Tag Archives: JJ Putz

Paying Putz not to Play

As I alluded to at the end of my post about Octavio Dotel, the Mets have a decision looming about JJ Putz and his $8.9 million option.

At one time, those numbers did not seem so ridiculous for a set-up man of his caliber. In 2006 and 2007 combined, Putz earned his team over $22 million as their closer. He racked up 76 saves against only nine blown saves in those two years. He pitched over 70 innings both years and had an era of 1.86. His WHIP was well under one. He looked like a dominant lefty closer.

Then came 2008 and 2009, when he racked up only 75 innings combined, had an ERA over four, a WHIP over 1.5, and only 15 saves against 10 blown saves. He was hurt both years, and at times blamed the coaching staffs on both of his teams.

The decline was precipitous and obvious, and if you look at his strikeout rates, it really seems that his peak has come and gone. When he first came up, Putz struck out around seven batters a game, which was right in line with his minor league totals. Then in 2007, those totals jumped to double digits. He paired this jump with a corresponding halving of his walk rate, and suddenly he was a relief ace.

Even in 2008, before his injury that year, he was still striking out over 10 batters a game. But his walk rate returned to its customary spot in the threes, and something was not right. He went down with rib and shoulder injuries and accrued only 45+ innings that year.

This year, though, Putz came out firing mothballs. His strikeout rate plummeted to under six a game and his walk rate rose to over five. He lost a mile and half of MPH off of his fastball, and that pitch, which had once been among the best in the game, was suddenly sub-par. Batters stopped reaching, they started centering the ball, and Putz got into trouble because he couldn’t rely on the fastball any more. Sure, a big portion of it has been his injuries, but those injuries are starting  to pile up.

And now Putz has been worth a mere $3 million over the past two years of his contract.

It stands to reason that the team would rather pay him $1 million to not play for them, call it a writeoff, and go hunting for a more stable reliever in the offseason. Heck, it could even be Putz himself, but not at nine million dollars. No way.


Octavio Dotel on the Mets?

Strange things happen on teams that are out of it. Veterans develop sore backs just in time for the team to try a rookie at their position. Optional surgeries suddenly become scheduled surgeries. And then there’s the age-old tradition of the veteran talking about playing somewhere else next year.

Maybe they are just taking advantage of the situation to look out for themselves. They’re still getting tape recorders stuck in their face after games, but the games don’t matter and next year is on everyone’s mind. So it’s natural that they may just speculate about where they might be next year.

So we have Octavio Dotel telling the Chicago Sun-Times that he approached the White Sox about an extension and was told he wasn’t in their plans. Amazingly, Dotel continued talking and created a wish list that started with the New York Mets and ended with the New York Yankees.

Would it be a good idea to bring Dotel back to the team that gave him his first shot in the majors? The answer, as always, is that it depends on price.

Dotel had a normal year, with his customary high strikeout rate (10.83 K/9) paired with a high walk rate (5.20 BB/9). Perhaps the best news, with Dotel’s injury history, is that he’s now pitched two straight years with over 60 innings and little injury concern. He’s been a little too hittable as he’s gotten older (1.44 WHIP this year and 54 hits in 62 innings), but he had an FIP under four in the tougher league and is still missing bats at 36 years old.

His fastball is still up around 93 MPH, paired mostly with an 81 MPH slider. The fastball used to be his bread and butter, and was an excellent pitch as recently as 2008. His slider, however, gained some movement and is the better pitch this year. This development could be seen either way: either he now has two strong pitches, or it’s worrisome that his main pitch is losing effectiveness.

Either way, if you add it all up and the package was worth $3.6 million this year and $2.8 million last year. It stands to reason that if he comes to the Mets for about $3 million a year (and not too many years), then he’s worth it.

The question then becomes, what to do with JJ Putz and his $1 million option?

We’ll tackle that topic shortly.


The Mets are Schizophrenic

A running theme in the comments threads and the posts here at GodBlessBuckner seems to be that the Mets can’t decide what kind of a team they are. Are they buyers or sellers, as the pre-trade deadline saying goes. Maybe it’s not their fault, given the circumstances. But one thing seems for sure: indecision is the mark of poor teams in baseball.

But first, the Mets. Of course they spend money like a championship contender, but things didn’t work out for them. Injuries took their toll. The three-headed super-star monster of Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes went down and took the team’s offense with it. The rotation, made shaky by poor decisions (Oliver Perez over Derek Lowe), was further worsened by injury to the solid John Maine. The bullpen, which could have been dominant, lost JJ Putz out of the eighth inning and has only been okay since.

On the face of things, the Mets should pack it in for this year. At seven games under even baseball, 12 games out of first in the division with two teams ahead of them, and 9.5 games out of the wild card with six teams between them and the leader, the Mets should realize that this is not the year. The focus should immediately become making next year’s team better.

Perhaps that is what happened when Omar Minaya sat on his hands through the deadline this year. Perhaps he was saving all his bullets for next year. Perhaps.

But there can be no doubt what the Florida Marlins would have done had they found themselves in the spot that the Mets are in now. They would have immediately begun fielding offers for Dan Uggla, a free agent at the end of the year. Players like Jorge Cantu and Jeremy Hermida, who may both become more expensive than they are worth at the end of the year, would have gone on the block too. Any veterans in key roles that may be gone would find a rookie starting for them as the team tried to figure out what they had going into 2010. Hello, Gaby Sanchez.

Does this decisive buyer/seller system work? Well, you can’t argue with the results in the case of the Marlins. They may have some attendance issues, but in terms of winning and losing the Marlins have won more world series titles in their short existence than the Chicago Cubs have won in the past century. Or, for that matter, as many as the Mets have won, in a much shorter period of time.

The attendance issue is a big one for a big-market team like the Mets. Could they have decisively become sellors at the deadline in New York? The prescription seems to be that they should have pushed Gary Sheffield and Luis Castillo agressively, while giving Daniel Murphy and a healthy Fernando Martinez all the at-bats they could handle. Livan Hernandez would have been released by now, and possibly even Pedro Feliciano would have been on the block.

Maybe this sort of prescription only works in smaller markets. The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and Chicago Cubs have all suffered similar fates as the Mets, and are all possibly in markets too large to admit to a focus on the future. The Braves did manage to sell Mark Teixeira in a down year, and have been a little bit more decisive than the Mets seem to be. They’ve also had more recent success. The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, have the same pressures as the Mets: an old veteran team that plays just good enough to avoid an overhaul.

Could the Mets have survived the blitzstorm that would have come from being a seller in this media market? It’s been a long time since one of the New York teams so obviously acted like a Have Not, or took such an obvious focus on Next Year. Would it lose fans in droves? Would the Wilpons be vilified?

Probably. But the team would have been better for it. And fans like winning most of all.


Carlos Delgado out for Season?

The Metropolitans showed some spunk tonight and battled back from an early deficit. The team scored five runs. Billy Wagner pitched a 1-2-3 inning against the 3-4-5 hitters in AA today and looks like he might be back (and useful) this year. JJ Putz threw a bullpen and felt no pain. Gary Sheffield got into the game and went one for four and looked pretty good for a forty-year-old.

But, as we’ve said before, there’s always bad news lurking behind the good at Citi Field. First, the small stuff. Billy Wagner and JJ Putz are no starters, and Nelson Figueroa was bombed like the AAAA fill-in pitcher that he is. We love his spunk and all, but he was throwing BP out there today. Sheffield is burning worms, hitting balls on the ground at his second-worst rate in his career.

This is all small potatoes in the end, especially if the news on Carlos Beltran remains as pessimistic as it has. I’m no doctor, but I’m beginning to think we won’t see Delgado in uniform this year.

Let me see if this non-doctor can analyze the situation. He had a growing bone bruise on his knee. Bone bruises that grow turn into stress fractures turn into regular fractures if they growth isn’t halted. Yes, not all bruises are created equal.

So Beltran was told to get off the bruise to make sure it would heal. So he did, for a whole month. Then, a month later, remnants of the bruise remained. A follow up MRI was scheduled. And then the Mets training staff went dark. No reports of a clean and healthy knee.

Then last week came a flurry of reports, mostly from Beltran’s mouth. He was on schedule to play in two-and-a-half weeks. He wasn’t going to be 100%, but he was going to play at 85% in order to help the team. Jerry Manuel said it was about ‘how much pain he could stand’ once he got the knee warmed up. He started taking batting practice. He ran the bases.

And then today, he took outfield flies. After the game, he told reporters from mlb.com that he wouldn’t be able to play at full throttle with the kind of discomfort he was experiencing.

I hear a bunch of hopeful words sandwhiched around a knee problem that will probably need surgery. The dreaded words ‘microfracture’ have been bandied about. I’m no doctor, but this is starting to sound pretty bad. We hope for the best for the Mets center fielder.


Omar Minaya gets Mets' Boss Wilpon's Vote of Confidence

Today, SI.com reported, and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed via twitter, that Jeff Wilpon gave Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel votes of confidence two weeks ago. You see, with all the injuries, this disasterpiece can’t be blamed on the two guys at the helm. It’s just the way the hamstring tears, you see.

I call shenanigans.

At least when talking about Omar Minaya, there shouldn’t be a vote of confidence applied. And you may be surprised, because I’m not talking about the offense. When you lose men both young (Jose Reyes), middle-aged (Carlos Beltran), and old (Carlos Delgado), you’ve got some bad mojo going. You’re not going to trade Reyes just because he’s had some hamstring injuries in the past. In Beltran’s case, there was little precedent to think that he was breaking down. He’s only 32, and he’s played an average of 149 games since coming to the big city, and though he’s had some tweaks here or there, there’s hardly been a pattern that Minaya should have worried about. Carlos Delgado – well, Delgado was supposed to be backed up by promising young Daniel Murphy, wasn’t he?

No, a team with Alex Cora and Daniel Murphy as the primary reserves on offense seems like it could actually well-built, if a little weak against lefties. From Reyes down to Delgado, the lineup was supposed to be good, and in any other year, might still be. But is that the case with the pitching staff? Decidedly not.

Omar Minaya built a bad starting rotation. There, I said it. It was bad, and it was all based on his obsession with mediocre (but ‘tested,’ oh, there tested!) veterans. The staff had all the makings of a Minaya staff, which is to say that it was top-heavy, veteran-heavy, and had virtually no depth.

Some of the depth he sacrificed in order to get a reigning Cy Young winner in Johan Santana, but Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra probably wouldn’t be helping right now anyway. That seal of a trade was the last good thing he did for this staff.

He inexplicably followed up a good signing (Francisco Rodriguez) with a poor trade in getting JJ Putz. Putz, in 2008, showed a disturbing lack of control (BB/9 over 5, career BB/9 of 3.14) that, mixed with his injury issues that limited him to 47 games with mediocre results, did not make him a good candidate to be the setup man in New York. Hindsight is 20-20 so we’ll give him a pass for JJ Putz. And the fact that he decided to build the rest of the bullpen with young guys and cheap veterans – that was good thinking. Relief pitchers are notoriously fickle, and their production varies too much from year to year to pass out $5 million per year contracts to left-handed specialists. At least Minaya seems to understand that much.

However, let’s get back to that rotation. That rotation is a mess. Why does the team have so much confidence in Mike Pelfrey? I hate to keep harping on it, but I’ve written about how he has one pitch, and uses it too often. If he doesn’t develop a secondary or tertiary pitch, then he’s bullpen material. He’s certainly not a number 2. And yet it was obvious the team was depending on Big Pelf to come through this year. Even in his breakout season last year, he struck out less than five a game. That’s below-average, folks. That’s not a number 2 guy.

John Maine could be a number two, but you can’t depend on him either, not coming off of a year where he tallied 11 starts, had surgery, and showed declining strikeout rates combined with ballooning walk rates. No, Maine was depth: a guy that should have been penciled in as a #4/5 or 6.

The biggest mistake of Minaya’s career was signing Oliver Perez for 3 years and $36 million when one more year would and $24 million more have netted him Derek Lowe. I think it’s obvious that he chose poorly. Yes, Lowe is older. But Lowe has been a better pitcher every year of his career, and when you need a #2, you go get him. When you are the Mets, you don’t settle for a guy that has walked almost five batters per game his whole career, and is called the ‘little girl with the curl’ by the local media (when he’s good, he’s very good, but when he’s bad…).

Think how much better this team would be with even Lowe and his currently unexciting 4.40/1.40 steady hand behind Santana’s. Suddenly, we’re talking about Livan Hernandez as a #5 again, where he belongs. And we’re not talking about Livan as the second-best starter on the Mets currently. That mind-blowing fact is on Omar Minaya’s head.


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