Tag Archives: Josh Thole

We’re Baaack…

Did you miss us? Well, on behalf of Matt, Adam and I, it’s good to be back.

We’d like to take a moment to thank Fanball Sports Network for taking us on to blog about our favorite team, the New York Mets. Also, a big thank you to Bryan Douglass who gave us the opportunity Continue reading


Mets at Marlins (5/13-5/16): series at a glance

After a 3-3 home stand which showed the Mets actually have a little fight in them, the Amazins will now hit the beach for a four game series with the Marlins. There are some interesting pitching match-ups for this series, tonight’s in particular, with Johan Santana going up against Josh Johnson. The Mets got to Johnson on Opening Day, getting four runs off him in five innings en route to a 7-1 victory. Meanwhile, Santana has dominated the Fish in his Mets career. Out of all Marlins hitters with 10 or more at-bats against Johan, Jorge Cantu leads the way with a .259 average. Here’s a look at how the Metsies have fared against Johnson:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

23

.304

.320

.304

.624

David Wright

20

.200

.238

.350

.588

Jose Reyes

16

.250

.368

.375

.743

Fernando Tatis

12

.667

.667

1.000

1.667

Luis Castillo

11

.273

.333

.273

.606

Alex Cora

6

.000

.143

.000

.143

Rod Barajas

6

.167

.167

.167

.333

Jason Bay

6

.500

.500

1.333

1.833

Angel Pagan

6

167

.286

.167

.452

Gary Matthews Jr.

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

On Friday, everybody’s favorite pitcher, Oliver Perez, will face-off against the other prospect in the Josh Beckett-for-Hanley Ramirez trade, Anibal Sanchez. Ollie will want to look out for Cody Ross, who has a career .346 average with three home runs and 10 RBI against him. In reality, this could be a win-win situation for the Mets. If Ollie pitches well and the Mets win, then it’s a good day. If Ollie pitches like Ollie, then perhaps we finally see the Mets do some shaking up in their starting rotation. As far as the other side of the coin goes, here’s a look at the Mets numbers against Sanchez,  whose 4.08 ERA might be a little misleading, as he has a 3.45 FIP:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jeff Francoeur

18

.222

.222

.444

.667

Jose Reyes

14

.143

.294

.214

.508

David Wright

13

.231

.286

.231

.516

Luis Castillo

4

.250

.400

.250

.650

Fernando Tatis

4

.500

.600

.500

1.100

Alex Cora

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

Angel Pagan

2

.500

.667

.500

1.167

On Saturday, the reborn John Maine hits the bump against Nate Robertson. Robertson had a nice start against the Mets in the third game of the year, allowing one run over five innings while striking out four. As for Maine, say what you want about his fastball, it’s working. His last three games have all been quality starts in which he has struck out 20 batters in 18 innings.
Look for Luis Castillo to have a nice game at the plate to help Maine out.

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

23

.348

.423

.348

.771

Gary Matthews Jr.

18

.278

.316

.389

.705

Rod Barajas

16

.313

.389

.375

.764

Fernando Tatis

4

.250

.333

.250

.583

Jason Bay

4

.250

.250

.250

.500

David Wright

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Angel Pagan

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Jeff Francoeur

2

1.000

1.000

1.500

2.500

The series concludes Sunday afternoon with Jonathon Niese taking on Ricky Nolasco. It looks like Niese has hit the inevitable bump in the road for any young pitcher, having given up 10 runs on 18 hits in his last two starts, his latest which saw him go only four and a third innings. He was decent in his first start of the year against the Marlins, however, going six strong and allowing three runs in a 3-1 loss. Lucky for him, this time he will be matching up against Nolasco, who the Mets feast off of:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

David Wright

38

.342

.390

.658

1.048

Jose Reyes

32

.406

.424

.781

1.205

Jeff Francoeur

26

.308

.321

.654

.975

Luis Castillo

16

.375

.389

.375

.764

Jason Bay

14

.214

.267

.286

.552

Fernando Tatis

8

.250

.250

.500

.750

Angel Pagan

7

.429

.500

.571

1.071

Alex Cora

5

.600

.667

1.200

1.867

Josh Thole

5

.000

.000

.000

.000

Rod Barajas

4

.250

.200

.250

.450

Gary Matthews Jr.

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): The Mets will be estatic to get out of the blistering cold in New York and into the gorgeous sunshine in Miami. All four games call for temperatures in the mid-high 80s, though strong winds are also expected. The Mets have played only one game this year when it was over 80 degrees, which they lost.


Backstops Bring Belief

0225S5_CatchersDespite the Mets loss on Sunday, the late game heroics are becoming a bit of a habit. Not that that’s a bad thing. The Mets came back against the Giants on Sunday only to have the bullpen falter. But they’ve shown an ability to fight back that’s been absent for quite some time. It energizes the team, provides confidence and a belief that they are never out of it until the final out is made. A couple of standouts from this weekend series were Met catchers Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco who showed that they have not just doing it behind the plate, but they are doing it with their bats. Friday night, Barajas slugged a walk-off home run for his 9th on the year and Blanco, not to be outdone, decided that he too was capable of some dramatic flair as he added a walk-off on Saturday.

The Met catchers this season have combined for 10 home runs, thanks primarily to Barajas, and they currently lead all teams in that department for catchers. Not too shabby when you consider that Met catchers for the entire 2009 season were only able to push 13 home runs over the wall. It would be safe to say that the moves that brought Barajas and Blanco to the Mets are a definite improvement over the hodge-podge group of Josh Thole, Brian Schneider, Omir Santos and Ramon Castro that provided the catching duties last season. It could even be argued that to date, Barajas has been the Mets best off- season signing with the clutch home runs he has hit.

However, it would be surprising and very unlikely to see Barajas maintain anything close to the rate he is hitting home runs. Historically his home run rate is 3.6% and typically averages a home run every 25.8 AB’s. This season, Barajas’ home run rate has jumped up to 10.3% and is hitting one every 9.1 AB’s. All of this home run hitting has put Barajas’ ISO (isolated power) at a ridiculously high .354. To say that that is going to be pretty tough to sustain would be an understatement. Give Barajas credit though because he has been able to do this despite carrying around a terrible OBP of .253.

Defensively, there is little doubt that Blanco is the one with the upper hand as he is 5-for 5 in throwing out base runners. Barajas on the flip side has let all 6 attempts steal against him which is a concern going forward as base runners may be testing him more and more in the future until he proves he can throw them out.

So what do we really have in Barajas? Sometimes Superman. Sometimes Super-Nothing. At the risk of sounding corny (and what’s wrong with corny?), I can’t help but think that all this clutch hitting and heroics by Barajas is reminiscent of the Great and Powerful Wizard of Oz. But like the Wizard, once you got past the exterior and you looked underneath, there wasn’t really a whole lot there. Just an ordinary man which reminds us that Barajas is just an ordinary player. After all, his current WAR (wins above replacement player) of 0.5 grounds us all back to reality.

But despite the fraud the Wizard turned out to be, he had no magical powers, he did provide Dorothy and the gang with one very important gift: hope. Which is what Barajas has given the Mets and their fans of late. He has given them a reason to believe that they can fight, they can come from behind and they can win. This has been missing for a while now and the urgency and the desire seems to have been reignited in a team that in past seasons seemed uninterested and bored. So a tip of the cap to Rod Barajas (and Henry Blanco) this week for providing the Mets something better than home runs: a belief in themselves that they can win. And if nothing else, at least making Mets’ baseball fun again.


Mets Trying to Figure Out What's the Catch

<The article below discusses some of the considerations that Rod Barajas would bring to the Mets.  Shortly after the writing and posting of this article, the Mets signed Barajas to a major league deal–go figure.  Here’s wishing Barajas continued solid defense and a better OBP than .258>

Can you feel it in the air? Yes, it’s that time of the year and the start of the season is just a little over a month away. Since pitchers and catchers reported earlier this week, I thought it might be a good time to evaluate all of the catching options the Mets have this year. Let’s see, there’ rookie Josh Thole. And there’s…hmmm… Omir Santos of course. And…well…um…oh, yes…oh no, not him, he got traded to the White Sox. Oh yeah there’s Henry Blanco. And then, well…I guess there’s Chris Coste. And supposedly the Mets might be close to signing Rod Barajas to a major league contract which would mean that the Blue Jays would receive a compensation pick although at the time of this post that has not happened yet. And, well, that’s it…that’s everyone.

It would be a monumental understatement to say that none of these catchers will be mistaken for Mike Piazza. The combined batting average of all 5 of these players (we’ll throw Barajas in there just for kicks) in 2009 was .240 with a total of 34 home runs. Barajas in fact supplied 56% of that power. Thole had the highest batting average at .321 but with only 53 Major League AB’s and none in AAA, it would be difficult to hand over the full-time catching position to someone so green although he seems to have potential to handle the bat well.

No matter how you slice it, the Mets don’t seem destined to fill the catching spot with any kind of offensive threat. So going into the situation with those realistic expectations, the Mets would do well then to choose the best defensive catcher of the bunch. After all, the catching position is primarily a defensive position and most teams are willing to forgo the bat in favor of a backstop that handle the staff, throw out base runners, provide strong defense and call a solid game.

With a shout out to Sabermetrician Chuck Rosciam, he developed a formula for rating catchers based upon their overall defensive abilities. He took into account the catcher’s stamina to consistently catch games, their ability to throw out runners, their fielding percentage, the ability to be a handle bunts, head’s up game play (double plays and passed balls) and finally the ability to call an effective game. He then took all six of these elements and combined them into one overall rating by which to measure the catcher’s overall defensive effectiveness. While I won’t get into the nitty gritty of his calculations (you can read more about it here), much of the formula is based upon looking at how the individual catcher in question measures against the other catchers on his team and then looking at how he compares against the catchers in the league as a whole.

So before we delve into looking at how the Mets catchers fair against this system, let’s take a test run and look at a proven defensive catcher that is one of the best in baseball: Yadier Molina. We’ll take a look at each of the 6 elements, giving some description on the context and then use Molina as the bar by which to measure the other Met catchers by. Yes, it’s a high bar but we’re throwing offense out the window, right?

  • Stamina– Molina caught 82% of the innings the Cardinals played last season; a very high percentage showing great endurance. If we take that percentage and divide that into the N.L. innings average (1444), Molina scores a rating for stamina of 5.68.
  • Good Glove– This is pretty straightforward. We’ll simply take Moilna’s fielding percentage**of .995 and divide that into the league average for catchers of .993. A rating of 1.00 will indicate that the catcher is right on par with the league. Anything over that is above average. Molina scores a 1.02 in this category. **Chuck Rosciam formula actually takes the catcher’s independent fielding percentage (IPO), but for simplification, I used the regular fielding percentage. My apologies to Chuck.
  • Good Arm– As you can guess this measures the catcher’s ability to throw out those nasty base-stealing thieves. Molina was successful throwing out these culprits almost 41% of the time compared to the league average of 29%. This gives him a rating in this department of 1.40 well above a rating of 1.00 which would be right at the average.
  • Ball Handling– To be clear, this measures the catcher’s ability to record an out on bunt plays, not anything more risqué. As you would imagine, Molina was right there with the best of them at 86% of the time getting the out on a bunt against the league average of 87%. Slightly lower than the average, but still good which gives him a rating of .99.
  • Heads up plays– This measures the catcher’s ability to make heads up plays such as being quick to react and reducing the amount of passed balls or making double plays. The number of passed balls and double plays by the catcher are weighted against the league. Molina scored an 8.27 in effective game play.
  • Game Calling– This measures the catcher’s ERA against the other catcher’s on his team. When Molina was catching, pitchers produced an excellent 3.48 ERA. When he wasn’t behind the plate, the Cardinal pitchers’ ERA evaluated by almost a full run to 4.47 when any other catcher was calling the pitches. If we divide the other catchers’ ERA into Molina’s, he scores a 1.28 where once again 1.00 would be the average.

The finally step to get a raw score for Molina is to multiple the results together for each of the steps (i.e. stamina score * good glove score * good arm score etc.). Molina’s net result would be 85.86. An outstanding score!

Which brings us to the Mets. You probably have a queasy feeling in your stomach right about now and might feel the need to grab a couple of antacids. I’ll wait while you get some………………………………………………………………….. still waiting ……………………………..OK?

Let’s look at how the prospective Mets catchers did when using this same rating system. Once again will throw Barajas into this mix. The table below doesn’t break down each catcher’s individual percentage in the category but rather just gives the rating of each category and finally the raw score.

Catcher

Stamina

Good Glove

Good Arm

Ball Handling

Heads Up

Game Calling

Score

Santos

3.32

1.01

1.03

1.01

7.35

1.00

25.64

Blanco

2.42

1.07

1.38

0.57

11.02

0.93

20.88

Thole

0.62

0.99

1.15

-

2.31

1.09

1.78

Coste

0.83

1.07

0.64

0.57

1.84

0.87

0.52

Barajas

4.65

0.99

1.30

0.94

8.35

1.13

53.08

Stamina is obviously heavily influenced by playing time and Barajas is the only catcher on the list above that had consistent playing time in 2009. The rest of the catchers were essentially no more than back-ups. The majority of the catchers had better than average throwing arms with the exception of Coste who also calls a poor game calling along with Blanco. While Thole appears to be a promising prospect, he really has too little experience to really get a true measure on his defensive skills.

With whom the Mets currently have on their roster it would seem that Santos and Blanco would be the best choices from a defensive standpoint but both were unimpressive offensively. Santos batted a mediocre .260 with a .298 wOBA, while Blanco’s average was less at .235, with a slightly better wOBA at .310. Neither should be expected to offer much offensive punch, and defensively it’s pretty much a coin flip as both don’t come anywhere close to a catcher the caliber of Molina. Interestingly, Barajas would seem to be the better choice from a defensive standpoint as he rated a very respectable 53.08 with an above average arm and solid game calling skills which one would think would be of prime importance considering the Mets pitching woes last season. With the Rangers also listed as one of Barajas’ potential destinations, the Mets should push a little harder to ensure they are able to secure his services. It’s true they will be getting nothing more than a career .240 hitter who has some decent power, but for $1M-$1.5M for the year, he may the right choice to split time with Santos and provide the experience and defense the Mets need. After all beggars can’t choosers and in this scenario between the Mets and Barajas, it’s difficult to know who is the beggar and who is the chooser.


A Couple of Reasons for Hope?

Today’s game offered Mets fans a couple glimmers of hope for next year.

First, John Maine started the game and threw about 92 MPH on the top end. That’s right in line with his best fastball velocity, so that has to be considered good news. He was on a 60-70 pitch pitch count, and ended the third inning with 57 pitches. There was no reason to send him back out there. Though he was saddled with the loss, he struck out three, walked only one, and gave up one run in a promising start.

If Maine can come back and give the Mets the number two starter that he seemed to be, the top end of the rotation will be stabilized next year. The team might have too many #5s and now #3s and #4s, but they also have almost $30 million coming off the books next year. The right pitcher might become a bargain and slide in ahead of Jonathan Niese and bump one of Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez from the rotation. Yes, I still think one of those guys should pitch in the pen if they aren’t going to make any progress as pitchers.

Another good sign was that Josh Thole continued his impressive debut. We’ve chronicled his lack of power here, but if he can provide a solid batting average, he can help the bottom of the Mets lineup next year. So far, Thole is eight for his first 18, with a 4-for-4 performance today against the Phillies. Of course, all but one of his hits have been singles, but beggars can’t be choosers. Thole almost came for free with a 13th-round draft pick, so if he turns into a major league regular the team will count it as a win.

The last is not an unmitigated success story, but there’s a possible major league reliever in Tobi Stoner. At the very least, he owns a major league name that caught some eyes today. My favorite Stoner tweet today was from @raschatz : “because it’s TOO easy: “Mets Stoner gets wasted by Francisco and Victorino HRs” #Phillies lead 4-0 in 5th.”

Stoner doesn’t have great minor league credentials – his strikeout rate never was great (it peaked last year at 7.4 K/9) and it dipped this year (to 5.4 K/9). On the other hand, he has above-average control (2.6 BB/9 career in the minors), he doesn’t give up line drives (14.5% career) or home runs (0.6 a game).

At 24 and no longer making big strides in the minor leagues, Stoner should be in the major league bullpen if he can show something this September. Today, he had some good (36 of 55 pitches were strikes, three strikeouts in three innings) and some bad (the home runs to Ben Francisco and Shane Victorino). He can be forgiven for some of the bad, since he was pitching in a band box today, but he needs to show that home runs won’t be a problem for him if he’s to be trusted with a major league roster spot.


The Mets call up Josh Thole

The Mets made what might be their biggest September moves today. First, they cleared Carlos Beltran for his rehab assignment and said he won’t be running with a brace. That’s exciting. They didn’t say anything about his bruise being completely gone. That’s less exciting. We’ll see in the coming days what brand of Beltran is back on his feet again.

The other move may have as many long-term ramifications. The team called up catcher Josh Thole, and it seems like he will have September to show the team if he can be a part of the 2010 plan. With so little to be excited about, Mets fans are drawn to the young backstop. Can he augment a failing lineup and give them a little offense (which would be a little more than they are getting from the current Brian Schneider / Omir Santos pairing)?

First, the good news. The minor league pitchers all swear that he’s a great game caller and can handle himself behind the plate. In the absence of good defensive stats for catchers, we may have to take their word on it. He certainly isn’t bringing the heat – he’s only thrown out 26% of possible base stealers. If he can bring something to the plate on offense, though, these things will be secondary.

The good news with his offense is that he can seemingly hit for average. His .291 career minor league batting average belies the fact that he’s hit over .300 for his last 800 plate appearances, all above single-A. He’s had an OBP over .382 in those two years, too. The key to his success seems to be a discerning eye at the plate – he’s walked more than he’s struck out over his entire minor league career. A walk rate over 10% and a strikeout rate under 10% qualifies as great news for the 22-year-old.

Unfortunately, it’s not all good news. His line drive rate is actually terrible – he hasn’t topped 14% at any level, and the worst major league players over the past two years came in around 13%. He’s not spraying the ball around the field on frozen ropes – and that has to be part of his power problems as well.

He’s only had eight home runs in 1500+ plate appearances in the minor leagues, and his slugging percentage only recently crossed the .420 threshold into respectability. It’s hard to find a similar catcher prospect to compare him to. Even light-weight, high-walk guys like Kurt Suzuki and John Baker had higher line drive percentages and more power in the minors.

The really bad news may be that Dioner Navarro is the best comp from a statistical standpoint. He had a walk rate over 10%, a low strikeout rate, and a slugging percentage around .400. That’s unfortunate when you look at Navarro’s major league line (.254/.313/.367).

This next year is huge for Thole. If he can continue the steps forward, he can break the comparison to Navarro. When Navarro took on AA for a second time, he took a huge step backward and was traded out of the New York Yankee organization. What will Thole do with September and 2010?


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 321 other followers