Is there anybody else besides me that’s a little concerned about Mike Pelfrey? Just a little? C’mon admit it. Well, if you’re not, maybe you should be. Have you noticed of late that Pelfrey’s outings are starting to look a lot like…dare I say…Oliver Perez’s outings. Ouch.! OK, maybe that was a little mean and unfair, but not completely off base. Let’s look at some of these ugly stats. For those faint of heart, hold onto your loved ones.
Since June 19th, spanning six starts, Pelfrey has a 1-4 record with a 9.11 ERA. Yes, 9.11!! Someone should call for help. He’s pitched 27.2 innings over that time, allowing 13 walks and striking out 11. Opponents are batting .421 against Pelfrey with a 1.082 OPS. Yes, I know. These numbers are an eye sore. So what happened to that guy who just a little over a month ago had a 9-1 record and a 2.39 ERA? What happened to that Mike Pelfrey?
Well, if the answers were so easily known, it would be easy to straighten him out. But if we look at some specific stats such as ground ball rate, contact rate and strike percentages from Fangraphs then we might get a little better idea as to Pelfrey’s woes.
First, we know that Pelfrey is a sinker ball pitcher and he relies very heavily on the ground ball. So his ground ball percentage is going to be very telling since we want to see that percent as high as possible. That would mean that Pelfrey has effective command on his sinker. For the season, Pelfrey has ground ball rate of 48.6%. In the month of May when he was going so well, that rate was up to 53.2%. But over the past 30 days that ground ball rate has dipped down to 43.2%. That’s a pretty steep swing in numbers and punctuates one of the reason Pelfrey’s numbers have ballooned.
Alright, so it appears that the sinker isn’t sinking and it’s getting too much of the plate. Right now his pitches are being hit for line drives rather than the usually ground balls. We see this also reflected in Pelfrey’s contact rate. Let’s face it, Pelfrey is not a power pitcher and is more about contact so his contact rate will typically be on the high side. In May, Pelfrey contact rate was 84.2% but over the past 30 days that rate has risen by more than 3%. This may not seem a significant variance but its enough to indicate that his pitches have been more hittable.
All of this really stems from a loss of command. Pelfrey has not been able to throw his pitches for strikes the way he was able to do at the start of the season. He’s only been hitting the strike zone about 45% of the time during this cold spell. So when he does get a pitch over the plate, it’s been a lollipop and they have been hit for frozen ropes. But the league may also be getting a little wiser too. Many hitters may have figured out about his split-finger fastball and are laying off the pitch where earlier they were swinging at it.
Pelfrey will obviously need to make some adjustments to his pitch selection if the split-finger is to work the way it was. But how do you solve the command issues? Fortunately, that’s not my job and that’s left to far more qualified individuals (at least I hope they are more qualified than me).
With the Mets uninspired play leading into and out of the All-Break, the team needs to bounce back…and quickly. Atlanta continues to play solid ball but Philadelphia is struggling. The Phillies’ starting pitching is thin (for now–hmmm …Roy Oswalt?), the bullpen is suspect and Chase Utley is out until September. The Mets are in a position to make a run at the division and/or the Wild Card but they can ill afford to lose too much ground to Atlanta. In order for that to happen, Pelfrey will need to make the necessary adjustments to get back on track. He will probably be just fine going forward as he is no where nearly as awful as he has been pitching recently, but will it be too late? Will the Mets fall too far behind in the playoff races to be relevant? Management really needs to acquire another arm at the trade deadline. Pitching wins divisions and the Mets are just too inconsistent and just too thin to make a legitimate run at a playoff spot. The fork in the road is rapidly approaching. Which path will the Mets go down?
