Tag Archives: Josh Johnson

How Do the Met Pitchers Stack Up Against Quality Hitters?

We got our very first taste of Interleague play this past weekend with the Mets taking on the Yankees at CitiField. All in all, the Mets faired well, taking two of three and got some solid pitching performances from starters Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana. They were able to effectively keep much of the potent Yankee lineup in check, which led me to ponder the blessings and curses of Interleague play from the Mets perspective. Let’s face it, when the Mets can take a series from the Yankees, it’s at least cause for Met fans to hold their heads up high and have some pride in their team—at least for a little while. But when things don’t go the Mets’ way, we lament the unfairness of Interleague play, “Why do the Mets always have to play the Yankees two times every season? I don’t see the Phillies having to take on the World Champions as part of their regular season ritual.”

No Interleague is not fair. The schedule and match-ups are unbalanced, although it serves as a great marketing tool for MLB. From that standpoint, it works. Granted, it would be easier for the Mets to move to Toledo, Ohio and take on the Cleveland Indians every year, but that’s not the hand that’s been dealt and if the Mets are to be the talk of the town and grab the back page headlines, they have to take the fight to the baseball diamond where it counts. Fair enough.

But just how tough is the competition the Mets have to face compared to Phillies or other teams in the league? The Cub pitchers, being in the same division as the Cardinals, have to face Albert Pujols on a regular basis. That’s no picnic. Glad the Mets only play the Cardinals 6 times a year. But the Mets have their own problems, because they have to face the likes of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez and long-time Met killer Larry “Chipper” Jones on a pretty regular basis. Choose your poison.

So let’s break this down and take a look at the Mets pitching staff this year and identify not only what batters are hitting off of Met pitchers but also the quality of the hitters they face. First, take a look at this chart and then I’ll go into more detail about the numbers.

Pitcher

AVG

OBP

SLG

Q-AVG

Q-OBP

Q-SLG

Johan Santana

.243

.291

.364

.263

.339

.403

Francisco Rodriguez

.193

.284

.313

.257

.330

.401

Hisanori Takahashi

.235

.321

.348

.256

.331

.403

John Maine

.297

.398

.506

.256

.335

.409

Raul Valdes

.255

.308

.408

.255

.331

.400

Fernando Nieve

.215

.357

.380

.253

.326

.404

Oliver Perez

.269

.404

.440

.251

.328

.396

Jenrry Mejia

.278

.387

.392

.250

.327

.390

Jonathon Niese

.322

.392

.460

.249

.329

.390

Mike Pelfrey

.258

.325

.378

.246

.325

.394

The three columns after the pitcher’s name are pretty straight forward. They represent the batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage of opponents against that particular pitcher. We see that Francisco Rodriguez, so far, has been the toughest to get a hit off of with opponents batting average of .193 and Jonathon Niese has been hit pretty hard at .322. John Maine has been more prone to give up extra base hits with an opponent slugging of .506 and once again K-Rod has kept the extra base damage down to a minimum.

The last three columns represent the aggregate batting average (and OBP and SLG) of all of the hitters that pitcher has faced. “Q-AVG” stands for Quality Average which represents the quality of the batters that that particular pitcher has faced.

Let’s give an example. Hypothetically, let’s say that Santana is facing a team where every one of the batters, from top to bottom, is batting exactly .300. This would be a good hitting lineup and the aggregate batting average against this team would be .300. So the Q-AVG would be .300 which represents the difficulty of these hitters that Santana has to pitch to. If Santana were to hold this team to 6 hits after facing 25 batters, his opponent average would be .240. We can then identify that Santana did a really nice job containing this offense to just 6 hits when normally they would have done better since the overall quality of the hitters showed that they were .300 hitters. . But when we are talking about Q-AVG, we are not talking about just one lineup, but rather the collective aggregate averages of all the hitters Santana has faced so far this season.

So what conclusions can we draw from this? Santana, Rodriguez and Takahashi are the three Met pitchers who have faced the highest average of quality hitters. And it appears for all three pitchers that the numbers they have produced are lower than the Q-AVG, Q-OBP, Q-SLG, indicating they have done very well. Pelfrey has faced the lowest quality hitters at .246 and his opponent batting average of .258 suggest that he has not been doing as good of a job keeping them in check. But he has done well in the Q-SLG department keeping extra base hits lower than the slugging average of his collective opponents. John Maine has been mauled in the Q-SLG category and Jonathon Niese has been far too easy to hit in every category compared to the quality of batters he has been up against.

To help put this into context, of all pitchers in the N.L. who have pitched more than 50 innings, Zach Duke of Pittsburgh has faced the highest quality of hitters with a Q-AVG of .265. However, he has not done well as opponents are hitting .309 against him this year. Johan Santana is third on the list with his Q-AVG of .263, behind Jon Garland of the Padres (Q-AVG of .264). So we see what Santana has been able to achieve is very good when you consider the quality of hitters he has had to face.

Conversely, Bronson Arroyo (Q-AVG.234/ AVG.242), Brad Penny (Q-AVG.237/AVG.293) and Josh Johnson (Q-AVG .239/ AVG .201) have faced the lowest quality of hitters in the N.L. Lucky them.

Based upon the chart, we can derive some ideas about how good, poor or just plain lucky some pitchers have been. The data is subjective and can be interpreted a multitude of ways. Perhaps as the season moves along, Santana won’t face quite the quality of hitters he has been facing and therefore his ERA will improve. Perhaps because of his ace status, managers from other teams will continue to roll out their best hitters rather than give them a rest day knowing they will need to generate as many run opportunities against Santana as they can. Or perhaps he’s just gotten some bad luck thrown his way and he has managed to perform better than the collective average of these hitters, which reinforces Santana’s overall excellence.

But one thing we can confirm is that baseball is not always a fair game. Some teams will somehow avert having to face Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum where other teams will have to face them two, maybe three times before the season is over. Some teams are in a weaker division. Some teams have the DH. Some teams will get a break because their opponent’s best hitter is on the DL or in a slump. And yes, some teams have to face a cross-town rival, with the highest payroll in baseball on a regular basis as their cross to bear through a long season. It’s not always fair but the game is definitely perfectly imperfect (or is that imperfectly perfect?—You decide.)


Mets at Marlins (5/13-5/16): series at a glance

After a 3-3 home stand which showed the Mets actually have a little fight in them, the Amazins will now hit the beach for a four game series with the Marlins. There are some interesting pitching match-ups for this series, tonight’s in particular, with Johan Santana going up against Josh Johnson. The Mets got to Johnson on Opening Day, getting four runs off him in five innings en route to a 7-1 victory. Meanwhile, Santana has dominated the Fish in his Mets career. Out of all Marlins hitters with 10 or more at-bats against Johan, Jorge Cantu leads the way with a .259 average. Here’s a look at how the Metsies have fared against Johnson:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

23

.304

.320

.304

.624

David Wright

20

.200

.238

.350

.588

Jose Reyes

16

.250

.368

.375

.743

Fernando Tatis

12

.667

.667

1.000

1.667

Luis Castillo

11

.273

.333

.273

.606

Alex Cora

6

.000

.143

.000

.143

Rod Barajas

6

.167

.167

.167

.333

Jason Bay

6

.500

.500

1.333

1.833

Angel Pagan

6

167

.286

.167

.452

Gary Matthews Jr.

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

On Friday, everybody’s favorite pitcher, Oliver Perez, will face-off against the other prospect in the Josh Beckett-for-Hanley Ramirez trade, Anibal Sanchez. Ollie will want to look out for Cody Ross, who has a career .346 average with three home runs and 10 RBI against him. In reality, this could be a win-win situation for the Mets. If Ollie pitches well and the Mets win, then it’s a good day. If Ollie pitches like Ollie, then perhaps we finally see the Mets do some shaking up in their starting rotation. As far as the other side of the coin goes, here’s a look at the Mets numbers against Sanchez,  whose 4.08 ERA might be a little misleading, as he has a 3.45 FIP:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

18

.222

.222

.444

.667

Jose Reyes

14

.143

.294

.214

.508

David Wright

13

.231

.286

.231

.516

Luis Castillo

4

.250

.400

.250

.650

Fernando Tatis

4

.500

.600

.500

1.100

Alex Cora

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

Angel Pagan

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

On Saturday, the reborn John Maine hits the bump against Nate Robertson. Robertson had a nice start against the Mets in the third game of the year, allowing one run over five innings while striking out four. As for Maine, say what you want about his fastball, it’s working. His last three games have all been quality starts in which he has struck out 20 batters in 18 innings.
Look for Luis Castillo to have a nice game at the plate to help Maine out.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

23

.348

.423

.348

.771

Gary Matthews Jr.

18

.278

.316

.389

.705

Rod Barajas

16

.313

.389

.375

.764

Fernando Tatis

4

.250

.333

.250

.583

Jason Bay

4

.250

.250

.250

.500

David Wright

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Angel Pagan

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Jeff Francoeur

2

1.000

1.000

1.500

2.500

The series concludes Sunday afternoon with Jonathon Niese taking on Ricky Nolasco. It looks like Niese has hit the inevitable bump in the road for any young pitcher, having given up 10 runs on 18 hits in his last two starts, his latest which saw him go only four and a third innings. He was decent in his first start of the year against the Marlins, however, going six strong and allowing three runs in a 3-1 loss. Lucky for him, this time he will be matching up against Nolasco, who the Mets feast off of:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

David Wright

38

.342

.390

.658

1.048

Jose Reyes

32

.406

.424

.781

1.205

Jeff Francoeur

26

.308

.321

.654

.975

Luis Castillo

16

.375

.389

.375

.764

Jason Bay

14

.214

.267

.286

.552

Fernando Tatis

8

.250

.250

.500

.750

Angel Pagan

7

.429

.500

.571

1.071

Alex Cora

5

.600

.667

1.200

1.867

Josh Thole

5

.000

.000

.000

.000

Rod Barajas

4

.250

.200

.250

.450

Gary Matthews Jr.

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): The Mets will be estatic to get out of the blistering cold in New York and into the gorgeous sunshine in Miami. All four games call for temperatures in the mid-high 80s, though strong winds are also expected. The Mets have played only one game this year when it was over 80 degrees, which they lost.


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