Big couple of days for big Mike Pelfrey. After posting 15 victories in 2010, the Mets rewarded Pelfrey with a hefty raise. Pelfrey, who earned $500,000 last season, will earn $3.9 million in 2011.
But wait, it gets better. Not only will Big Mike be cashing bigger checks, manager Terry Collins has already announced Pelfrey as the opening day Continue reading
I wrote on Friday that there was no reason the Mets shouldn’t win their weekend series with the Diamondbacks. Well, I forgot about one major reason why they couldn’t (and didn’t): they’re the Mets.
All signs point to this season being over. The Mets are currently tied for third place in the NL East and 6.5 behind Atlanta for first. As tough as that is, they are 7.5 games out of the Wild Card with 5 teams ahead of them and Florida tied. The last time the Mets won two games in a row was June 22-23 vs. Detorit. Now they have to embark on a six game road trip against the Braves and the Phillies in order to save the season, when the last time they won consecutive games on the road was June 11-18 against the Orioles, Indians and Yankees. In fact, that was the only time all season the Mets won two or more games in a row on the road.
A 4-2 roadtrip will do the Mets no good. Even taking two of three from Atlanta still puts them 5.5 games out of first place. Picking up one game in three days when you’re as far out as the Mets are does nothing. They need to go 6-0 or 5-1 at the least, in order to stay in this thing. And that’s a lot to ask considering Atlanta is 34-13 at home, Philly is 34-18 and the Mets are 20-33 on the road.
The good news is the Mets have had success against both teams this season. They’re 5-3 vs. the Braves, outscoring them 20-15, and 4-2 vs. the Phillies while outscoring them 30-22 (everyone remembers the shutout sweep back in May). However, the Phillies did torch the Mets 10-1 and 11-5 back in May. And the last time the Mets played the Braves on July 9-11, Atlanta took two of three in Citi Field.
The Mets also have their work cut out for them with the pitching they will face this week. The series against Atlanta is as follows:
Tonight: Johan Santana vs. Tim Hudson
Tuesday: RA Dickey vs. Derek Lowe
Wednesday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Kris Medlen
When the Mets head to Philadelphia, they will miss Roy Oswalt. They will not miss Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay, however.
Friday: Hisanori Takahashi vs. Joe Blanton
Saturday: Jon Niese vs. Hamels
Sunday: Santana vs. Halladay — if the Mets have a miracle run this week, this matchup will be HUGE.
On paper, it doesn’t look too good this week but like the cliche says: that’s why they play the games.
Let’s Go Mets!
The Mets will conclude their six game homestand this weekend, as well as interleague play, with a three game set against the Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies come into Citi Field at a good time for the Mets, as they have lost three in a row and six out of their last 10. However, thanks to the Mets taking two of three from Detroit, they still sit atop the AL Central by a half game.
The Twins, as always, are getting steady contributions from everyone. Offensively, they rank third in the AL in OBP, 5th in OPS and 4th in walks. Pitchingwise, the Twins rank third in ERA, WHIP, and OBPA. Twins pitchers are hittable, however, as opposing teams have a .266 batting average and 664 hits. The reason the staff has been so successful is that they don’t hurt themselves, having allowed only 155 walks, the least in Major League Baseball.
The series features some interesting pitching matchups, highlighted by Saturday’s game, when Johan Santana faces his old team for the first time since being traded to the Mets in 2008.
Both Mike Pelfrey and Santana need to get back on track. Santana’s recent struggles have been well-documented, so there’s no need to get into them. Pelfrey has struggled his last two outings, giving up 3 runs on 9 hits and only 1 strikeout against Baltimore and 5 runs on 7 hits and only 2 strikeouts against the Yankees. He did manage to go 6 and 7 innings in both starts, though. Jon Niese toes the rubber on Sunday also looking to get back on track, though his last start should be disregarded, considering he was pitching a no-hitter through three innings before the rain came and disrupted things.
This should be an exciting series with two good teams facing each other, Johan Santana facing his old mates for the first time, and getting to see two of the games best duos in Joe Mauer-Justin Morneau and David Wright-Jose Reyes.
These next six games will be a telling sign for the Mets, given their season-long road struggles and the fact that the Orioles and Indians are terrible teams. So, since the Mets can really use these next two series to push them right into the thick of the pennant race, I’m going to combine both series into one preview.
By now you all know the story: the Mets are where they are right now because of their home record (now 24-10 after a 5-1 homestand). On the road, however, they are a putrid 8-18. But they really haven’t had a prime opportunity to make a statement on the road like they do now. I did some math — which means the stats I’m about to point out are probably wrong somewhere along the line — and up to this point, Mets road opponents (Atlanta/Cincinnati/Colorado/Florida/Milwaukee/Philadelphia/San Diego/St. Louis/Washington) have a combined record of 283-258 this season, good for a .523 winning percentage. So they have been playing some quality teams on the road, though it certainly does nto excuse them from playing so poorly.
But the O’s and Indians are a different story. The two teams combine for a 40-79 record, a lousy .336 winning percentage. On top of that, both teams are just as bad at home as the Mets are on the road. The Orioles are only 11-18 at home this season, while the Indians are 10-16. Offensively, of the 30 MLB teams, the Orioles rank 29th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, 26th in slugging, and 27th in OPS. The Indians rank 26h in runs, 25th in slugging, and 25th in OPS. This is good news for Mets pitching, especially given how well the starters have been throwing lately.
This weekend, the Mets will face Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, and Kevin Millwood. There has been a lot of talk about the Mets maybe making a trade for Millwood, but perhaps Guthrie is the one they should be asking the Orioles about. Despite a declining K/9 rate (4.75 this season compared to 5.53 career), all of Guthrie’s other peripherals this season are better than his career numbers. As for Millwood, this season’s 4.64 ERA and 4.95 FIP are bad enough, but then you compare them to his career 3.92 ERA and 3.88 FIP and it’s even worse. And his 7.28 K/9 rate, while good, is also decling from his career average of 8.27.
When the Mets head to Cleveland they will see two of Cleveland’s young arms in Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot (with Jake Westbrook pitching the final game of the series). Masterson and Talbot are interesting when compared with each other. Looking at Masterson’s traditional stat line — 2-5, 4.74 ERA – it’s nothing special. But then you look closer and see a 8.03 K/9 rate, a 4.08 FIP and 3.88 xFIP, which tells you his defense has let him down a lot this season. Then you look at Talbot who, at 7-4, 3.59 ERA, is having a nice first full season. But with a 4.84 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP, it tells you his defense has actually been a lot of help for him. Oh, the quirkyness of baseball.
As for the Mets, they will go with RA Dickey, Hisanori Takahashi and Mike Pelfrey in Baltimore, then attack Cleveland with the lefty duo of Johan Santana and Jon Niese, before RA closes out the series. Interesting to see the knuckleballer opening up these next six games then ending it before next weekend’s showdown in the Bronx.
The Major League Baseball season is almost a third of the way through and prior to tonight’s game vs the Padres the Mets are sitting at .500 with a 26 and 26 record. They went 14-9 in April, but just 12-17 in May, yet they are only 3.5 games behind the Phillies for first place. They are 19-9 at home, but only 7-17 on the road. They are 5-11 in one run games and 2-4 in extra innings. They have outscored their opponents with 235 runs scored to 219 runs against.
The Mets have slipped a bit in walk percentage and strikeout percentage after being tied for third in the NL through one month of the season, leaving them in 8th with a .50 k/bb%. They are tied for 12th in all three triple slash categories, hitting an umimpressive .254/.326/.394. Their BABIP ranks 14th in the NL at .294 but that mark isn’t very far off the league mean. They’ve fared a little better in terms of ranks in ISO with a .140 mark. They do rank first with a 6.3 speed rating. They’ve only hit 41 home runs this season, but have hit 16 triples which is good for third in the NL. The extra base hits should continue to come, especially as Reyes and Pagan continue to heat up and Beltran due to return sometime this summer. The Mets have the lowest gb% and fb% in the NL which leaves them with a 1.01 gb%/fb%. They also have the second lowest ld% with a 16.9 mark. Their 7.1 hr/fb% should trend up some, while their 12.1 iffb% should trend downwards a bit.
Since the beginning of May, the Mets’ k/9 has dropped a bit from 8.05 to 7.60 but they still are walking an NL high 4.42 batters per 9 innings. They are middle of the pack in the NL with a .93 hr/9. The pitchers have a combined .311 BABIP and a 76.2% strand rate. Their FIP has regressed from 3.90 in the beginning of May to 4.32 with an xFIP of 4.52. Injuries to John Maine and Jon Niese have derailed the Mets pitching some, so they’ll likely need Hisanori Takahashi to step up and prove he can put in quality outings like his first two if the Mets are to improve upon any of these marks.
Still early in the season, but the Mets fielders have played relatively well. They are in 5th in the NL with a 3.7 UZR/150, and are in positive territory in all components of UZR (range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs, and error runs combined). Angel Pagan has been outstanding in CF with a 7.4 UZR, while Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo have both been in positive territory with a 1.1 and .9 UZR, respectively. They are third in the NL in that ancient FP% stat, and have only made 27 errors, good for fourth in the NL.
The Mets are beginning to get better performances from their position players and it is without question June will be a pivotal month for this team to hopefully get a few or more games above .500. Niese should be returning to the mound shortly, but their pitching will be far from safe even then. Takahashi or R.A. Dickey could man the 5th spot, but it may be time for Omar to make a trade for a SP, with John Maine and Oliver Perez unable to be relied upon to give quality outings any time this season, or perhaps, ever again as members of the Mets. Three roster changes to look for in June: Jenrry Mejia getting stretched out to start, Carlos Beltran’s return to the lineup and the inevitable (!?) Jeff Francoeur/Angel Pagan platoon, and Oliver Perez’s fate.
After a promising start to the series in Philadelphia with a very convincing victory behind Jon Niese’s efforts, the train ran off the tracks. The Phillies not only trounced the Mets in the final two games, but schooled the Mets’ two best pitchers, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana, as to who are the Beasts of the East. As good as Friday’s victory felt, the loses were disheartening and somewhat demoralizing in that it seemed that a sleeping lion had been awoken and decided to track down it’s prey and rub its face in the dirt. The Mets did come away with one win and dropped only a half a game behind first place. It wasn’t the perfect scenario, but in May we aren’t really looking for perfect; we’re looking for some competitive play and most of all to stay close to the top of the division. In the big picture, the Mets were able to achieve that by avoiding a sweep. And no matter how lop-sided the losses were, they will only show up in the standings as a single, simple loss.
So the Mets leave the City of Brotherly Love and the Phillies, and travel west to start a three-game series against third place Cincinnati. Just as the Phillies series was a test if the Mets can play with the big boys in the same playground, the Reds’ series will test character as to see how resilient this team is and their ability to bounce back after two lop-sided losses. The Reds are a good team to try to get back on track with as they’ve lost their last two games and have won just 6 of their last 10 with a sub-.500 record.
Let’s do our breakdown of how the Met starters for the series have faired against the Reds and how Met batters have done against the Red pitchers that are in line to face them. Let’s hope that the Mets are able to shake the last two games and reestablish the strong pitching and heads-up play they displayed during the 10-1 home stand.
Oliver Perez–Career
|
Games |
Record |
ERA |
IP |
BB |
K |
Opponent BA |
|
19 |
9-5 |
4.54 |
105 |
57 |
128 |
.252 |
John Maine–Career
|
Games |
Record |
ERA |
IP |
BB |
K |
Opponent BA |
|
3 |
0-3 |
9.88 |
13.2 |
11 |
10 |
.339 |
Jon Niese–Career
|
Games |
Record |
ERA |
IP |
BB |
K |
Opponent BA |
|
Never Faced |
||||||
Angel Pagan — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
8 |
0 |
0 |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
|
Cueto |
3 |
0 |
0 |
.667 |
.667 |
1.333 |
Luis Castillo — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
5 |
0 |
0 |
.400 |
.500 |
.400 |
|
Cueto |
5 |
0 |
2 |
.600 |
.667 |
1.000 |
David Wright — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
22 |
0 |
1 |
.182 |
.250 |
.182 |
|
Cueto |
8 |
0 |
2 |
.250 |
.333 |
.250 |
Jose Reyes — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
22 |
1 |
1 |
.273 |
.304 |
.545 |
|
Cueto |
6 |
0 |
0 |
.167 |
.167 |
.167 |
Jason Bay — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
19 |
0 |
2 |
.316 |
.381 |
.421 |
|
Cueto |
6 |
0 |
0 |
.333 |
.333 |
.500 |
Jeff Francoeur — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
16 |
1 |
1 |
.188 |
.188 |
.375 |
|
Cueto |
5 |
0 |
2 |
.400 |
.500 |
.600 |
Rod Barajas — Career
|
Pitcher |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
AVG. |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Leake |
Never Faced |
|||||
|
Arroyo |
8 |
0 |
0 |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
|
Cueto |
3 |
0 |
0 |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
It looks like we have the opening day lineup and the final construction of the 25-man roster. From Jon Heyman, the lineup:
1. SS Alex Cora
2. 2B Luis Castillo
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Mike Jacobs
5. LF Jason Bay
6. CF Gary Matthews, JR.
7. RF Jeff Francoeur
8. C Rod Barajas
9. SP Johan Santana
That’s pretty upsetting. Not only is Mike Jacobs making the team, he’s batting in the cleanup spot ahead of Jason Bay. Does that make sense to anyone? I’m sure this is some stupid R/L/R handed thing, but you can set this lineup differently so that Jason Bay gets more plate appearances than Mike Jacobs. It’s possible. If this is the lineup against lefties (Jacobs has a .643 OPS vs lefties), Mets management needs to be fired. The day after.
Let’s tackle the idiocy of Gary Matthews Jr over Angel Pagan some other time. It’s just too depressing.
The bench should be Fernando Tatis, Angel Pagan, Ruben Tejada, Henry Blanco and maybe Chris Carter until Daniel Murphy comes back. I’m happy Tejada made the team and I hope they keep him up when people return from injury. I’d rather have him than Alex Cora, whose defense is slipping and whose offense never really existed.
The pitching looks to lineup like this:
1. Johan Santana
2. Jonathon Niese
3. John Maine
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Oliver Perez
I love the fact that Jon Niese is pitching the second game, if only if it’s a symbolic gesture. Niese deserves a little atta-boy and a positive push in the right direction. Let’s hope he responds better than Mike Pelfrey did a similar moment last year.
The bullpen is Francisco Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Hisanori Takahashi, Ryota Igarashi, and Jenrry Mejia. I personally think Takahashi will take a spot in the rotation (Oliver Perez, I’m looking in your direction), but this bullpen looks pretty good, and with the upside Mejia provides, could be dominant if their good years line up this season. As long as the long-term plan is still to make Mejia a starter, I think Mets fans should be happy with this bullpen.
All in all, the team looks like it will have a decent bullpen, a shaky back end of a rotation, and a poor offense. They really need to get lucky with someone at first base, or Ike Davis will be needed a little earlier than they’d hope. Maybe we’ll just start banging the Ike Davis drum so that he replaces Jacobs. Almost anyone would be better than Jacobs.
