Tag Archives: Jon Garland

Padres vs. Mets (6/8-6/10) – Series Preview

What a great upcoming series this will be. The best team in the National League is travelling into Citi Field to face the best team in baseball!…What?…What am I talking about, you say? Well, the Mets DO have the best home record in Major League Baseball. So if they didn’t have to endure that huge inconvenience of going on the road every other week, they would have the best record in baseball! And since they’re at home for this series, I say it’s fair to call them the best team in baseball until Friday, when they turn turn into one of the worst.

You’re also probably wondering how the San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League. I mean, this is an offense that has a .250 team batting average, have scored a mere 242 runs, and are second-to-last in the NL in home runs (42). Yet, even with their offensive struggles, the Friars sport a +54 run differential, the best in the National League.

The key has been their pitching. Coming into this series, the Padres lead MLB with a 3.02 team ERA, are second in MLB with a .231 BAA and are third in the NL with 447 strikeouts. The starting staff has two underrated, young arms which will be facing the Mets this series: Mat Latos and Clayton Richard.

Richard’s last start came last Wednesday against the Mets in San Diego. He pitched well, going 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts in a no-decision. In that start he went up against Johan Santana, who was brilliant. Tonight, he goes up against another Mets starter who has been brilliant all year in Mike Pelfrey. Most of the following stats for Met hitters against Richard are a result of last week:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Alex Cora

6

.000

.143

.000

.143

Angel Pagan

6

.167

.167

.167

.333

David Wright

5

.200

.333

.200

.533

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.500

.400

.900

Rod Barajas

4

.250

.250

.500

.750

Fernando Tatis

3

.667

.667

1.000

1.667

Ike Davis

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Henry Blanco

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Jose Reyes

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Jason Bay

2

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Mat Latos takes the hill tomorrow night against Johan. Latos made one start against the Mets last season, where he went 6 innings and allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory. Since that was his only appearance against the Amazin’s, posting player stats would be pointless. As for Santana, he has not allowed a run in his last two outings, yet doesn’t have a win to show for either, as the Mets offense totaled only 1 run in those starts and the bullpen was unable to hold things together.

In the series finale on Thursday afternoon, a resurgent Jon Garland will take on RA Dickey. Garland was a name thrown around during the off-season for the Mets, and has shown so far that he would have been a nice addition to the starting staff. So far this season, Garland is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA. However, a 4.17 FIP suggests that could change soon. Most of Garland’s success this season has come from the ground ball, as he has a 52% ground ball rate. As for the Mets, here’s how they’ve stacked up against Garland over the years:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Rod Barajas

21

.333

.391

.762

1.153

Alex Cora

13

.231

.231

.385

.615

Henry Blanco

12

.167

.333

.250

.583

David Wright

10

.100

.100

.100

.200

Jeff Francoeur

10

.500

.583

.900

1.483

Fernando Tatis

4

.750

.833

1.000

1.833

Jose Reyes

3

.667

.667

1.333

2.000

Jason Bay

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Angel Pagan

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Tonight should be a nice night for baseball, with mostly sunny skies, tempratures in the low 70s and 11mph winds blowing from NW. If you have or were thinking about getting tickets for tomorrow’s game, however, hold up. The forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s and a 70% chance of rain. On Thursday, the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, with temperatures in the mid 70s and 12mph winds from NW.


How Do the Met Pitchers Stack Up Against Quality Hitters?

We got our very first taste of Interleague play this past weekend with the Mets taking on the Yankees at CitiField. All in all, the Mets faired well, taking two of three and got some solid pitching performances from starters Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana. They were able to effectively keep much of the potent Yankee lineup in check, which led me to ponder the blessings and curses of Interleague play from the Mets perspective. Let’s face it, when the Mets can take a series from the Yankees, it’s at least cause for Met fans to hold their heads up high and have some pride in their team—at least for a little while. But when things don’t go the Mets’ way, we lament the unfairness of Interleague play, “Why do the Mets always have to play the Yankees two times every season? I don’t see the Phillies having to take on the World Champions as part of their regular season ritual.”

No Interleague is not fair. The schedule and match-ups are unbalanced, although it serves as a great marketing tool for MLB. From that standpoint, it works. Granted, it would be easier for the Mets to move to Toledo, Ohio and take on the Cleveland Indians every year, but that’s not the hand that’s been dealt and if the Mets are to be the talk of the town and grab the back page headlines, they have to take the fight to the baseball diamond where it counts. Fair enough.

But just how tough is the competition the Mets have to face compared to Phillies or other teams in the league? The Cub pitchers, being in the same division as the Cardinals, have to face Albert Pujols on a regular basis. That’s no picnic. Glad the Mets only play the Cardinals 6 times a year. But the Mets have their own problems, because they have to face the likes of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez and long-time Met killer Larry “Chipper” Jones on a pretty regular basis. Choose your poison.

So let’s break this down and take a look at the Mets pitching staff this year and identify not only what batters are hitting off of Met pitchers but also the quality of the hitters they face. First, take a look at this chart and then I’ll go into more detail about the numbers.

Pitcher

AVG

OBP

SLG

Q-AVG

Q-OBP

Q-SLG

Johan Santana

.243

.291

.364

.263

.339

.403

Francisco Rodriguez

.193

.284

.313

.257

.330

.401

Hisanori Takahashi

.235

.321

.348

.256

.331

.403

John Maine

.297

.398

.506

.256

.335

.409

Raul Valdes

.255

.308

.408

.255

.331

.400

Fernando Nieve

.215

.357

.380

.253

.326

.404

Oliver Perez

.269

.404

.440

.251

.328

.396

Jenrry Mejia

.278

.387

.392

.250

.327

.390

Jonathon Niese

.322

.392

.460

.249

.329

.390

Mike Pelfrey

.258

.325

.378

.246

.325

.394

The three columns after the pitcher’s name are pretty straight forward. They represent the batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage of opponents against that particular pitcher. We see that Francisco Rodriguez, so far, has been the toughest to get a hit off of with opponents batting average of .193 and Jonathon Niese has been hit pretty hard at .322. John Maine has been more prone to give up extra base hits with an opponent slugging of .506 and once again K-Rod has kept the extra base damage down to a minimum.

The last three columns represent the aggregate batting average (and OBP and SLG) of all of the hitters that pitcher has faced. “Q-AVG” stands for Quality Average which represents the quality of the batters that that particular pitcher has faced.

Let’s give an example. Hypothetically, let’s say that Santana is facing a team where every one of the batters, from top to bottom, is batting exactly .300. This would be a good hitting lineup and the aggregate batting average against this team would be .300. So the Q-AVG would be .300 which represents the difficulty of these hitters that Santana has to pitch to. If Santana were to hold this team to 6 hits after facing 25 batters, his opponent average would be .240. We can then identify that Santana did a really nice job containing this offense to just 6 hits when normally they would have done better since the overall quality of the hitters showed that they were .300 hitters. . But when we are talking about Q-AVG, we are not talking about just one lineup, but rather the collective aggregate averages of all the hitters Santana has faced so far this season.

So what conclusions can we draw from this? Santana, Rodriguez and Takahashi are the three Met pitchers who have faced the highest average of quality hitters. And it appears for all three pitchers that the numbers they have produced are lower than the Q-AVG, Q-OBP, Q-SLG, indicating they have done very well. Pelfrey has faced the lowest quality hitters at .246 and his opponent batting average of .258 suggest that he has not been doing as good of a job keeping them in check. But he has done well in the Q-SLG department keeping extra base hits lower than the slugging average of his collective opponents. John Maine has been mauled in the Q-SLG category and Jonathon Niese has been far too easy to hit in every category compared to the quality of batters he has been up against.

To help put this into context, of all pitchers in the N.L. who have pitched more than 50 innings, Zach Duke of Pittsburgh has faced the highest quality of hitters with a Q-AVG of .265. However, he has not done well as opponents are hitting .309 against him this year. Johan Santana is third on the list with his Q-AVG of .263, behind Jon Garland of the Padres (Q-AVG of .264). So we see what Santana has been able to achieve is very good when you consider the quality of hitters he has had to face.

Conversely, Bronson Arroyo (Q-AVG.234/ AVG.242), Brad Penny (Q-AVG.237/AVG.293) and Josh Johnson (Q-AVG .239/ AVG .201) have faced the lowest quality of hitters in the N.L. Lucky them.

Based upon the chart, we can derive some ideas about how good, poor or just plain lucky some pitchers have been. The data is subjective and can be interpreted a multitude of ways. Perhaps as the season moves along, Santana won’t face quite the quality of hitters he has been facing and therefore his ERA will improve. Perhaps because of his ace status, managers from other teams will continue to roll out their best hitters rather than give them a rest day knowing they will need to generate as many run opportunities against Santana as they can. Or perhaps he’s just gotten some bad luck thrown his way and he has managed to perform better than the collective average of these hitters, which reinforces Santana’s overall excellence.

But one thing we can confirm is that baseball is not always a fair game. Some teams will somehow avert having to face Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum where other teams will have to face them two, maybe three times before the season is over. Some teams are in a weaker division. Some teams have the DH. Some teams will get a break because their opponent’s best hitter is on the DL or in a slump. And yes, some teams have to face a cross-town rival, with the highest payroll in baseball on a regular basis as their cross to bear through a long season. It’s not always fair but the game is definitely perfectly imperfect (or is that imperfectly perfect?—You decide.)


Fireable Offenses – GM Edition

The Mets are six games into the season and they’ve lost their first two series to two of the worst teams in the NL. The decision to enter the season with lame duck management has already begun to draw a lot of criticism.  I’d like to take this opportunity to start promulgating some fireable offenses.  The following beefs below aren’t actions that will directly get anyone fired, but the results generated by these actions ultimately may.  We all know it starts at the top, but unfortunately we can’t fire the Wilpons.  Many fans think the answer is to boycott games, and though that is everyone’s right as a fan, poor attendance is certainly not going to help our guys on the field and any resulting loss of revenue from decreasing ticket sales probably won’t be enough to urge ownership to sell.

I’ve always considered myself somewhat of an Omar Minaya apologist.  I take issue with how much criticism he actually gets, especially when much of it is ignorant nonsense regarding his supposed desire to build an “all-Latino team”. Most of us dismiss such an unfounded claim and view it as utterly ridiculous. Additionally, we are all in the dark on the amount of control he has and I think he takes too much of a hit for his clumsy public speaking as well as the epic collapses of ‘07 and ‘08.  I label 2009 as a lost season featuring a bizarre injury frequency that no team could recover from.  We all know what happened in the years prior but how much of that can be directly blamed on Omar?  Hindsight is always 20/20 so I’d rather focus on the present, especially when there are plenty of questionable decisions with the roster heading into 2010. I’d like to point out a few decisions that really irritate me.

Omar’s 2010 plan is littered with inconsistent philosophies and contradictions.  The most obvious is the case of Jenrry Mejia.  He should probably be in AA working on his secondary pitches and continuing his development as a starter.  Omar and company ultimately decided a void in the bullpen could be filled by the talented 20 year old.  This is in part based on Jerry Manuel’s advisement and in part based on just how talented the kid really is. It also appears to be an indication that they are taking a win-now approach with their jobs on the line.  This is contradictory to the position they take with the first base void, which makes me question their actual logic behind Mejia’s early promotion.  Ike Davis has 3 years of college ball experience.  He crushed AA last year.  If anything, you would think he’d be the guy that got the call to break camp, especially after Daniel Murphy hit the DL. Whether this is a service time issue or a development issue, it’s simply another example of Omar’s contradictory approach since neither are long term issues that should matter to a GM who may not make it through his contract, let alone the year.

Omar’s offseason moves can also be called into question, the most glaring being the decision not to sign a mid-level starter like Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland, or even a rebound candidate like Eric Bedard.  Personally, I’ve become more critical of the decision not to sign a starter when they placed Nelson Figueroa on waivers.  He has proven to be a very capable starter with respectable FIPs the past two seasons for the Mets: 4.26 in ’08; 4.31 in ’09. The Mets’ rotation depth takes a big hit with the loss of Figueroa and again this shows the inconsistent nature of Omar’s plan. I can live with the decision not to overpay for a starter, but why further deplete your depth by both designating your best spot starter for assignment and assigning your best starting pitching prospect to the bullpen?

These are just a few of the many questionable decisions Omar made heading into 2010. I’m not going to go crazy on Orlando Hudson vs. Luis Castillo. I think we missed the boat on Felipe Lopez. I think they significantly overvalue Fernando Nieve. For the second year in a row they acquired a setup man, in Kelvim Escobar, with injury issues. One of Eno’s biggest beefs seems to be how they left Chris Carter off the roster and I couldn’t agree more. Why was Alex Cora resigned when Ruben Tejada could easily out-produce him for the league minimum? I’m not divulging any groundbreaking secrets here, but I just wanted to emphasize just how confusing management’s plan seems. They can’t possibly think they are contenders, can they? Jerry Manuel will certainly get the ax first, and I’ll discuss some of his fireable offenses in my next post, but I’d be surprised if we see Omar make it through the season if he doesn’t do something about the rotation fast.


Jason Marquis in New York?

Jason Marquis, a Staten Island boy, tells Jeff Francouer who tells Mike Puma at the NY Post that Marquis would love to pitch in New York. This passes for news for the NY Post, I guess.

More interesting is that it puts Jason Marquis on the list of potential mid-market free agents that we’ve been perusing here at Godblessbuckner.com.

Brad Penny
Jon Garland
Doug Davis
Carl Pavano

Where does Marquis fit here? Obviously everything depends on the price, but let’s look at each pitcher’s one- and three-year (average) value to see who’s been best most recently and who’s been best most consistently.

Brad Penny rode a resurgence in velocity this year to a $9 million value. His strikeout rate is sub-par (right under six per nine), but he only walks around three batters a game and has a decent career ground ball rate (45%) that he could easily recover next year. Despite Penny being terrible two years ago, his average value is also close to $9 million.

Jon Garland has actually been the same pitcher for the past three years, at least if you look at his underlying stats. He’s had a strikeout rate just north of four and a decent walk rate around two and a half. He’s also been very hittable, giving up more than a hit per inning. Garland’s value has been in this consistency – where his three-year average value is around $11 million, his full-year low was only $8.4 million (compared to Penny’s $0.5 million last year). He’s a very safe play, but he may come expensive because of it.

Doug Davis is coming off his worst year in seven years, but still earned the Diamondbacks $7.4 million with his statistics this year. Before that, he’s rattled off six straight years of $10 million-plus. He has the best strikeout rate of the group (almost seven per nine), but also the worst walk rate of the bunch (4.5 this year, over four for his career). I doubt Minaya will want to pony up double digit millions for a pitcher with a whip over one and a half, even if his three-year average value hovers around nine million and he’s been consistent.

You may be surprised, even after our post saying that Carl Pavano might be a good sign, that Pavano is coming off the second-best year of the bunch, worth over $15 million because of his ability to keep walks down (1.44 BB/9) and the ball on the ground (45%). The risk is obvious, though, so Pavano becomes the best sign only if he comes the cheapest, or signs the shortest contract. His three-year average value, not surprisingly, is the lowest of the group at $5.7 million (yes, he only accrued $1.4 million in 45 total innings over the two prior years).

Which brings us to Jason Marquis, the high-water man for 2009 value at $17.4 million. His three-year average is not shabby either (almost $11 million). Marquis has found his success with his career high in ground ball percentage (55%) and a four-year low in walk rate (3.08 BB/9). Marquis has had similar walk rates and ground ball percentages before, and since joining the Cubs has been steadily worth over seven million a year.

But look back to years with the Cardinals and some acid reflux may just rise up. In those full three years, he was worth a mere $6 million dollars. If the Mets sign him for three years and $30 million dollars (that should sound familiar), they may just get the Cardinals version of Marquis and feel some serious buyers remorse.

Because each of these guys is flawed, it may be best to just take the cheapest one. Then again, depending on their relationship to Bernie Madoff, the Wilpons and the Mets may not have a choice.


Bat or Pitcher? How about both?

Flashing across the Mets coverage of their disasterpiece against rookie Tommy Hanson tonight was the question: Should the Mets go get a bat or a #2 pitcher this offseason?

My question is: How about both?

With about $25 million coming off the books at the end of this year (Carlos Delgado‘s $12 million, Brian Schneider‘s $4.9 million, Ramon Castro‘s $2.6 million, Marlon Anderson‘s $1.2 million, Scott Schoeneweis‘ $1.6 million, Fernando Tatis‘ $1.7 million, Alex Cora‘s $2 million), it seems reasonable that the team could at least spend $20 million on two players. That could still leave $5 million to add the odd backup catcher and infielder types.

Unless, of course, Bernie Madoff hit the Wilpon’s wallets deeper than we think.

This team is built to win now and it needs a middle of the rotation pitcher and a batter. We’ll handle the batter later, but let’s look at the values that can be had this offseason in the soft middle of the pitching market. Here’s a list of the middle rotation guys that are available that could be bargains:

Brad Penny
Jon Garland
Doug Davis
Carl Pavano

That may not look like a great list, and the dirty little secret is that the best name on the list may just be the least likely pitcher to be signed by a New York team.

Yes, I’m talking about Carl Pavano. Do your best to suppress your nausea. I know the DL over in Yankee Stadium was renamed the Pavano. I know how much money the Yankees spent on him, and how little he produced for the other New York team. I know about the bruised buttocks.

How many former AL rejects need to come over to the NL and play well before we realize that’s a great way to find a bargain for the middle of your rotation? And how about Pavano, who has actually has some secondary stats that show he’s returned to competence?

Consider that his fielding-independent pitching number in the tougher league is 4.02. He’s got his walk rate under two again, which was the harbinger of some of his best seasons. His strikeout rate is the highest its been since he pitched for the Montreal Expos in 2001 (6.49 K/9). He has a solid groundball rate (45%) which is back up from his seven-year low last year. Fangraphs has his value at $14.6 million for the year. Best of all, he’s pitched 176 innings this year, and it seems that the threat of financial insecurity has lit a fire under his bruised buttocks.

If the Mets could get him on a one-year, $8-10 million dollar deal, he’d prove to be a strong number three and a bargain. That seems clear.


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