  We’ll see if he heeds Manuel’s advice in his next start.  Richard went into great detail yesterday of the Pelfrey of late.

Dickey K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 6.15 2.51 0.57 0.302 77.4 54.3 7.2 2.73 3.41 3.78
as of 7/20 6.38 2.50 0.50 0.306 77.3 55.0 6.3 2.63 3.25 3.73
career 5.60 3.43 1.28 0.313 70.8 45.1 12.1 5.02 4.92 4.62

R.A. Dickey was strong again and picked up a quality start, despite getting the loss.  Dickey threw 117 pitches, 63 for strikes, as he went 7 innings for the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks.  He continues to be one of the better pitchers on the staff as he is out-xFIPing the rest of thestarters.  Fangraphs featured a nice post yesterday on our beloved Dickey.

Niese K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 7.35 2.83 1.06 0.316 78.6 49.2 11.9 3.54 4.14 3.96
as of 7/21 7.17 2.89 0.84 0.318 77.2 50.0 9.6 3.44 3.88 4.00
career 7.13 3.12 0.96 0.325 75.4 48.4 10.4 4.01 4.08 4.09

Jonathon Niese needed 99 pitches to get through 5 innings on Wednesday night, though he struck out 6 and only walked 1.  He gave up 3 solo shots on 6 hits but kept his team in the game.  It’s fun watching his xFIP go down in a start like this despite making a few mistakes, as his hr/fb% normalized a bit more.  Niese’s peripherals look solid and he’s been able to strand runners over 78% of the time.   Let’s watch his innings count and pitch count as the year progresses.

Pelfrey K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 5.51 3.46 0.55 0.324 74.8 48.6 6.5 4.01 3.87 4.37
as of 7/19 5.50 3.35 0.56 0.313 77.2 49.4 6.7 3.58 3.84 4.30
career 5.23 3.41 0.67 0.317 71.0 49.8 7.6 4.47 4.24 4.60

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July 22, 2010

Mets at Dodgers (6/22-6/25): Series Preview

By mfgz

While things seem to be falling apart in Metsland, the team rolls into the City of Angels to face a team that might actually be in an even worse predicament. Like the Mets, the Dodgers are only 1-6 since the All-Star Break. They’re ownership is going through a bitter divorce settlement that handcuffs them financially and they now have to deal with suspensions to Clayton Kershaw, Joe Torre, and the oh-so-important bnch coach Bob Schaefer.

Meanwhile, the Mets offense seems to still be on vacation. Since the second half, the Mets have been outscored by their opponents 34-15 in seven games. They were outscored by the putrid Diamondbacks alone 20-7. They sport a Herculean team batting average of .192 and an even more impressive .249 OBP and .318 slugging percentage. I just threw up in my mouth a bit.

Still, starting today the team is only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card lead and only 1 game behind the Dodgers.

The pitching matchups for the four-game series are as follows:
Hisanori Takahshi vs. Hiroki Kuroda (tonight)
Johan Santana vs. Vincente Padilla (Friday) — If they lose this game then I give up
Mike Pelfrey vs. James McDonald (Saturday)
RA Dickey vs. Clayton Kershaw (Sunday) — Kershaw was just handed a 5 game suspension, but will appeal and is allowed to play until that’s all settled. Sucks, I know.

As bad as the Mets offense has been, the starting pitching still hasn’t been all that stellar. Yes, Santana and Niese have been solid and RA has been formidable, but then you look at these facts:
- Takahshi hasn’t gone 6 innings since June 18th at Yankee Stadium
- Pelfrey hasn’t gone 5 innings since June 25th vs. Minnesota
- RA hasn’t won since June 23rd vs. Detroit — though, again, that’s not all his fault
Add in the fact that their closer can’t close games, Fernando Nieve is still in the bullpen and Oliver Perez is back — ugh, I just threw up in my mouth again.

Whatever. Go Mets!

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July 22, 2010

Mets Need Pelfrey to Get Back on Track–and Soon

By Richard Gross

*Apr 13 - 00:05*Is there anybody else besides me that’s a little concerned about Mike Pelfrey? Just a little? C’mon admit it. Well, if you’re not, maybe you should be. Have you noticed of late that Pelfrey’s outings are starting to look a lot like…dare I say…Oliver Perez’s outings. Ouch.! OK, maybe that was a little mean and unfair, but not completely off base. Let’s look at some of these ugly stats. For those faint of heart, hold onto your loved ones.

Since June 19th, spanning six starts, Pelfrey has a 1-4 record with a 9.11 ERA. Yes, 9.11!! Someone should call for help. He’s pitched 27.2 innings over that time, allowing 13 walks and striking out 11. Opponents are batting .421 against Pelfrey with a 1.082 OPS. Yes, I know. These numbers are an eye sore. So what happened to that guy who just a little over a month ago had a 9-1 record and a 2.39 ERA? What happened to that Mike Pelfrey?

Well, if the answers were so easily known, it would be easy to straighten him out. But if we look at some specific stats such as ground ball rate, contact rate and strike percentages from Fangraphs then we might get a little better idea as to Pelfrey’s woes.

First, we know that Pelfrey is a sinker ball pitcher and he relies very heavily on the ground ball. So his ground ball percentage is going to be very telling since we want to see that percent as high as possible. That would mean that Pelfrey has effective command on his sinker. For the season, Pelfrey has ground ball rate of 48.6%. In the month of May when he was going so well, that rate was up to 53.2%. But over the past 30 days that ground ball rate has dipped down to 43.2%. That’s a pretty steep swing in numbers and punctuates one of the reason Pelfrey’s numbers have ballooned.

Alright, so it appears that the sinker isn’t sinking and it’s getting too much of the plate. Right now his pitches are being hit for line drives rather than the usually ground balls. We see this also reflected in Pelfrey’s contact rate. Let’s face it, Pelfrey is not a power pitcher and is more about contact so his contact rate will typically be on the high side. In May, Pelfrey contact rate was 84.2% but over the past 30 days that rate has risen by more than 3%. This may not seem a significant variance but its enough to indicate that his pitches have been more hittable.

All of this really stems from a loss of command. Pelfrey has not been able to throw his pitches for strikes the way he was able to do at the start of the season. He’s only been hitting the strike zone about 45% of the time during this cold spell. So when he does get a pitch over the plate, it’s been a lollipop and they have been hit for frozen ropes. But the league may also be getting a little wiser too. Many hitters may have figured out about his split-finger fastball and are laying off the pitch where earlier they were swinging at it.

Pelfrey will obviously need to make some adjustments to his pitch selection if the split-finger is to work the way it was. But how do you solve the command issues? Fortunately, that’s not my job and that’s left to far more qualified individuals (at least I hope they are more qualified than me).

With the Mets uninspired play leading into and out of the All-Break, the team needs to bounce back…and quickly. Atlanta continues to play solid ball but Philadelphia is struggling. The Phillies’ starting pitching is thin (for now–hmmm …Roy Oswalt?), the bullpen is suspect and Chase Utley is out until September. The Mets are in a position to make a run at the division and/or the Wild Card but they can ill afford to lose too much ground to Atlanta. In order for that to happen, Pelfrey will need to make the necessary adjustments to get back on track. He will probably be just fine going forward as he is no where nearly as awful as he has been pitching recently, but will it be too late? Will the Mets fall too far behind in the playoff races to be relevant? Management really needs to acquire another arm at the trade deadline. Pitching wins divisions and the Mets are just too inconsistent and just too thin to make a legitimate run at a playoff spot. The fork in the road is rapidly approaching. Which path will the Mets go down?

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July 20, 2010

Mets Look for Pitching as Trade Deadline Approaches

By Richard Gross

Astros Spring Baseba.jpgThese are busy days for general managers as they scramble looking to make the best trades that will solidify their teams for a post reason run before the July 31st trade deadline. Phone calls are being made, emails and being sent and general managers and owners have a firm grip on their Blackberry’s.

No doubt, Omar Minaya is faithfully scanning the trade market looking for a way to sure up the Mets. The area of focus that needs improving, from most people’s opinion, is starting pitching and I would have to agree with that sentiment. The urgency to find another arm has been somewhat pacified by R.A. Dickey’s surprising resurgence to relevancy. But in truth, I remain skeptical that Dickey will continue to rival Johan Santana’s ERA this season and that he will end up being closer to his career ERA of 5.04. It’s tough to take much stock in what he is doing. How many pitchers redefine their careers at the age of 35? Not to say that I want Dickey to fail. Nothing could be further from the truth. But the team needs the extra arms, if not for Dickey at least for Hisanori Takahashi.

But there are several variables involved with the Mets landing a quality arm at the deadline:

  • The pitcher they seek needs to be improvement over what they currently have and that is not always easy to find in the current trade market.
  • The price has to be right. Apparently the commercial real estate business isn’t booming and the Mets are claiming that their ability to take on salary is limited.
  • Then there are the players that the Mets must give up in order to land a pitcher. Are they willing to part with a player on the parent club? A minor leaguer? And for a team that needs to replenish their farm system with strong talent, it’s is a slippery slope as they don’t want to give away too much for what could be a “rent-a-pitcher” situation for the remainder of the year.

So who are the names that are on the trade block that the Mets could go after? The names that are being tossed about are Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt, Jake Westbrook, Ted Lilly and Brett Myers.

From this list, only Haren and Myers are making less than $10 million this year, but even for Haren, the Mets would still have to be responsible for about $4 million and the number of prospects that Arizona would demand in return makes Haren a long shot.

Oswalt is too expensive and would cost too much in return for players. Besides, the Yankees will probably land him.

Westbrook wouldn’t cost the Mets a lot of players, but his $5 million salary is a lot to take on for a mediocre pitcher with a history of injury problems and a lifetime 4.34 ERA.

Ted Lilly is my personal choice but there are some issues even with him. First, from reports, the Mets are souring on Lilly as they have been concerned with his loss of velocity this year coming back from injury. Also the players the Mets would have to give up would be higher than Westbrook, but not as high as Haren or Oswalt. And there’s the matter of money, Lilly is probably more expensive than what the Mets are willing to spend. But the nice thing about Lilly, despite the loss of velocity, is that for the past 4 seasons Lilly has a cumulative WHIP of 1.14. He’s an attractive control pitcher but allows a lot of fly balls which gets him into trouble, especially at Wrigley Field. Home runs have been his downfall this year. But CitiField would be suppress some of those home runs and might offer him more success.

Lilly is also in his walk year and will become a free agent at the end of 2010, so he has a great deal of personal motivation to do well and New York would provide a nice stage to audition from. He’s also positioned himself as a type A free agent, so at the end of the year if the Mets offered him arbitration and he declined, the Mets could secure a couple of high draft picks from the team that eventually signs him. Something to think about for Omar.

However, the most attractive pitcher out there that really fits all of the Mets criteria is Brett Myers. He’s cheap, wouldn’t cost the team a lot of players and he’s done well enough this year to provide enough improvement of a pitcher like Takahashi who the Mets would prefer to send back to the bullpen. He’s not a bad option considering the Mets limitations and he has shown health this year which he has been the issue in the past. Even if something were to happen to him injury-wise, the $1.5 million the Mets would have to pay would be a low enough risk to take a gamble on Myers.

So those are some of the nuts and bolts of what the Mets are dealing with as the trade deadline approaches. The most likely scenario is that the Mets will go after Myers but not so much as to compromise their farm system. If the Mets don’t land Myers, there may be other options like Westbrook, with Cleveland eating a good portion of the salary. But at the end, the Mets might just stand pat which would be a shame as they are in the mix of things. But don’t be too disappointed if that happens, the Mets are so very good at raising the hopes of their fans and falling short. We should be used to it by now. The trade deadline may come and go with no significant changes. But of course, we’ll hold our breath and hope for something different, as Met fans do every year.

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July 19, 2010

SP Trends vs. SF (Dickey, Niese, Takahashi, Santana)

By mfgz

Though the Mets were only able to take 1 game from the Giants, the starters were not the ones to blame.  Hisanori Takahashi was beat up as he made a spot start for Mike Pelfrey, but the hitting was missing in action as they only scored 7 runs in 4 games.  Look for the Mets bats to rebound against the Diamondbacks as the starting pitching continues to impress.

Dickey K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 6.38 2.50 0.50 0.306 77.3 55.0 6.3 2.63 3.25 3.73
as of 7/15 6.65 2.63 0.55 0.314 76.8 55.0 6.9 2.77 3.31 3.73
career 5.63 3.44 1.28 0.314 70.7 45.0 12.0 5.03 4.92 4.63

R.A. Dickey was strong on Thursday, lasting 7 innings while giving up 1 run on only 5 hits and 1 walk.  He struck out 3 and induced 9 groundouts to 6 flyouts.  He’s seeing the most success of his career thanks to his nice mix of walk prevention and a 55% groundball rate.  He’s been a bit lucky on home runs, but nothing too troublesome  for a starter who is pitching well and getting a fair share of his starts at Citi Field.  Add in a respectable 6.38 k/9 and a faster knuckleball and you have what should be a mainstay in this rotation for the rest of the season.  Dickey has been worth 1.6 WAR so far in 11 starts.

Niese K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 7.17 2.89 0.84 0.318 77.2 50.0 9.6 3.44 3.88 4.00
as of 7/16 7.33 2.81 0.90 0.321 76.3 49.5 10.2 3.61 3.95 3.98
career 7.00 3.17 0.79 0.327 74.4 48.9 8.8 3.96 3.89 4.12

Jonathon Niese is due for a lot more recognition as the season progresses.  He put together another great outing on Friday, going 7 innings giving up 1 run on 6 hits.   He did walk 3 and only struck out 4, but continues to be a groundball out machine.  Niese doesn’t have a large enough sample to make too many conclusions, but he looks like a pitcher who is going to get outs from balls in play and limit walks enough to be successful.  A k/9 above 7 is also promising and as his secondary pitches develop there’s no reason to think he can’t rack up the strikeouts.   Niese was left off a lot of prospect lists and in his first full season he’s doing his best to change (at least some) of the perception of recent Met prospects.  Every team covets a 23 year old lefty who can strike guys out, limit walks, and induce ground balls 50% of the time.

Takahashi K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 8.26 3.57 1.23 0.328 74.1 37.1 10.0 4.69 4.24 4.33
career 8.26 3.57 1.23 0.328 74.1 37.1 10.0 4.69 4.24 4.33

Mike Pelfrey was scratched from his start on Saturday due to a stiff neck and was replaced by Hisanori Takahashi who got tagged for 6 runs on 7 hits including 2 home runs  in 2.2 innings of work.  Takahashi has been hurt recently by a both homeruns and being too hittable.  His leash is probably short, especially with Oliver Perez coming back to the lineup despite Perez being pegged as a $12 million dollar LOOGY.

Santana K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 5.87 2.80 0.53 0.275 78.3 34.8 4.3 2.87 3.54 4.65
as of 7/18 5.88 2.91 0.57 0.272 77.6 34.3 4.5 2.98 3.62 4.69
career 8.88 2.51 0.95 0.286 77.4 37.6 9.0 3.10 3.39 3.48

Johan Santana looked great despite the Met relievers blowing the win for him again.  Santana went 8 innings, yielding 1 run on 8 hits while only walking 1.   He struck out 5 and induced 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts.  He’s been able to maintain success with a k/9 below 6.0 and has limited homeruns significantly this year.  Santana’s xFIP isn’t a great metric to evaluate him, considering he’s limited home runs below the league average the past few years and with the help of Citi Field he should be able to maintain a lower hr/fb% than the rest of the league and a lower rate than his career 9.0 hr/fb%.  Santana’s continued success will be pivotal to the Mets chance at a playoff birth.

Takahashi K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
current 8.26 3.57 1.23 0.328 74.1 37.1 10.0 4.69 4.24 4.33
career 8.26 3.57 1.23 0.328 74.1 37.1 10.0 4.69 4.24 4.33

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July 15, 2010

Mets at Giants (7/15-7/18): Series Preview

By mfgz

The Mets kick off the second half with an 11 game west coast road trip, beginning tonight with a four game series with the San Francisco Giants. Of course, the big news is the return of Carlos Beltran. Though nobody expects him to be the Carlos Beltran of old right away, this is a good time to bring him back. Not only has the Mets offense been struggling of late, but Beltran has a career line of .290/.374/.430 in his career against the Giants.

The Mets did not end the first half on a great note, but they are still right in the thick of things in the NL playoff picture. At 48-40, they are currently one game out of the Wild Card behind the Rockies and Dodgers. While the Mets will be traveling to Los Angeles next week for a four game series with the former team from Brooklyn, they cannot overlook this series since San Fransisco, at 47-41, sits only a game behind New York in the Wild Card standings.

The Mets have not been playing their best ball as of late. They have not won consecutive games since June 22nd and 23rd against Detroit and are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Giants hit a rough patch right before the All-Star break but seemed to break out of it by going 7-3 in their last 10 games. The last time these two teams met, the Amazin’s took two of three at Citi Field on May 7-9.

The pitching matchups for the series are as follows:
Tonight – RA Dickey vs. Tim Lincecum
Friday – Jonathon Niese vs. Barry Zito
Saturday – Mike Pelfrey vs. Matt Cain
Sunday – Johan Santana vs. Jonathan Sanchez

It’s an interesting decision by Jerry Manuel choosing to let Santana pitch on six days rest, when the last time Johan pitched on extra days rest he was roughed up. But I think we’re all used to Jerry making some head scratching moves by now.

Speaking of pitching, in case you haven’t heard by now, the Giants are really good at it. They lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts (712), are second in batting average against (.240), third in ERA (3.50), and are third in the National League in quality starts (52). Not to mention Lincecum has won the CY Young Award the past two seasons.

Hopefully the presence of Beltran will wake the Mets bats up enough to get by. Let’s go Mets!

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July 14, 2010

Grading the Mets First-Half Hitting

By Richard Gross

With the All-Star break upon us, I thought it might be a good idea to look back at the first half performances of the Mets and hand out some appropriate grades. Today, I’m concentrating on the hitting and will grade the pitching in another post. This grading system is entirely subjective and I’ve tried to offer a little bit of commentary as to my perspective. But by all means, you are more than welcome to “argue” whether you think I was too generous or too hard in the comment section below.

David Wright– Grade A-

The power outage from last year appears to be a thing of the past as Wright is on pace for 26 homers, 122 RBI and 28 stolen bases. He currently leads the N.L. in RBI and his .392 OBP is one of the best. The largest blemish on Wright’s season has been his accelerated strikeout pace which could see him net 180+ by season end. But the good news is that he has slowed down considerably with 62% of his K’s coming in the first 44 games and 38% coming in the remaining 43 games. Deserving of his All-Star start at third base.

Angel Pagan– Grade B+

Pagan’s 2010 campaign has been one of the nicest surprises of the season. It was frustrating to see him lose playing time to Gary Matthews Jr. at the start of the season but common sense and talent prevailed. Pagan’s .315 batting average and .372 OBP have prompted manager Jerry Manuel to start trying Pagan out in the leadoff spot. He’s been one of the most consistent contributors this season and is playing much “smarter” baseball than he did a year ago. It seems that his head and the natural talents are coming together. When Beltran returns, the Mets will need to find a place for Pagan in the outfield as his offensive output has been a catalyst all season long.

Ike Davis– Grade B

This may be considered a somewhat generous grade for a rookie batting just .258. But Davis’ overall stats plus 11 home runs rival the much ballyhooed Atlanta rookie Jason Heyward. Davis’ promotion to the big leagues on April 19th seemed to have ignited the team as a whole as the Mets won 10 of 11 games when he was first inserted into the lineup. Overall the Mets are 44-31 (.587 win pct) since he joined the team and Mike Jacobs was shown the door. Davis has also been a tremendous defensive asset and his play certainly grabbed the attention of the Seattle Mariners as they were impressed enough with Davis to make him the main piece in a potential Cliff Lee trade.

Jose Reyes– Grade B-

The good news for Reyes was that his absence at the start of the season was far shorter than originally projected. He started off the season sluggishly but by mid-May turned up the heat and hit .327 down the stretch to the AS break. However, his overall .317 OBP is very poor and that has certainly hampered his stolen base totals as he only has 19 on the season so far. Hopefully, the few days off will provide some relief from his current oblique injury. I guess we should be thankful it’s not the legs.

Jeff Francoeur– Grade C+

Talk about a streaky season. Francoeur came out of the gate on fire but half way through April chilled for about a month hitting just .137 from April 17 to May 23. Since then he’s picked it up again and is batting a solid .292 the rest of the way. But he’s lack of plate discipline is a concern with an OBP of .302 which is not helped by all the first pitch swinging. In my opinion, Francoeur should be the odd man out once Beltran return with some spot starts here and there and pinch hitting. With the Mets’ tendency for injuries, Francoeur is nice insurance to have just in case.

Jason Bay C

Jason Bay, the biggest off-season signing, has yet to show anything close to the form that he displayed in Boston last year and 2008 and his years in Pittsburgh. The .265 average is about 15 points below his career but it’s really the home runs and RBI production that has been most noticeably absent. Perhaps most telling is that Bay has already tied his career high for triples in a season which currently matches his home run total at 6. Is Bay “spooked” by the cavernous gaps and high walls of CitiField? Has he just not been able to make the proper adjustments to the Big Apple as far as attitude? So far, fans have been patient with him, but having played in a high-demand city like Boston, Bay should be able to handle play in New York. He’ll need to step it up the second half if the Mets are to stay in the heat of the race.

Luis Castillo– Grade C

Some may feel that this grade is too lenient for Castillo and that his grade should be lower. Yes, the guy is injured half the time, but Castillo is what Castillo is. He’s not a guy who is going to hit for power (3 extra base hits all year), but his average should be higher than the current .241. But he does make contact with the ball (just 10 strikeouts) and he does have the ability to steal a base or two. He’s a complimentary player and that’s about it. The fact that he was given the contract he was given, is another story. But Castillo is an adequate player as long as we don’t have raised expectations of what his talents truly are.

Rod Barajas– Grade C-

Well, you just knew that Rod Barajas’ torrid home run pace was too good to be true. After starting off the season slamming 11 home runs in the first two months, Barajas hasn’t been able to find the seats since. He’s batted .183 for June and July with just 2 RBI and has an overall slash line for the season of .238/.276/.432. Barajas has started to lose more and more time to Josh Thole and that could be the pattern going forward unless Barajas is able to find a way to contribute more offensively. His defensive talents just aren’t strong enough to compensate for no hitting. The grade is based primarily on the plethora of home runs at the start of the season. Kudos for that.

Alex Cora– Grade D

I know that Cora is a great clubhouse guy and a good teammate and has a good understanding of the game. But that means nothing when we are taking about the production on the field. To date Cora’s slash line is .222/.283/.299. He’s making Castillo look like Chase Utley which is hard to do. He’s been inconsequential thus far and depending on Castillo and Reyes’ health, he may be needed to fill a larger role in the second half. Let’s hope not, but if he comes to that, we will need to see more than what he has produced the first part of the season.

So what do you think? Do these grades match up with your perspective? Too high? Too low? Let’s here what you think.

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