Big couple of days for big Mike Pelfrey. After posting 15 victories in 2010, the Mets rewarded Pelfrey with a hefty raise. Pelfrey, who earned $500,000 last season, will earn $3.9 million in 2011.
But wait, it gets better. Not only will Big Mike be cashing bigger checks, manager Terry Collins has already announced Pelfrey as the opening day Continue reading
July, let’s be real, was miserable. The Mets went 9 and 17 with a -11 run differential. They only allowed 99 runs but could only muster 88 runs themselves. The hitting disappeared. The Mets hit .227/.293/.353 good for a whopping .646 OPS. Their OPS and a 284 wOBA both ranked last in the league. Angel Pagan continued his stud play hitting .337/.402/.594 with a .257 ISO and 7.7 SPD score. They got little production out of second base as the trifecta of talent that is Luis Castillo, Alex Cora, and Ruben Tejada all struggled getting on base. Luis Castillo’s .282 OBP was about 40 points higher than Tejada’s and 80 points higher than Cora’s. There’s no excuse to be starting Cora, even if Castillo is struggling. There’s barely an excuse to even have him on the team. David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Ike Davis all performed well in July, but the struggles continued for Jason Bay. Carlos Beltran walked 14% of the time in July but struggled early with his triple slash. He’s still struggling at the plate but has walked 17% of the time in his past 14 games. Jeff Francoeur maintained his sneaky persona of generating outs more than practically all of baseball, all while capturing the adoration of anti-sabr Met fans. Haters.
The Mets pitching had it’s bright spots in July, though Mike Pelfrey’s regression seemingly masked the other starters’ strides. The Mets are a hittable staff without strong strike out numbers. They’ve been able to limit home runs all year likely due to ground ball tendencies and Citi’s park factor. Mike Pelfrey had a horrific July. His k/9 continued it’s descent and for the month of July was a measly 4.35, but worse was his 5.66 bb/9. Opposing hitters hit .419 off of him. Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, and R.A. Dickey turned in spectacular Julys. Fun fact: Jonathon Niese had a 98% strand rate in July. The Mets had the sixth best FIP in all of baseball in July. Imagine what it could have been if Pelfrey didn’t self destruct.
| .337 | .402 | .594 |
I wrote on Friday that there was no reason the Mets shouldn’t win their weekend series with the Diamondbacks. Well, I forgot about one major reason why they couldn’t (and didn’t): they’re the Mets.
All signs point to this season being over. The Mets are currently tied for third place in the NL East and 6.5 behind Atlanta for first. As tough as that is, they are 7.5 games out of the Wild Card with 5 teams ahead of them and Florida tied. The last time the Mets won two games in a row was June 22-23 vs. Detorit. Now they have to embark on a six game road trip against the Braves and the Phillies in order to save the season, when the last time they won consecutive games on the road was June 11-18 against the Orioles, Indians and Yankees. In fact, that was the only time all season the Mets won two or more games in a row on the road.
A 4-2 roadtrip will do the Mets no good. Even taking two of three from Atlanta still puts them 5.5 games out of first place. Picking up one game in three days when you’re as far out as the Mets are does nothing. They need to go 6-0 or 5-1 at the least, in order to stay in this thing. And that’s a lot to ask considering Atlanta is 34-13 at home, Philly is 34-18 and the Mets are 20-33 on the road.
The good news is the Mets have had success against both teams this season. They’re 5-3 vs. the Braves, outscoring them 20-15, and 4-2 vs. the Phillies while outscoring them 30-22 (everyone remembers the shutout sweep back in May). However, the Phillies did torch the Mets 10-1 and 11-5 back in May. And the last time the Mets played the Braves on July 9-11, Atlanta took two of three in Citi Field.
The Mets also have their work cut out for them with the pitching they will face this week. The series against Atlanta is as follows:
Tonight: Johan Santana vs. Tim Hudson
Tuesday: RA Dickey vs. Derek Lowe
Wednesday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Kris Medlen
When the Mets head to Philadelphia, they will miss Roy Oswalt. They will not miss Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay, however.
Friday: Hisanori Takahashi vs. Joe Blanton
Saturday: Jon Niese vs. Hamels
Sunday: Santana vs. Halladay — if the Mets have a miracle run this week, this matchup will be HUGE.
On paper, it doesn’t look too good this week but like the cliche says: that’s why they play the games.
Let’s Go Mets!
The Mets were swept for the first time since mid-may as they fell to the Diamondbacks late Wednesday night in a 14 inning affair. This sweep has caused a stir among Met fans as the calls for the firing of the manager are as loud as the calls for Omar to make an impact trade. Mike Pelfrey was awful on Monday, but R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese continued their success.
| Pelfrey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 5.51 | 3.46 | 0.55 | 0.324 | 74.8 | 48.6 | 6.5 | 4.01 | 3.87 | 4.37 |
| as of 7/19 | 5.50 | 3.35 | 0.56 | 0.313 | 77.2 | 49.4 | 6.7 | 3.58 | 3.84 | 4.30 |
| career | 5.23 | 3.41 | 0.67 | 0.317 | 71.0 | 49.8 | 7.6 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 4.60 |
Mike Pelfrey had an anomaly of a start as he couldn’t get out of the second inning on Monday. Big Pelf gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks, while only striking out 1. 3 of those 7 hits went for extra bases. Many people have pointed to Pelfrey using his secondary pitches more often and Jerry Manuel would like to see him utilize his fastball. We’ll see if he heeds Manuel’s advice in his next start. Richard went into great detail yesterday of the Pelfrey of late.
| Dickey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 6.15 | 2.51 | 0.57 | 0.302 | 77.4 | 54.3 | 7.2 | 2.73 | 3.41 | 3.78 |
| as of 7/20 | 6.38 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.306 | 77.3 | 55.0 | 6.3 | 2.63 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| career | 5.60 | 3.43 | 1.28 | 0.313 | 70.8 | 45.1 | 12.1 | 5.02 | 4.92 | 4.62 |
R.A. Dickey was strong again and picked up a quality start, despite getting the loss. Dickey threw 117 pitches, 63 for strikes, as he went 7 innings for the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. He continues to be one of the better pitchers on the staff as he is out-xFIPing the rest of thestarters. Fangraphs featured a nice post yesterday on our beloved Dickey.
| Niese | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 7.35 | 2.83 | 1.06 | 0.316 | 78.6 | 49.2 | 11.9 | 3.54 | 4.14 | 3.96 |
| as of 7/21 | 7.17 | 2.89 | 0.84 | 0.318 | 77.2 | 50.0 | 9.6 | 3.44 | 3.88 | 4.00 |
| career | 7.13 | 3.12 | 0.96 | 0.325 | 75.4 | 48.4 | 10.4 | 4.01 | 4.08 | 4.09 |
Jonathon Niese needed 99 pitches to get through 5 innings on Wednesday night, though he struck out 6 and only walked 1. He gave up 3 solo shots on 6 hits but kept his team in the game. It’s fun watching his xFIP go down in a start like this despite making a few mistakes, as his hr/fb% normalized a bit more. Niese’s peripherals look solid and he’s been able to strand runners over 78% of the time. Let’s watch his innings count and pitch count as the year progresses.
| Pelfrey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 5.51 | 3.46 | 0.55 | 0.324 | 74.8 | 48.6 | 6.5 | 4.01 | 3.87 | 4.37 |
| as of 7/19 | 5.50 | 3.35 | 0.56 | 0.313 | 77.2 | 49.4 | 6.7 | 3.58 | 3.84 | 4.30 |
| career | 5.23 | 3.41 | 0.67 | 0.317 | 71.0 | 49.8 | 7.6 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 4.60 |
While things seem to be falling apart in Metsland, the team rolls into the City of Angels to face a team that might actually be in an even worse predicament. Like the Mets, the Dodgers are only 1-6 since the All-Star Break. They’re ownership is going through a bitter divorce settlement that handcuffs them financially and they now have to deal with suspensions to Clayton Kershaw, Joe Torre, and the oh-so-important bnch coach Bob Schaefer.
Meanwhile, the Mets offense seems to still be on vacation. Since the second half, the Mets have been outscored by their opponents 34-15 in seven games. They were outscored by the putrid Diamondbacks alone 20-7. They sport a Herculean team batting average of .192 and an even more impressive .249 OBP and .318 slugging percentage. I just threw up in my mouth a bit.
Still, starting today the team is only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card lead and only 1 game behind the Dodgers.
The pitching matchups for the four-game series are as follows:
Hisanori Takahshi vs. Hiroki Kuroda (tonight)
Johan Santana vs. Vincente Padilla (Friday) — If they lose this game then I give up
Mike Pelfrey vs. James McDonald (Saturday)
RA Dickey vs. Clayton Kershaw (Sunday) — Kershaw was just handed a 5 game suspension, but will appeal and is allowed to play until that’s all settled. Sucks, I know.
As bad as the Mets offense has been, the starting pitching still hasn’t been all that stellar. Yes, Santana and Niese have been solid and RA has been formidable, but then you look at these facts:
- Takahshi hasn’t gone 6 innings since June 18th at Yankee Stadium
- Pelfrey hasn’t gone 5 innings since June 25th vs. Minnesota
- RA hasn’t won since June 23rd vs. Detroit — though, again, that’s not all his fault
Add in the fact that their closer can’t close games, Fernando Nieve is still in the bullpen and Oliver Perez is back — ugh, I just threw up in my mouth again.
Whatever. Go Mets!
Is there anybody else besides me that’s a little concerned about Mike Pelfrey? Just a little? C’mon admit it. Well, if you’re not, maybe you should be. Have you noticed of late that Pelfrey’s outings are starting to look a lot like…dare I say…Oliver Perez’s outings. Ouch.! OK, maybe that was a little mean and unfair, but not completely off base. Let’s look at some of these ugly stats. For those faint of heart, hold onto your loved ones.
Since June 19th, spanning six starts, Pelfrey has a 1-4 record with a 9.11 ERA. Yes, 9.11!! Someone should call for help. He’s pitched 27.2 innings over that time, allowing 13 walks and striking out 11. Opponents are batting .421 against Pelfrey with a 1.082 OPS. Yes, I know. These numbers are an eye sore. So what happened to that guy who just a little over a month ago had a 9-1 record and a 2.39 ERA? What happened to that Mike Pelfrey?
Well, if the answers were so easily known, it would be easy to straighten him out. But if we look at some specific stats such as ground ball rate, contact rate and strike percentages from Fangraphs then we might get a little better idea as to Pelfrey’s woes.
First, we know that Pelfrey is a sinker ball pitcher and he relies very heavily on the ground ball. So his ground ball percentage is going to be very telling since we want to see that percent as high as possible. That would mean that Pelfrey has effective command on his sinker. For the season, Pelfrey has ground ball rate of 48.6%. In the month of May when he was going so well, that rate was up to 53.2%. But over the past 30 days that ground ball rate has dipped down to 43.2%. That’s a pretty steep swing in numbers and punctuates one of the reason Pelfrey’s numbers have ballooned.
Alright, so it appears that the sinker isn’t sinking and it’s getting too much of the plate. Right now his pitches are being hit for line drives rather than the usually ground balls. We see this also reflected in Pelfrey’s contact rate. Let’s face it, Pelfrey is not a power pitcher and is more about contact so his contact rate will typically be on the high side. In May, Pelfrey contact rate was 84.2% but over the past 30 days that rate has risen by more than 3%. This may not seem a significant variance but its enough to indicate that his pitches have been more hittable.
All of this really stems from a loss of command. Pelfrey has not been able to throw his pitches for strikes the way he was able to do at the start of the season. He’s only been hitting the strike zone about 45% of the time during this cold spell. So when he does get a pitch over the plate, it’s been a lollipop and they have been hit for frozen ropes. But the league may also be getting a little wiser too. Many hitters may have figured out about his split-finger fastball and are laying off the pitch where earlier they were swinging at it.
Pelfrey will obviously need to make some adjustments to his pitch selection if the split-finger is to work the way it was. But how do you solve the command issues? Fortunately, that’s not my job and that’s left to far more qualified individuals (at least I hope they are more qualified than me).
With the Mets uninspired play leading into and out of the All-Break, the team needs to bounce back…and quickly. Atlanta continues to play solid ball but Philadelphia is struggling. The Phillies’ starting pitching is thin (for now–hmmm …Roy Oswalt?), the bullpen is suspect and Chase Utley is out until September. The Mets are in a position to make a run at the division and/or the Wild Card but they can ill afford to lose too much ground to Atlanta. In order for that to happen, Pelfrey will need to make the necessary adjustments to get back on track. He will probably be just fine going forward as he is no where nearly as awful as he has been pitching recently, but will it be too late? Will the Mets fall too far behind in the playoff races to be relevant? Management really needs to acquire another arm at the trade deadline. Pitching wins divisions and the Mets are just too inconsistent and just too thin to make a legitimate run at a playoff spot. The fork in the road is rapidly approaching. Which path will the Mets go down?
Though the Mets were only able to take 1 game from the Giants, the starters were not the ones to blame. Hisanori Takahashi was beat up as he made a spot start for Mike Pelfrey, but the hitting was missing in action as they only scored 7 runs in 4 games. Look for the Mets bats to rebound against the Diamondbacks as the starting pitching continues to impress.
| Dickey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 6.38 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.306 | 77.3 | 55.0 | 6.3 | 2.63 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| as of 7/15 | 6.65 | 2.63 | 0.55 | 0.314 | 76.8 | 55.0 | 6.9 | 2.77 | 3.31 | 3.73 |
| career | 5.63 | 3.44 | 1.28 | 0.314 | 70.7 | 45.0 | 12.0 | 5.03 | 4.92 | 4.63 |
R.A. Dickey was strong on Thursday, lasting 7 innings while giving up 1 run on only 5 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 3 and induced 9 groundouts to 6 flyouts. He’s seeing the most success of his career thanks to his nice mix of walk prevention and a 55% groundball rate. He’s been a bit lucky on home runs, but nothing too troublesome for a starter who is pitching well and getting a fair share of his starts at Citi Field. Add in a respectable 6.38 k/9 and a faster knuckleball and you have what should be a mainstay in this rotation for the rest of the season. Dickey has been worth 1.6 WAR so far in 11 starts.
| Niese | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 7.17 | 2.89 | 0.84 | 0.318 | 77.2 | 50.0 | 9.6 | 3.44 | 3.88 | 4.00 |
| as of 7/16 | 7.33 | 2.81 | 0.90 | 0.321 | 76.3 | 49.5 | 10.2 | 3.61 | 3.95 | 3.98 |
| career | 7.00 | 3.17 | 0.79 | 0.327 | 74.4 | 48.9 | 8.8 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 4.12 |
Jonathon Niese is due for a lot more recognition as the season progresses. He put together another great outing on Friday, going 7 innings giving up 1 run on 6 hits. He did walk 3 and only struck out 4, but continues to be a groundball out machine. Niese doesn’t have a large enough sample to make too many conclusions, but he looks like a pitcher who is going to get outs from balls in play and limit walks enough to be successful. A k/9 above 7 is also promising and as his secondary pitches develop there’s no reason to think he can’t rack up the strikeouts. Niese was left off a lot of prospect lists and in his first full season he’s doing his best to change (at least some) of the perception of recent Met prospects. Every team covets a 23 year old lefty who can strike guys out, limit walks, and induce ground balls 50% of the time.
| Takahashi | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
| career | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
Mike Pelfrey was scratched from his start on Saturday due to a stiff neck and was replaced by Hisanori Takahashi who got tagged for 6 runs on 7 hits including 2 home runs in 2.2 innings of work. Takahashi has been hurt recently by a both homeruns and being too hittable. His leash is probably short, especially with Oliver Perez coming back to the lineup despite Perez being pegged as a $12 million dollar LOOGY.
| Santana | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 5.87 | 2.80 | 0.53 | 0.275 | 78.3 | 34.8 | 4.3 | 2.87 | 3.54 | 4.65 |
| as of 7/18 | 5.88 | 2.91 | 0.57 | 0.272 | 77.6 | 34.3 | 4.5 | 2.98 | 3.62 | 4.69 |
| career | 8.88 | 2.51 | 0.95 | 0.286 | 77.4 | 37.6 | 9.0 | 3.10 | 3.39 | 3.48 |
Johan Santana looked great despite the Met relievers blowing the win for him again. Santana went 8 innings, yielding 1 run on 8 hits while only walking 1. He struck out 5 and induced 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts. He’s been able to maintain success with a k/9 below 6.0 and has limited homeruns significantly this year. Santana’s xFIP isn’t a great metric to evaluate him, considering he’s limited home runs below the league average the past few years and with the help of Citi Field he should be able to maintain a lower hr/fb% than the rest of the league and a lower rate than his career 9.0 hr/fb%. Santana’s continued success will be pivotal to the Mets chance at a playoff birth.
| Takahashi | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
| career | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
Cheer up Mets fans, LeBron might not be coming to New York but the Braves are!
Before MLB takes a mini-vacation for the All-Star celebrations, the Mets and Braves will battle in Citi Field with implications that bring back memories of the Mike Piazza days. Indeed it feels like this season may be bringing back the rivalry from the late 90′s/early 2000′s and really, can anyone complain? — Unless, of course, the Mets miss the playoffs.
This series could be a huge one for the Mets. As of now, New York leads in the NL Wild Card race. If they sweep this weekend, they will be tied for first place heading into the All-Star break which I think all of us would have signed up for at the start of the season. If they get swept, there’s a possibility they could be in third place.
The good news is, like the Mets, Atlanta has found much of their success at Turner Field where they are 30-10 so the Mets hold a distinct home-field advantage for this series. We all know by now Citi Field has helped the pitching staff, but the Mets sport some pretty impressive offensive numbers at home as well. Met hitters are batting .271 with a .343 OBP, .763 OPS, 202 runs, 75 doubles, and 17 triples at Citi.
The pitching matchups are as follows: Tommy Hanson vs. RA Dickey tonight, Tim Hudson vs. Mike Pelfrey Saturday and Derek Lowe vs. Johan Santana on Sunday.
On the surface, it looks like Tommy Hanson is struggling in his sophomore campaign. But don’t let his 4.19 ERA fool you; his 3.37 FIP and 9.12 K/9 say that he’s faring much better than you think. The problem for Hanson has been the walks, as he averages 3.07 base-on-balls per 9 innings. It should be an interesting matchup to see the young flamethrower face off against the revitalized knuckleballer, much like last weekend with Strasburg.
Mike Pelfrey takes the mound Saturday, which lately has not been a good thing. Many fans have been referring to Pelfrey as an All-Star snub, but I’m not one of them. He has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and failed to get out of the 5th inning in his last two starts. The problem may lie in the fact that Big Pelf has lost the ability to get outs on the ground as of late. Going back to his start against the Padres on June 8, Pelfrey has gotten 76 fly ball outs while getting 65 outs via the ground ball, 11 less. Also, going back to that same date, Pelfrey has allowed more fly ball outs than ground ball outs in every game except June 30 in Puerto Rico, when he got 11 outs on the ground and 11 in the air. This is not good news for a pitcher who has been referred to as a ground ball pitcher since the day he was drafted.
As for Pelfrey’s counterpart on Saturday, Tim Hudson has had practically the opposite season of Tommy Hanson. His 2.44 and 8-4 record suggest he’s having a great season, but his 4.29 FIP and 4.16 xFIP say he’s been getting help from his defense. Hudson’s K/9 is also only at 4.57, down from his career mark of 6.04. Much of Timmy’s success this season has come from a .234 BABIP, so don’t be surprised if we see a second half regression from him.
On the flip side, don’t be surprised if we see a Johan Santana resurgance in the second half. He is well documented as an extraordinary second half pitcher as it is, and his last two starts suggest that may still be the case. The biggest thing to be highly encouraged by in Santana’s last two starts are the strikeouts, as he’s K’d 12 batters in 16 innings.
There’s a lot at stake here for a series in July and Citi field will definitely be rocking. Let’s go Mets!
The Mets offense seemingly exploded in June as David Wright mashed to the tune of .404/.447/.683; .475 wOBA. Jose Reyes finally found his stride, hitting .314/.360/.533; .397 wOBA. Overall, the hitters are still putting balls into play more frequently than most teams (8.1 bb%; 20.2k%). Their .301 BABIP is right in line with the league mean, and their team triple slash on the season rests at .261/.325/.403. Fans have yet to see a good month from Jason Bay, but he’s been excellent in his last 15 games or so. Should Carlos Beltran come back, Jerry would be wise to maximize RF production by playing Francoeur against lefties and Pagan against righties when Beltran is in the lineup.
| AVG | BABIP | OBP | SLG | ISO | SPD | wOBA | |
| APR | 0.242 | 0.280 | 0.329 | 0.384 | 0.142 | 6.4 | 0.319 |
| MAY | 0.264 | 0.305 | 0.324 | 0.401 | 0.138 | 5.7 | 0.323 |
| JUN | 0.274 | 0.308 | 0.324 | 0.424 | 0.150 | 5.3 | 0.329 |
| JUL | 0.264 | 0.359 | 0.327 | 0.389 | 0.125 | 6.7 | 0.315 |
| TOT | 0.261 | 0.313 | 0.326 | 0.400 | 0.139 | 6.0 | 0.322 |
The Mets pitching has been strong of late, but has benefited from a combination of luck, defense, and ballpark factor for most of the season. They are 24th overall (12th in nl) in WHIP with a 1.43 mark, but 6th overall (5th in nl) in ERA with a 3.83 mark. Essentially, they are putting runners on base, often via walks, but they are stranding those runners 76.3% of the time, good for 2nd in the NL behind the Padres. The Mets are middle of the pack in most batted ball against stats and have a .311 BABIP against with a 1.16 GB/FB%. They’ve thrown the 3rd most pitches in the NL. Dickey, Pelfrey, and Niese all throw 50% ground balls, in part why they’ve been able to limit homeruns against this year.
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP | LOB% | WHIP | HR/9 | |
| APR | 2.97 | 3.77 | 4.51 | 0.296 | 80.4 | 1.39 | 0.51 |
| MAY | 4.85 | 4.81 | 4.57 | 0.323 | 72.8 | 1.56 | 1.27 |
| JUN | 3.54 | 3.77 | 4.21 | 0.302 | 76.6 | 1.29 | 0.73 |
| JUL | 3.60 | 3.22 | 3.81 | 0.376 | 75.2 | 1.54 | 0.51 |
| TOT | 3.74 | 3.89 | 4.28 | 0.324 | 76.3 | 1.45 | 0.76 |
