Tag Archives: Mike Jacobs

Mets Take Passive Approach at Trade Deadline

omar-handsIt was an uneventful weekend for the Mets in many respects. They lost two of three games to the “lowly” Arizona Diamondbacks. A team, as my GBB partner Adam Rossi pointed out, had only won 13 road games all year prior to their visit to CitiField. The other non-event was the coming and going of the trade deadline with the Mets taking the position of neither buyer nor seller, but as a mere bystander.

They did manage to offload Mike Jacobs to the Blue Jays for the infamous “Player to be Named Later” As long as that unnamed player has all of their limbs, that will be one transaction that will be favorable for the Mets. And rumor has it that they did their best to convince other teams that Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo could compete with sliced bread as the next best thing, but alas, to no avail.

But did we really expect some thirteenth hour blockbuster trade to transpire? Realistically, that just wasn’t in the cards. The Mets have been playing such uneven baseball that it should be no surprise that their record is almost a perfectly even .500. The team is much further away from contending with the Braves or the Phillies than one big bat or one big pitcher. I actually applaud Mets’ management for not putting on the pretense of being a “buyer” this season. Whether money was a factor and the team was unable to increase payroll or the team recognized its shortcoming and didn’t want to depart with what few legitimate prospects they have, it was a prudent move.

They also chose not to play the part of the “seller”. It would have been a bold move to trade some of the key, cornerstone players that are fan favorites. For example, what if the Mets had opted to trade Jose Reyes? Sure, Met fans would miss chanting “Jose—Jose—Jose” at home games. They would miss his energy, solid defense and speed. But he is a consummate injury risk and he could have gotten a couple of good prospects in return. Could the Mets have pulled of a trade with, say, Tampa Bay? Trading Reyes for pitcher Wade Davis and minor leaguer Tim Beckham? Maybe, maybe not. Initially, a trade like that would have been an unpopular move for the fan faithful. But a trade like that that might have been a strong move to revamping the Mets with solid, young players of the future. After all, let’s face it, what’s in place right now, isn’t getting the job done.

But again, I don’t fault the Mets for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal similar to that. That type of a deal would have been an outward confession to the Met fans that they don’t feel that they have the players to win and would have indicated that the team is in a rebuilding mode. Such a position is unpopular in a city that demands a winner and has high expectations to have a team with high profile players. That would have been a trade that could potentially alienate even the most loyal of fans.

But what I do fault the Mets for is being in a position that they can be neither “seller” nor “buyer” and the end result was decided to do absolutely nothing. Whether this unfortunate position is due to limited payroll and bad signings (pointing a finger at Perez and Castillo), an under developed farm system or concern about team image and perception, the Mets took the most passive and complacent approach. Could they have not come up with something to at least show the loyal fan base that they care? Some initiative to show some forward movement rather than a team that seems so frightened by its own shadow that it is paralyzed by indecisiveness?

So the end result is the Mets simply don’t know whether to buy or sell. They don’t know if they are coming or going. For every win, there is a loss and the bottom line is that they look like an organization that continues to chase its own tail. They seem forever to remain in limbo and Met faithful will continue to suffer in purgatory.

How frustrating it is to be a Met fan!


Omar's Tough Decisions

omar-minaya-shrugIt’s early in the season but already Omar Minaya is in a position where he needs to make some tough decisions. But he hasn’t really been the poster boy for the ‘Good Decision Making Club” as this off season proved with his lackadaisical negotiation tactics with Bengie Molina and Joel Pineiro. This indecision extended into spring training when Daniel Murphy went down with a knee injury that was projected to keep him out of the lineup up to six weeks. Minaya made the curious decision to keep Mike Jacobs on the roster rather than the hot hitting first baseman of the future Ike Davis. It was a decision that made thousands of Mets fans collectively scream “Why?!?”

If Daniel Murphy had been healthy, Davis would certainly have benefited from more time at Triple A. The Mets feel some level of commitment to Murphy at first base and Davis is still raw, improving on his talents and as this blog has already mentioned, expectations need to be tempered. But with a choice of Fernando Tatis or Jacobs, it seemed like an excellent opportunity for Davis to take over at first base. Which bears the question: did that much change 12 games into the season that made Davis unworthy of an opening day roster spot but worthy of one now? Did Davis really improve that much over the course of 2 weeks? Did Minaya really think that Jacobs was going to be the answer when so many baseball analyst and Met fans around the country knew otherwise? Under the circumstances with Murphy injured, there was no reason not to roll the dice with Davis.

But a larger decision is looming ahead for Minaya: what to do with John Maine? I wrote last week about how Maine has lost himself; he is no longer the pitcher he was when he first came to the Mets. Right now, he appears to be damaged goods, both physically and mentally. Relatively speaking, Maine had a better performance on Sunday against the Cardinals than his previous outings. He gave up 3 earned runs in 5 innings but labored to get that far into the game throwing 115 pitches. To his credit, he did change his approach throwing 73% fastballs and 21.7% change ups. This was a departure from the outing before when he was rocked by the Rockies. In that game, Maine threw 48% fastballs, 36% sliders and the change up 16% of the time.

But the problem with primarily throwing fastballs is that Maine doesn’t have the velocity anymore to throw the ball past the hitter. Only once did a batter swing and miss his fastball on Sunday. Take a look at this very reveling chart from BrooksBaseball.net that graphs Maine’s velocity pitch by pitch through the course of his performance on Sunday.

chart

The spikes hitting the top of the chart would presumably be Maine’s fastball. The downward trend from the start of the game when he was hitting close to 92 mph compared to after 20 pitches is evident. From that point on his fastball was never able to reach the 90 mph level on any consistent basis. Because of this lack of velocity, Maine has a susceptibility to high pitch counts because he has to somehow craft his approach to batters using hittable fastballs and then work his change up into the pitch sequence to throw the batters timing off. Because of the lack of velocity on the fastball, the disparity of speed between Maine’s change up and his fastball is less, so the hitters don’t have to make as much of a timing adjustment between the two pitches. Good hitters will be able to foul off an 88 mph fastball all day long until eventually they find a pitch they can drive, so Maine’s pitch count will always be an issue.

Maine will probably make his next start mostly due to the fact that there aren’t any better options at this point. His modest improvement on Sunday, arguably earned him another opportunity. And yes, there are a lot of reasons to root for Maine. You can tell he wants the ball. You can tell he wants to compete. But there’s a difference between desire and actual results.

Which brings us back to Minaya. It would be one thing to send Maine out there start after start if his stuff was good and he was just throwing that one bad pitch or if there was even a glimmer that he was improving. But this isn’t happening and probably won’t. Minaya needs to realize the state of Maine. Minaya needs to stop making decisions based upon potential but rather make decisions based upon facts. In this case, the decision to remove Maine from the rotation is inevitable and Minaya needs to act upon that. The more he delays, procrastinates and looks at a player’s potential rather than his results, the more it will negatively impact the Mets and put Jerry Manuel and his own position in jeopardy.

Tough decisions are ahead. It’s time for Minaya to make them.


What Should Have Been

Tonight’s starting lineup looks like this:

  1. CF Angel Pagan
  2. 2B Luis Castillo
  3. 3B David Wright
  4. LF Jason Bay
  5. RF Jeff Francoeur
  6. 1B Fernando Tatis
  7. C Rod Barajas
  8. SS Ruben Tejada
  9. SP Jon Niese

Am I wrong in thinking this should have been the opening day lineup? Why did this team send down Chris Carter? Why are they hitting Mike Jacobs fourth? Why are they playing Alex Cora over a young and coming shortstop in Ruben Tejada?

These all represent different fallacies.

1) Veterans are more preferable to rookies. Why would this be the case? Players peak around 30 years old. Why would you pick a guy that will be worse than they were last year over a guy that is more likely to be better? Cora is who he is. Why not see who Tejada is will Reyes is out? Can he be any worse than a scratch defender with little offensive game? I think this fallacy may even be in play when it comes to the decision to play Gary Mathews, Jr over Angel Pagan. Pagan has been better, more recently, so why Sarge?

2) Lineup positions have more to do with athletic dimensions and handedness than actual offensive capabalities. Why would you put an inferior hitter second in the lineup just because he’s fast? Would you put Carlos Gomez and his sub-.300 OBP in the second spot in the lineup just because he’s fast? That’s ridiculous. Of course, with Luis Castillo, he still gets on base so it’s not as bad. But the Jacobs decision was terrible and probably has something to do with ‘slugging ability’ and the fact that’s he’s left-handed. Jason Bay has a .934 career OPS against lefties, .884 against righties. Jacobs can’t even sniff those numbers. WHO CARES IF BAY SEES A LEFT HANDER BECAUSE HE’S HITTING BEHIND DAVID WRIGHT?!!!!!

These two fallacies are often shown around baseball for sure. But combine this poor lineup and roster management from Jerry Manuel with the terrible media management from Omar Minaya, and you’re starting to see one of the worst manager/GM tandems in the business.

If you read GBB, you know we try to stay positive. It’s an early season. These changes may only cost the Mets a win or two. But these are just forehead-smacking decisions and that game or two might be the difference between playoffs and a long offseason. If they miss out on the wild card  by less that five games, both the GM and the manager deserved to be fired. You couldn’t say it any plainer than that.


Another Look at Opening Day

Mondays can be tough. It’s the start of the work week and there’s a tendency to expect the worst and hope for the best. For Met fans, that perspective is engrained in our very being. And so, it was with this cautious attitude of optimism mixed with fatalism that we approached the Mets opening day game against the Florida Marlins. Like a bad meal that turns out to be very satisfying or blind date to meet for coffee that turns out to be a pretty good time, the Mets victory on Monday provided some promise that they could compete in the early part of the season with primary players on the disabled list.

As Matt already touched on, it was hard to find too much fault in the Mets’ performance yesterday save some of the questionable choices with regards to the lineup. But when all was said and done, it was a day to savor, so let’s briefly revisit some of the positives.

Johan Santana was crisp and mostly efficient throwing 103 pitches through 6 innings. He got the big outs when he needed them and schooled Cameron Maybin three times in the art of the change up. Like manna from heaven, David Wright ran a Josh Johnson pitch down the right field line and out of the ballpark, providing some proof that 2009 is in the past and more baseballs will be finding the seats off of Mr. Wright’s bat this season.

Against one of the league’s toughest pitchers in Johnson, the Mets displayed a tremendous amount of patience, forcing Johnson to throw 99 pitches through 5 frames. They were able to work out 4 walks against him. In fact, even Jeff Francoeur managed to work out a base on balls. Whether or not this was the intended game plan to work up the pitch count on Johnson, it was successful and the Mets were able to open the game  up from that point.

Some of the biggest contributions of the day came from the new faces in the lineup. Jason Bay, Gary Matthews Jr. and Rod Barajas were all central figures in ensuring the Mets victory. All three players had two hits each. Matthews not only contributed with his bat but also excelled in the field, tracking down balls that swirled in the wind and besting his counterpart on the opponent’s side. Yes, Matthews’ insertion in the lineup over Angel Pagan was a bit of a head-scratcher at the start of day, but Jerry Manuel’s gut feeling paid dividends.

While Matthews’ addition to the lineup was a success, the same cannot be said for Mike Jacobs. Jacobs, who has become this blogs favorite whipping boy (and rightfully so), went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts. Both Eno and Matt questioned the logic of Jacobs in the cleanup spot and with good reason. While I don’t want to sound redundant or keep beating the same drum over and over again, I will. I’ll happily jump on this bandwagon with them and take my turn holding the reins. They are 100% correct in their assessment that batting Jacobs in front of Bay would take at-bats away from Bay. Wouldn’t it be more prudent to have Bay driving in the runs? But to have Jacobs bat 4th, a guy who makes contact only 62% of the time, will probably end up killing more rallies then keeping them alive. A strikeout can be a momentum killer and if killing momentum were a crime, Jacobs would be at the top of “The Most Wanted” list. Also, let’s not forget that Bay in the cleanup spot would provide better protection for Wright. Jacobs in that spot would allow pitchers to pitch around Wright to get to him. And what pitcher wouldn’t take their chances with Jacobs before Wright in any key situation? Forget about having two right-handed hitters in a row. So what? It was very evident in the opening game, that Jacobs is and will be a black hole in the lineup, especially in the clean up role. Hopefully, this was evident to Manuel as well.

But enough of the negative. The Mets started off their 2010 season on the right foot. It was a game the Mets needed to win especially with their ace on the mound. The Mets needed to exorcise some of the awful memories of last season and turn the page. If not for their sake, at least for the sake of the fans. They pitched well, hit well, fielding well and showed solid patience at the plate. They need to remember all the things they did well yesterday and carry that forward, because the next game their ace won’t be on the mound. They will have to prove to themselves that they can succeed without him. So with one win in the books, the Mets can feel good about what they achieved yesterday. Yes, it was a good day. And hopefully after tomorrow’s game, we will all still be smiling.


Mets Start Off With a Bang

Wow, that was somewhat unexpected, no?  Eno touched on the horrid lineup the Mets were going to throw out there for opening day, and even if you didn’t watch the game, you can take a quick glance at the box score to see that the two glaring questions with the lineup have some merit.  I’d like to continue the lineup conversation but I’ll try to keep a positive tone going forward because we can’t ask for much more than what the Mets gave us today, as they went on to beat the Florida Marlins 7-1.

Alex Cora had a career .270 BABIP and a .291 wOBA heading into the 2010 season.  Needless to say, he should never be batting at the top of the order.  Considering his lack of power and table-setting skills, he should be batting 8th, or maybe even 9th if Santana is on the mound.  The other major beef many fans had was Mike Jacobs batting cleanup.  Jacobs and Cora combined went 0 for 8 with 1 RBI, leaving 5 men on base.  Cora saw 18 pitches at the leadoff spot in 5 plate appearances and only got on once via a HBP.  Jacobs struck out twice and only saw 12 pitches in 4 plate appearances.  I’m not going to go crazy on one game, but they did pretty much what was expected of them based on their historical tendencies.

David Wright’s first inning homerun did wonders for the Mets’ energy as he filled in admirably as the igniter during Jose Reyes’ absence.  Luis Castillo, David Wright, & Jason Bay saw a combined 61 pitches in 13 plate appearances.  Johan Santana, Fernando Nieve, and Francisco Rodriguez all pitched very well as the Florida lineup did practically nothing.  Angel Pagan had a nice pinch hit RBI single in the sixth and then stole second and later scored.

It’ll be interesting to see what Jerry will do with the lineup vs RHP Ricky Nolasco on Wednesday.  We would all love to see Ruben Tejada get a look while he’s still up and I think it’s safe to say that Alex Cora’s vesting option will be avoided, as management clearly thinks highly of Tejada.  I have a feeling we will see Manuel use Jacobs again in the cleanup spot to avoid using two right-handed hitters back to back, especially since the Marlins bullpen only has one LHP in it.  There will be plenty of at bats all season for Pagan, so I wouldn’t mind seeing Matthews, Jr. rewarded for a fine first game as a Met.

You can’t start the year off much better than this, and I’ll try to keep a cool head on lineup decisions until Reyes is back, but there really is no excuse for batting Cora first or Jacobs fourth.  We’ll see what happens once Pagan is in the lineup.  I hope everyone enjoyed the game today and it looks like there is plenty to look forward to – just do yourselves a favor and avoid watching the Braves and Phillies.


Opening Day Lineup and Team

It looks like we have the opening day lineup and the final construction of the 25-man roster. From Jon Heyman, the lineup:

1. SS Alex Cora
2. 2B Luis Castillo
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Mike Jacobs
5. LF Jason Bay
6. CF Gary Matthews, JR.
7. RF Jeff Francoeur
8. C Rod Barajas
9. SP Johan Santana

That’s pretty upsetting. Not only is Mike Jacobs making the team, he’s batting in the cleanup spot ahead of Jason Bay. Does that make sense to anyone? I’m sure this is some stupid R/L/R handed thing, but you can set this lineup differently so that Jason Bay gets more plate appearances than Mike Jacobs. It’s possible. If this is the lineup against lefties (Jacobs has a .643 OPS vs lefties), Mets management needs to be fired. The day after.

Let’s tackle the idiocy of Gary Matthews Jr over Angel Pagan some other time. It’s just too depressing.

The bench should be Fernando Tatis, Angel Pagan, Ruben Tejada, Henry Blanco and maybe Chris Carter until Daniel Murphy comes back. I’m happy Tejada made the team and I hope they keep him up when people return from injury. I’d rather have him than Alex Cora, whose defense is slipping and whose offense never really existed.

The pitching looks to lineup like this:

1. Johan Santana
2. Jonathon Niese
3. John Maine
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Oliver Perez

I love the fact that Jon Niese is pitching the second game, if only if it’s a symbolic gesture. Niese deserves a little atta-boy and a positive push in the right direction. Let’s hope he responds better than Mike Pelfrey did a similar moment last year.

The bullpen is Francisco Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Hisanori Takahashi, Ryota Igarashi, and Jenrry Mejia. I personally think Takahashi will take a spot in the rotation (Oliver Perez, I’m looking in your direction), but this bullpen looks pretty good, and with the upside Mejia provides, could be dominant if their good years line up this season. As long as the long-term plan is still to make Mejia a starter, I think Mets fans should be happy with this bullpen.

All in all, the team looks like it will have a decent bullpen, a shaky back end of a rotation, and a poor offense. They really need to get lucky with someone at first base, or Ike Davis will be needed a little earlier than they’d hope. Maybe we’ll just start banging the Ike Davis drum so that he replaces Jacobs. Almost anyone would be better than Jacobs.


Why Jacobs?

MikeJAcobsIt’s beginning to look like Mike Jacobs will at least be the interim first baseman while Daniel Murphy nurses his sprained MCL. This is an incredibly inane move by Omar Minaya. Jacobs is not above average in any facet of the game, and is incredibly below-average in most. He’s been below replacement for two straight years, and hasn’t ever put forward a season of even a win and a half over replacement. Can it be said any plainer? As I said on twitter the other day when Carson Cistulli from FanGraphs asked me what I thought about Jacobs, “Jacobs = teh worsst.”

Let’s find a couple other ways to say this, though. The average first baseman put up a .276/.361/.481 line last year. Jacobs has never put up that line in a full season in his career. Jacobs has never once been as good as the average first baseman was in 2009.

How about the component stats? Well, he hasn’t walked at an average rate in three years, and he’s struck out more than the average hitter in that stretch too. His best walk rate (8.6% last year) came close to the average (8.9% last year), but it was also the second-best full season walk rate of his career. His strikeout percentage has move from about 4% worse than average to 10% worse than average. His isolated slugging percentage (.222) looks above-average when compared to all players in baseball (average is usually around .155), but it’s only just barely above average for first basemen (.202 ISO last year).

For those of you clinging to that one (barely) above-average stat, there are plenty of ‘intangible’ ways that Jacobs gives those runs back. For his career, he has been demonstrably poor with the glove. He has a -9.0 career UZR/150, meaning that over the course of a season he gives away nine runs and almost a full win with his glove. Even last year, when the UZR numbers looked okay (and UZR usually takes about three seasons of data to stabilize), he was rated the worst fielder on the Royals by the Fans Scouting Report on The Book (a site run by baseball researcher Tom Tango). To make matters worse, the Royals were the third-worst fielding team in baseball. Incredibly, if you put Jacobs’ -9 UZR/150 on the leaderboards, he would have been the worst-fielding first baseman over the last two years. Jacobs is one of the worst defenders in the league.

It’s worth mentioning that he also gives runs back on the basebaths. His career speed score (2.7) is almost half the average (5.0), meaning that his combination of steals, doubles, triples and infield hits ranked him among the worst in that category, somewhere around Nick Johnson. Talk about running in molasses.*

Add it all up with his age (29), it seems pretty clear that Jacobs is a terrible option even as an interim first baseman. Why not take Chris Carter and Fernando Tatis north? That’s who we’re banging the drums for.

* We writers engage in snark because it hurts to see our team make poor decisions. While I don’t think Jacobs should ever again don the first base mitt for the Mets in a regular season game, I don’t wish him ill, and hope he never reads this. It’s our duty to critique the team, and it’s his duty to do his best. We all have our jobs to do.


Chris Carter Making Things Difficult

Chris_CarterPawtucket_Red_SoxFirst off, let’s smile a little. Jose Reyes is back on the playing field and says he’s ready to go. Ahhh…

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

You may have noticed that Chris Carter is the hottest hitter in Mets camp right now. His .446/.500/1.056 line is not only insane, it’s making it hard for the Mets to break camp without him. He’s hit three homers and two doubles in his 18 at-bats, and his competitors are playing terribly. Fernando Tatis has a .255 OPS (!). Mike Jacobs has a .208 batting average (though, to be fair, an okay .803 OPS). Ike Davis has been sent down. Is it time to take the cheapest option in camp and plug him in as the backup 1B/corner OF? It’s not really easy to see why not, especially given his .306/.380/.510 minor league line and cheap price tag.

Of course, there is one glaring flaw. Carter apparently has bricks for hands. MinorLeagueSplits.com has used TotalZone to rate him as a negative defender at every position in his minor league career, and subjective reports have also been unkind to him. If he gives back as many runs with the glove as he makes with his bat, he’s suddenly a little less exciting, even given his nice numbers in this small spring sample size.

Are the other options any better on defense? Fernando Tatis looks sort of done this spring, but his defense was a plus at three positions last year (1B, 3B, and OF) and he added runs with his glove. A year after going .282/.339/.438 he’s done?

Mike Jacobs, on the other hand, has been declining with the glove (-19.4 runs/150 games by UZR at 1B last year!) and it’s not clear why anyone is rushing to get his bat into the lineup either after last year (.228/.297/.401). He whiffs too often (30.4% last year), doesn’t walk (8.6% last year, 8.9% was league average) and he has bricks for hands. He shouldn’t be on the team. (Or any major league team, probably.)

The choice between Carter and Tatis, however, is a classic one. It’s the declining veteran with a major league contract battling the improving young slugger that is out of options. The wrinkle on the battle is that Tatis is the one that provides versatile defense and the rook is the one that can’t field to save his life. Given the fact that Tatis is 35, would see his defense decline naturally, isn’t a highly-paid veteran, and is struggling this spring, the guess is that Carter will force his way onto the team.

Whether or not his bat can overcome his defense and move him in front of Daniel Murphy on the depth chart is another question. Deride Murphy’s outfield defense as much as you’d like, but his glove is rated as a positive at first base by UZR, TotalZone and the Fan Scouting Report. That’s a trifecta that can’t be ignored. If he can recover his good walk rate from the 2007 (11.9%) and improve his line drive rate, Murphy is still the choice at first base. He won’t give back most of his runs with his glove, at the very least.


Identifying Position Battles for the Mets' 25-man Roster

The business of spring training is the business of locking down the last two-to-three roster spots at its heart. That’s probably not as romantically as it’s been put, but it’s the truth. So, in the parlance of Donald Rumsfeld, let’s list the known knowns going into Spring Training, so that we can figure out the known unknowns and see which players we should watch closely.

C
1B Daniel Murphy
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
SS Jose Reyes
LF Jason Bay
CF Angel PaganFernando_Tatis
RF Jeff Francoeur
Backup C
Backup CI
Backup MI Alex Cora
Backup OF Gary Matthews Jr.

SP Johan Santana
SP John Maine
SP Mike Pelfrey
SP Oliver Perez
SP Jonathon Niese
CL Francisco Rodriguez
RP Pedro Feliciano
RP Ryota Igarashi
RP Sean Green
RP Bobby Parnell
RP
RP/SP

DL Kelvim Escobar
DL Carlos Beltran

+1 BN P/OF

So that doesn’t leave much suspense, does it? I could easily have penciled in the catchers – the early money is on Rod Barajas to be the number 1 and Henry Blanco to back him up, with Blanco maybe getting the nod against lefty starters because of his superior split OPS.  Nelson Figueroa and Fernando Nieve are the favorites for those last two pitcher spots – although they could just sign Figueroa for the minor leagues as they have done the last two years.

Backup corner infield is probably the most interesting battle in camp, so we’ll spend a whole post or ten talking about Mike Jacobs and Fernando Tatis who are battling for that spot. If the 25th man is not a pitcher, the loser of that battle will jump into the fray with Chris Carter, Fernando Martinez, speedster Jason Pridie, and good old Nick Evans. This isn’t a bad group of players to watch and discuss in the coming weeks.

If the 25th man is a pitcher, you’re looking at someone out of the group that’s in camp: lefties Hisanori Takahashi and Jay Marshall and righties Pat Misch, Tobi Stoner, Eddie Kunz make up that group. We’ll keep an eye on this group, because some of the younger guys used to have promise, but it’s not a very scintillating collection of arms. Given all the injuries the Mets’ position players had last year, the bet is that someone like Carter or Tatis takes that final spot. And it’s starting to look like Winter League MVP F-Mart will play every day in AAA to start 2010, isn’t it? Once Beltran returns, three reserve outfielders is a bit much.

Happy spring watching Stoner, Pridie and Jacobs battle for the roster!


The Case FOR Omar Minaya, Cted

We recently started the list of moves that have worked out in Omar Minaya‘s credit. At first, the focus was on single moves that he made this year that seemed to have worked out well. Those were signing Angel Pagan, signing Gary Sheffield, and signing Francisco Rodriguez.

Those three moves, though, are indicative of some larger positive trends on Minaya’s side of the ledger. One thing that Minaya has shown he can do is go get the big star. Whether it was Carlos Beltran or Francisco Rodriguez, Minaya has shown the ability to identify the best player at a crucial position and go the extra mile to recruit that free agent. He’s gone to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico while in this capacity, and he has, in the past, had the power of a big checkbook behind him. He’s won those battles.

Of course, just getting big stars at the right positions is only half the battle. Inevitably, free agents will decline because most players don’t hit the free market until after their peak (age 25-27 by most of the research), but the trick seems to be to find the players that will stay healthy and productive longer. The jury is out on most of Minaya’s acquisitions, but now that Johan Santana is meeting with elbow specialists, the question becomes salient.

K-Rod is on the way down – you can see it in his declining strikeout rates and burgeoning walk rates. Beltran was playing some his best ball recently, before hitting a knee injury that has been rumored to need microfracture surgery. Santana was pitching well without incident, but today his teammates speculated that he will need surgery. Yeah, Minaya can put the dog-and-pony show on to get them in, but has he signed the RIGHT free agents? We’ll see.

The Pagan and Sheffield acquisitions are indicative of his ability to find some value on the scrap heap. Before Pagan, there was Endy Chavez. Before Alex Cora, there was Fernando Tatis. These old veterans have provided high return on low investments. There’s no belittling this skill – it’s an actual, bonafide skill that a general manager should have. Minaya can actually find serviceable veterans to fill holes at low prices.

Another point in Minaya’s favor was the Johan Santana trade itself. None of the prospects he gave up in the deal look as enticing now as when Minaya sent them packing. The jewel of the trade, Carlos Gomez, now looks like he could be a fourth outfielder. Despite his great defense, his ever-impatient ways have made him a one-trick pony on offense (all speed, but you can’t steal first!). Philip Humber went from a first-round draft pick to clearing waivers and unwanted by the league. Deolis Guerra’s strikeout rate took a nose dive in Minnesota until he went under the knife recently.

Is this the case with most of the prospects Minaya has given up? Actually, he’s been very good at not trading prospects that have not ended up being diamonds in the rough. The list of flawed players that were once Minaya’s is long: Mike Jacobs, Jason Phillips, Kris Benson, Jeff Keppinger, Evan MacLane, Victor Diaz, Royce Ring, and Henry Owens have all been worse than advertised for their new teams.

In fact, as the Mets GM, Minaya has only let Heath Bell, Yusmeiro Petit, Matt Lindstrom and Brian Bannister slip from between his fingers. And though these guys have been useful to their new teams, Minaya has had much more value on his side of the ledger (from Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca to Shawn Green and Xavier Nady). Minaya wins his trades, for the most part.

So how do you still have a bad minor league system if you haven”t been trading away your best prospects? Ah, now we are getting back into his faults, and another post for another day.


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