Tag Archives: John Maine

June 22, 2010

SP Trends (Takahashi, Pelfrey, Santana)

By mfgz

The Mets went into this past weekend playing the best ball of their season.  They won their first game behind an strong outing by Hisanori Takahashi but couldn’t get a win in the next two games, though the pitching wasn’t the entire culprit.  Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana seemingly took some minor steps back as some key metrics are beginning to normalize for them.

takahashi k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12
thru 6/18 8.61 3.31 0.66 0.322 76.8 34.9 5.7 3.48 3.26 4.06
career 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12

Hisanori Takahashi pitched 6 strong innings on Friday, allowing only 4 hits.  He struck out 3 and walked 2, while throwing 61 of 103 pitches for strikes.  He yielded 9 groundouts to 6 flyouts as the Yankees again weren’t able to get a good read on him.  Takahashi’s k/9 should continue to drop if he sticks in the rotation.  He’s been able to avoid the home run ball and his 4.12 xFIP is excellent for a spot starter.   Still, he seems to be the most likely candidate to be sent back to the bullpen when, and if, John Maine returns.

pelfrey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.86 3.27 0.48 0.275 80.7 50.4 6.0 2.69 3.61 4.12
thru 6/19 6.13 3.22 0.31 0.280 81.5 50.4 4.0 2.39 3.28 4.02
career 5.28 3.38 0.66 0.309 71.5 50.1 7.6 4.27 4.21 4.57

Mike Pelfrey’s k/9 has been regressing towards his career average the past few games while both his bb/9 and hr/9 are still both better than his career averages.  He’s still pitching well, but you have to wonder when his .275 babip and 80.7% strand rate will revert towards his career average.  He’s generating the same amount of ground balls and his hr/fb% is usually much lower than the league average.  He did manage 7 innings on Saturday, but was hurt by the long ball and 3 walks.  He only struck out 2 and allowed 7 hits.  Look for a rebound performance from Pelfrey as he solidifies himself as this team’s number two.  With the low strikeout totals and lucky babip and lob% marks, be careful not to label Pelfrey an “ace”, a guilty pleasure I occasional dabble in myself.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.69 2.85 0.73 0.274 76.5 37.0 6.0 3.31 3.90 4.71
thru 6/20 5.77 2.93 0.68 0.270 77.1 36.6 5.5 3.13 3.82 4.71
career 8.94 2.51 0.97 0.286 77.3 37.8 9.3 3.13 3.41 3.46

Johan Santana is quickly falling from ace status.  Though one grand slam in one inning was the only real damage done against Santana, he only struck out 3 through 6 innings and had to throw 114 pitches.  He did manage more groundouts than flyouts, and only walked 1, but the sub 6 k/9 is extremely alarming.   He’s a good enough pitcher to make adjustments, and he always gets better as the year goes on, but as his hr/fb% normalizes coupled with the declining strikeout to walk ratio, there will be more  rough games going forward.  Hopefully he can find a way  turn some of those would be strikeouts into batted ball outs.  A 4.71 xFIP tells some of the story of his lucky 2010 campaign to date.

takahashi k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12
thru 6/18 8.61 3.31 0.66 0.322 76.8 34.9 5.7 3.48 3.26 4.06
career 8.20 3.28 0.60 0.311 78.7 37.5 5.3 3.13 3.26 4.12

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June 20, 2010

SP Trends 6/15-6/17 (Santana, Niese, Dickey)

By mfgz

The New York Mets swept the Cleveland Indians on Thursday as they won seven straight heading into their weekend series with the New York Yankees.  The Mets are playing some of the best baseball in the majors and getting contributions from many young players.  Their rotation has been key in this June surge, so let’s take a look at how the starters fared against The Tribe and how their key metrics are trending.

santana k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 5.77 2.93 0.68 0.270 77.1 36.6 5.5 3.13 3.82 4.71
thru 6/15 6.14 2.96 0.64 0.272 78.0 36.1 5.1 2.96 3.65 4.63
career 8.95 2.51 0.97 0.286 77.4 37.8 9.2 3.12 3.40 3.46

Johan Santana recorded his fifth win of the season on Wednesday, though once again he did so by getting outs via balls in play as he only struck out one.  Johan Santana’s k/9 has dropped to below 6 for the first time this season.   He’s starting to give up home runs, which for the first third of the season, seemed to be the metric keeping his era respectable.  He’s still pitching well for a pitcher who isn’t striking anyone out, and his fly ball tendencies haven’t gotten him into too much trouble yet.  His hr/fb% is still 4 points below his career average.  His xFIP sits at an ugly 4.71 and sooner or later his fly balls are going to turn into home runs.  A sub 6 k/9 and an elevated walk rate is not a pretty combo for a fly ball pitcher.  Concern is definitely warranted.

niese k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 6.72 2.94 0.70 0.331 73.9 50.0 8.2 3.64 3.77 4.05
thru 6/16 7.06 2.98 0.63 0.336 73.1 52.2 7.7 3.61 3.60 3.93
career 6.66 3.29 0.69 0.340 71.7 48.6 7.7 4.24 3.83 4.19

Jonathon Niese followed up his complete game performance with another strong outing, going 7 innings and striking out 3.  He induced 8 ground ball outs and 8 fly ball outs and is continuing to impress without huge strikeout totals.  He improved to 4-2 on the season, as trade rumors whirl about Seattle’s interest in him as they look to find a suitor with available cash for Cliff Lee.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets decide to do, since their true ace Santana, is clearly on the decline.  Like Mike Pelfrey, Niese induces 50% ground balls, and in a large ballpark his value is even greater as the fly balls he does give up yield home runs well below the league average.  Niese’s babip has stabilized a bit, after being the high 3s for the first two months of the season, and it still has room to regress towards the league average.

dickey k/9 bb/9 hr/9 babip lob% gb% hr/fb% era fip xfip
current 7.28 2.82 0.47 0.342 80.1 50.8 5.6 2.82 3.13 3.74
thru 6/17 6.68 2.78 0.56 0.329 82.9 49.5 6.3 2.78 3.36 3.90
career 5.65 3.53 1.33 0.320 70.6 44.1 12.3 5.22 5.02 4.69

R.A. Dickey perpetuated the Mets win streak, and his own, as he improved to 5-0 and his young season.   He’s seeing success by limiting balls into play with a 7.28 k/9 which is significantly higher than his 5.65 career mark.  He also has improved his ground ball rate about 4% points this season, as his gb% is an impressive 50.8%.   He has been stranding runners at a clip of 80% which is bound to regress, though his babip of .342 has room to regress too.  The Mets have to keep handing Dickey the ball, no matter what happens when John Maine and Oliver Perez return from their DL stints.

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June 17, 2010

Trimming the "Fat", Helps Bring Mets Success

By Richard Gross

There’s been no June swoon for the Mets this month as they are undoubtedly playing their best baseball of the season. Their record stands at 11-2 this month and they are winning games that they need to be winning as the road gets a little tougher with the Yankees and the Twins looming in the not too distant horizon.

Many have noted a shift in the club’s attitude. They actually look like they are enjoying winning. Imagine that? And as Met fans, it’d be safe to say that we are enjoying it too—for a change. This is a far cry from the lackadaisical and complacent Met teams that have been running out on the field the past couple of seasons, going through the motions, taking their at-bats with as much enthusiasm as watching grass grow.

No doubt, the addition (and subtraction) of different clubhouse personalities have infused the team with an approach that is refreshing to see. Rookies, like Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia and Hisanori Takahashi know nothing of past seasons. They only know the here and now and they are helping players that have been around for multiple seasons turn the page on some ugly, ugly memories.

But more than the infusion of rookie blood, there is much more to the successful June than that. I believe the biggest moves that the Mets have made the past couple of weeks have not been what’s happening on the field but rather some of the dead weight the Mets have lifted from their roster. Don’t they just seem leaner, meaner…less heavy? They certainly have done some necessary trimming of excess “fat” and it’s all for the better.

I believe it’s no coincidence that since the Mets designated Gary Matthews Jr. (and have since released him), put Luis Castillo on the DL and done whatever you want to call what they have done with Oliver Perez, that this team has thrived. And as much I root for a successful return of John Maine, he was doing the team no favors by rolling himself out there every fifth day with only 50% velocity and not enough command to get through 5 innings much less 5 pitches.

The problem with some of the transactions they have made though is that they are not permanent. Matthews’ departure thankfully is a sure thing, but Castillo will eventually come off the DL as well as Perez. Omar Minaya has done is best to move Castillo, but with a year and a half and roughly $9.0 million left on his contact, who wants a singles hitter with bad legs for that price?

And then there’s Ollie. Ollie who is technically on the 15-day DL with knee tendonitis. Conspiracy theorist can debate the legitimacy of the move but the most important part is that he is not with the team. But eventually, the Mets will give him another shot. They need to get some return value on the $36.0 million they have wasted on him. But for now, it’s a good thing that he stays away as his innings pitched were infecting the team like a disease and the Mets seem much “healthier” and better off without him. And don’t we all sleep a little better at night too?

The Mets will continue to maneuver through June with the tougher schedule ahead. They have been playing solid baseball, but who could blame the dedicated Met fan for watching the games with eyes covered, peeking through the slits of their fingers and breathing a heavy sigh of relief after every recorded out? Isn’t it normal to flinch when kicked to the ground so many times? The good news is that management seems to be recognizing some of the issues (players?) that were holding them back and they are finally acting on these issues.

Going forward, Met fans may hold back on their enthusiasm for this team with rightful skepticism. Can we really keep giving all of our heart and soul into rooting for a team that may potentially crush our hopes yet again? Like Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football, can the Mets really tease us once more and move the football as it’s about to be kicked and we go falling to the ground? It takes a lot to be a Met fan. It takes vulnerability, dedication and yes, perhaps a little bit of masochistic pleasure.

But for now let’s take a moment and enjoy the solid baseball we have seen over the past couple of weeks. This Mets team has been a much better team to watch and a much more fun team to root for. And perhaps most importantly…they are a likable team again.

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June 15, 2010

Are Takahashi and Dickey Enough for Met Pitching?

By Richard Gross

rahtThe sun just got a little brighter for the Mets as they won consecutive road games for the first time this season and their first road series. Granted, the wins are coming against the Baltimore Orioles who are owners of the worst record in baseball, but these are the games that the Mets must win if they are to call themselves contenders. The upcoming Cleveland series could be categorized in a similar fashion as must win games. The Indians are not playing the same underwhelming baseball as the Orioles, but they are a team that will struggle to be a .500 ball club and the Mets need to look at the Indian series as one that they should win as well.

With eleven games under their belts in June, the Mets are 9-2. Still, the offense has remained relatively quiet for the most part although it was nice to see them break out on Sunday with 18 hits against Kevin Millwood and company. Still the team is batting just .260 this month and have been offensively erratic. Hopefully the hot hitting on Sunday will carryover on the flight from Baltimore to Cleveland.

However the real story (and has been all season long) is the pitching. For June the Mets have the best ERA in baseball at 2.46. What’s been particularly impressive over the last 11 games and what I consider a very good sign is that they almost have a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio and have only given up 3 home runs. The walks have been the biggest nemesis for the pitching staff as they are second in the major-leagues allowing the most walks (255) behind only the Brewers who best the Mets at this dubious distinction.

Obviously, we Met fans are overjoyed right now with the state of the pitching. But let’s be honest here for a moment. There’s probably not a soul out in Met-Land that foresaw this kind of pitching coming out of spring training.

Leaving Port St. Lucie, Johan Santana had an ERA of 6.75, Jon Niese an ERA of 6.52 and Mike Pelfrey, who has unquestionable been the Mets best pitcher this year left spring training with an ERA of 6.15. Opposing hitters feasted off of Pelfrey in the pre-season smacking 8 home runs through just 26 innings. But that was a different Mike Pelfrey as he has gone through a renaissance and I will make this statement with confidence: he has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the major leagues this year. And you know that home run problem in spring training? Pelfrey has only allowed 3 home runs through 86 innings of work and has a stellar ERA of 2.39 with a 9-1 record.

However, John Maine and Oliver Perez’s springs were a foreshadowing of the disaster to come. Maine left Port St Lucie with an ERA of 7.88 while Perez decided to outdo him with an 8.68 ERA. Maine has since been placed on the DL and as far as Perez goes, I have spent many, many hours wishing and wishing him out into the cornfield. Sadly that has not worked, so I will have to settle for Buffalo

Perhaps the biggest maneuvers that have salvaged the Maine/Perez Titanic were the addition of Hisanori Takahasi to the rotation and the promotion of R.A. Dickey. Both were afterthoughts during spring training. Takahashi was penciled in for the bullpen while Dickey seemed to have a one-way ticket to Buffalo after pitching just a handful of innings in spring training. They have both stepped up and fulfilled significant gaps in the pitching staff and have pitched surprisingly well.

But here is where things get dicey because I’d be lying if I felt that the Dickey/Takahashi combo was the Mets equivalent to the Jeff Neimann/Wade Davis duo that anchor the back-end of the Tampa Bay Rays’ rotation. In truth, I’m holding my breath waiting for them to look more like the Kyle Davies/Gil Meche tandem of the Royals.

Takahasi may own much of his success so far this season to the fact that he is an enigma to the league. Scouting reports have not been fully compiled on him and the real test will be the 2nd go-around in the league to see if he is still able to be as successful. Certainly, hitters will be making adjustments and Takahashi will need to stay a step ahead and make his own adjustments if the Mets are relaying on his continued success.

Opposing hitters are already warming up to Takahashi as he moves through the lineup two or three times. The first time around batters are hitting just .250. The average goes up a pinch the second time around to .268 but by the third time, it jumps significantly to .346. To further bring the point home, the Florida Marlins have seen Takahashi on four separate occasions this season: three times in relief and once as a starter. The third and fourth go-arounds against the Marlins have resulted in a cumulative 7 earned runs through 8.1 innings. This may be a trend the Mets will need to watch.

Dickey, on the other hand, has been around baseball for a while. What he has accomplished so far exceeds many people’s expectations, but how far can the Mets ride this gravy train with a pitcher who has a career ERA of 5.25 and a lifetime WHIP of 1.56? If you follow Dickey’s historical trends, what he has been doing this season is an anomaly in an otherwise tainted career. Dickey has never produced an ERA lower than 4.62 for a season so the concern is that Dickey’s future outings will begin to regress back to his historical trends.

Personally, I love the efforts that both Takahashi and Dickey have been putting out and I hope for their continued success. But the Mets have been playing with house money and there’s a pit in my stomach that tells me that the Mets need to do more where their pitching is concerned. They need some insurance for Dickey and Takahashi if they should falter, and in my humble opinion, not to be a downer, but I expect one of them to stumble. Perhaps Maine will come around and right himself. Perhaps there is a trade option that might provide that needed back-up. Certainly Omar Minaya should be calling clubs about now and seeing what is available. If a deal could be made to acquire some mid-level starting pitcher, the Mets could find themselves in a battle to the finish.

But one thing is for sure: if the Mets choose to look at Oliver Perez as a viable option to help them through the rest of the season, they might as well push the self-destruct button right now and save all Met fans the agony of another season of frustration. Let’s hope they find better and more suitable options in the coming weeks.

What do you think? Are Takahashi and Dickey enough for the back-end of the rotation? Or would you prefer the Mets land another arm as back-up to secure that they stay in contention for the division? Let us know your thoughts.

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June 1, 2010

April-May Team Stats

By mfgz

The Major League Baseball season is almost a third of the way through and prior to tonight’s game vs the Padres the Mets are sitting at .500 with a 26 and 26 record.  They went 14-9 in April, but just 12-17 in May, yet they are only 3.5 games behind the Phillies for first place.  They are 19-9 at home, but only 7-17 on the road.  They are 5-11 in one run games and 2-4 in extra innings.  They have outscored their opponents with 235 runs scored to 219 runs against.

The Mets have slipped a bit in walk percentage and strikeout percentage after being tied for third in the NL through one month of the season, leaving them in 8th with a .50 k/bb%.   They are tied for 12th in all three triple slash categories, hitting an umimpressive .254/.326/.394.  Their BABIP ranks 14th in the NL at .294 but that mark isn’t very far off the league mean.  They’ve fared a little better in terms of ranks in ISO with a .140 mark.  They do rank first with a 6.3 speed rating.  They’ve only hit 41 home runs this season, but have hit 16 triples which is good for third in the NL.  The extra base hits should continue to come, especially as Reyes and Pagan continue to heat up and Beltran due to return sometime this summer.  The Mets have the lowest gb% and fb% in the NL which leaves them with a 1.01 gb%/fb%.  They also have the second lowest ld% with a 16.9 mark.  Their 7.1 hr/fb% should trend up some, while their 12.1 iffb% should trend downwards a bit.

Since the beginning of May, the Mets’ k/9 has dropped a bit from 8.05 to 7.60 but they still are walking an NL high 4.42 batters per 9 innings.  They are middle of the pack in the NL with a .93 hr/9.  The pitchers have a combined .311 BABIP and a 76.2% strand rate.  Their FIP has regressed from 3.90 in the beginning of May to 4.32 with an xFIP of 4.52.  Injuries to John Maine and Jon Niese have derailed the Mets pitching some, so they’ll likely need Hisanori Takahashi to step up and prove he can put in quality outings like his first two if the Mets are to improve upon any of these marks.

Still early in the season, but the Mets fielders have played relatively well.  They are in 5th in the NL with a 3.7 UZR/150, and are in positive territory in all components of UZR (range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs, and error runs combined).  Angel Pagan has been outstanding in CF with a 7.4 UZR, while Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo have both been in positive territory with a 1.1 and .9 UZR, respectively.  They are third in the NL in that ancient FP% stat, and have only made 27 errors, good for fourth in the NL.

The Mets are beginning to get better performances from their position players and it is without question June will be a pivotal month for this team to hopefully get a few or more games above .500.  Niese should be returning to the mound shortly, but their pitching will be far from safe even then.  Takahashi or R.A. Dickey could man the 5th spot, but it may be time for Omar to make a trade for a SP, with John Maine and Oliver Perez unable to be relied upon to give quality outings any time this season, or perhaps, ever again as members of the Mets.  Three roster changes to look for in June: Jenrry Mejia getting stretched out to start, Carlos Beltran’s return to the lineup and the inevitable (!?) Jeff Francoeur/Angel Pagan platoon, and Oliver Perez’s fate.

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May 26, 2010

How Do the Met Pitchers Stack Up Against Quality Hitters?

By Richard Gross

We got our very first taste of Interleague play this past weekend with the Mets taking on the Yankees at CitiField. All in all, the Mets faired well, taking two of three and got some solid pitching performances from starters Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana. They were able to effectively keep much of the potent Yankee lineup in check, which led me to ponder the blessings and curses of Interleague play from the Mets perspective. Let’s face it, when the Mets can take a series from the Yankees, it’s at least cause for Met fans to hold their heads up high and have some pride in their team—at least for a little while. But when things don’t go the Mets’ way, we lament the unfairness of Interleague play, “Why do the Mets always have to play the Yankees two times every season? I don’t see the Phillies having to take on the World Champions as part of their regular season ritual.”

No Interleague is not fair. The schedule and match-ups are unbalanced, although it serves as a great marketing tool for MLB. From that standpoint, it works. Granted, it would be easier for the Mets to move to Toledo, Ohio and take on the Cleveland Indians every year, but that’s not the hand that’s been dealt and if the Mets are to be the talk of the town and grab the back page headlines, they have to take the fight to the baseball diamond where it counts. Fair enough.

But just how tough is the competition the Mets have to face compared to Phillies or other teams in the league? The Cub pitchers, being in the same division as the Cardinals, have to face Albert Pujols on a regular basis. That’s no picnic. Glad the Mets only play the Cardinals 6 times a year. But the Mets have their own problems, because they have to face the likes of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez and long-time Met killer Larry “Chipper” Jones on a pretty regular basis. Choose your poison.

So let’s break this down and take a look at the Mets pitching staff this year and identify not only what batters are hitting off of Met pitchers but also the quality of the hitters they face. First, take a look at this chart and then I’ll go into more detail about the numbers.

Pitcher

AVG

OBP

SLG

Q-AVG

Q-OBP

Q-SLG
Johan Santana

.243

.291

.364

.263

.339

.403
Francisco Rodriguez

.193

.284

.313

.257

.330

.401
Hisanori Takahashi

.235

.321

.348

.256

.331

.403
John Maine

.297

.398

.506

.256

.335

.409
Raul Valdes

.255

.308

.408

.255

.331

.400
Fernando Nieve

.215

.357

.380

.253

.326

.404
Oliver Perez

.269

.404

.440

.251

.328

.396
Jenrry Mejia

.278

.387

.392

.250

.327

.390
Jonathon Niese

.322

.392

.460

.249

.329

.390
Mike Pelfrey

.258

.325

.378

.246

.325

.394

The three columns after the pitcher’s name are pretty straight forward. They represent the batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage of opponents against that particular pitcher. We see that Francisco Rodriguez, so far, has been the toughest to get a hit off of with opponents batting average of .193 and Jonathon Niese has been hit pretty hard at .322. John Maine has been more prone to give up extra base hits with an opponent slugging of .506 and once again K-Rod has kept the extra base damage down to a minimum.

The last three columns represent the aggregate batting average (and OBP and SLG) of all of the hitters that pitcher has faced. “Q-AVG” stands for Quality Average which represents the quality of the batters that that particular pitcher has faced.

Let’s give an example. Hypothetically, let’s say that Santana is facing a team where every one of the batters, from top to bottom, is batting exactly .300. This would be a good hitting lineup and the aggregate batting average against this team would be .300. So the Q-AVG would be .300 which represents the difficulty of these hitters that Santana has to pitch to. If Santana were to hold this team to 6 hits after facing 25 batters, his opponent average would be .240. We can then identify that Santana did a really nice job containing this offense to just 6 hits when normally they would have done better since the overall quality of the hitters showed that they were .300 hitters. . But when we are talking about Q-AVG, we are not talking about just one lineup, but rather the collective aggregate averages of all the hitters Santana has faced so far this season.

So what conclusions can we draw from this? Santana, Rodriguez and Takahashi are the three Met pitchers who have faced the highest average of quality hitters. And it appears for all three pitchers that the numbers they have produced are lower than the Q-AVG, Q-OBP, Q-SLG, indicating they have done very well. Pelfrey has faced the lowest quality hitters at .246 and his opponent batting average of .258 suggest that he has not been doing as good of a job keeping them in check. But he has done well in the Q-SLG department keeping extra base hits lower than the slugging average of his collective opponents. John Maine has been mauled in the Q-SLG category and Jonathon Niese has been far too easy to hit in every category compared to the quality of batters he has been up against.

To help put this into context, of all pitchers in the N.L. who have pitched more than 50 innings, Zach Duke of Pittsburgh has faced the highest quality of hitters with a Q-AVG of .265. However, he has not done well as opponents are hitting .309 against him this year. Johan Santana is third on the list with his Q-AVG of .263, behind Jon Garland of the Padres (Q-AVG of .264). So we see what Santana has been able to achieve is very good when you consider the quality of hitters he has had to face.

Conversely, Bronson Arroyo (Q-AVG.234/ AVG.242), Brad Penny (Q-AVG.237/AVG.293) and Josh Johnson (Q-AVG .239/ AVG .201) have faced the lowest quality of hitters in the N.L. Lucky them.

Based upon the chart, we can derive some ideas about how good, poor or just plain lucky some pitchers have been. The data is subjective and can be interpreted a multitude of ways. Perhaps as the season moves along, Santana won’t face quite the quality of hitters he has been facing and therefore his ERA will improve. Perhaps because of his ace status, managers from other teams will continue to roll out their best hitters rather than give them a rest day knowing they will need to generate as many run opportunities against Santana as they can. Or perhaps he’s just gotten some bad luck thrown his way and he has managed to perform better than the collective average of these hitters, which reinforces Santana’s overall excellence.

But one thing we can confirm is that baseball is not always a fair game. Some teams will somehow avert having to face Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum where other teams will have to face them two, maybe three times before the season is over. Some teams are in a weaker division. Some teams have the DH. Some teams will get a break because their opponent’s best hitter is on the DL or in a slump. And yes, some teams have to face a cross-town rival, with the highest payroll in baseball on a regular basis as their cross to bear through a long season. It’s not always fair but the game is definitely perfectly imperfect (or is that imperfectly perfect?—You decide.)

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May 21, 2010

Jerry Manuel and the Players-Communication Breaking Down?

By Richard Gross

medium_manuelThe winds of discontent are stirring and they are beginning to blow directly at the Mets. We’ve seen this pattern before, haven’t we? The numbers increasing in the loss column of the standings but not so much in the win column. Injuries, poor pitching, poor hitting and uninspired play that show every crack, wrinkle and blemish as if the team was standing under a fluorescent light. Yes, this is the 2010 New York Mets and sadly it’s looking much like the 2008 New York Mets that showed their manager the ‘Exit” sign in the early part of the season. As the sage-like Yogi Berra once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again”.

I remember being at Angel Stadium in Anaheim on June 17th, 2008 for Jerry Manuel’s very first game as manager after the abrupt, clumsy dismissal of Willie Randolph. The Mets took it on the chin that night with a 6-1 loss as John Lackey completely stifled the Met offense. However, the game had started out with a dash of promise as Jose Reyes singled to lead off the game. When Reyes reached first base, Manuel saw something he didn’t like. It appeared that Reyes’ leg was bothering him and Manuel pulled him from the game. Reyes barked and argued with Manuel but eventually retreated to the dugout. Jerry Manuel was already ruffling feathers not one out into his tenure as the new Mets’ manager and the Reyes/Manuel incident was exacerbated by Manuel’s “gangsta” comments.

We’ve seen this pattern with Manuel. He seems deft at handling the media, but seems to alienate some of his players. Most notably was Ryan Church who seemed to be Manuel’s favorite pin cushion as he consistently challenged Church’s intensity to play even after returning to the field from a concussion. Manuel used the public media as his podium and seemed to circumvent communication with Church directly. Much of Church’s understanding about Manuel’s feeling came from the media, not from Manuel.

Just this past week, Manuel has flexed his managerial muscles by benching Jeff Francoeur in Atlanta, Francoeur’s hometown. He also gave David Wright an un-wanted day of rest and unceremoniously pulled John Maine after 5 pitches in Thursday’s game stating he wanted to “protect” Maine. Certainly, its Manuel’s prerogative to make decisions that he feels are best for the team. But what seems to be lacking is the communication between the manager and player. In Francoeur’s case, Francoeur could have been told about his benching beforehand to save the trip that friends and family had made out to the TED. In Maine’s case, Maine maintained that he couldn’t understand why he was being pulled from the game. Sure, there was something about Maine’s warm-up that Manuel and pitching coach Dan Warthen didn’t like. But it seems that many of these decisions are somehow not being conveyed appropriately to the players.

In truth, Manuel’s decision to pull Maine should be praised and he should be equally lauded for having reliever Raul Valdes ready in the bullpen. Whether Maine really doesn’t understand why he was pulled from the game is up for debate. Maine’s a huge competitor and obviously wants the ball so perhaps much of his anger is bunched up in denial. Maine doesn’t have to like Manuel’s decision, but he at least needs to respect it and it’s uncertain that that is happening. It’s that lack of respect that separates the manager from the player rather than connecting them. It’s unclear, but it seems that Jerry might be losing some of that respect.

Manuel obviously is trying to do what’s best for the team. That’s not in question. Some of his decisions are questionable as he seems to have a tendency to over-manage in games, and experiment with lineups and player roles (i.e. Reyes), but there is little doubt that all of these are in an effort to notch victories. His logic can be questioned but certainly not his intent. But in the process, he appears to be creating rifts between himself and the players through poor communication and not clearly identifying his plans. It leaves the players unsettled and unsure of what their roles are and whether the manager has a clear direction for the team–for that matter the organization as a whole. And that’s where trouble starts to brew.

Hmmm…sound familiar? My colleague Adam wrote an article discussing some of the merits of Willie Randolph’s tenure with the Mets. But he also mentioned how some of the players, like Carlos Delgado, disengaged from Randolph. Like Randolph, we are starting to hear players make comments about Manuel in a similar tone as the ones that were made about Randolph prior to his dismissal. Phrases like, “Well, it’s the manager’s decision. I just do what I’m told” or “I don’t know why I needed the day off” or “I’m sure the manager is trying to do what’s best for the team” are starting to leak out. These ambivalent words of “support” neither have the manager’s back nor are they completely damning. But anyone can read between the lines and get an idea from the tone that things are not gumdrops and lollipops in the Mets’ clubhouse.

June 16th is rapidly approaching. Will Manuel make it past that day or like Randolph will he be shown the “Exit” sign? These are pivotal days approaching, not just for the team but for Manuel’s future. A good showing against the Yankees and some wins will certainly buy Manuel more time. But it appears that it’s just a matter of time before a change in leadership occurs. The Mets’ seasons are beginning to look like scenes from “Groundhog Day” and unfortunately the Prophet Yogi Berra’s words seem truer than ever.

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May 20, 2010

I'm so glad the Mets fired Willie Randolph. He was clearly the problem…

By mfgz

Every fan remembers waking up on Tuesday, June 17, 2008 and hearing the news that the Mets had fired Willie Randolph at 3:00A.M., after they had just beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, improving their record to 33-34. The firing of Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson, and Tom Nieto (I mean, he was clearly a terrible first base coach, let’s be serious.) came on the heels of one of the worst collapses in professional sports history and a less than stellar start to the 2008 season. Jerry Manuel was hired as the new manager and management promised to do all they could to make sure the team would return to its winning ways.

Since that time, the Mets have gone through another September collapse, a nightmare season in 2009, and another unsatisfactory start this year. Jerry Manuel is now almost surely going to lose his job, and the Mets are in danger of becoming the club they were six years ago, right before Willie Randolph was hired.

After Randolph’s firing in ’08, mostly everybody agreed it was something that needed to be done. Writers were picking apart Willie, saying he couldn’t handle the pressure and didn’t possess what it took to be a championship manager. And the fans agreed. Why? Because…well…I don’t know…

If you look at Willie Randolph’s managing career for the final four months of his tenure (September 2007, April-June 2008) then, yes, his team was definitely not playing up to their expectations. But people seem to forget about the other two seasons and five months, a period of time where the Mets had won more games than any other NL team. So please, allow me to remind you.

Let’s start off with some basic stats. Willie Randolph’s career record as Mets manager was 302-253, good for a .544 winning percentage.  Only Davey Johnson (.588) has a higher winning percentage. Let me put that in perspective for you: Willie has a higher career winning percentage as Mets manager than Gil Hodges (.523) and Bobby Valentine (.534), a man who many Mets fans want to replace Manuel. He was a Carlos Beltran swing away from going to the World Series in 2006. 

These facts alone should prove that Willie was indeed a good manager, but I’m going to go even further.

Let’s flashback to 2005. The Mets had just finished the past season 71-91, they had traded their number one prospect for Victor Zambrano, and were totally irrelevant in the sports world. All of a sudden, Omar Minaya came in, overpaid to signed Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, and was hailed as the Mets savior. But does anybody remember what the rest of that team looked like?

Well for starters, Doug Mientkiewicz was the starting first baseman, Miguel Cairo wound up playing 100 games and replacing Kaz Matsui as the starting second baseman, and Mike Piazza hit .251. Yikes! I didn’t even mention that the 3-4-5 starters were Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano, and the revolving door that was Kaz Ishii, Jae Seo, and Aaron Heilman, or that their closer was Braden Looper, or that Carlos Beltran finished with only 16 home runs and 78 RBI while hitting a pedestrian .266. Oh yeah, it was also only David Wright’s first full season in the league and Jose Reyes’s second.

Somehow, Willie Randolph managed that team to an 83-79 record and had them within a game of the Wild Card going into September. If you’re going to crucify him for 2007, then you also need to praise him for 2005.

Now let’s move onto 2006. It was one of the most successful seasons in Mets history: 97 wins, finishing 12 games ahead of the second place Phillies, and making it to Game 7 of the NLCS. Sure, the team was helped by the acquisitions of Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Billy Wagner. But allow me remind everybody of some of the starting pitchers the Mets featured in 2006 (number of starts in parentheses): rookie John Maine (16), Alay Soler (8), Oliver Perez (7) — who was 3-13 that season, Brian Bannister (6), Dave Williams (5), Victor Zambrano (5), rookie Mike Pelfrey (4), Jose Lima (4), and the late Geremi Gonzalez (4). Those guys pitched in a total of 58 games, yet somehow the Mets only lost 65 games all season! Can you see Jerry Manuel only losing 65 games with those guys making starts for him?

Then, of course, there was 2007. The season that, all of a sudden, Willie Randolph became a terrible manager. Nevermind the fact that he had to depend on the oh so durable Moises Alou to stay healthy and be a force in the lineup, or that Jose Reyes decided to turn into Rey Ordonez in Septmeber without warning anybody. Forget about the fact that Brian Lawrence and Philip Humber were starting games in the final two weeks of the season, or that the bullpen consisted of the following names: Jorge Sosa, Guillermo Mota, Aaron Sele, Willie Collazo, Carlos Muniz, Jon Adkins, and something called Lino Urdaneta. Yeah, right. Can we really put all the blame on the manager when all those things factored in as well? Should Willie have been held somewhat responsible for what happened in 2007? Absolutely.

But, what happened in 2008, when Willie wasn’t their manager? Oh, that’s right, the team did the EXACT SAME THING!

There were rumblings that Willie lost the clubhouse along the way. I can’t say if this was true or not, since I’ve never stepped foot into the Mets clubhouse at any point in my life, but I can have my doubts. Who did he lose? Carlos Delgado, who has always been known as a curmudgeon wherever he goes? Billy Wagner, who was disappointed with the team in general (I think we all remember his “why don’t you go talk to them over there? Oh that’s right, they left.”)? Ruffling those guys feathers should come as no surprise. But what about the rest of the team? Jose Reyes and David Wright both credited Willie for developing them into All-Stars and Carlos Beltran has never had a bad word about anyone.

Since the firing of Randolph, the Mets have not only gotten worse, they are right back to where they were in 2004. Was he the best manager of all time? No, but he wasn’t terrible. In fact, I would even say he was a very good manager. The one story I will always remember about Willie came during the end of the 2005 season. The Mets had just lost to the Cardinals and were officially eliminated from playoff contention. On the way out of the stadium, Willie was walking with David Wright and told him to remember the feeling and let it fuel him for the rest of his career. I don’t think either of them could have imagined the feeling everyone has now.

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May 19, 2010

Mets at Nationals (5/19-5/20): series at a glance

By mfgz

When I talked about the importance of the rest of this road trip for the Mets on Monday, I didn’t expect to scare Mr. Wilpon so much that he and the rest of the front office felt the need to fly down to Atlanta to “talk” about things. Regardless, it seems as though management’s sudden sense of urgency didn’t seem to rub off on the team. Though they split the two game series in Atlanta, neither game featured an energized ball club that was determined to turn things around.
So now it’s onto the nation’s capital, where the Mets will look to take a winning streak into this weekend’s Subway Series. This short two game series will feature possibly the two least exciting pitching matchups you will ever see, with RA Dickey facing the ageless Livan Hernandez and John Maine going against Luis Atilano.
The former Met, Hernandez, has seemingly dipped into the Fountain of Youth early in the season, posting a 4-2 record and a 1.46 ERA. You might remember, He began his season with 7 shutout innings en route to a 5-0 victory over Johan Santana on April 11. But look a little closer and you’ll see he will probably show himself as Fool’s Gold sometime soon. His FIP is 4.90, over three full points greater than his ERA, and he has a LOB% of 98.6%. That last stat should come as no surprise to Mets fans, who know Livan is prone to give up many hits.
As for RA (I’m sorry, but I feel awkward having to type “Dickey”), he makes his Mets debut after a 4-2 record with a 2.42 ERA in AAA-Buffalo. The highlight of his season, and maybe his professional career, came on April 29 of this year against the Durham Bulls, when RA gave up a lead-off hit then went on to retire the next 27 batters in a row. Obviously, Crash Davis was not in the lineup.
While the Nationals will try to figure out how to handle RA’s knuckleball, here is how the Mets have fared against Livan (Note: David Wright will most likely get the night off tonight which, despite his numbers against Hernandez, is much needed):

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

58

.190

.217

.190

.406

Jose Reyes

47

.277

.306

.447

.753

Alex Cora

45

.244

.306

.289

.595

David Wright

36

.333

.400

.750

1.150

Henry Blanco

21

.381

.435

.524

.959

Fernando Tatis

20

.450

.500

.950

1.450

Jeff Francoeur

15

.400

.500

.867

1.367

Gary Matthews Jr.

13

.077

.077

.154

.231

Jason Bay

12

.250

.250

.333

.583

Rod Barajas

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Tomorrow, the series wil conclude with a re-match from May 10 at Citi Field, when Luis Atilano bested John Maine in a 3-2 Nats victory. Atilano did not allow a run in 5.1 innings, while Maine allowed 2 runs in 6 innings. This will only be the rookie’s second appearance against the Mets, so posting stats would be a waste of everybody’s time.  As for Maine, he has handled the big bats of the Nationals pretty well. Ryan Zimmerman has a measley .189 average against him in 37 at-bats, though he does have two home runs. Adam Dunn has also struggled in 12 at-bats off Maine with a .167 average, and Josh Willingham is only hitting .154 in 13 at-bats. Each also have a home run off him, however.
Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Conditions will be mild tonight, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s and 6mph winds from the west. Tomorrow will be much of the same,  with a daytime high of 79 degrees and winds blowing at 7mph from the north. The Mets have yet to win a game this season when it’s been greater than 70 degrees. The Nationals have won six.

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May 18, 2010

Is Washburn a Viable Option for Mets?

By Richard Gross

WashburnJarrodTIgersIn just the past few days the Mets’ starting pitching situation has been looking pretty bleak, not that it was a wealth of riches before. Oliver Perez has been banished to the bullpen (is there any chance that he can just stay there until his contract expires?). Jon Niese has a strained hamstring, reminiscent of last year’s leg injury that ended his season prematurely. And John Maine continues to labor from start to start, trying to will his way through 6 innings. Have you ever seen a pitcher work so hard to achieve such mediocre results? As Matt pointed out in this article, the Mets choices are limited both on the major league level and dipping into the minors.

So what are the other options?

There’s always the possibility of a trade. Roy Oswalt’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors indicating that if traded, he would like to go to a contending club. Not sure if the Mets qualify under his criteria of “contending”, but he would certainly be a good sidekick to Johan Santana. But the Mets would have to trade some pieces to get an Oswalt. Presumably, Ike Davis is not for sell as is Jenrry Mejia who was just sent down to the minor to resume his career path as a starter. Fernando Martinez remains a trade chip, but for an aging pitcher with back problems like Oswalt, Martinez would be a high price. Once Carlos Beltran is shown to be healthy, Angel Pagan could be viable trade bait that could actually land a usable pitcher.

But the problem with a trade is that it’s early in the year and teams are still trying to settle into the season and many general managers are not sure as of yet if they are buyers or sellers. Certainly any trade the Mets could pull off would probably not result in the highest return of value for whoever they gave up.

So where else do the Mets look for pitching? How about the free agent market?

They are some notable names that are still unsigned and looking for possible opportunities to play. Paul Byrd (39), Brandon Backe (32), Daniel Cabrera (29), Mark Prior (29) and John Smoltz (43) are all still available but highly risky choices as they are either coming back from injuries or perhaps fighting back the onset of time.

Pedro Martinez (38) is also still available. He proved to be a decent weapon for Philadelphia last year. The thing about Pedro is that irregardless of his waning abilities, he still has a fire in his belly to compete and he can usually go through a batting order a couple of times simply outthinking the opposing hitters. But Pedro is a fragile, aging talent and his arm has seen a lot of mileage.

And then there’s Jarrod Washburn (35), who is probably the best and healthiest arm available and certainly able to help out a team in need. Granted, he’s not an ace pitcher, but when you look at the group that currently makes up the Mets rotation, Washburn is certainly an upgrade over some of the pitchers that are currently taking the mound for the Mets.

Washburn has a career 4.10 ERA and a 107 – 109 lifetime record. Over the past 9 years, he’s averaged 182 innings per season which at least shows some consistency. Early in 2009, he was pitching over his head with Seattle compiling a 2.64 ERA in a 133 innings before being traded to Detroit where the wheels fell off. Historical trend analysis on Washburn could have predicted the regression in Detroit and Washburn finished the season with a typical Washburn-like season: good but not great.

Washburn has always been an A.L. pitcher and like a Javier Vazquez could potentially thrive in the weaker hitting N.L. He’s been very effective at neutralizing left-handed hitters throughout his career with lefties hitting just .237 off of him and a WHIP of 1.12. This would work nicely against division rivals like the Phillies.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle standing in the way for the Mets is that Washburn is a Scott Boras client. Back in January, Washburn had turned down a $5 million offer from the Twins. Last year Washburn was paid $10.35 million. This is big money for a player, but last year Washburn had a WAR (wins above replacement player) of 2.1 which converts to about $9.4 million in today’s market. So Boras will make a case for Washburn to earn pretty close to that kind of money.

Granted as the season moves along, the contract demands may lessen, but Boras plays extreme hardball for his clients. He’s the kind of agent that could take a pig, put a dress and lipstick on it and make you want to take it to the prom as your date. Look how he feed Oliver Perez to the Mets making them believe they were getting crème brulee when all he really is is 5 year-old Christmas fruit cake that’s been passed around and re-gifted.

But Washburn could be an interesting choice to anchor the Mets and provide some consistency from start to start. If the Mets have money to spend, he’s the best option out there and he wouldn’t cost the team any talent from their farm system. Washburn may not be a good fit for teams like the Angels, Giants or that team over in the Bronx. But for the Mets…I repeat, for the Mets…he could be a tulip in a field of poison ivy.

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