Tag Archives: Gary Sheffield

September 30, 2009

How Bad is the Mets Defense?

By Richard Gross

After Tuesday’s embarrassing loss to the Nationals in which the deciding run scored on a throwing error by Luis Castillo in the bottom of the eighth, manager Jerry Manuel put forth the regular platitudes about shaping up and playing better defensive ball. It occurred to me that beyond the management of the pitching staff, defense was probably the best area of the game for a manager to make his imprint. Defensive drills and positioning could go a long way towards helping the team play better defense.

Upon checking the numbers, I was surprised to find that the Mets are possibly the worst defensive team in baseball. That’s right, the worst. Their UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) is -6.2, meaning that the average Met is 6.2 runs worse defensively than the average Major League baseball player. The Twins are at -6.0 and, not surprisingly for a veteran team, the Yankees are next at -4.8. All the way on the other end of the spectrum, the Mariners are 9.2 runs better, on average, per 150 games.

Roll back the clock to 2008, though, and the Mets were 4.4 runs better than average and fifth in the league. What happened?

It may just be the same story as what happened to the rest of the team. Take away Jose Reyes (+1.8 UZR/150 career) and replace him with Alex Cora (-5.4 UZR/150 this year). Then replace Carlos Beltran (+3.6 UZR/150 career) with Angel Pagan (-1.4 UZR/150 in CF career). Add in an 85-year old left fielder in Gary Sheffield (-23.1 UZR/150 this year) and a little seasoning from fellow octogenarian Luis Castillo (-10.5 UZR/150 this year), and you’ve got your bad defense right there.

Of course, turning Carlos Delgado (-3.8 UZR/150 career) into Daniel Murphy (+5.2 UZR/150) this year was a turn for the positive. Also, Jeff Francouer (+5.9 UZR/150 career) was a positive addition, even if most of his defensive ability is built into his rocket arm. But a couple fingers in the dike does not stop a flood.

Looking at these numbers, it’s hard to really blame Manuel. Castillo has been declining defensively for years, and Manuel did not sign him to that stupid contract. Sheffield can barely move in the outfield. Manuel didn’t hurt Beltran’s knees or take out Reyes’ hammy. All he can do is run the defensive drills and try to put his best defensive team on the grass.

But Omar Minaya? It looks like it’s time to put Luis Castillo out of his misery. He’s giving up more runs on defense than he’s creating on offense, and any step back offensively would make him absolutely worthless. Maybe a team doesn’t value defense much and wants Castillo, with some money shaved off the contract. It’s time to do it.

Remember that the easiest way to manufacture a quick turnaround in this game is on defense. Look at last year’s leaders in UZR/150 (the Phillies and the Rays) and learn from them. Get your studs back, and let the old men go. Think about the defense.

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August 24, 2009

The Case FOR Omar Minaya, Cted

By Richard Gross

We recently started the list of moves that have worked out in Omar Minaya‘s credit. At first, the focus was on single moves that he made this year that seemed to have worked out well. Those were signing Angel Pagan, signing Gary Sheffield, and signing Francisco Rodriguez.

Those three moves, though, are indicative of some larger positive trends on Minaya’s side of the ledger. One thing that Minaya has shown he can do is go get the big star. Whether it was Carlos Beltran or Francisco Rodriguez, Minaya has shown the ability to identify the best player at a crucial position and go the extra mile to recruit that free agent. He’s gone to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico while in this capacity, and he has, in the past, had the power of a big checkbook behind him. He’s won those battles.

Of course, just getting big stars at the right positions is only half the battle. Inevitably, free agents will decline because most players don’t hit the free market until after their peak (age 25-27 by most of the research), but the trick seems to be to find the players that will stay healthy and productive longer. The jury is out on most of Minaya’s acquisitions, but now that Johan Santana is meeting with elbow specialists, the question becomes salient.

K-Rod is on the way down – you can see it in his declining strikeout rates and burgeoning walk rates. Beltran was playing some his best ball recently, before hitting a knee injury that has been rumored to need microfracture surgery. Santana was pitching well without incident, but today his teammates speculated that he will need surgery. Yeah, Minaya can put the dog-and-pony show on to get them in, but has he signed the RIGHT free agents? We’ll see.

The Pagan and Sheffield acquisitions are indicative of his ability to find some value on the scrap heap. Before Pagan, there was Endy Chavez. Before Alex Cora, there was Fernando Tatis. These old veterans have provided high return on low investments. There’s no belittling this skill – it’s an actual, bonafide skill that a general manager should have. Minaya can actually find serviceable veterans to fill holes at low prices.

Another point in Minaya’s favor was the Johan Santana trade itself. None of the prospects he gave up in the deal look as enticing now as when Minaya sent them packing. The jewel of the trade, Carlos Gomez, now looks like he could be a fourth outfielder. Despite his great defense, his ever-impatient ways have made him a one-trick pony on offense (all speed, but you can’t steal first!). Philip Humber went from a first-round draft pick to clearing waivers and unwanted by the league. Deolis Guerra’s strikeout rate took a nose dive in Minnesota until he went under the knife recently.

Is this the case with most of the prospects Minaya has given up? Actually, he’s been very good at not trading prospects that have not ended up being diamonds in the rough. The list of flawed players that were once Minaya’s is long: Mike Jacobs, Jason Phillips, Kris Benson, Jeff Keppinger, Evan MacLane, Victor Diaz, Royce Ring, and Henry Owens have all been worse than advertised for their new teams.

In fact, as the Mets GM, Minaya has only let Heath Bell, Yusmeiro Petit, Matt Lindstrom and Brian Bannister slip from between his fingers. And though these guys have been useful to their new teams, Minaya has had much more value on his side of the ledger (from Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca to Shawn Green and Xavier Nady). Minaya wins his trades, for the most part.

So how do you still have a bad minor league system if you haven”t been trading away your best prospects? Ah, now we are getting back into his faults, and another post for another day.

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August 15, 2009

The Mets are Schizophrenic

By Richard Gross

A running theme in the comments threads and the posts here at GodBlessBuckner seems to be that the Mets can’t decide what kind of a team they are. Are they buyers or sellers, as the pre-trade deadline saying goes. Maybe it’s not their fault, given the circumstances. But one thing seems for sure: indecision is the mark of poor teams in baseball.

But first, the Mets. Of course they spend money like a championship contender, but things didn’t work out for them. Injuries took their toll. The three-headed super-star monster of Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes went down and took the team’s offense with it. The rotation, made shaky by poor decisions (Oliver Perez over Derek Lowe), was further worsened by injury to the solid John Maine. The bullpen, which could have been dominant, lost JJ Putz out of the eighth inning and has only been okay since.

On the face of things, the Mets should pack it in for this year. At seven games under even baseball, 12 games out of first in the division with two teams ahead of them, and 9.5 games out of the wild card with six teams between them and the leader, the Mets should realize that this is not the year. The focus should immediately become making next year’s team better.

Perhaps that is what happened when Omar Minaya sat on his hands through the deadline this year. Perhaps he was saving all his bullets for next year. Perhaps.

But there can be no doubt what the Florida Marlins would have done had they found themselves in the spot that the Mets are in now. They would have immediately begun fielding offers for Dan Uggla, a free agent at the end of the year. Players like Jorge Cantu and Jeremy Hermida, who may both become more expensive than they are worth at the end of the year, would have gone on the block too. Any veterans in key roles that may be gone would find a rookie starting for them as the team tried to figure out what they had going into 2010. Hello, Gaby Sanchez.

Does this decisive buyer/seller system work? Well, you can’t argue with the results in the case of the Marlins. They may have some attendance issues, but in terms of winning and losing the Marlins have won more world series titles in their short existence than the Chicago Cubs have won in the past century. Or, for that matter, as many as the Mets have won, in a much shorter period of time.

The attendance issue is a big one for a big-market team like the Mets. Could they have decisively become sellors at the deadline in New York? The prescription seems to be that they should have pushed Gary Sheffield and Luis Castillo agressively, while giving Daniel Murphy and a healthy Fernando Martinez all the at-bats they could handle. Livan Hernandez would have been released by now, and possibly even Pedro Feliciano would have been on the block.

Maybe this sort of prescription only works in smaller markets. The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and Chicago Cubs have all suffered similar fates as the Mets, and are all possibly in markets too large to admit to a focus on the future. The Braves did manage to sell Mark Teixeira in a down year, and have been a little bit more decisive than the Mets seem to be. They’ve also had more recent success. The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, have the same pressures as the Mets: an old veteran team that plays just good enough to avoid an overhaul.

Could the Mets have survived the blitzstorm that would have come from being a seller in this media market? It’s been a long time since one of the New York teams so obviously acted like a Have Not, or took such an obvious focus on Next Year. Would it lose fans in droves? Would the Wilpons be vilified?

Probably. But the team would have been better for it. And fans like winning most of all.

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August 3, 2009

Carlos Delgado out for Season?

By Richard Gross

The Metropolitans showed some spunk tonight and battled back from an early deficit. The team scored five runs. Billy Wagner pitched a 1-2-3 inning against the 3-4-5 hitters in AA today and looks like he might be back (and useful) this year. JJ Putz threw a bullpen and felt no pain. Gary Sheffield got into the game and went one for four and looked pretty good for a forty-year-old.

But, as we’ve said before, there’s always bad news lurking behind the good at Citi Field. First, the small stuff. Billy Wagner and JJ Putz are no starters, and Nelson Figueroa was bombed like the AAAA fill-in pitcher that he is. We love his spunk and all, but he was throwing BP out there today. Sheffield is burning worms, hitting balls on the ground at his second-worst rate in his career.

This is all small potatoes in the end, especially if the news on Carlos Beltran remains as pessimistic as it has. I’m no doctor, but I’m beginning to think we won’t see Delgado in uniform this year.

Let me see if this non-doctor can analyze the situation. He had a growing bone bruise on his knee. Bone bruises that grow turn into stress fractures turn into regular fractures if they growth isn’t halted. Yes, not all bruises are created equal.

So Beltran was told to get off the bruise to make sure it would heal. So he did, for a whole month. Then, a month later, remnants of the bruise remained. A follow up MRI was scheduled. And then the Mets training staff went dark. No reports of a clean and healthy knee.

Then last week came a flurry of reports, mostly from Beltran’s mouth. He was on schedule to play in two-and-a-half weeks. He wasn’t going to be 100%, but he was going to play at 85% in order to help the team. Jerry Manuel said it was about ‘how much pain he could stand’ once he got the knee warmed up. He started taking batting practice. He ran the bases.

And then today, he took outfield flies. After the game, he told reporters from mlb.com that he wouldn’t be able to play at full throttle with the kind of discomfort he was experiencing.

I hear a bunch of hopeful words sandwhiched around a knee problem that will probably need surgery. The dreaded words ‘microfracture’ have been bandied about. I’m no doctor, but this is starting to sound pretty bad. We hope for the best for the Mets center fielder.

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August 2, 2009

Glimmers of Hope

By Richard Gross

Gary Sheffield is activated and on the bench. Carlos Beltran is running with a knee brace. Carlos Delgado is taking batting practice and starting to look healthy. Angel Pagan hit his first home run of the year. Jonathon Niese is finally up in the majors and pitching well. Mike Pelfrey has finally pitched two good games in a row. And the Mets scored nine runs yesterday.

But for every piece of good news there are three pieces of bad news. Jose Reyes couldn’t run the bases and is still hurting. Late August is starting to look like a best-case scenario. Livan Hernandez and Oliver Perez are still in the rotation. Pelfrey’s ERA is still close to five. Beltran’s knee isn’t actually any better, he’s just decided to power through the pain and try to get back and help the team. TBD is the scheduled starter for Monday night. Omar Minaya did nothing to improve the team at the deadline, despite some easily attainable pieces that could have helped and wouldn’t have cost serious prospects.

Last but not least, the bloom is coming off of the Jeff Francoeur rose. After all the talk of having an RBI per game through his Mets career, his .286/.303/.443 slash line as a Met is not inspiring. It also includes his current streak of poor hitting, in which he’s gone two for his last 16 with two RBI over four-plus games. This is about the best the team can expect from their new leftfielder, who has blown a couple plays defensively and won’t ever be much more than an average player with poor on-base skills and sub-par power for a corner outfielder. That’s just the pure, stark naked truth.

What Mets fans are left with is a team that is neither here nor there. Just like Minaya’s silly contention that the Mets were buyers, but wanted to hold on to their prospects, this team does not know if it’s a contender or a pretender. With 444 runs scored and 468 runs allowed, this is a 50-53 team with an expected win-loss record of 49-54. Luck (on the field, at least) has not played a serious factor in their current position in the standings.

Luck off the field, in terms of injuries, has certainly impacted this team negatively and confused the case. If all the studs were healthy, would this team be a contender? That’s hard to tell, but the reality is that the Mets are seven games out of the wild card lead and have seven teams in front of them. Unless they more than halve both of those numbers in the next couple of weeks, the Mets will be licking their wounds this offseason and looking to the future.

And then we’ll all agree that Omar Minaya should have sold off a veteran piece or two for the health of the flagging minor league system.

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June 28, 2009

Yup, The Mets Need a Bat

By Richard Gross

Sure, sending Tim Redding out there against the Yankees lineup was a little sadomasochistic. And the lineup has suffered more significant injuries than any team in recent memory. But this team looks like it could certainly use a bat.

Just a couple days ago, this team looked like it could survive with a bandaid like Scott Hairston or Jason Michaels. That was before two shellackings by the top lineup in baseball. That was before they scored one run in 22 straight innings of play. That was before Gary Sheffield got another cortisone shot in his knee, and before the team began to look like a AAA farm squad. That was before AJ Burnett made them look silly with 10 strikeouts in seven innings of one-hit ball.

It must be difficult to be Omar Minaya right now. He’s right about one thing – it’s hazardous to your continued employment as a general manager to act brashly or out of a need to comfort the masses. But on the other hand, the news is not very good right now. Consider:

Carlos Beltran is on crutches and will not be back in 15 days. Minaya said he’d gladly sign up to get his star outfielder back at the beginning of the second half, but that is beginning to sound hopeful.

Jose Reyes is still not running. He’s jogging and taking batting practice, but no explosions. He wants to be back right after the all-star game, too, but remember what happened last time he came back at 85 percent, ramped it up for a base hit, and ended right back on the DL.

Carlos Delgado has positive reports, but there’s no way they are going to let him play any quicker than the original 10-week deadline of July 28. They’ll wait until early August for this trade-deadline acquisition.

John Maine was scratched from his rehab start, got a cortisone shot, and is talking about coming back after the all-star break. That was after his ‘promising’ four-inning rehab start where he struck out one batter. Uh-oh.

Oliver Perez is going to stay in the minors ‘rehabbing’ his ‘injury’ because he’s been terrible. He had an unconscionable five walks in four and one-thirds of an inning in his first crack at AAA, and there’s talk he’ll be a reliever when he returns.

Angel Pagan is a week away from even beginning his rehab, and how much offense the speedster with a career .732 OPS was really going to help, especially since his .662 OPS against lefties is even worse.

So what should Minaya do? He didn’t want to spend Bobby Parnell on Mark DeRosa, so that name is off the list. Hairston and Michaels suddenly seem like too little in the face of the Met’s slugging percentage, which at .399 is the fifth-worst in the National League. And that woeful slugging number includes contributions from Mets currently sitting on the Pavano.

Aubrey Huff seems like a decent choice, as his defense in the outfield is just as bad as his infield defense. If only he wasn’t a lefty, he’d be the target. Also, Baltimore is known for asking a lot in exchange for its veterans. But at least we know he can hit.

The Mets are only 1.5 games out right now, and it looks like 88-90 wins will win the division, so it’s probably not time to panic. But every game that they run this offense out on the field is another game they’ll have to win in the second half. Some move to bolster the offense might be the pick-me-up this dragging team needs, if only because it will show that Minaya is working to try and replace the lost veterans as well.

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June 22, 2009

Examining Trade Options

By Richard Gross

Just yesterday we took a look at the lineup without Carlos Beltran in it, and boy, was it ugly. Now that he’s out for at least 15 days with a bone bruise, we’ll get a good long look at this lineup. Scroll down for some shivers down the spine. That lineup will depend on Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church to be heroes every night, and as we’ve seen, that can be a dicey proposition. David Wright can’t do all the work alone.

So what should the team be looking for? Let’s look at the flaws of the lineup below before identifying some possible additions.

SS Alex Cora
1B Daniel Murphy
3B David Wright
LF Ryan Church
RF Gary Sheffield
2B Luis Castillo
CF Jeremy Reed
C Omir Santos

Alex Cora‘s limitations are obvious, but the solution is also obvious because acquiring middle infielders is probably more costly than it’s worth. Even though Jose Reyes is still too hurt to run, he’s the best way to fix that spot. Cora is decent enough on defense and is capable of putting up an okay .340 OBP for a little while longer at least. We’ll put backup middle infielder on this list, though, since the Mets currently don’t have one.

Murphy, as reported in the last post, is great against lefties (.306/.341/.500 in 36 at-bats), and could probably use a caddy against tough righties, so let’s add that in: a guy that can play 1B and hits righties well. Unfortunately, in corner outfield, they’ve got a different problem. Ryan Church is playing well again, but he sports a .279/.354/.468 line against righties – and a .252/.323/.383 line against lefties. That last line comes in 342 at-bats, so it’s a significant problem. Church should probably be platooned against lefties, and that need trumps the backup 1B situation, especially since that need could continue once Carlos Delgado returns.

Then again, could the solution be on the team currently? Last year’s revelation, Fernando Tatis, has taken a heck of a step back this year, but his .256/.333/.380 line right now looks suspiciously like his career line (.264/.346/.442). He is marginally better against lefties (.270/.350/.450 lifetime in 793 at-bats), so the best outfield would have him in against lefties, over Church.

But here’s the rub: Jeremy Reed is actually okay against righties lifetime (.715 OPS), and with his capable defense, he could caddy for Beltran – against righties. But what to do against lefties? Tatis and Gary Sheffield can not – I repeat – cannot play center field. And recent callup Fernando Martinez hasn’t played center field in AAA all year (in fact, due to Martinez’s better split against lefties in the minors – .903 OPS vs lefties, .878 OPS vs righties – he’ll probably start in LF over Church against lefties and in RF when Sheffield needs a breather). Obviously, the team needs a center fielder against lefties.

So there you have it: the team most needs a capable outfielder that can hit lefties. Next on the list is a backup middle infielder. Those aren’t the sexiest needs. Probably, the the name coming our way won’t be too exciting. But here are some names of some players that might be available, might be able to play center field or the middle infield, and can hit lefties reasonably well:

Felipe Lopez – Josh Byrnes, the Diamondbacks’ GM, said this before the team lost three straight to the Mariners over the weekend: “It’s the middle of June and we’re 10 games under .500, so I think there’s a reality as far as the types of discussions we have had and will have with other clubs,” Byrnes said. Looks like the team will be a seller, and selling spare parts is the easiest way to pick up some spare prospects. Lopez can play the MI and has a batting average over .300 against lefties over the last two years.

Mark DeRosa – his team is in last place, and his name has been connected with the Mets for some time now. You may be surprised that he’s had close to 300 attempts at shortstop, too. Throw in his lifetime .864 OPS against lefties, and he seems perfect. Unfortunately, those tries at shortstop almost all came in 2001 with the Braves, and he’s not the defender he used to be, so he would be more of an emergency shortstop that can play the corner infield, second base, and the corner outfield. But not center or short. Oh, and he’d probably cost a better prospect.

Aubrey Huff / Nick Johnson – both of their teams would be ready to deal their extra veterans for the right price. But Huff can’t play a premium position on the field, and his .751 OPS against lefties means that he doesn’t add enough to pay a good prospect for his production. Johnson can hit lefties, but he famously cannot play anywhere in the field other than first base. What happens when/if Delgado returns? Expensive bench piece. I doubt either of these is going to happen.

Trevor Crowe – This is just conjecture, but this young Indian is on a seller and is running out of options. Of course, he doesn’t cost the Indians much, so he probably won’t move. But he can play center field, and his .811 minor league split against lefties is better than his split versus righties. This could be a move to complement Jeremy Reed in a smart way. Maybe he’ll be a throw-in if the Mets go for DeRosa.

Scott Hairston – Maybe young Tony Gwynn (currently batting .348/.439/.467) is turning enough heads in San Diego that they can let the older Hairston go (he’s 28 years old). Unfortunately, Hairston was peaking before getting injured, and his numbers are currently inflated. If Minaya can convince the Pads that the numbers are a mirage, he can maybe pry Hairston and his .896 OPS versus lefties loose. He would be a great fit on this team.

Jason Michaels – The list can’t get any less sexy, I assure you. Michaels can play center field, though, and has a .797 OPS versus lefties (.714 versus righties). He could be had for a song, too. And not even a good song.

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June 4, 2009

Reyes Torn Hamstring?

By Richard Gross

Uh-oh. Kevin Burkhardt from SNY is saying Jose Reyes tore his hamstring and he thinks he will be out until the allstar break, five weeks from now. Injuries are the bane of a veteran team, but without the farm system to provide replacements, you’re stuck with Ramon Martinez at shortstop. Time to trade for someone like Clint Barmes instead of the rumored Mark DeRosa? Barmes can play short, and suddenly that seems more important than getting a guy that can play second and first.

With Carlos Delgado out, the team has been depending on Gary Sheffield‘s resurgence to complement David Wright. But Sheffield’s power is mostly gone – he’s hitting a career high in groundballs right now (over 50% for the first time ever), and the balls won’t keep clearing the fence. But maybe he can approximate Delgado for a while.

Ryan Church is coming back as soon as this weekend, and if his manager will play him regularly and add his stellar defense to a recovering offensive game, the team may have enough in the way of run producers until the firepower returns.

How about table setters, though? Barmes gets on base at a career .303 rate – I know, not good. But he’s been better, and he’ll be better than Martinez, I promise. Otherwise, there aren’t many shortstops available around the league, and Alex Cora will get exposed playing every day.

Something should probably be done. This many injuries and the year might just slip away.

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