With their embarrassing 8-3 loss last night to Atlanta, I have officially given up on the Mets season. Not that I had much hope to begin with, but I felt if they could go 6-0/5-1 on this road trip they would at least get themselves back in it. Of course, that was a long shot to happen anyway and last night officially ended that idea, along with my hopes for 2010.

The Mets now sit 7.5 games behind Atlanta for first place. It certainly isn’t impossible to come back from such a deficit, as the Mets themsevles showed us just a few years ago in only 17 games. However, add in the fact that the Mets not only have to worry about the Braves, but the Phillies and Marlins as well, and it shows you just how difficult it is going to be for them. Even if the Mets sweep the Phillies this weekend, they’d still be 2.5 games behind them. And the Phillies haven’t even had their A-team out there all season.

**Side note — The injuries the Phillies have faced this season (Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Polanco, Ruiz, and more) are very comparable to what the happened to the Mets last year. Yet, while the 2009 Mets scuffled and used their injuries as an excuse, the Phillies keep winning and get Roy Oswalt to boot. But that’s another story for another day.**

As for the Wild Card? Being 8 games back of San Francisco, the Mets are actually closer to the division lead. And let’s just say, for arguments sake, the Mets actually catch up to Philadelphia and take over second in the NL East. That still only puts them in third place for the Wild Card, with the Giants and St. Louis/Cincinnati ahead of them.

So now that I have become the ultimate Debbie Downer, I might as well take it a step further and say now is the perfect time to fire Jerry Manuel. You have an off-day and you just lost a series that you needed to win in order to keep your season alive. The team went the entire month of July without winning consecutive games, a streak that actually dates back to June 24, and they’ve won only two road series all year. You might as well cut the cord and start looking ahead to 2011.

Before I continue, let’s get this out of the way — is this season entirely Jerry’s fault? No. Did baseball experts say before the season the Mets were no better than a .500 team? Yes. However, did baseball experts also say if the Mets were in fact no better than a .500 team it would not bode well for Jerry and Omar? Yes they did.

Jerry Manuel seems like a great guy and I’m sure he is. Unfortunately, he is not in the nice guy business, he is in the winning business and has not won. The main problem I have with Jerry is his lack of a plan, which I think is a problem with the Mets as a whole. Many times Jerry will tell us he’s going to do something then doesn’t do it. This series with Atlanta is a prime example of that. He talked about his disappointment in Luis Castillo and the bottom of the order and said changes needed to be made, then the next night he runs out the exact same lineup (which includes Castillo), only replacing Henry Blanco with Josh Thole…wow, what a dramatic shake-up… Then we take a look at last night. Mike Pelfrey is scuffling in the 5th and SNY shows us left-hander Hisanori Takahashi warming up in the bullpen. Gary Cohen informs us that Jerry has said he was trying to stay away from Takahashi, so once again he is going back on his word. When Pelf proceeds to intentionally pitch around Chipper Jones to get to the back-to-back lefties in Brian McCann and Eric Hinske, one would assume Takahashi was warming up for the lefty-on-lefty matchup. But instead, Jerry decides to keep Pelfrey in, making the decision to warm up Takahshi in the first place baffling. Of course, McCann proceeds to rip a double into right field, then after an intentional walk to Hinske to load the bases, Pelfrey hits the next batter to force in a run.

First of all, the fact that Takahashi wasn’t brought in for the lefty-on-lefty matchup tells me that the only reason he was warming up was in case Pelfrey fell apart. If that’s the case then that just goes to show you how much confidence Jerry Manuel has in this team to begin with. But in any event, was it really necessary for Takahashi to be the one brought in? If he’s overworked and needs a rest then give him a rest! Why not use Raul Valdes, a lefty whose prime job all year has been as a long reliever/lefty specialist? I’m dying to hear why that move would have made less sense than bringing in a guy who you admitted yourself was overworked and needed a day or two off.

Nobody expects Jerry Manuel to return next year anyway, so why wait until the end of the season to get rid of him? Fire him now, hire Bob Melvin on an interim basis and see what he can do. After the season, get rid of the entire coaching staff, line up some managerial interviews — Melvin, Backman, Valentine, etc. – and let whoever you hire assemble their own staff. I would also give Omar Minaya the ax, which I believe is long overdue. He’s the one who created this roster, which everyone thought was not very well constructed. He was the one who gave terrible contracts to Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Alex Cora. He needs to take the majority of the blame. Who would replace him? In reality it would probably be Wayne Krivsky, the former Reds GM who is now a special assistant with the Mets. But I would love to see the Mets at least try to make a run at Josh Byrnes, the former Arizona Diamondbacks GM who was just inexplicably recently let go. Either way, something needs to be done.

Ben Franklin defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The Mets collapsed in 2007, did the same in 2008, didn’t even come close in 2009, and are now out of it with two months left this season. Omar has been there for all of it, and Jerry is responsible for the past three seasons as the manager. A change is not a suggestion, it is a necessity. Not only are the Mets acting insane, but they’re driving their fans insane as well.

The Mets kick off the second half with an 11 game west coast road trip, beginning tonight with a four game series with the San Francisco Giants. Of course, the big news is the return of Carlos Beltran. Though nobody expects him to be the Carlos Beltran of old right away, this is a good time to bring him back. Not only has the Mets offense been struggling of late, but Beltran has a career line of .290/.374/.430 in his career against the Giants.

The Mets did not end the first half on a great note, but they are still right in the thick of things in the NL playoff picture. At 48-40, they are currently one game out of the Wild Card behind the Rockies and Dodgers. While the Mets will be traveling to Los Angeles next week for a four game series with the former team from Brooklyn, they cannot overlook this series since San Fransisco, at 47-41, sits only a game behind New York in the Wild Card standings.

The Mets have not been playing their best ball as of late. They have not won consecutive games since June 22nd and 23rd against Detroit and are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Giants hit a rough patch right before the All-Star break but seemed to break out of it by going 7-3 in their last 10 games. The last time these two teams met, the Amazin’s took two of three at Citi Field on May 7-9.

The pitching matchups for the series are as follows:
Tonight – RA Dickey vs. Tim Lincecum
Friday – Jonathon Niese vs. Barry Zito
Saturday – Mike Pelfrey vs. Matt Cain
Sunday – Johan Santana vs. Jonathan Sanchez

It’s an interesting decision by Jerry Manuel choosing to let Santana pitch on six days rest, when the last time Johan pitched on extra days rest he was roughed up. But I think we’re all used to Jerry making some head scratching moves by now.

Speaking of pitching, in case you haven’t heard by now, the Giants are really good at it. They lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts (712), are second in batting average against (.240), third in ERA (3.50), and are third in the National League in quality starts (52). Not to mention Lincecum has won the CY Young Award the past two seasons.

Hopefully the presence of Beltran will wake the Mets bats up enough to get by. Let’s go Mets!

We saw strong starts from Johan Santana and Jonathon Niese but unfortunately the Mets were not able to take the rubber game of the series vs the Reds.   Mike Pelfrey struggled again, though it was promising to see Santana back in control of the game.   Let’s take a look at each individual starter’s stat trends.

It was hard to expect Pelfrey to maintain a  80% strand rate, especially as his k/9 is regressing back down into the low 5s.  Pelfrey gave up 9 hits and 4 walks against the Reds and only lasted 4.2 innings.  The All-Star Break should provide some much needed rest for his arm.  This year, he has only slightly improved his k/9, bb/9, and hr/9, and his lob% is still about 6 points higher than his career average.

It looks like Johan Santana is back.  To be fair, he never really fell off – but the low strikeouts coupled with more walks, less velocity, and shorter outings were making everyone nervous.  He’s a smart pitcher and he is more than capable of making adjustments and we are beginning to see that as we enter the second half where Santana often performs better.  Santana’s complete game shutout featured 5 strikeouts to 3 walks on 113 pitches that only yielded 3 hits.

Jon Niese continues to be one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball as he has been able to maintain a k/9 in the 7s and his bb/9 is below 3.  He has been a bit hittable and susceptible to the homerun ball a bit, but most Met fans should be thrilled with how Niese is performing.  Niese gave up 2 runs late on Wednesday, but pitched very well.  He struck out 8 batters, and induced 6 groundouts and 6 flyouts.  He allowed 2 home runs on 6 hits, but  only walked 1.  He continues to be integral to this Met rotation that seems to be outperforming everyone’s expectations.