Tag Archives: Cliff Lee

August 8, 2010

Mets Trying to Change Complexion

By Richard Gross

It’s hard to believe that the Mets haven’t won back-to-back games since June 23rd when they did it against Detroit. Yet, the streak continued on Sunday with a 6-5 loss to Philadelphia. The Mets did fight back but unfortunately, and so customarily, they fell short. It was a game that saw Fernando Martinez get his first start of the season in left field. At 9 games back in the division and 7.5 back in the wild card race, it appears that the Mets have decided to give some of their up-and-comers a shot. What the heck.

There were some trade rumor grumblings and suspicions that both Ruben Tejada and Martinez might have been part of some trade package. Seattle seemed to have been the interested party and word was out that Jeff Francoeur might have been included in a deal that would have sent Chone Figgins to the Mets. But as of yet, that trade has not materialized. Instead they were both brought up to the parent club and Alex Cora was let go. A move that was long overdue.

Martinez will get some much needed Major League experience and it will also allow the Mets to showcase him a little in case there are suitors for his services. Ike Davis made an impression early on with the Seattle Mariners so much so that Seattle was willing to trade Cliff Lee to the Mets for a deal that included Davis. The Mets balked at the deal, but Martinez hasn’t really made the strides the Mets were hoping that he’d make. He’s already gotten a reputation for being injury prone and has been dropping steadily in Baseball America’s prospect ratings year after year. In 2008, Martinez was the #20 ranked prospect in baseball than fell to #30 in 2009. In 2010, he slipped to #77. The Mets might be more inclined to include Martinez in a deal that made sense.

While the Mets are trying to infuse some youthful energy into their daily lineup, the arrivals of Martinez and Tejada has been off-putting to some. Francoeur has been told that he will be platooning with Martinez in right field. A few weeks back, Francoeur was having to come to grips with the fact that he was going to be losing playing time to Angel Pagan with Carlos Beltran coming off the DL. Francoeur appeared OK with that. He understood that Beltran’s bat needed to be in the lineup and Pagan has been one of the more consistent and surprising Mets players all year. But with Jason Bay out, the Mets needed Francoeur to step back into his right field role. But now, Francoeur seems a little less flexible with sharing time with Martinez. So much so, that Francoeur has had some closed door meeting with Jerry Manuel.

Tejada’s arrival also means that Luis Castillo will be riding the bench more. Castillo will still hit better than Tejada but Castillo’s slash line of .259/.322/.315 since the All Star break, won’t win him any medals, so if the Mets are wanting to cultivate Tejada, it would seem that Castillo will find a nice warm spot next to Francoeur on the bench.

None of these maneuvers are game changers. However, neither Francoeur, Castillo or for that matter Cora are difference makers that will help to win games on a consistent basis. The Mets are trying to change the complexion of the team and that means that some players, and some good guys, have to sit or be let go. These are the tough and sometimes unpleasant decisions that a team struggling for direction need to make.

Unfortunately, the most obvious decision and the one the Mets are still unwilling to make is the release of Oliver Perez. Now that would be a game changer.

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June 29, 2010

SP Trends 6/25-6/27 (Pelfrey, Santana, Niese)

By mfgz

The Mets took two of three from the Twins, as they won their sixth series in June.  Headed by strong performances by Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese, the Mets went into the Florida series 11 games above .500.  Johan Santana’s struggles continued on Saturday, and he is still unable to amass the  strikeout totals we are used to seeing.

pelfrey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.69 3.07 0.54 0.273 81.0 49.3 6.5 2.71 3.67 4.15
thru 6/25 5.86 3.27 0.48 0.275 80.7 50.4 6.0 2.69 3.61 4.12
career 5.26 3.34 0.67 0.308 71.6 49.9 7.7 4.26 4.21 4.57

Mike Pelfrey got his 10th win of the season, throwing117 pitches (77 strikes)  in 6 innings of work.  He give up 2 runs, 1 of which was a solo shot to Denard Span, on 6 hits and 0 walks.  He struck out 2 and induced 8 groundouts and 6 flyouts.  Pelfrey’s k/9 has come back down the past few starts.  His strand rate and babip are still better than his career marks, but with his strikeout rate regressing towards his career norm, you have to wonder how much of his success is luck.  One stat that isn’t shown here is his first pitch strike % which rests above 65%, 7 points higher than his career average.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.71 2.86 0.69 0.281 74.3 36.4 5.8 3.55 3.84 4.67
thru 6/26 5.69 2.85 0.73 0.274 76.5 37.0 6.0 3.31 3.90 4.71
career 8.93 2.51 0.97 0.287 77.2 37.8 9.2 3.14 3.41 3.46

Johan Santana picked up his fifth loss of the season on Saturday, throwing 107 pitches in 6 innings of work.  He gave up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks.  4 of those hits went for extra bases.  Santana struck out 4 and induced 7 groundouts and 4 flyouts.  His velocity,  swinging strike percentage, and first pitch strike percentage are all decreasing, while his contact rates are increasing.  It’s no secret his overall effectiveness has been on a decline.  This year it is much more pronounced.

niese k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 6.84 3.24 0.72 0.330 73.9 51.3 8.3 3.84 3.93 4.20
thru 6/27 6.78 3.13 0.78 0.336 72.0 49.1 8.6 4.17 4.02 4.27
career 6.75 3.45 0.71 0.336 72.0 49.6 7.8 4.32 3.93 4.27

Jonathon Niese bounced back on Sunday to improve to 5-2 on the season.  He threw 104 pitches (68 strikes) in 6 innings of work.   He only yielded 4 hits, but walked 3 batters.  Niese struck out 5, and induced an outstanding 12 groundouts, and 1 flyout.  There’s not much to complain about with Niese right now.  There still seems to be some room for improvement in his babip, though he can be a bit hittable at times with his fastball only topping out in the very low 90s.  I don’t think he’ll need to be included in a package to net Cliff Lee, and I think Omar is smart enough to keep this young lefty stud in the rotation for years to come.

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June 20, 2010

SP Trends 6/15-6/17 (Santana, Niese, Dickey)

By mfgz

The New York Mets swept the Cleveland Indians on Thursday as they won seven straight heading into their weekend series with the New York Yankees.  The Mets are playing some of the best baseball in the majors and getting contributions from many young players.  Their rotation has been key in this June surge, so let’s take a look at how the starters fared against The Tribe and how their key metrics are trending.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.77 2.93 0.68 0.270 77.1 36.6 5.5 3.13 3.82 4.71
thru 6/15 6.14 2.96 0.64 0.272 78.0 36.1 5.1 2.96 3.65 4.63
career 8.95 2.51 0.97 0.286 77.4 37.8 9.2 3.12 3.40 3.46

Johan Santana recorded his fifth win of the season on Wednesday, though once again he did so by getting outs via balls in play as he only struck out one.  Johan Santana’s k/9 has dropped to below 6 for the first time this season.   He’s starting to give up home runs, which for the first third of the season, seemed to be the metric keeping his era respectable.  He’s still pitching well for a pitcher who isn’t striking anyone out, and his fly ball tendencies haven’t gotten him into too much trouble yet.  His hr/fb% is still 4 points below his career average.  His xFIP sits at an ugly 4.71 and sooner or later his fly balls are going to turn into home runs.  A sub 6 k/9 and an elevated walk rate is not a pretty combo for a fly ball pitcher.  Concern is definitely warranted.

niese k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 6.72 2.94 0.70 0.331 73.9 50.0 8.2 3.64 3.77 4.05
thru 6/16 7.06 2.98 0.63 0.336 73.1 52.2 7.7 3.61 3.60 3.93
career 6.66 3.29 0.69 0.340 71.7 48.6 7.7 4.24 3.83 4.19

Jonathon Niese followed up his complete game performance with another strong outing, going 7 innings and striking out 3.  He induced 8 ground ball outs and 8 fly ball outs and is continuing to impress without huge strikeout totals.  He improved to 4-2 on the season, as trade rumors whirl about Seattle’s interest in him as they look to find a suitor with available cash for Cliff Lee.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets decide to do, since their true ace Santana, is clearly on the decline.  Like Mike Pelfrey, Niese induces 50% ground balls, and in a large ballpark his value is even greater as the fly balls he does give up yield home runs well below the league average.  Niese’s babip has stabilized a bit, after being the high 3s for the first two months of the season, and it still has room to regress towards the league average.

dickey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 7.28 2.82 0.47 0.342 80.1 50.8 5.6 2.82 3.13 3.74
thru 6/17 6.68 2.78 0.56 0.329 82.9 49.5 6.3 2.78 3.36 3.90
career 5.65 3.53 1.33 0.320 70.6 44.1 12.3 5.22 5.02 4.69

R.A. Dickey perpetuated the Mets win streak, and his own, as he improved to 5-0 and his young season.   He’s seeing success by limiting balls into play with a 7.28 k/9 which is significantly higher than his 5.65 career mark.  He also has improved his ground ball rate about 4% points this season, as his gb% is an impressive 50.8%.   He has been stranding runners at a clip of 80% which is bound to regress, though his babip of .342 has room to regress too.  The Mets have to keep handing Dickey the ball, no matter what happens when John Maine and Oliver Perez return from their DL stints.

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July 29, 2009

The Phils get Cliff Lee…and the Mets look to 2010

By Richard Gross

While Omar Minaya stayed out of the limelight today and prepared his flaming bag of poop for Adam Rubin, his Phillies counterpart Ruben Amaro, JR pulled a meisterstroke and got Cliff Lee from the selling Cleveland Indians. Let’s look into the deal that more or less sealed the deal in the National League East for 2009.

The Phillies get Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco. Francisco is a righty outfielder that has been hot (.329/.435/.643 in July) and has played 35 games in center field, but is only passable anywhere in the outfield (-5.9 runs in center field career, -11.8 runs overall this year). He’s better against lefties (.810 OPS versus southpaws, .755 against righties), so he’ll probably be the guy that spells Raul Ibanez (.758 OPS versus lefties career) against the occasional strong lefty.

Cliff Lee is the big haul. He may not be as good as last year (22-3; 2.54/1.11), but add this year’s numbers look more sustainable (3.14/1.30), although the ERA looks a little low for that WHIP. He does it by not walking anyone (BB/9 under 2 two straight years), and striking out enough to keep the opponents honest. One big step forward for him last year, which he sustained last year, was getting his fly ball rate down under 40% for the first time. That’s huge for him going into that bandbox in Philadelphia. Expect his HR/9 rate to go up (1.02 career, .59 this year), but the ERA may not change much as he’ll have some free outs while pitching to opposing pitchers.

Lee immediately vaults a previously suspect pitching staff into the elite in the division and decent in the league. Cole Hamels, Lee, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and J.A. Happ is solid all the way through and strong at the top. Now the team has no need to depend on Pedro Martinez, another plus.

The best part of the whole deal for Philadelphia is that it didn’t give up any of the elite prospects that the Toronto Blue Jays were rumored to covet. The team’s top-4 prospects, outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, and pitchers Happ and Kyle Drabek are still in the organization, which is a huge coup. That is not to say that the Phillies did not give anything up. Cleveland got an okay haul, but the group lacks a high upside, impact player.

Carlos Carrasco doesn’t have great overall statistics in the minor leagues (4.14/1.32), but recently the righty has been striking out about a quarter of the batters he’s faced, and his 8 K/9 career is promising. His fastball can reach the mid nineties but is usually in the low 90s, but it’s his changeup that is his outpitch. He’s also improved his walk rate steadily over the last three years and can probably be a middle-of-the-rotation starter if he continues to refine his slider and smooth out his motion.  Right there, an alarm bell should have gone off in Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro‘s head. Shouldn’t the best prospect in the deal have the upside of the player you are giving up?

Some reports have the jewel of the trade as single-A righty Jason Knapp, however. He certainly has nice numbers, but he was born in 1990. He won’t be in the majors for a little while. 11+ K/9 with a sub-1.2 WHIP means that there is a lot to like. The thinking is that if he can’t harness his secondary pitches better, he’ll end up in the bullpen.

Catcher Lou Marson has some defensive questions, but his .276/.372/.388 line provides some optimism for his bat, even if its a little underpowered. In the higher minors, he’s shown he can hit for average and if he stays behind the plate, he can give his new team some insurance if top prospect Carlos Santana doesn’t work out. (This also means that Victor Martinez is probably out the door, and I’d guess he’ll go to Boston.)

Shortstop Jason Donald rounds out the four-man group. He is really struggling this year (.235/.296/.33) across two levels), but his overall line (.286/.369/.436) is impressive for a shortstop. He’s shown good range (3.93) and has cut his errors this year all the way down to four in 51 games. He can be a shorstop, the question is, will he hit?

So the haul wasn’t impressive and it’s possible that Mark Shapiro got took. On the other hand, this should be doubly upsetting to the average Met fan: Not only did the Phillies get better, but there’s no way that Omar Minaya could have made this deal. He doesn’t have the prospects, no matter what he claims. Prospects #5-9 on the Mets wouldn’t have gotten the team 2 months of Jarrod Washburn, much less 8 months of Cliff Lee.

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