As Matt had mentioned in yesterday’s post, the Mets had traded Jeff Francoeur for infielder Joaquin Arias just before the trade deadline. Matt did a great job of profiling Arias and what the Mets can expect from him this season and beyond.
But I wanted to take one last moment to recount Francoeur’s contributions to the Mets (and lack thereof). Continue reading
We are heading into the last month of the 2010 season and at this point it looks like the Mets aren’t playing for a playoff spot, but rather respect and perhaps to play the part of the spoiler. At times taking on that role can take some of pressure off of a team and sometimes Continue reading
Where does it end? How much more embarrassment can one organization endure? The Francisco Rodriguez “incident” is the latest cherry on the sundae that continues to define the Mets’ organization as perhaps the most mis-managed and misguided baseball franchise around. Certainly, the Mets did the appropriate action by reprimanding K-Rod and putting him on the disqualified list. But the Rodriguez mishap is just another reason that gives credence to the Mets nickname as the “New York Mess”
Just last year, former special assistant Tony Bernazard verbally threatened minor league players to a fist fight that gave some disturbing insight that the Mets’ minor league system was less than nurturing and encouraging but run more like scenes from “Gangs of New York”. Appropriately, the Mets showed Bernazard the door and apologized for his inappropriate behavior. Shortly, after that Omar Minaya decided to throw Mets beat writer Adam Rubin under the bus since it was Rubin that broke the story on Bernazard. Once again a black mark on the face of the franchise.
It would be nice to say that it all stopped there. But over the past seasons there has been an onslaught of player injuries and some that have been mismanaged (concussion for Ryan Church and Jose Reyes’ legs) so much so that the mantra for the team during spring training this season was about health and injury prevention. There was the Willie Randolph firing that was handled with as much tact and respect as a back alley mugging. And there have been countless rumors of ownership’s money woes with varying reports on the extent how much the organization really has to spend. Of course the “company line” from ownership is that everything is fine but one has to wonder with some of the cautious approaches they have taken in the free agent market when they were obvious, specific holes that needed to be filled that just weren’t fully addressed.
Let’s not forget some poor long term contracts (Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo) and the teams’ struggles of late to attract free agents. Joel Pineiro and Bengie Molina were targets for the Mets this past off-season but they accepted reasonable offers from other teams, complaining that the Mets left them hanging and that they didn’t get back to them in a timely manner. The Mets were successful in securing Jason Bay, but one had to wonder if Bay would have preferred to play for other teams than the Mets but the offers were simply not there for his services. He said all the right things in news conferences about how the Mets were on hit “short-list”, but his play this year has been anything but inspirational.
Then there is the nearly depleted farm system. And while it’s true that the farm system strives to replenish itself, currently the Mets minor leaguers are generally not considered among the top prospects in baseball. This raises some questions as to the talent evaluators and the scouts the team has employed and whether they are really doing the top notch job they should.
And finally, let’s not forget about the two collapses in the past years that have branded the team with the “chokers” title (yes, there’s that “C” word). A moniker they have yet to shake. True, many of the players are not around anymore from three seasons ago, but it’s still a stigma that has followed the team around and seems to be permeated in its pores.
So there seems to be this perpetual black cloud that follows the team around. As much as they try to shake this perception of a disorganized organization, the more things happen that seem to strengthen and reemphasize this belief. It would be easy for me to say that they need to fire the coaches, fire Jerry Manuel, fire Omar Minaya and start from scratch. But this would do little to alter this “New York Mess” perspective. Perhaps the team needs to take a closer look at franchises like the Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins who seem to garner respect throughout baseball. These are teams that ballplayers seem to genuinely enjoy playing for and a look at their organizational approach might be beneficial as they seem to generally have success year after year.
But for now, the Mets continue to make decisions with no seemingly big picture in mind. They are certainly the Rodney Dangerfield’s of baseball, but whereas Rodney lamented not getting any respect, I’m unsure, at this point, the Mets are deserving of any.
It’s hard to believe that the Mets haven’t won back-to-back games since June 23rd when they did it against Detroit. Yet, the streak continued on Sunday with a 6-5 loss to Philadelphia. The Mets did fight back but unfortunately, and so customarily, they fell short. It was a game that saw Fernando Martinez get his first start of the season in left field. At 9 games back in the division and 7.5 back in the wild card race, it appears that the Mets have decided to give some of their up-and-comers a shot. What the heck.
There were some trade rumor grumblings and suspicions that both Ruben Tejada and Martinez might have been part of some trade package. Seattle seemed to have been the interested party and word was out that Jeff Francoeur might have been included in a deal that would have sent Chone Figgins to the Mets. But as of yet, that trade has not materialized. Instead they were both brought up to the parent club and Alex Cora was let go. A move that was long overdue.
Martinez will get some much needed Major League experience and it will also allow the Mets to showcase him a little in case there are suitors for his services. Ike Davis made an impression early on with the Seattle Mariners so much so that Seattle was willing to trade Cliff Lee to the Mets for a deal that included Davis. The Mets balked at the deal, but Martinez hasn’t really made the strides the Mets were hoping that he’d make. He’s already gotten a reputation for being injury prone and has been dropping steadily in Baseball America’s prospect ratings year after year. In 2008, Martinez was the #20 ranked prospect in baseball than fell to #30 in 2009. In 2010, he slipped to #77. The Mets might be more inclined to include Martinez in a deal that made sense.
While the Mets are trying to infuse some youthful energy into their daily lineup, the arrivals of Martinez and Tejada has been off-putting to some. Francoeur has been told that he will be platooning with Martinez in right field. A few weeks back, Francoeur was having to come to grips with the fact that he was going to be losing playing time to Angel Pagan with Carlos Beltran coming off the DL. Francoeur appeared OK with that. He understood that Beltran’s bat needed to be in the lineup and Pagan has been one of the more consistent and surprising Mets players all year. But with Jason Bay out, the Mets needed Francoeur to step back into his right field role. But now, Francoeur seems a little less flexible with sharing time with Martinez. So much so, that Francoeur has had some closed door meeting with Jerry Manuel.
Tejada’s arrival also means that Luis Castillo will be riding the bench more. Castillo will still hit better than Tejada but Castillo’s slash line of .259/.322/.315 since the All Star break, won’t win him any medals, so if the Mets are wanting to cultivate Tejada, it would seem that Castillo will find a nice warm spot next to Francoeur on the bench.
None of these maneuvers are game changers. However, neither Francoeur, Castillo or for that matter Cora are difference makers that will help to win games on a consistent basis. The Mets are trying to change the complexion of the team and that means that some players, and some good guys, have to sit or be let go. These are the tough and sometimes unpleasant decisions that a team struggling for direction need to make.
Unfortunately, the most obvious decision and the one the Mets are still unwilling to make is the release of Oliver Perez. Now that would be a game changer.
It was an uneventful weekend for the Mets in many respects. They lost two of three games to the “lowly” Arizona Diamondbacks. A team, as my GBB partner Adam Rossi pointed out, had only won 13 road games all year prior to their visit to CitiField. The other non-event was the coming and going of the trade deadline with the Mets taking the position of neither buyer nor seller, but as a mere bystander.
They did manage to offload Mike Jacobs to the Blue Jays for the infamous “Player to be Named Later” As long as that unnamed player has all of their limbs, that will be one transaction that will be favorable for the Mets. And rumor has it that they did their best to convince other teams that Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo could compete with sliced bread as the next best thing, but alas, to no avail.
But did we really expect some thirteenth hour blockbuster trade to transpire? Realistically, that just wasn’t in the cards. The Mets have been playing such uneven baseball that it should be no surprise that their record is almost a perfectly even .500. The team is much further away from contending with the Braves or the Phillies than one big bat or one big pitcher. I actually applaud Mets’ management for not putting on the pretense of being a “buyer” this season. Whether money was a factor and the team was unable to increase payroll or the team recognized its shortcoming and didn’t want to depart with what few legitimate prospects they have, it was a prudent move.
They also chose not to play the part of the “seller”. It would have been a bold move to trade some of the key, cornerstone players that are fan favorites. For example, what if the Mets had opted to trade Jose Reyes? Sure, Met fans would miss chanting “Jose—Jose—Jose” at home games. They would miss his energy, solid defense and speed. But he is a consummate injury risk and he could have gotten a couple of good prospects in return. Could the Mets have pulled of a trade with, say, Tampa Bay? Trading Reyes for pitcher Wade Davis and minor leaguer Tim Beckham? Maybe, maybe not. Initially, a trade like that would have been an unpopular move for the fan faithful. But a trade like that that might have been a strong move to revamping the Mets with solid, young players of the future. After all, let’s face it, what’s in place right now, isn’t getting the job done.
But again, I don’t fault the Mets for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal similar to that. That type of a deal would have been an outward confession to the Met fans that they don’t feel that they have the players to win and would have indicated that the team is in a rebuilding mode. Such a position is unpopular in a city that demands a winner and has high expectations to have a team with high profile players. That would have been a trade that could potentially alienate even the most loyal of fans.
But what I do fault the Mets for is being in a position that they can be neither “seller” nor “buyer” and the end result was decided to do absolutely nothing. Whether this unfortunate position is due to limited payroll and bad signings (pointing a finger at Perez and Castillo), an under developed farm system or concern about team image and perception, the Mets took the most passive and complacent approach. Could they have not come up with something to at least show the loyal fan base that they care? Some initiative to show some forward movement rather than a team that seems so frightened by its own shadow that it is paralyzed by indecisiveness?
So the end result is the Mets simply don’t know whether to buy or sell. They don’t know if they are coming or going. For every win, there is a loss and the bottom line is that they look like an organization that continues to chase its own tail. They seem forever to remain in limbo and Met faithful will continue to suffer in purgatory.
How frustrating it is to be a Met fan!
Note to all Major-League baseballs teams: if you are looking for a textbook guide on how to take yourself out of a division race and a wild card race simultaneously, all in the course of 11 days, just analyze the Mets’ recent road trip to the West Coast. It’s a prime example of how to go from contenders to pretenders.
At the All-Star break, the Mets were 8 games above .500 and just 4 games behind Atlanta for the division lead. They were one game out of a three-way tie for the wild card with the Dodgers and the Rockies. But the tides have completely turned as the team went 2 and 9 on their road trip and with the win on Tuesday they are just two games above .500. They dropped from second to third place in the division and are 6.5 games behind Atlanta. Additionally, they are 5.5 games out of the wild card race but the worst part is that three teams have leap-frogged over them and now they must overcome five other teams to grab a wild card berth with the Marlins right at their heels.
Not to put salt in the wounds, but since the All-Star break they are batting .196 as a team with a .252 OBP. They have averaged just 2.1 runs a game (not included Tuesday or Wednesday’s games) and with a post break team ERA of 3.67 (which isn’t bad) it’s not going to translate into many victories.
So in case anyone is watching the calendar, July 31st is this coming Saturday, That’s baseball’s trade deadline. As this date rapidly approaches and the Mets continue to play poorly, given the circumstances, I’ve changed by position on the Mets’ being buyers. Ten days ago, I thought that the Mets needed to acquire another starting pitcher. I didn’t feel that the R.A. Dickey/Hisanori Takahashi duo was enough to hold up the remainder of the season (I still don’t), but what has really sabotaged the Mets of late is the decrepit hitting. The poor hitting over the past week and half as almost completely wiped away a first half that was cultivated on renewed energy and headier, smarter baseball.
Sure, teams go through slumps. And the Mets will obviously hit far better than they have of late. But realistically, Atlanta has been playing solid ball all season long and are in a “win-another-one-for-Bobby” mode. The Phillies are actively seeking starting pitching help (Roy Oswalt?) and have a potent offense despite the absence of Chase Utley. But even with their shortcoming of injuries and a thin bullpen, they have played far more consistent baseball than the Mets. And if you thinking that the wild card is still attainable, that’s probably not a realistic expectation either. The Mets have to battle with 5 other teams for one spot. That’s a lot to hope for that five other teams will all play poorly enough for the Mets to pass them.
Yes, this sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, but the toughest part is for management to decide whether the Mets are buyers or sellers this week. This may be a decision that goes down to the wire and is very much contingent on how the Mets play over the next few games. Truthfully, I would hate to see that Mets take a sellers position. In a “win now” city like New York, it doesn’t sit well with the fans. But I’m of the opinion that even if the Mets don’t acquire another arm or bat of great significance, if they could somehow convince some team to take Oliver Perez and/or Luis Castillo, that would be a positive through subtraction. After all, don’t the Angels owe the Mets one for taking on Gary Matthews Jr?
We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days, but my prediction is that the Mets will more than likely try to acquire an extra arm without giving up top prospects or players. It will probably be a minor addition that hopefully can infuse just the right kind of energy that that has been absent of late. It ill be a move like most of the Mets moves: one that doesn’t distinguish them either as a buyer or seller. A move that will be a half-hearted acquisition that neither commits to winning nor waves the white flag of surrender. Isn’t that the way the Mets operate?
The current West Coast road trip started out rough for the Mets and just continues to look bleak and dreadful. Going into Friday’s game against the Dodgers, the Mets are 1-7 after the All-Star break and have scored just 15 runs over the course of those 8 games. They are the coldest team in baseball coming out for the second half with a team batting average of .188. They are listless, uninspired and have this look like they have just returned from the dead and walking the earth aimlessly.
OK, folks, so I have this crazy notion. The Mets’ zombie-like state has inspired this thought. For those that are not familiar with the Harry Potter books, there are these “creatures” that have appeared in several of the novels called “Dementors”. Wikipedia describes “Dementors” as the following:
The Dementors are soulless creatures considered to be among the foulest beings on Earth. They are soul-sucking fiends who, as their name suggests, dement people who encounter them for too long…They feed on the positive emotions, happiness and good memories of human beings, forcing them to relive their worst memories.
They sound just awful don’t they? I started to think that going into the All-Star break the Mets were showing some cracks, but I figured a nice three-day break would rejuvenate this group and allow them to continue this-better-than-expected season. But such was not the case. They have looked overmatched and outdone even by a team as awful as the Diamondbacks.
Just like a Dementor that sucks the soul out of people and wipes away all of the good feelings that were once there, the Mets seemingly have been sucked dry. I racked by brains trying to think what was different before the All-Star break and after the break that could have possibly sapped all of the energy and life out of this team that had been doing pretty darn well?. My conclusion: Carlos Beltran!!
Now, I’m not implying that Beltran is a Dementor (although there is no proof to say that he isn’t). But since his arrival back on the team, all of the high energy that the team exhibited seems to have shifted to a feeling of complacency. The type of baseball we are seeing of late is similar to the complacency that was central to the Mets’ collapses in ’07 and ’08. Hmmm…suspicious isn’t it? Remember how happy we all were half way through September of ’07? But then all of the good memories and happiness was sucked away as the team took a nose-dive. And aren’t we all reliving ’07 over and over again? Haunting our waking hours and our dreams?
To be fair, I don’t know Carlos Beltran. I’ve never met him. Never shared a beer with him. I’ve never given him one of my cherry Life Savers or even accidentally bumped shoulders with him on the #7 train which I’m sure he takes all the time. (Note sarcasm). But my sense of Beltran, and I’m not alone on this, is that he is a cool cat who seemingly plays the game with a lack of intensity. He seems passive and less passionate than, say, someone like David Wright who would run through walls for a foul ball. Perhaps, Beltran’s intensity is all internal. Perhaps inside he has the fire of Kirk Gibson and the passion of Rob Dibble. Perhaps he thinks about nothing other than to smash that baseball as far and as long as it’s humanly possible to hit it. And when he strikes out he goes into the locker room and chastises himself in a similar fashion to the albino villian from “The DaVinci Code“.
But you know what? I just don’t see it. I think he’s more cool jazz than rock and roll. He’s more lemon sorbet than double fudge peanut butter chocolate chip. And he seems more Dementor than Potter.
Carlos Beltran is unquestionable one of the best outfielder in baseball. He has power, he has speed. He hits well for average and plays a terrific centerfield. But his “even” personality appears to have changed the tempo of the upbeat energy that had infused the first half Mets.
Bottom line is that I hope I’m wrong because the Mets could sure use some of the energy we saw when Ike Davis first came up. But for now, I’m sticking with my “Beltran is like a Dementor” theory. Here’s hoping for a really good Patronus.
Is there anybody else besides me that’s a little concerned about Mike Pelfrey? Just a little? C’mon admit it. Well, if you’re not, maybe you should be. Have you noticed of late that Pelfrey’s outings are starting to look a lot like…dare I say…Oliver Perez’s outings. Ouch.! OK, maybe that was a little mean and unfair, but not completely off base. Let’s look at some of these ugly stats. For those faint of heart, hold onto your loved ones.
Since June 19th, spanning six starts, Pelfrey has a 1-4 record with a 9.11 ERA. Yes, 9.11!! Someone should call for help. He’s pitched 27.2 innings over that time, allowing 13 walks and striking out 11. Opponents are batting .421 against Pelfrey with a 1.082 OPS. Yes, I know. These numbers are an eye sore. So what happened to that guy who just a little over a month ago had a 9-1 record and a 2.39 ERA? What happened to that Mike Pelfrey?
Well, if the answers were so easily known, it would be easy to straighten him out. But if we look at some specific stats such as ground ball rate, contact rate and strike percentages from Fangraphs then we might get a little better idea as to Pelfrey’s woes.
First, we know that Pelfrey is a sinker ball pitcher and he relies very heavily on the ground ball. So his ground ball percentage is going to be very telling since we want to see that percent as high as possible. That would mean that Pelfrey has effective command on his sinker. For the season, Pelfrey has ground ball rate of 48.6%. In the month of May when he was going so well, that rate was up to 53.2%. But over the past 30 days that ground ball rate has dipped down to 43.2%. That’s a pretty steep swing in numbers and punctuates one of the reason Pelfrey’s numbers have ballooned.
Alright, so it appears that the sinker isn’t sinking and it’s getting too much of the plate. Right now his pitches are being hit for line drives rather than the usually ground balls. We see this also reflected in Pelfrey’s contact rate. Let’s face it, Pelfrey is not a power pitcher and is more about contact so his contact rate will typically be on the high side. In May, Pelfrey contact rate was 84.2% but over the past 30 days that rate has risen by more than 3%. This may not seem a significant variance but its enough to indicate that his pitches have been more hittable.
All of this really stems from a loss of command. Pelfrey has not been able to throw his pitches for strikes the way he was able to do at the start of the season. He’s only been hitting the strike zone about 45% of the time during this cold spell. So when he does get a pitch over the plate, it’s been a lollipop and they have been hit for frozen ropes. But the league may also be getting a little wiser too. Many hitters may have figured out about his split-finger fastball and are laying off the pitch where earlier they were swinging at it.
Pelfrey will obviously need to make some adjustments to his pitch selection if the split-finger is to work the way it was. But how do you solve the command issues? Fortunately, that’s not my job and that’s left to far more qualified individuals (at least I hope they are more qualified than me).
With the Mets uninspired play leading into and out of the All-Break, the team needs to bounce back…and quickly. Atlanta continues to play solid ball but Philadelphia is struggling. The Phillies’ starting pitching is thin (for now–hmmm …Roy Oswalt?), the bullpen is suspect and Chase Utley is out until September. The Mets are in a position to make a run at the division and/or the Wild Card but they can ill afford to lose too much ground to Atlanta. In order for that to happen, Pelfrey will need to make the necessary adjustments to get back on track. He will probably be just fine going forward as he is no where nearly as awful as he has been pitching recently, but will it be too late? Will the Mets fall too far behind in the playoff races to be relevant? Management really needs to acquire another arm at the trade deadline. Pitching wins divisions and the Mets are just too inconsistent and just too thin to make a legitimate run at a playoff spot. The fork in the road is rapidly approaching. Which path will the Mets go down?
These are busy days for general managers as they scramble looking to make the best trades that will solidify their teams for a post reason run before the July 31st trade deadline. Phone calls are being made, emails and being sent and general managers and owners have a firm grip on their Blackberry’s.
No doubt, Omar Minaya is faithfully scanning the trade market looking for a way to sure up the Mets. The area of focus that needs improving, from most people’s opinion, is starting pitching and I would have to agree with that sentiment. The urgency to find another arm has been somewhat pacified by R.A. Dickey’s surprising resurgence to relevancy. But in truth, I remain skeptical that Dickey will continue to rival Johan Santana’s ERA this season and that he will end up being closer to his career ERA of 5.04. It’s tough to take much stock in what he is doing. How many pitchers redefine their careers at the age of 35? Not to say that I want Dickey to fail. Nothing could be further from the truth. But the team needs the extra arms, if not for Dickey at least for Hisanori Takahashi.
But there are several variables involved with the Mets landing a quality arm at the deadline:
So who are the names that are on the trade block that the Mets could go after? The names that are being tossed about are Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt, Jake Westbrook, Ted Lilly and Brett Myers.
From this list, only Haren and Myers are making less than $10 million this year, but even for Haren, the Mets would still have to be responsible for about $4 million and the number of prospects that Arizona would demand in return makes Haren a long shot.
Oswalt is too expensive and would cost too much in return for players. Besides, the Yankees will probably land him.
Westbrook wouldn’t cost the Mets a lot of players, but his $5 million salary is a lot to take on for a mediocre pitcher with a history of injury problems and a lifetime 4.34 ERA.
Ted Lilly is my personal choice but there are some issues even with him. First, from reports, the Mets are souring on Lilly as they have been concerned with his loss of velocity this year coming back from injury. Also the players the Mets would have to give up would be higher than Westbrook, but not as high as Haren or Oswalt. And there’s the matter of money, Lilly is probably more expensive than what the Mets are willing to spend. But the nice thing about Lilly, despite the loss of velocity, is that for the past 4 seasons Lilly has a cumulative WHIP of 1.14. He’s an attractive control pitcher but allows a lot of fly balls which gets him into trouble, especially at Wrigley Field. Home runs have been his downfall this year. But CitiField would be suppress some of those home runs and might offer him more success.
Lilly is also in his walk year and will become a free agent at the end of 2010, so he has a great deal of personal motivation to do well and New York would provide a nice stage to audition from. He’s also positioned himself as a type A free agent, so at the end of the year if the Mets offered him arbitration and he declined, the Mets could secure a couple of high draft picks from the team that eventually signs him. Something to think about for Omar.
However, the most attractive pitcher out there that really fits all of the Mets criteria is Brett Myers. He’s cheap, wouldn’t cost the team a lot of players and he’s done well enough this year to provide enough improvement of a pitcher like Takahashi who the Mets would prefer to send back to the bullpen. He’s not a bad option considering the Mets limitations and he has shown health this year which he has been the issue in the past. Even if something were to happen to him injury-wise, the $1.5 million the Mets would have to pay would be a low enough risk to take a gamble on Myers.
So those are some of the nuts and bolts of what the Mets are dealing with as the trade deadline approaches. The most likely scenario is that the Mets will go after Myers but not so much as to compromise their farm system. If the Mets don’t land Myers, there may be other options like Westbrook, with Cleveland eating a good portion of the salary. But at the end, the Mets might just stand pat which would be a shame as they are in the mix of things. But don’t be too disappointed if that happens, the Mets are so very good at raising the hopes of their fans and falling short. We should be used to it by now. The trade deadline may come and go with no significant changes. But of course, we’ll hold our breath and hope for something different, as Met fans do every year.
