Tag Archives: Angel Pagan
It’s hard to believe that the Mets haven’t won back-to-back games since June 23rd when they did it against Detroit. Yet, the streak continued on Sunday with a 6-5 loss to Philadelphia. The Mets did fight back but unfortunately, and so customarily, they fell short. It was a game that saw Fernando Martinez get his first start of the season in left field. At 9 games back in the division and 7.5 back in the wild card race, it appears that the Mets have decided to give some of their up-and-comers a shot. What the heck.
There were some trade rumor grumblings and suspicions that both Ruben Tejada and Martinez might have been part of some trade package. Seattle seemed to have been the interested party and word was out that Jeff Francoeur might have been included in a deal that would have sent Chone Figgins to the Mets. But as of yet, that trade has not materialized. Instead they were both brought up to the parent club and Alex Cora was let go. A move that was long overdue.
Martinez will get some much needed Major League experience and it will also allow the Mets to showcase him a little in case there are suitors for his services. Ike Davis made an impression early on with the Seattle Mariners so much so that Seattle was willing to trade Cliff Lee to the Mets for a deal that included Davis. The Mets balked at the deal, but Martinez hasn’t really made the strides the Mets were hoping that he’d make. He’s already gotten a reputation for being injury prone and has been dropping steadily in Baseball America’s prospect ratings year after year. In 2008, Martinez was the #20 ranked prospect in baseball than fell to #30 in 2009. In 2010, he slipped to #77. The Mets might be more inclined to include Martinez in a deal that made sense.
While the Mets are trying to infuse some youthful energy into their daily lineup, the arrivals of Martinez and Tejada has been off-putting to some. Francoeur has been told that he will be platooning with Martinez in right field. A few weeks back, Francoeur was having to come to grips with the fact that he was going to be losing playing time to Angel Pagan with Carlos Beltran coming off the DL. Francoeur appeared OK with that. He understood that Beltran’s bat needed to be in the lineup and Pagan has been one of the more consistent and surprising Mets players all year. But with Jason Bay out, the Mets needed Francoeur to step back into his right field role. But now, Francoeur seems a little less flexible with sharing time with Martinez. So much so, that Francoeur has had some closed door meeting with Jerry Manuel.
Tejada’s arrival also means that Luis Castillo will be riding the bench more. Castillo will still hit better than Tejada but Castillo’s slash line of .259/.322/.315 since the All Star break, won’t win him any medals, so if the Mets are wanting to cultivate Tejada, it would seem that Castillo will find a nice warm spot next to Francoeur on the bench.
None of these maneuvers are game changers. However, neither Francoeur, Castillo or for that matter Cora are difference makers that will help to win games on a consistent basis. The Mets are trying to change the complexion of the team and that means that some players, and some good guys, have to sit or be let go. These are the tough and sometimes unpleasant decisions that a team struggling for direction need to make.
Unfortunately, the most obvious decision and the one the Mets are still unwilling to make is the release of Oliver Perez. Now that would be a game changer.
Leave a comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee, Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Luis Castillo, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, Ruben Tejada | posted in Uncategorized
July, let’s be real, was miserable. The Mets went 9 and 17 with a -11 run differential. They only allowed 99 runs but could only muster 88 runs themselves. The hitting disappeared. The Mets hit .227/.293/.353 good for a whopping .646 OPS. Their OPS and a 284 wOBA both ranked last in the league. Angel Pagan continued his stud play hitting .337/.402/.594 with a .257 ISO and 7.7 SPD score. They got little production out of second base as the trifecta of talent that is Luis Castillo, Alex Cora, and Ruben Tejada all struggled getting on base. Luis Castillo’s .282 OBP was about 40 points higher than Tejada’s and 80 points higher than Cora’s. There’s no excuse to be starting Cora, even if Castillo is struggling. There’s barely an excuse to even have him on the team. David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Ike Davis all performed well in July, but the struggles continued for Jason Bay. Carlos Beltran walked 14% of the time in July but struggled early with his triple slash. He’s still struggling at the plate but has walked 17% of the time in his past 14 games. Jeff Francoeur maintained his sneaky persona of generating outs more than practically all of baseball, all while capturing the adoration of anti-sabr Met fans. Haters.
The Mets pitching had it’s bright spots in July, though Mike Pelfrey’s regression seemingly masked the other starters’ strides. The Mets are a hittable staff without strong strike out numbers. They’ve been able to limit home runs all year likely due to ground ball tendencies and Citi’s park factor. Mike Pelfrey had a horrific July. His k/9 continued it’s descent and for the month of July was a measly 4.35, but worse was his 5.66 bb/9. Opposing hitters hit .419 off of him. Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, and R.A. Dickey turned in spectacular Julys. Fun fact: Jonathon Niese had a 98% strand rate in July. The Mets had the sixth best FIP in all of baseball in July. Imagine what it could have been if Pelfrey didn’t self destruct.
Leave a comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, david Wright, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Ruben Tejada | posted in Uncategorized
With the All-Star break upon us, I thought it might be a good idea to look back at the first half performances of the Mets and hand out some appropriate grades. Today, I’m concentrating on the hitting and will grade the pitching in another post. This grading system is entirely subjective and I’ve tried to offer a little bit of commentary as to my perspective. But by all means, you are more than welcome to “argue” whether you think I was too generous or too hard in the comment section below.
David Wright– Grade A-
The power outage from last year appears to be a thing of the past as Wright is on pace for 26 homers, 122 RBI and 28 stolen bases. He currently leads the N.L. in RBI and his .392 OBP is one of the best. The largest blemish on Wright’s season has been his accelerated strikeout pace which could see him net 180+ by season end. But the good news is that he has slowed down considerably with 62% of his K’s coming in the first 44 games and 38% coming in the remaining 43 games. Deserving of his All-Star start at third base.
Angel Pagan– Grade B+
Pagan’s 2010 campaign has been one of the nicest surprises of the season. It was frustrating to see him lose playing time to Gary Matthews Jr. at the start of the season but common sense and talent prevailed. Pagan’s .315 batting average and .372 OBP have prompted manager Jerry Manuel to start trying Pagan out in the leadoff spot. He’s been one of the most consistent contributors this season and is playing much “smarter” baseball than he did a year ago. It seems that his head and the natural talents are coming together. When Beltran returns, the Mets will need to find a place for Pagan in the outfield as his offensive output has been a catalyst all season long.
Ike Davis– Grade B
This may be considered a somewhat generous grade for a rookie batting just .258. But Davis’ overall stats plus 11 home runs rival the much ballyhooed Atlanta rookie Jason Heyward. Davis’ promotion to the big leagues on April 19th seemed to have ignited the team as a whole as the Mets won 10 of 11 games when he was first inserted into the lineup. Overall the Mets are 44-31 (.587 win pct) since he joined the team and Mike Jacobs was shown the door. Davis has also been a tremendous defensive asset and his play certainly grabbed the attention of the Seattle Mariners as they were impressed enough with Davis to make him the main piece in a potential Cliff Lee trade.
Jose Reyes– Grade B-
The good news for Reyes was that his absence at the start of the season was far shorter than originally projected. He started off the season sluggishly but by mid-May turned up the heat and hit .327 down the stretch to the AS break. However, his overall .317 OBP is very poor and that has certainly hampered his stolen base totals as he only has 19 on the season so far. Hopefully, the few days off will provide some relief from his current oblique injury. I guess we should be thankful it’s not the legs.
Jeff Francoeur– Grade C+
Talk about a streaky season. Francoeur came out of the gate on fire but half way through April chilled for about a month hitting just .137 from April 17 to May 23. Since then he’s picked it up again and is batting a solid .292 the rest of the way. But he’s lack of plate discipline is a concern with an OBP of .302 which is not helped by all the first pitch swinging. In my opinion, Francoeur should be the odd man out once Beltran return with some spot starts here and there and pinch hitting. With the Mets’ tendency for injuries, Francoeur is nice insurance to have just in case.
Jason Bay C
Jason Bay, the biggest off-season signing, has yet to show anything close to the form that he displayed in Boston last year and 2008 and his years in Pittsburgh. The .265 average is about 15 points below his career but it’s really the home runs and RBI production that has been most noticeably absent. Perhaps most telling is that Bay has already tied his career high for triples in a season which currently matches his home run total at 6. Is Bay “spooked” by the cavernous gaps and high walls of CitiField? Has he just not been able to make the proper adjustments to the Big Apple as far as attitude? So far, fans have been patient with him, but having played in a high-demand city like Boston, Bay should be able to handle play in New York. He’ll need to step it up the second half if the Mets are to stay in the heat of the race.
Luis Castillo– Grade C
Some may feel that this grade is too lenient for Castillo and that his grade should be lower. Yes, the guy is injured half the time, but Castillo is what Castillo is. He’s not a guy who is going to hit for power (3 extra base hits all year), but his average should be higher than the current .241. But he does make contact with the ball (just 10 strikeouts) and he does have the ability to steal a base or two. He’s a complimentary player and that’s about it. The fact that he was given the contract he was given, is another story. But Castillo is an adequate player as long as we don’t have raised expectations of what his talents truly are.
Rod Barajas– Grade C-
Well, you just knew that Rod Barajas’ torrid home run pace was too good to be true. After starting off the season slamming 11 home runs in the first two months, Barajas hasn’t been able to find the seats since. He’s batted .183 for June and July with just 2 RBI and has an overall slash line for the season of .238/.276/.432. Barajas has started to lose more and more time to Josh Thole and that could be the pattern going forward unless Barajas is able to find a way to contribute more offensively. His defensive talents just aren’t strong enough to compensate for no hitting. The grade is based primarily on the plethora of home runs at the start of the season. Kudos for that.
Alex Cora– Grade D
I know that Cora is a great clubhouse guy and a good teammate and has a good understanding of the game. But that means nothing when we are taking about the production on the field. To date Cora’s slash line is .222/.283/.299. He’s making Castillo look like Chase Utley which is hard to do. He’s been inconsequential thus far and depending on Castillo and Reyes’ health, he may be needed to fill a larger role in the second half. Let’s hope not, but if he comes to that, we will need to see more than what he has produced the first part of the season.
So what do you think? Do these grades match up with your perspective? Too high? Too low? Let’s here what you think.
Leave a comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, david Wright, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, New York Mets Streak, Rod Barajas | posted in Uncategorized
The Mets offense seemingly exploded in June as David Wright mashed to the tune of .404/.447/.683; .475 wOBA. Jose Reyes finally found his stride, hitting .314/.360/.533; .397 wOBA. Overall, the hitters are still putting balls into play more frequently than most teams (8.1 bb%; 20.2k%). Their .301 BABIP is right in line with the league mean, and their team triple slash on the season rests at .261/.325/.403. Fans have yet to see a good month from Jason Bay, but he’s been excellent in his last 15 games or so. Should Carlos Beltran come back, Jerry would be wise to maximize RF production by playing Francoeur against lefties and Pagan against righties when Beltran is in the lineup.
|
AVG |
BABIP |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
SPD |
wOBA |
| APR |
0.242 |
0.280 |
0.329 |
0.384 |
0.142 |
6.4 |
0.319 |
| MAY |
0.264 |
0.305 |
0.324 |
0.401 |
0.138 |
5.7 |
0.323 |
| JUN |
0.274 |
0.308 |
0.324 |
0.424 |
0.150 |
5.3 |
0.329 |
| JUL |
0.264 |
0.359 |
0.327 |
0.389 |
0.125 |
6.7 |
0.315 |
| TOT |
0.261 |
0.313 |
0.326 |
0.400 |
0.139 |
6.0 |
0.322 |
The Mets pitching has been strong of late, but has benefited from a combination of luck, defense, and ballpark factor for most of the season. They are 24th overall (12th in nl) in WHIP with a 1.43 mark, but 6th overall (5th in nl) in ERA with a 3.83 mark. Essentially, they are putting runners on base, often via walks, but they are stranding those runners 76.3% of the time, good for 2nd in the NL behind the Padres. The Mets are middle of the pack in most batted ball against stats and have a .311 BABIP against with a 1.16 GB/FB%. They’ve thrown the 3rd most pitches in the NL. Dickey, Pelfrey, and Niese all throw 50% ground balls, in part why they’ve been able to limit homeruns against this year.
|
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
BABIP |
LOB% |
WHIP |
HR/9 |
| APR |
2.97 |
3.77 |
4.51 |
0.296 |
80.4 |
1.39 |
0.51 |
| MAY |
4.85 |
4.81 |
4.57 |
0.323 |
72.8 |
1.56 |
1.27 |
| JUN |
3.54 |
3.77 |
4.21 |
0.302 |
76.6 |
1.29 |
0.73 |
| JUL |
3.60 |
3.22 |
3.81 |
0.376 |
75.2 |
1.54 |
0.51 |
| TOT |
3.74 |
3.89 |
4.28 |
0.324 |
76.3 |
1.45 |
0.76 |
Leave a comment | tags: Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, david Wright, Hisanori Takahashi, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Jose Reyes, Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey | posted in Uncategorized
What a great upcoming series this will be. The best team in the National League is travelling into Citi Field to face the best team in baseball!…What?…What am I talking about, you say? Well, the Mets DO have the best home record in Major League Baseball. So if they didn’t have to endure that huge inconvenience of going on the road every other week, they would have the best record in baseball! And since they’re at home for this series, I say it’s fair to call them the best team in baseball until Friday, when they turn turn into one of the worst.
You’re also probably wondering how the San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League. I mean, this is an offense that has a .250 team batting average, have scored a mere 242 runs, and are second-to-last in the NL in home runs (42). Yet, even with their offensive struggles, the Friars sport a +54 run differential, the best in the National League.
The key has been their pitching. Coming into this series, the Padres lead MLB with a 3.02 team ERA, are second in MLB with a .231 BAA and are third in the NL with 447 strikeouts. The starting staff has two underrated, young arms which will be facing the Mets this series: Mat Latos and Clayton Richard.
Richard’s last start came last Wednesday against the Mets in San Diego. He pitched well, going 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts in a no-decision. In that start he went up against Johan Santana, who was brilliant. Tonight, he goes up against another Mets starter who has been brilliant all year in Mike Pelfrey. Most of the following stats for Met hitters against Richard are a result of last week:
| METS HITTER |
AB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Alex Cora
|
6
|
.000
|
.143
|
.000
|
.143
|
|
Angel Pagan
|
6
|
.167
|
.167
|
.167
|
.333
|
|
David Wright
|
5
|
.200
|
.333
|
.200
|
.533
|
|
Jeff Francoeur
|
5
|
.400
|
.500
|
.400
|
.900
|
|
Rod Barajas
|
4
|
.250
|
.250
|
.500
|
.750
|
|
Fernando Tatis
|
3
|
.667
|
.667
|
1.000
|
1.667
|
|
Ike Davis
|
3
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
2
|
.000
|
.333
|
.000
|
.333
|
|
Jose Reyes
|
2
|
.000
|
.333
|
.000
|
.333
|
|
Jason Bay
|
2
|
1.000
|
1.000
|
1.000
|
2.000
|
Mat Latos takes the hill tomorrow night against Johan. Latos made one start against the Mets last season, where he went 6 innings and allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory. Since that was his only appearance against the Amazin’s, posting player stats would be pointless. As for Santana, he has not allowed a run in his last two outings, yet doesn’t have a win to show for either, as the Mets offense totaled only 1 run in those starts and the bullpen was unable to hold things together.
In the series finale on Thursday afternoon, a resurgent Jon Garland will take on RA Dickey. Garland was a name thrown around during the off-season for the Mets, and has shown so far that he would have been a nice addition to the starting staff. So far this season, Garland is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA. However, a 4.17 FIP suggests that could change soon. Most of Garland’s success this season has come from the ground ball, as he has a 52% ground ball rate. As for the Mets, here’s how they’ve stacked up against Garland over the years:
| METS HITTER |
AB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Rod Barajas
|
21
|
.333
|
.391
|
.762
|
1.153
|
|
Alex Cora
|
13
|
.231
|
.231
|
.385
|
.615
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
12
|
.167
|
.333
|
.250
|
.583
|
|
David Wright
|
10
|
.100
|
.100
|
.100
|
.200
|
|
Jeff Francoeur
|
10
|
.500
|
.583
|
.900
|
1.483
|
|
Fernando Tatis
|
4
|
.750
|
.833
|
1.000
|
1.833
|
|
Jose Reyes
|
3
|
.667
|
.667
|
1.333
|
2.000
|
|
Jason Bay
|
3
|
.333
|
.333
|
.333
|
.667
|
|
Angel Pagan
|
3
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Tonight should be a nice night for baseball, with mostly sunny skies, tempratures in the low 70s and 11mph winds blowing from NW. If you have or were thinking about getting tickets for tomorrow’s game, however, hold up. The forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s and a 70% chance of rain. On Thursday, the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, with temperatures in the mid 70s and 12mph winds from NW.
Leave a comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, Clayton Richard, david Wright, Fernando Tatis, Henry Blanco, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Johan Santana, Jon Garland, Jose Reyes, Mat Latos, Mike Pelfrey, RA Dickey, Rod Barajas, San Diego Padres | posted in Uncategorized
After what we’ll call an extended holiday break, I am back with the series preview! I know you’ve all been missing it so much. I mean, where else are you going to get such in depth analysis on upcoming Mets games? Anyway, the Mets continued to show us all that for as good as they are at home, they’re that bad on the road. The good news is they are back home for six games. The bad news is they open the weekend with a three game set against the Marlins, who are 6-1 against the Metropolitans this season, including that horrendous four game sweep in May.
The pitching matchups for this series are as follows: Anibal Sanchez vs. RA Dickey (Friday), Nate Robertson vs. Jonathon Niese (Saturday), Ricky Nolasco vs. Hisanori Takahashi.
RA has been more than serviceable in his short time with the Mets, but the question is will it continue? When comparing his career numbers with his numbers through three starts, most stats are very similar. The one that sticks out, however, if his FIP. RA has a career FIP of 5.15, but so far his FIP this season is 4.31. Tim Wakefield, probably the most notable current knuckleballer, sprots a career FIP of 4.72, so that shows that just how successful RA has been. Now, whether he can sustain that success or if his respectable FIP is just an example of small sample size will be found out through time, but the Mets have to be very happy with his contributions thus far.
Here’s a look at the Mets offense vs. Sanchez:
| METS HITTER |
AB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Jeff Francoeur
|
21
|
.190
|
.190
|
.381
|
.571
|
|
Jose Reyes
|
17
|
.118
|
.250
|
.176
|
.426
|
|
David Wright
|
15
|
.200
|
.294
|
.200
|
.494
|
|
Luis Castillo
|
7
|
.143
|
.250
|
.143
|
.393
|
|
Angel Pagan
|
6
|
.333
|
.429
|
.500
|
.929
|
|
Fernando Tatis
|
4
|
.500
|
.600
|
.500
|
1.100
|
|
Jason Bay
|
3
|
.333
|
.333
|
.333
|
.667
|
|
Ike Davis
|
3
|
.333
|
.333
|
.333
|
.667
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
2
|
.500
|
.500
|
2.000
|
2.500
|
|
Alex Cora
|
2
|
.500
|
.667
|
.500
|
1.167
|
|
Rod Barajas
|
2
|
.500
|
.667
|
1.000
|
1.667
|
|
Chris Carter
|
1
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
On Saturday, Jon Niese makes his return from the DL to face the team he suffered his hamstring injury against. Prior to getting hurt, Niese was struggling a bit, which is to be expected of any young pitcher. In his last full start against the Nationals, he only went 4.1 innings in which he threw 91 pitches and allowed 6 runs on 6 hits. Then in his next start, when he left in the third inning with the injury, he had thrown 46 pitches in 2+ innings, and allowed 5 runs (2 earned) on 8 hits. Hopefully the couple weeks he had to recover help him settle himself and go back to the way he pitched in April.
Meanwhile, the Mets will face off against Nate Robertson. Here’s a look at the team’s numbers against the journyman lefty:
| METS HITTER |
AB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Luis Castillo
|
26
|
.308
|
.379
|
.308
|
.687
|
|
Gary Matthews Jr.
|
18
|
.278
|
.316
|
.389
|
.705
|
|
Rod Barajas
|
18
|
.333
|
.400
|
.389
|
.789
|
|
Jason Bay
|
7
|
.286
|
.286
|
.286
|
.571
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
5
|
.600
|
.714
|
1.200
|
1.914
|
|
David Wright
|
5
|
.400
|
.333
|
1.000
|
1.333
|
|
Angel Pagan
|
5
|
.400
|
.500
|
.400
|
.900
|
|
Fernando Tatis
|
4
|
.250
|
.333
|
.250
|
.583
|
|
Jeff Francoeur
|
4
|
.500
|
.500
|
.750
|
1.250
|
|
Jose Reyss
|
3
|
.333
|
.333
|
.333
|
.667
|
|
Ike Davis
|
3
|
.333
|
.333
|
.667
|
1.000
|
The series wraps up Sunday with Hisanori Takahashi looking to rebound from his last start against the Padres, where he allowed more than just his first run as a starter. Takahashi allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings. Despite that outing, Takahashi’s numbers are still outstanding, which just goes to show how well he’s been pitching this season. His FIP is an exceptional 2.79 and his K/9 rate is 9.64, despite only striking out just one batter Monday night in San Diego.
Every Mets fan knows the Mets have had success against Nolasco, so these big numbers shouldn’t be any surprise:
| METS HITTER |
AB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
David Wright
|
41
|
.341
|
.386
|
.659
|
1.045
|
|
Jose Reyes
|
35
|
.400
|
.417
|
.743
|
1.160
|
|
Jeff Francoeur
|
26
|
.308
|
.321
|
.654
|
.975
|
|
Jason Bay
|
17
|
.235
|
.278
|
.294
|
.572
|
|
Luis Castillo
|
16
|
.375
|
.389
|
.375
|
.764
|
|
Fernando Tatis
|
9
|
.222
|
.222
|
.444
|
.667
|
|
Alex Cora
|
8
|
.500
|
.556
|
.875
|
1.431
|
|
Angel Pagan
|
8
|
.375
|
.500
|
.500
|
1.000
|
|
Rod Barajas
|
4
|
.250
|
.200
|
.250
|
.450
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
3
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
|
Chris Carter
|
3
|
.333
|
.333
|
.333
|
.667
|
|
Gary Matthews Jr.
|
2
|
.000
|
.333
|
.000
|
.333
|
|
Ike Davis
|
2
|
.000
|
.333
|
.000
|
.333
|
Expect the Marlins outfielders to be playing as if their jobs are on the line because…well…they are, as top prospect Mike Stanton is rumored to be getting called up from AAA next week.
Leave a comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Carter, david Wright, Fernando Tatis, Gary Matthews Jr., Henry Blanco, Hisanori Takahashi, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathon Niese, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Marlins, Mets, Mike Stanton, Nate Robertson, R.A. Dickey, Ricky Nolasco, Rod Barajas | posted in Uncategorized
The Major League Baseball season is almost a third of the way through and prior to tonight’s game vs the Padres the Mets are sitting at .500 with a 26 and 26 record. They went 14-9 in April, but just 12-17 in May, yet they are only 3.5 games behind the Phillies for first place. They are 19-9 at home, but only 7-17 on the road. They are 5-11 in one run games and 2-4 in extra innings. They have outscored their opponents with 235 runs scored to 219 runs against.
The Mets have slipped a bit in walk percentage and strikeout percentage after being tied for third in the NL through one month of the season, leaving them in 8th with a .50 k/bb%. They are tied for 12th in all three triple slash categories, hitting an umimpressive .254/.326/.394. Their BABIP ranks 14th in the NL at .294 but that mark isn’t very far off the league mean. They’ve fared a little better in terms of ranks in ISO with a .140 mark. They do rank first with a 6.3 speed rating. They’ve only hit 41 home runs this season, but have hit 16 triples which is good for third in the NL. The extra base hits should continue to come, especially as Reyes and Pagan continue to heat up and Beltran due to return sometime this summer. The Mets have the lowest gb% and fb% in the NL which leaves them with a 1.01 gb%/fb%. They also have the second lowest ld% with a 16.9 mark. Their 7.1 hr/fb% should trend up some, while their 12.1 iffb% should trend downwards a bit.
Since the beginning of May, the Mets’ k/9 has dropped a bit from 8.05 to 7.60 but they still are walking an NL high 4.42 batters per 9 innings. They are middle of the pack in the NL with a .93 hr/9. The pitchers have a combined .311 BABIP and a 76.2% strand rate. Their FIP has regressed from 3.90 in the beginning of May to 4.32 with an xFIP of 4.52. Injuries to John Maine and Jon Niese have derailed the Mets pitching some, so they’ll likely need Hisanori Takahashi to step up and prove he can put in quality outings like his first two if the Mets are to improve upon any of these marks.
Still early in the season, but the Mets fielders have played relatively well. They are in 5th in the NL with a 3.7 UZR/150, and are in positive territory in all components of UZR (range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs, and error runs combined). Angel Pagan has been outstanding in CF with a 7.4 UZR, while Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo have both been in positive territory with a 1.1 and .9 UZR, respectively. They are third in the NL in that ancient FP% stat, and have only made 27 errors, good for fourth in the NL.
The Mets are beginning to get better performances from their position players and it is without question June will be a pivotal month for this team to hopefully get a few or more games above .500. Niese should be returning to the mound shortly, but their pitching will be far from safe even then. Takahashi or R.A. Dickey could man the 5th spot, but it may be time for Omar to make a trade for a SP, with John Maine and Oliver Perez unable to be relied upon to give quality outings any time this season, or perhaps, ever again as members of the Mets. Three roster changes to look for in June: Jenrry Mejia getting stretched out to start, Carlos Beltran’s return to the lineup and the inevitable (!?) Jeff Francoeur/Angel Pagan platoon, and Oliver Perez’s fate.
Leave a comment | tags: Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, Hisanori Takahashi, Jeff Francoeur, Jenrry Mejia, John Maine, Jon Niese, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez, R.A. Dickey | posted in Uncategorized
After the road trip from hell, the Mets come stumbling home and will open the first of a three game set with their crosstown rivals, and defending World Champions, the New York Yankees. Just what they need to get back on track! This homestand could very well determine the fate of Jerry Manuel and company, so some extra emphasis is added to this series, which will feature a couple of very interesting pitching matchups.
Tonight, Hisanori Takahashi will make his first Major League start against Javy Vazquez. Interleague play might be a huge break for Vazquez, whose 8.01 ERA and 6.48 FIP suggest that he can’t pitch in the American League. As for Takahashi, the 35 year old rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this year, posting a 2.69 FIP in 26 innings of relief. It will be interesting to see how long Manuel will stretch him out, as he has yet to throw more than 60 pitches. RA Dickey was apparently available in relief last night, so he should probably be available again tonight.
Here’s a look at how the Mets have stacked up against Vazquez. It’s worth noting Luis Castillo has a home run off him:
Saturday night should be an exciting night for my good friend and colleague, Matt Falzano, as Mike “he’s better than Phil Hughes” Pelfrey will go head-to-head with…the one and only Phil Hughes! Hughes has been stellar for the Yankees this year, posting a 2.25 ERA, 3.12 FIP, and an 8.59 K/9 ratio in the daunting AL East. Mike Pelfrey’s numbers, though good, are not quite as impressive: 3.02 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a 6.04 K/9 ratio. It should be an interesting duel between two up and coming New York stars.
There is not nearly enough of a sample size for any Mets hitters to post a chart. Jason Bay has the most at-bats against Hughes and is 1-for-6 with four strikeouts. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira has a .308 average off Big Pelf in 13 at bats.
The best matchup of the series will come in the finale Sunday night, as CC Sabathia goes up against Johan Santana. The last time Santana pitched on Sunday night was a total nightmare, so hopefully there won’t be a repeat performance. Johan has only struggled with two Yankees in his career: Derek Jeter (.423, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 26 AB) and Robinson Cano (.412, 1 RBI, 17 AB).
Heres a look at how the Mets have fared against Carsten Charles:
Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Unlike the last homestand, the Mets will be playing in some much better conditions. Tonight calls for 75 degrees and clear skies, with 11mph winds from ESE and Saturday will be the 71 with 9mph winds from the same direction. Sunday could be a little bit of a damper, however, as the forecast calls for a chance of showers and temperatures in the low-mid 60s with 10mph winds from ENE. According to weather.com the most favorable conditions for the Mets are day games (which there will be none of this series) with temperatures between 46 and 60 (also not happening) and winds out to left field (nope). Excellent!
1 comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, CC Sabathia, david Wright, Derek Jeter, Fernando Tatis, Gary Matthews Jr., Henry Blanco, Hisanori Takahashi, Jason Bay, Javy Vazquez, Jeff Francoeur, Jerry Manuel, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Mark Teixeira, Mets, Mike Pelfrey, New York Yankees, Phil Hughes, RA Dickey, Robinson Cano, Rod Barajas | posted in Uncategorized
In just the past few days the Mets’ starting pitching situation has been looking pretty bleak, not that it was a wealth of riches before. Oliver Perez has been banished to the bullpen (is there any chance that he can just stay there until his contract expires?). Jon Niese has a strained hamstring, reminiscent of last year’s leg injury that ended his season prematurely. And John Maine continues to labor from start to start, trying to will his way through 6 innings. Have you ever seen a pitcher work so hard to achieve such mediocre results? As Matt pointed out in this article, the Mets choices are limited both on the major league level and dipping into the minors.
So what are the other options?
There’s always the possibility of a trade. Roy Oswalt’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors indicating that if traded, he would like to go to a contending club. Not sure if the Mets qualify under his criteria of “contending”, but he would certainly be a good sidekick to Johan Santana. But the Mets would have to trade some pieces to get an Oswalt. Presumably, Ike Davis is not for sell as is Jenrry Mejia who was just sent down to the minor to resume his career path as a starter. Fernando Martinez remains a trade chip, but for an aging pitcher with back problems like Oswalt, Martinez would be a high price. Once Carlos Beltran is shown to be healthy, Angel Pagan could be viable trade bait that could actually land a usable pitcher.
But the problem with a trade is that it’s early in the year and teams are still trying to settle into the season and many general managers are not sure as of yet if they are buyers or sellers. Certainly any trade the Mets could pull off would probably not result in the highest return of value for whoever they gave up.
So where else do the Mets look for pitching? How about the free agent market?
They are some notable names that are still unsigned and looking for possible opportunities to play. Paul Byrd (39), Brandon Backe (32), Daniel Cabrera (29), Mark Prior (29) and John Smoltz (43) are all still available but highly risky choices as they are either coming back from injuries or perhaps fighting back the onset of time.
Pedro Martinez (38) is also still available. He proved to be a decent weapon for Philadelphia last year. The thing about Pedro is that irregardless of his waning abilities, he still has a fire in his belly to compete and he can usually go through a batting order a couple of times simply outthinking the opposing hitters. But Pedro is a fragile, aging talent and his arm has seen a lot of mileage.
And then there’s Jarrod Washburn (35), who is probably the best and healthiest arm available and certainly able to help out a team in need. Granted, he’s not an ace pitcher, but when you look at the group that currently makes up the Mets rotation, Washburn is certainly an upgrade over some of the pitchers that are currently taking the mound for the Mets.
Washburn has a career 4.10 ERA and a 107 – 109 lifetime record. Over the past 9 years, he’s averaged 182 innings per season which at least shows some consistency. Early in 2009, he was pitching over his head with Seattle compiling a 2.64 ERA in a 133 innings before being traded to Detroit where the wheels fell off. Historical trend analysis on Washburn could have predicted the regression in Detroit and Washburn finished the season with a typical Washburn-like season: good but not great.
Washburn has always been an A.L. pitcher and like a Javier Vazquez could potentially thrive in the weaker hitting N.L. He’s been very effective at neutralizing left-handed hitters throughout his career with lefties hitting just .237 off of him and a WHIP of 1.12. This would work nicely against division rivals like the Phillies.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle standing in the way for the Mets is that Washburn is a Scott Boras client. Back in January, Washburn had turned down a $5 million offer from the Twins. Last year Washburn was paid $10.35 million. This is big money for a player, but last year Washburn had a WAR (wins above replacement player) of 2.1 which converts to about $9.4 million in today’s market. So Boras will make a case for Washburn to earn pretty close to that kind of money.
Granted as the season moves along, the contract demands may lessen, but Boras plays extreme hardball for his clients. He’s the kind of agent that could take a pig, put a dress and lipstick on it and make you want to take it to the prom as your date. Look how he feed Oliver Perez to the Mets making them believe they were getting crème brulee when all he really is is 5 year-old Christmas fruit cake that’s been passed around and re-gifted.
But Washburn could be an interesting choice to anchor the Mets and provide some consistency from start to start. If the Mets have money to spend, he’s the best option out there and he wouldn’t cost the team any talent from their farm system. Washburn may not be a good fit for teams like the Angels, Giants or that team over in the Bronx. But for the Mets…I repeat, for the Mets…he could be a tulip in a field of poison ivy.
Leave a comment | tags: Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis, Jarrod Washburn, Jenrry Mejia, Johan Santana, John Maine, Jonathon Niese, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez | posted in Uncategorized
Well if that wasn’t the weekend from hell, I don’t know what is. Thanks to the four game sweep of the Marlins, these next two short series could be pivitol for the fate of Jerry Manuel and co. With the Yankees visiting Citi Field this weekend, followed by the Phillies, if the Mets do not gather themselves in Atlanta and Washington, the 2010 season may have crashed and burned before we even get to Memorial Day.
Luckily the Mets get a break, as they will not have to face some of the great pitching the Braves have to offer. Tonight, Mike Pelfrey takes the mound against Derek Lowe. Big Pelf will have to be careful with Brian McCann, who has a .464 average against him with a home run and seven RBI. As for Lowe, Luis Castillo and David Wright have a nice stat line, but other than that the righty sinkerballer has kept Mets hitters in check.
Tomorrow, the Mets will catch a huge break as Kris Medlen will come out of the bullpen to make a spot start for the Braves, with Jair Jurrjens on the DL. Meanwhile, the Amazins will throw out Johan Santana. On paper, this is a gimmie game for the Mets, but as we all know, there really is no such thing with this team. The Braves have had some success off Johan. Troy Glaus has a .333 average in 24 ABs with a home run, and Chipper Jones has hit .294 off the Mets ace. Brian McCann also has two home runs off Santana.
The numbers for Met hitters against Medlen are rather useless to look at, but here they are nonetheless:
Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): The weather for the series should be a non-factor, with temparatures expected to be in the upper 70s both nights. On Tuesday, there will be 13mph winds WNW, but that should have little impact, if any. This is all good news for the Mets, as they have won eight games in clear skies and have won 10 games with winds of less than 15mph.
Leave a comment | tags: Alex Cora, Angel Pagan, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, david Wright, Derek Lowe, Fernando Tatis, Gary Matthews Jr., Henry Blanco, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Kris Medlen, Luis Castillo, Mike Pelfrey, Rod Barajas, Troy Glaus | posted in Uncategorized
