Tag Archives: Henry Blanco

Padres vs. Mets (6/8-6/10) – Series Preview

What a great upcoming series this will be. The best team in the National League is travelling into Citi Field to face the best team in baseball!…What?…What am I talking about, you say? Well, the Mets DO have the best home record in Major League Baseball. So if they didn’t have to endure that huge inconvenience of going on the road every other week, they would have the best record in baseball! And since they’re at home for this series, I say it’s fair to call them the best team in baseball until Friday, when they turn turn into one of the worst.

You’re also probably wondering how the San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League. I mean, this is an offense that has a .250 team batting average, have scored a mere 242 runs, and are second-to-last in the NL in home runs (42). Yet, even with their offensive struggles, the Friars sport a +54 run differential, the best in the National League.

The key has been their pitching. Coming into this series, the Padres lead MLB with a 3.02 team ERA, are second in MLB with a .231 BAA and are third in the NL with 447 strikeouts. The starting staff has two underrated, young arms which will be facing the Mets this series: Mat Latos and Clayton Richard.

Richard’s last start came last Wednesday against the Mets in San Diego. He pitched well, going 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts in a no-decision. In that start he went up against Johan Santana, who was brilliant. Tonight, he goes up against another Mets starter who has been brilliant all year in Mike Pelfrey. Most of the following stats for Met hitters against Richard are a result of last week:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Alex Cora

6

.000

.143

.000

.143

Angel Pagan

6

.167

.167

.167

.333

David Wright

5

.200

.333

.200

.533

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.500

.400

.900

Rod Barajas

4

.250

.250

.500

.750

Fernando Tatis

3

.667

.667

1.000

1.667

Ike Davis

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Henry Blanco

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Jose Reyes

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Jason Bay

2

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Mat Latos takes the hill tomorrow night against Johan. Latos made one start against the Mets last season, where he went 6 innings and allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory. Since that was his only appearance against the Amazin’s, posting player stats would be pointless. As for Santana, he has not allowed a run in his last two outings, yet doesn’t have a win to show for either, as the Mets offense totaled only 1 run in those starts and the bullpen was unable to hold things together.

In the series finale on Thursday afternoon, a resurgent Jon Garland will take on RA Dickey. Garland was a name thrown around during the off-season for the Mets, and has shown so far that he would have been a nice addition to the starting staff. So far this season, Garland is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA. However, a 4.17 FIP suggests that could change soon. Most of Garland’s success this season has come from the ground ball, as he has a 52% ground ball rate. As for the Mets, here’s how they’ve stacked up against Garland over the years:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Rod Barajas

21

.333

.391

.762

1.153

Alex Cora

13

.231

.231

.385

.615

Henry Blanco

12

.167

.333

.250

.583

David Wright

10

.100

.100

.100

.200

Jeff Francoeur

10

.500

.583

.900

1.483

Fernando Tatis

4

.750

.833

1.000

1.833

Jose Reyes

3

.667

.667

1.333

2.000

Jason Bay

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Angel Pagan

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Tonight should be a nice night for baseball, with mostly sunny skies, tempratures in the low 70s and 11mph winds blowing from NW. If you have or were thinking about getting tickets for tomorrow’s game, however, hold up. The forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s and a 70% chance of rain. On Thursday, the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, with temperatures in the mid 70s and 12mph winds from NW.


Marlins vs. Mets (6-4-6/6): Series at a Glance

After what we’ll call an extended holiday break, I am back with the series preview! I know you’ve all been missing it so much. I mean, where else are you going to get such in depth analysis on upcoming Mets games? Anyway, the Mets continued to show us all that for as good as they are at home, they’re that bad on the road. The good news is they are back home for six games. The bad news is they open the weekend with a three game set against the Marlins, who are 6-1 against the Metropolitans this season, including that horrendous four game sweep in May.

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows: Anibal Sanchez vs. RA Dickey (Friday), Nate Robertson vs. Jonathon Niese (Saturday), Ricky Nolasco vs. Hisanori Takahashi.

RA has been more than serviceable in his short time with the Mets, but the question is will it continue? When comparing his career numbers with his numbers through three starts, most stats are very similar. The one that sticks out, however, if his FIP. RA has a career FIP of 5.15, but so far his FIP this season is 4.31. Tim Wakefield, probably the most notable current knuckleballer, sprots a career FIP of 4.72, so that shows that just how successful RA has been. Now, whether he can sustain that success or if his respectable FIP is just an example of small sample size will be found out through time, but the Mets have to be very happy with his contributions thus far.

Here’s a look at the Mets offense vs. Sanchez:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

21

.190

.190

.381

.571

Jose Reyes

17

.118

.250

.176

.426

David Wright

15

.200

.294

.200

.494

Luis Castillo

7

.143

.250

.143

.393

Angel Pagan

6

.333

.429

.500

.929

Fernando Tatis

4

.500

.600

.500

1.100

Jason Bay 

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Ike Davis

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Henry Blanco

2

.500

.500

2.000

2.500

Alex Cora

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

Rod Barajas

2

.500

.667

1.000

1.667

Chris Carter

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

On Saturday, Jon Niese makes his return from the DL to face the team he suffered his hamstring injury against. Prior to getting hurt, Niese was struggling a bit, which is to be expected of any young pitcher. In his last full start against the Nationals, he only went 4.1 innings in which he threw 91 pitches and allowed 6 runs on 6 hits. Then in his next start, when he left in the third inning with the injury, he had thrown 46 pitches in 2+ innings, and allowed 5 runs (2 earned) on 8 hits. Hopefully the couple weeks he had to recover help him settle himself and go back to the way he pitched in April.

Meanwhile, the Mets will face off against Nate Robertson. Here’s a look at the team’s numbers against the journyman lefty:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

26

.308

.379

.308

.687

Gary Matthews Jr.

18

.278

.316

.389

.705

Rod Barajas

18

.333

.400

.389

.789

Jason Bay

7

.286

.286

.286

.571

Henry Blanco

5

.600

.714

1.200

1.914

David Wright

5

.400

.333

1.000

1.333

Angel Pagan

5

.400

.500

.400

.900

Fernando Tatis

4

.250

.333

.250

.583

Jeff Francoeur

4

.500

.500

.750

1.250

Jose Reyss

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Ike Davis

3

.333

.333

.667

1.000

The series wraps up Sunday with Hisanori Takahashi looking to rebound from his last start against the Padres, where he allowed more than just his first run as a starter. Takahashi allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings. Despite that outing, Takahashi’s numbers are still outstanding, which just goes to show how well he’s been pitching this season. His FIP is an exceptional 2.79 and his K/9 rate is 9.64, despite only striking out just one batter Monday night in San Diego.

Every Mets fan knows the Mets have had success against Nolasco, so these big numbers shouldn’t be any surprise:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

David Wright

41

.341

.386

.659

1.045

Jose Reyes

35

.400

.417

.743

1.160

Jeff Francoeur

26

.308

.321

.654

.975

Jason Bay

17

.235

.278

.294

.572

Luis Castillo

16

.375

.389

.375

.764

Fernando Tatis

9

.222

.222

.444

.667

Alex Cora

8

.500

.556

.875

1.431

Angel Pagan

8

.375

.500

.500

1.000

Rod Barajas

4

.250

.200

.250

.450

Henry Blanco

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Chris Carter

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Gary Matthews Jr.

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Ike Davis

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Expect the Marlins outfielders to be playing as if their jobs are on the line because…well…they are, as top prospect Mike Stanton is rumored to be getting called up from AAA next week.


Yankees vs. Mets (5/21-5/23): Subway Series Preview

After the road trip from hell, the Mets come stumbling home and will open the first of a three game set with their crosstown rivals, and defending World Champions, the New York Yankees. Just what they need to get back on track! This homestand could very well determine the fate of Jerry Manuel and company, so some extra emphasis is added to this series, which will feature a couple of very interesting pitching matchups.

Tonight, Hisanori Takahashi will make his first Major League start against Javy Vazquez. Interleague play might be a huge break for Vazquez, whose 8.01 ERA and 6.48 FIP suggest that he can’t pitch in the American League. As for Takahashi, the 35 year old rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this year, posting a 2.69 FIP in 26 innings of relief. It will be interesting to see how long Manuel will stretch him out, as he has yet to throw more than 60 pitches. RA Dickey was apparently available in relief last night, so he should probably be available again tonight.

Here’s a look at how the Mets have stacked up against Vazquez. It’s worth noting Luis Castillo has a home run off him:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

72

.361

.418

.458

.876

Alex Cora

21

.381

.409

.429

.838

Henry Blanco

20

.200

.273

.400

.673

Rod Barajas

15

.133

.188

.133

.321

Jose Reyes

13

.231

.286

.385

.670

Jason Bay

12

.167

.231

.167

.397

Fernando Tatis

10

.300

.417

.500

.917

Gary Matthews Jr.

10

.600

.600

1.100

1.700

David Wright

8

.375

.444

.875

1.319

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.400

1.000

1.400

Angel Pagan

3

.333

.333

.667

1.000

Saturday night should be an exciting night for my good friend and colleague, Matt Falzano, as Mike “he’s better than Phil Hughes” Pelfrey will go head-to-head with…the one and only Phil Hughes! Hughes has been stellar for the Yankees this year, posting a 2.25 ERA, 3.12 FIP, and an 8.59 K/9 ratio in the daunting AL East. Mike Pelfrey’s numbers, though good, are not quite as impressive: 3.02 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a 6.04 K/9 ratio. It should be an interesting duel between two up and coming New York stars.

There is not nearly enough of a sample size for any Mets hitters to post a chart. Jason Bay has the most at-bats against Hughes and is 1-for-6 with four strikeouts. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira has a .308 average off Big Pelf in 13 at bats.

The best matchup of the series will come in the finale Sunday night, as CC Sabathia goes up against Johan Santana. The last time Santana pitched on Sunday night was a total nightmare, so hopefully there won’t be a repeat performance. Johan has only struggled with two Yankees in his career: Derek Jeter (.423, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 26 AB) and Robinson Cano (.412, 1 RBI, 17 AB).

Heres a look at how the Mets have fared against Carsten Charles:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Gary Matthews Jr.

26

.192

.300

.231

.531

Luis Castillo

19

.211

.211

.263

.474

Rod Barajas

19

.421

.450

1.000

1.450

Jason Bay

9

.111

.111

.111

.222

Henry Blanco

7

.286

.444

.286

.730

Jeff Francoeur

7

.286

.286

.286

.571

Fernando Tatis

4

.250

.500

.250

.750

Alex Cora

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

David Wright

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Unlike the last homestand, the Mets will be playing in some much better conditions. Tonight calls for 75 degrees and clear skies, with 11mph winds from ESE and Saturday will be the 71 with 9mph winds from the same direction. Sunday could be a little bit of a damper, however, as the forecast calls for a chance of showers and temperatures in the low-mid 60s with 10mph winds from ENE. According to weather.com the most favorable conditions for the Mets are day games (which there will be none of this series) with temperatures between 46 and 60 (also not happening) and winds out to left field (nope). Excellent!


Mets at Nationals (5/19-5/20): series at a glance

When I talked about the importance of the rest of this road trip for the Mets on Monday, I didn’t expect to scare Mr. Wilpon so much that he and the rest of the front office felt the need to fly down to Atlanta to “talk” about things. Regardless, it seems as though management’s sudden sense of urgency didn’t seem to rub off on the team. Though they split the two game series in Atlanta, neither game featured an energized ball club that was determined to turn things around.
So now it’s onto the nation’s capital, where the Mets will look to take a winning streak into this weekend’s Subway Series. This short two game series will feature possibly the two least exciting pitching matchups you will ever see, with RA Dickey facing the ageless Livan Hernandez and John Maine going against Luis Atilano.
The former Met, Hernandez, has seemingly dipped into the Fountain of Youth early in the season, posting a 4-2 record and a 1.46 ERA. You might remember, He began his season with 7 shutout innings en route to a 5-0 victory over Johan Santana on April 11. But look a little closer and you’ll see he will probably show himself as Fool’s Gold sometime soon. His FIP is 4.90, over three full points greater than his ERA, and he has a LOB% of 98.6%. That last stat should come as no surprise to Mets fans, who know Livan is prone to give up many hits.
As for RA (I’m sorry, but I feel awkward having to type “Dickey”), he makes his Mets debut after a 4-2 record with a 2.42 ERA in AAA-Buffalo. The highlight of his season, and maybe his professional career, came on April 29 of this year against the Durham Bulls, when RA gave up a lead-off hit then went on to retire the next 27 batters in a row. Obviously, Crash Davis was not in the lineup.
While the Nationals will try to figure out how to handle RA’s knuckleball, here is how the Mets have fared against Livan (Note: David Wright will most likely get the night off tonight which, despite his numbers against Hernandez, is much needed):

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

58

.190

.217

.190

.406

Jose Reyes

47

.277

.306

.447

.753

Alex Cora

45

.244

.306

.289

.595

David Wright

36

.333

.400

.750

1.150

Henry Blanco

21

.381

.435

.524

.959

Fernando Tatis

20

.450

.500

.950

1.450

Jeff Francoeur

15

.400

.500

.867

1.367

Gary Matthews Jr.

13

.077

.077

.154

.231

Jason Bay

12

.250

.250

.333

.583

Rod Barajas

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Tomorrow, the series wil conclude with a re-match from May 10 at Citi Field, when Luis Atilano bested John Maine in a 3-2 Nats victory. Atilano did not allow a run in 5.1 innings, while Maine allowed 2 runs in 6 innings. This will only be the rookie’s second appearance against the Mets, so posting stats would be a waste of everybody’s time.  As for Maine, he has handled the big bats of the Nationals pretty well. Ryan Zimmerman has a measley .189 average against him in 37 at-bats, though he does have two home runs. Adam Dunn has also struggled in 12 at-bats off Maine with a .167 average, and Josh Willingham is only hitting .154 in 13 at-bats. Each also have a home run off him, however.
Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Conditions will be mild tonight, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s and 6mph winds from the west. Tomorrow will be much of the same,  with a daytime high of 79 degrees and winds blowing at 7mph from the north. The Mets have yet to win a game this season when it’s been greater than 70 degrees. The Nationals have won six.


Mets at Braves (5/17-5/18): series at a glance

Well if that wasn’t the weekend from hell, I don’t know what is. Thanks to the four game sweep of the Marlins, these next two short series could be pivitol for the fate of Jerry Manuel and co. With the Yankees visiting Citi Field this weekend, followed by the Phillies, if the Mets do not gather themselves in Atlanta and Washington, the 2010 season may have crashed and burned before we even get to Memorial Day.
Luckily the Mets get a break, as they will not have to face some of the great pitching the Braves have to offer. Tonight, Mike Pelfrey takes the mound against Derek Lowe. Big Pelf will have to be careful with Brian McCann, who has a .464 average against him with a home run and seven RBI. As for Lowe, Luis Castillo and David Wright have a nice stat line, but other than that the righty sinkerballer has kept Mets hitters in check.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

23

.217

.280

.391

.671

Luis Castillo

22

.364

.417

.364

.780

Gary Matthews Jr.

17

.176

.333

.176

.510

David Wright

16

.438

.438

.563

1.000

Jason Bay

13

.000

.133

.000

.133

Fernando Tatis

9

.222

.222

.222

.444

Angel Pagan

9

.111

.111

.111

.222

Alex Cora

7

.143

.143

.286

.429

Henry Blanco

6

.333

.333

.667

1.000

Rod Barajas

6

.500

.500

.500

1.000

Jose Reyes

4

.250

.500

.250

.750

Tomorrow, the Mets will catch a huge break as Kris Medlen will come out of the bullpen to make a spot start for the Braves, with Jair Jurrjens on the DL. Meanwhile, the Amazins will throw out Johan Santana. On paper, this is a gimmie game for the Mets, but as we all know, there really is no such thing with this team. The Braves have had some success off Johan. Troy Glaus has a .333 average in 24 ABs with a home run, and Chipper Jones has hit .294 off the Mets ace. Brian McCann also has two home runs off Santana.
The numbers for Met hitters against Medlen are rather useless to look at, but here they are nonetheless:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

David Wright

2

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jeff Francoeur

2

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Fernando Tatis

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jose Reyes

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jason Bay

1

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Angel Pagan

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): The weather for the series should be a non-factor, with temparatures expected to be in the upper 70s both nights. On Tuesday, there will be 13mph winds WNW, but that should have little impact, if any. This is all good news for the Mets, as they have won eight games in clear skies and have won 10 games with winds of less than 15mph.


Nationals vs. Mets (5/10-5/12): series at a glance

After taking two of three from the Giants, the Mets will conclude their homestand with a three game series against the team they’re currently tied with for second place in the NL East, the Washington Nationals. Yes, you read that right, the Nationals are tied for second place. Are they for real? Perhaps we will find out over the next few days.
Tonight’s opening matchup features John Maine vs. Nationals rookie Luis Atilano. Atilano is 2-0 in three games this season with a 4.67 ERA and a 4.88 WHIP. As for Maine, the Mets hope he can continue his improvements from the last two starts, in which he struck out 15 batters in 12 innings. However, hitters have a .342 BABIP against Maine so far this season. The good news is, the Nats have not had much success off Maine, with Wil Nieves being the only player with a batting average over .300 against him in only five at-bats.
On Tuesday, Jon Niese will look to get back on track when he goes up against fellow lefty Scott Olsen. Olsen, who is coming off a start in which he threw 7.1 no-hit innings against the Braves last Thursday, is no stranger to the Mets. He has not had much success either, having a career 1-6 record with a 4.61 ERA against the Amazin’s. As you will see, Jose Reyes has especially torched Olsen, and David Wright has three home runs off him as well. Also, don’t be surprised to see Fernando Tatis in the starting lineup.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jose Reyes

39

.385

.415

.641

1.056

David Wright

35

.286

.342

.686

1.028

Jeff Francoeur

29

.241

.267

.621

.887

Luis Castillo

13

.385

.467

.615

1.082

Fernando Tatis

11

.364

.429

.636

1.065

Jason Bay

11

.091

.333

.091

.424

Henry Blanco

5

.400

.400

1.000

1.400

Rod Barajas

2

.000

.000

.000

.000

The series concludes Wednesday afternoon, with Mike Pelfrey taking on Craig Stammen. Big Pelf rebounded nicely from his nightmare in Philadelphia, pitching into the 8th inning against the Giants on Friday. One guy he will have to watch out for is Josh Willingham, who has hit .400 with a 1.355 OPS and two home runs off Pelfrey. As for Stammen, the Mets numbers look like this:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

David Wright

8

.375

.444

.500

.944

Angel Pagan

6

.500

.571

.833

1.405

Fernando Tatis

5

.400

.400

.600

1.000

Luis Castillo

3

.000

.250

.000

.250

Jason Bay

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jeff Francoeur

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Frank Catalanotto

2

.000

.000

.000

.000

Alex Cora

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Expect a chilly series, with tonight being  sunny and 60 degrees with winds blowing NW at 17mph, mostly cloudy with a high of 60 degrees and 10mph winds WNW on Tuesday, and a 50% chance of showers on Wednesday with winds blowing E at 12mph. This is good news for the Mets, as they have won 12 of their 17 games in games under 70 degrees.


Backstops Bring Belief

0225S5_CatchersDespite the Mets loss on Sunday, the late game heroics are becoming a bit of a habit. Not that that’s a bad thing. The Mets came back against the Giants on Sunday only to have the bullpen falter. But they’ve shown an ability to fight back that’s been absent for quite some time. It energizes the team, provides confidence and a belief that they are never out of it until the final out is made. A couple of standouts from this weekend series were Met catchers Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco who showed that they have not just doing it behind the plate, but they are doing it with their bats. Friday night, Barajas slugged a walk-off home run for his 9th on the year and Blanco, not to be outdone, decided that he too was capable of some dramatic flair as he added a walk-off on Saturday.

The Met catchers this season have combined for 10 home runs, thanks primarily to Barajas, and they currently lead all teams in that department for catchers. Not too shabby when you consider that Met catchers for the entire 2009 season were only able to push 13 home runs over the wall. It would be safe to say that the moves that brought Barajas and Blanco to the Mets are a definite improvement over the hodge-podge group of Josh Thole, Brian Schneider, Omir Santos and Ramon Castro that provided the catching duties last season. It could even be argued that to date, Barajas has been the Mets best off- season signing with the clutch home runs he has hit.

However, it would be surprising and very unlikely to see Barajas maintain anything close to the rate he is hitting home runs. Historically his home run rate is 3.6% and typically averages a home run every 25.8 AB’s. This season, Barajas’ home run rate has jumped up to 10.3% and is hitting one every 9.1 AB’s. All of this home run hitting has put Barajas’ ISO (isolated power) at a ridiculously high .354. To say that that is going to be pretty tough to sustain would be an understatement. Give Barajas credit though because he has been able to do this despite carrying around a terrible OBP of .253.

Defensively, there is little doubt that Blanco is the one with the upper hand as he is 5-for 5 in throwing out base runners. Barajas on the flip side has let all 6 attempts steal against him which is a concern going forward as base runners may be testing him more and more in the future until he proves he can throw them out.

So what do we really have in Barajas? Sometimes Superman. Sometimes Super-Nothing. At the risk of sounding corny (and what’s wrong with corny?), I can’t help but think that all this clutch hitting and heroics by Barajas is reminiscent of the Great and Powerful Wizard of Oz. But like the Wizard, once you got past the exterior and you looked underneath, there wasn’t really a whole lot there. Just an ordinary man which reminds us that Barajas is just an ordinary player. After all, his current WAR (wins above replacement player) of 0.5 grounds us all back to reality.

But despite the fraud the Wizard turned out to be, he had no magical powers, he did provide Dorothy and the gang with one very important gift: hope. Which is what Barajas has given the Mets and their fans of late. He has given them a reason to believe that they can fight, they can come from behind and they can win. This has been missing for a while now and the urgency and the desire seems to have been reignited in a team that in past seasons seemed uninterested and bored. So a tip of the cap to Rod Barajas (and Henry Blanco) this week for providing the Mets something better than home runs: a belief in themselves that they can win. And if nothing else, at least making Mets’ baseball fun again.


Giants vs. Mets (5/7-5/9): series at a glance

metsVsfWell that was a fun road trip, wasn’t it? Nevertheless, after an off-day in which Jerry Manuel had Fernando Nieve and Pedro Feliciano throw bullpen sessions just to stay fresh (kidding, though I wouldn’t put it past him), the Mets return to New York for a six game home stand. It all starts this weekend against the NL West leading San Francisco Giants.
The pitching matchups are as follows: Jonathan Sanchez vs. Mike Pelfrey on Friday, Todd Wellemeyer vs. Johan Santana on Saturday, and Tim Lincecum vs. Oliver Perez on Sunday.
Hopefully, Pelfrey and Santana can rebound from their nightmare outings in Philadelphia last weekend. Being back at Citi Field should be comforting for Big Pelf, as he is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA at home this season. Here are the Mets stats vs. Sanchez. Look for David Wright to continue his recent hot streak.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

10

.200

.273

.005

.773

Fernando Tatis

10

.100

.250

.100

.350

Jeff Francoeur

8

.250

.250

.250

.500

David Wright

7

.429

.556

.429

.984

Jose Reyes

6

.167

.286

.333

.619

Angel Pagan

4

.250

.250

.500

.750

Alex Cora

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Jason Bay

3

.333

.500

.333

.833

Henry Blanco

2

1.000

1.000

4.000

5.000

Gary Matthews Jr.

2

.000

.000

.000

.000

The Giants have had limited at-bats against Pelfrey, with Aaron Rowand leading the way at 9.
As for Santana, the good news is he is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA at home this season. The bad news, however, is that many of the Giants hitters have had success off him in the past. Bengie Molina has a career .438 batting average with a 1.189 OPS vs. Johan. Aubrey Huff has also feasted off of him back in their AL days, with a .714 slugging percentage, and Aaron Rowand has a .295 lifetime average. Pablo Sandoval sports a .714 average and 2.179 OPS against Santana, although in only 7 at-bats. Luckily for the Mets, Todd Wellemeyer has an ERA of 5.55 this season, and a 6.24 FIP. As you can see, D-Dubbs should be looking forward to this match-up as well.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jason Bay

16

.188

.222

.563

.785

Jose Reyes

12

.333

.333

.333

.667

David Wright

11

.727

.813

.909

1.722

Luis Castillo

9

.556

.600

.889

1.489

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.500

1.000

1.500

Frank Catalanotto

4

.750

.750

1.250

2.000

Alex Cora

4

.250

.400

.250

.650

Gary Matthews Jr.

4

.500

.500

.750

1.250

Fernando Tatis

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Henry Blanco

1

.000

.000

.000

.000

If one of the Mets top two starters fail to deliver this weekend it might be disastrous, as perhaps the best pitcher in baseball will take the mound against them in the series finale. Coming off a game in which he struck out 13 Marlins in 7 innings, Tim Lincecum enters pitcher-friendly Citi Field with a 1.92 FIP. That is not a typo. He also carries an 11.91 K/9 ratio and a 50% ground ball rate. If that fails to make you wary, then check out these stats vs. The Freak:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

13

.154

.214

.385

.599

David Wright

8

.250

.333

.250

.583

Jose Reyes

6

.333

.333

.333

.667

Luis Castillo

4

.250

.250

.250

.500

Henry Blanco

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Fernando Tatis

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Alex Cora

3

.333

.500

.333

.833

Gary Matthews Jr.

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Jason Bay

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Rod Barajas

2

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): The weekend forecast in Flushing calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s and winds blowing W at 10mph Friday evening, mid 70s with a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms and winds blowing WSW at 20mph Saturday, and a grey, chilly Sunday with temperatures in the low 60s and 21mph winds blowing NW. The Mets have only won three of their 15 games in winds greater than 15mph, however, the Giants have also only won three games in the same conditions. Continue reading


Opening Day Lineup and Team

It looks like we have the opening day lineup and the final construction of the 25-man roster. From Jon Heyman, the lineup:

1. SS Alex Cora
2. 2B Luis Castillo
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Mike Jacobs
5. LF Jason Bay
6. CF Gary Matthews, JR.
7. RF Jeff Francoeur
8. C Rod Barajas
9. SP Johan Santana

That’s pretty upsetting. Not only is Mike Jacobs making the team, he’s batting in the cleanup spot ahead of Jason Bay. Does that make sense to anyone? I’m sure this is some stupid R/L/R handed thing, but you can set this lineup differently so that Jason Bay gets more plate appearances than Mike Jacobs. It’s possible. If this is the lineup against lefties (Jacobs has a .643 OPS vs lefties), Mets management needs to be fired. The day after.

Let’s tackle the idiocy of Gary Matthews Jr over Angel Pagan some other time. It’s just too depressing.

The bench should be Fernando Tatis, Angel Pagan, Ruben Tejada, Henry Blanco and maybe Chris Carter until Daniel Murphy comes back. I’m happy Tejada made the team and I hope they keep him up when people return from injury. I’d rather have him than Alex Cora, whose defense is slipping and whose offense never really existed.

The pitching looks to lineup like this:

1. Johan Santana
2. Jonathon Niese
3. John Maine
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Oliver Perez

I love the fact that Jon Niese is pitching the second game, if only if it’s a symbolic gesture. Niese deserves a little atta-boy and a positive push in the right direction. Let’s hope he responds better than Mike Pelfrey did a similar moment last year.

The bullpen is Francisco Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Hisanori Takahashi, Ryota Igarashi, and Jenrry Mejia. I personally think Takahashi will take a spot in the rotation (Oliver Perez, I’m looking in your direction), but this bullpen looks pretty good, and with the upside Mejia provides, could be dominant if their good years line up this season. As long as the long-term plan is still to make Mejia a starter, I think Mets fans should be happy with this bullpen.

All in all, the team looks like it will have a decent bullpen, a shaky back end of a rotation, and a poor offense. They really need to get lucky with someone at first base, or Ike Davis will be needed a little earlier than they’d hope. Maybe we’ll just start banging the Ike Davis drum so that he replaces Jacobs. Almost anyone would be better than Jacobs.


Mets Trying to Figure Out What's the Catch

<The article below discusses some of the considerations that Rod Barajas would bring to the Mets.  Shortly after the writing and posting of this article, the Mets signed Barajas to a major league deal–go figure.  Here’s wishing Barajas continued solid defense and a better OBP than .258>

Can you feel it in the air? Yes, it’s that time of the year and the start of the season is just a little over a month away. Since pitchers and catchers reported earlier this week, I thought it might be a good time to evaluate all of the catching options the Mets have this year. Let’s see, there’ rookie Josh Thole. And there’s…hmmm… Omir Santos of course. And…well…um…oh, yes…oh no, not him, he got traded to the White Sox. Oh yeah there’s Henry Blanco. And then, well…I guess there’s Chris Coste. And supposedly the Mets might be close to signing Rod Barajas to a major league contract which would mean that the Blue Jays would receive a compensation pick although at the time of this post that has not happened yet. And, well, that’s it…that’s everyone.

It would be a monumental understatement to say that none of these catchers will be mistaken for Mike Piazza. The combined batting average of all 5 of these players (we’ll throw Barajas in there just for kicks) in 2009 was .240 with a total of 34 home runs. Barajas in fact supplied 56% of that power. Thole had the highest batting average at .321 but with only 53 Major League AB’s and none in AAA, it would be difficult to hand over the full-time catching position to someone so green although he seems to have potential to handle the bat well.

No matter how you slice it, the Mets don’t seem destined to fill the catching spot with any kind of offensive threat. So going into the situation with those realistic expectations, the Mets would do well then to choose the best defensive catcher of the bunch. After all, the catching position is primarily a defensive position and most teams are willing to forgo the bat in favor of a backstop that handle the staff, throw out base runners, provide strong defense and call a solid game.

With a shout out to Sabermetrician Chuck Rosciam, he developed a formula for rating catchers based upon their overall defensive abilities. He took into account the catcher’s stamina to consistently catch games, their ability to throw out runners, their fielding percentage, the ability to be a handle bunts, head’s up game play (double plays and passed balls) and finally the ability to call an effective game. He then took all six of these elements and combined them into one overall rating by which to measure the catcher’s overall defensive effectiveness. While I won’t get into the nitty gritty of his calculations (you can read more about it here), much of the formula is based upon looking at how the individual catcher in question measures against the other catchers on his team and then looking at how he compares against the catchers in the league as a whole.

So before we delve into looking at how the Mets catchers fair against this system, let’s take a test run and look at a proven defensive catcher that is one of the best in baseball: Yadier Molina. We’ll take a look at each of the 6 elements, giving some description on the context and then use Molina as the bar by which to measure the other Met catchers by. Yes, it’s a high bar but we’re throwing offense out the window, right?

  • Stamina– Molina caught 82% of the innings the Cardinals played last season; a very high percentage showing great endurance. If we take that percentage and divide that into the N.L. innings average (1444), Molina scores a rating for stamina of 5.68.
  • Good Glove– This is pretty straightforward. We’ll simply take Moilna’s fielding percentage**of .995 and divide that into the league average for catchers of .993. A rating of 1.00 will indicate that the catcher is right on par with the league. Anything over that is above average. Molina scores a 1.02 in this category. **Chuck Rosciam formula actually takes the catcher’s independent fielding percentage (IPO), but for simplification, I used the regular fielding percentage. My apologies to Chuck.
  • Good Arm– As you can guess this measures the catcher’s ability to throw out those nasty base-stealing thieves. Molina was successful throwing out these culprits almost 41% of the time compared to the league average of 29%. This gives him a rating in this department of 1.40 well above a rating of 1.00 which would be right at the average.
  • Ball Handling– To be clear, this measures the catcher’s ability to record an out on bunt plays, not anything more risqué. As you would imagine, Molina was right there with the best of them at 86% of the time getting the out on a bunt against the league average of 87%. Slightly lower than the average, but still good which gives him a rating of .99.
  • Heads up plays– This measures the catcher’s ability to make heads up plays such as being quick to react and reducing the amount of passed balls or making double plays. The number of passed balls and double plays by the catcher are weighted against the league. Molina scored an 8.27 in effective game play.
  • Game Calling– This measures the catcher’s ERA against the other catcher’s on his team. When Molina was catching, pitchers produced an excellent 3.48 ERA. When he wasn’t behind the plate, the Cardinal pitchers’ ERA evaluated by almost a full run to 4.47 when any other catcher was calling the pitches. If we divide the other catchers’ ERA into Molina’s, he scores a 1.28 where once again 1.00 would be the average.

The finally step to get a raw score for Molina is to multiple the results together for each of the steps (i.e. stamina score * good glove score * good arm score etc.). Molina’s net result would be 85.86. An outstanding score!

Which brings us to the Mets. You probably have a queasy feeling in your stomach right about now and might feel the need to grab a couple of antacids. I’ll wait while you get some………………………………………………………………….. still waiting ……………………………..OK?

Let’s look at how the prospective Mets catchers did when using this same rating system. Once again will throw Barajas into this mix. The table below doesn’t break down each catcher’s individual percentage in the category but rather just gives the rating of each category and finally the raw score.

Catcher

Stamina

Good Glove

Good Arm

Ball Handling

Heads Up

Game Calling

Score

Santos

3.32

1.01

1.03

1.01

7.35

1.00

25.64

Blanco

2.42

1.07

1.38

0.57

11.02

0.93

20.88

Thole

0.62

0.99

1.15

-

2.31

1.09

1.78

Coste

0.83

1.07

0.64

0.57

1.84

0.87

0.52

Barajas

4.65

0.99

1.30

0.94

8.35

1.13

53.08

Stamina is obviously heavily influenced by playing time and Barajas is the only catcher on the list above that had consistent playing time in 2009. The rest of the catchers were essentially no more than back-ups. The majority of the catchers had better than average throwing arms with the exception of Coste who also calls a poor game calling along with Blanco. While Thole appears to be a promising prospect, he really has too little experience to really get a true measure on his defensive skills.

With whom the Mets currently have on their roster it would seem that Santos and Blanco would be the best choices from a defensive standpoint but both were unimpressive offensively. Santos batted a mediocre .260 with a .298 wOBA, while Blanco’s average was less at .235, with a slightly better wOBA at .310. Neither should be expected to offer much offensive punch, and defensively it’s pretty much a coin flip as both don’t come anywhere close to a catcher the caliber of Molina. Interestingly, Barajas would seem to be the better choice from a defensive standpoint as he rated a very respectable 53.08 with an above average arm and solid game calling skills which one would think would be of prime importance considering the Mets pitching woes last season. With the Rangers also listed as one of Barajas’ potential destinations, the Mets should push a little harder to ensure they are able to secure his services. It’s true they will be getting nothing more than a career .240 hitter who has some decent power, but for $1M-$1.5M for the year, he may the right choice to split time with Santos and provide the experience and defense the Mets need. After all beggars can’t choosers and in this scenario between the Mets and Barajas, it’s difficult to know who is the beggar and who is the chooser.


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