Big couple of days for big Mike Pelfrey. After posting 15 victories in 2010, the Mets rewarded Pelfrey with a hefty raise. Pelfrey, who earned $500,000 last season, will earn $3.9 million in 2011.
But wait, it gets better. Not only will Big Mike be cashing bigger checks, manager Terry Collins has already announced Pelfrey as the opening day Continue reading
July, let’s be real, was miserable. The Mets went 9 and 17 with a -11 run differential. They only allowed 99 runs but could only muster 88 runs themselves. The hitting disappeared. The Mets hit .227/.293/.353 good for a whopping .646 OPS. Their OPS and a 284 wOBA both ranked last in the league. Angel Pagan continued his stud play hitting .337/.402/.594 with a .257 ISO and 7.7 SPD score. They got little production out of second base as the trifecta of talent that is Luis Castillo, Alex Cora, and Ruben Tejada all struggled getting on base. Luis Castillo’s .282 OBP was about 40 points higher than Tejada’s and 80 points higher than Cora’s. There’s no excuse to be starting Cora, even if Castillo is struggling. There’s barely an excuse to even have him on the team. David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Ike Davis all performed well in July, but the struggles continued for Jason Bay. Carlos Beltran walked 14% of the time in July but struggled early with his triple slash. He’s still struggling at the plate but has walked 17% of the time in his past 14 games. Jeff Francoeur maintained his sneaky persona of generating outs more than practically all of baseball, all while capturing the adoration of anti-sabr Met fans. Haters.
The Mets pitching had it’s bright spots in July, though Mike Pelfrey’s regression seemingly masked the other starters’ strides. The Mets are a hittable staff without strong strike out numbers. They’ve been able to limit home runs all year likely due to ground ball tendencies and Citi’s park factor. Mike Pelfrey had a horrific July. His k/9 continued it’s descent and for the month of July was a measly 4.35, but worse was his 5.66 bb/9. Opposing hitters hit .419 off of him. Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, and R.A. Dickey turned in spectacular Julys. Fun fact: Jonathon Niese had a 98% strand rate in July. The Mets had the sixth best FIP in all of baseball in July. Imagine what it could have been if Pelfrey didn’t self destruct.
| .337 | .402 | .594 |
Note to all Major-League baseballs teams: if you are looking for a textbook guide on how to take yourself out of a division race and a wild card race simultaneously, all in the course of 11 days, just analyze the Mets’ recent road trip to the West Coast. It’s a prime example of how to go from contenders to pretenders.
At the All-Star break, the Mets were 8 games above .500 and just 4 games behind Atlanta for the division lead. They were one game out of a three-way tie for the wild card with the Dodgers and the Rockies. But the tides have completely turned as the team went 2 and 9 on their road trip and with the win on Tuesday they are just two games above .500. They dropped from second to third place in the division and are 6.5 games behind Atlanta. Additionally, they are 5.5 games out of the wild card race but the worst part is that three teams have leap-frogged over them and now they must overcome five other teams to grab a wild card berth with the Marlins right at their heels.
Not to put salt in the wounds, but since the All-Star break they are batting .196 as a team with a .252 OBP. They have averaged just 2.1 runs a game (not included Tuesday or Wednesday’s games) and with a post break team ERA of 3.67 (which isn’t bad) it’s not going to translate into many victories.
So in case anyone is watching the calendar, July 31st is this coming Saturday, That’s baseball’s trade deadline. As this date rapidly approaches and the Mets continue to play poorly, given the circumstances, I’ve changed by position on the Mets’ being buyers. Ten days ago, I thought that the Mets needed to acquire another starting pitcher. I didn’t feel that the R.A. Dickey/Hisanori Takahashi duo was enough to hold up the remainder of the season (I still don’t), but what has really sabotaged the Mets of late is the decrepit hitting. The poor hitting over the past week and half as almost completely wiped away a first half that was cultivated on renewed energy and headier, smarter baseball.
Sure, teams go through slumps. And the Mets will obviously hit far better than they have of late. But realistically, Atlanta has been playing solid ball all season long and are in a “win-another-one-for-Bobby” mode. The Phillies are actively seeking starting pitching help (Roy Oswalt?) and have a potent offense despite the absence of Chase Utley. But even with their shortcoming of injuries and a thin bullpen, they have played far more consistent baseball than the Mets. And if you thinking that the wild card is still attainable, that’s probably not a realistic expectation either. The Mets have to battle with 5 other teams for one spot. That’s a lot to hope for that five other teams will all play poorly enough for the Mets to pass them.
Yes, this sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, but the toughest part is for management to decide whether the Mets are buyers or sellers this week. This may be a decision that goes down to the wire and is very much contingent on how the Mets play over the next few games. Truthfully, I would hate to see that Mets take a sellers position. In a “win now” city like New York, it doesn’t sit well with the fans. But I’m of the opinion that even if the Mets don’t acquire another arm or bat of great significance, if they could somehow convince some team to take Oliver Perez and/or Luis Castillo, that would be a positive through subtraction. After all, don’t the Angels owe the Mets one for taking on Gary Matthews Jr?
We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days, but my prediction is that the Mets will more than likely try to acquire an extra arm without giving up top prospects or players. It will probably be a minor addition that hopefully can infuse just the right kind of energy that that has been absent of late. It ill be a move like most of the Mets moves: one that doesn’t distinguish them either as a buyer or seller. A move that will be a half-hearted acquisition that neither commits to winning nor waves the white flag of surrender. Isn’t that the way the Mets operate?
The Mets were swept for the first time since mid-may as they fell to the Diamondbacks late Wednesday night in a 14 inning affair. This sweep has caused a stir among Met fans as the calls for the firing of the manager are as loud as the calls for Omar to make an impact trade. Mike Pelfrey was awful on Monday, but R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese continued their success.
| Pelfrey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 5.51 | 3.46 | 0.55 | 0.324 | 74.8 | 48.6 | 6.5 | 4.01 | 3.87 | 4.37 |
| as of 7/19 | 5.50 | 3.35 | 0.56 | 0.313 | 77.2 | 49.4 | 6.7 | 3.58 | 3.84 | 4.30 |
| career | 5.23 | 3.41 | 0.67 | 0.317 | 71.0 | 49.8 | 7.6 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 4.60 |
Mike Pelfrey had an anomaly of a start as he couldn’t get out of the second inning on Monday. Big Pelf gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks, while only striking out 1. 3 of those 7 hits went for extra bases. Many people have pointed to Pelfrey using his secondary pitches more often and Jerry Manuel would like to see him utilize his fastball. We’ll see if he heeds Manuel’s advice in his next start. Richard went into great detail yesterday of the Pelfrey of late.
| Dickey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 6.15 | 2.51 | 0.57 | 0.302 | 77.4 | 54.3 | 7.2 | 2.73 | 3.41 | 3.78 |
| as of 7/20 | 6.38 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.306 | 77.3 | 55.0 | 6.3 | 2.63 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| career | 5.60 | 3.43 | 1.28 | 0.313 | 70.8 | 45.1 | 12.1 | 5.02 | 4.92 | 4.62 |
R.A. Dickey was strong again and picked up a quality start, despite getting the loss. Dickey threw 117 pitches, 63 for strikes, as he went 7 innings for the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. He continues to be one of the better pitchers on the staff as he is out-xFIPing the rest of thestarters. Fangraphs featured a nice post yesterday on our beloved Dickey.
| Niese | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 7.35 | 2.83 | 1.06 | 0.316 | 78.6 | 49.2 | 11.9 | 3.54 | 4.14 | 3.96 |
| as of 7/21 | 7.17 | 2.89 | 0.84 | 0.318 | 77.2 | 50.0 | 9.6 | 3.44 | 3.88 | 4.00 |
| career | 7.13 | 3.12 | 0.96 | 0.325 | 75.4 | 48.4 | 10.4 | 4.01 | 4.08 | 4.09 |
Jonathon Niese needed 99 pitches to get through 5 innings on Wednesday night, though he struck out 6 and only walked 1. He gave up 3 solo shots on 6 hits but kept his team in the game. It’s fun watching his xFIP go down in a start like this despite making a few mistakes, as his hr/fb% normalized a bit more. Niese’s peripherals look solid and he’s been able to strand runners over 78% of the time. Let’s watch his innings count and pitch count as the year progresses.
| Pelfrey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 5.51 | 3.46 | 0.55 | 0.324 | 74.8 | 48.6 | 6.5 | 4.01 | 3.87 | 4.37 |
| as of 7/19 | 5.50 | 3.35 | 0.56 | 0.313 | 77.2 | 49.4 | 6.7 | 3.58 | 3.84 | 4.30 |
| career | 5.23 | 3.41 | 0.67 | 0.317 | 71.0 | 49.8 | 7.6 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 4.60 |
These are busy days for general managers as they scramble looking to make the best trades that will solidify their teams for a post reason run before the July 31st trade deadline. Phone calls are being made, emails and being sent and general managers and owners have a firm grip on their Blackberry’s.
No doubt, Omar Minaya is faithfully scanning the trade market looking for a way to sure up the Mets. The area of focus that needs improving, from most people’s opinion, is starting pitching and I would have to agree with that sentiment. The urgency to find another arm has been somewhat pacified by R.A. Dickey’s surprising resurgence to relevancy. But in truth, I remain skeptical that Dickey will continue to rival Johan Santana’s ERA this season and that he will end up being closer to his career ERA of 5.04. It’s tough to take much stock in what he is doing. How many pitchers redefine their careers at the age of 35? Not to say that I want Dickey to fail. Nothing could be further from the truth. But the team needs the extra arms, if not for Dickey at least for Hisanori Takahashi.
But there are several variables involved with the Mets landing a quality arm at the deadline:
So who are the names that are on the trade block that the Mets could go after? The names that are being tossed about are Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt, Jake Westbrook, Ted Lilly and Brett Myers.
From this list, only Haren and Myers are making less than $10 million this year, but even for Haren, the Mets would still have to be responsible for about $4 million and the number of prospects that Arizona would demand in return makes Haren a long shot.
Oswalt is too expensive and would cost too much in return for players. Besides, the Yankees will probably land him.
Westbrook wouldn’t cost the Mets a lot of players, but his $5 million salary is a lot to take on for a mediocre pitcher with a history of injury problems and a lifetime 4.34 ERA.
Ted Lilly is my personal choice but there are some issues even with him. First, from reports, the Mets are souring on Lilly as they have been concerned with his loss of velocity this year coming back from injury. Also the players the Mets would have to give up would be higher than Westbrook, but not as high as Haren or Oswalt. And there’s the matter of money, Lilly is probably more expensive than what the Mets are willing to spend. But the nice thing about Lilly, despite the loss of velocity, is that for the past 4 seasons Lilly has a cumulative WHIP of 1.14. He’s an attractive control pitcher but allows a lot of fly balls which gets him into trouble, especially at Wrigley Field. Home runs have been his downfall this year. But CitiField would be suppress some of those home runs and might offer him more success.
Lilly is also in his walk year and will become a free agent at the end of 2010, so he has a great deal of personal motivation to do well and New York would provide a nice stage to audition from. He’s also positioned himself as a type A free agent, so at the end of the year if the Mets offered him arbitration and he declined, the Mets could secure a couple of high draft picks from the team that eventually signs him. Something to think about for Omar.
However, the most attractive pitcher out there that really fits all of the Mets criteria is Brett Myers. He’s cheap, wouldn’t cost the team a lot of players and he’s done well enough this year to provide enough improvement of a pitcher like Takahashi who the Mets would prefer to send back to the bullpen. He’s not a bad option considering the Mets limitations and he has shown health this year which he has been the issue in the past. Even if something were to happen to him injury-wise, the $1.5 million the Mets would have to pay would be a low enough risk to take a gamble on Myers.
So those are some of the nuts and bolts of what the Mets are dealing with as the trade deadline approaches. The most likely scenario is that the Mets will go after Myers but not so much as to compromise their farm system. If the Mets don’t land Myers, there may be other options like Westbrook, with Cleveland eating a good portion of the salary. But at the end, the Mets might just stand pat which would be a shame as they are in the mix of things. But don’t be too disappointed if that happens, the Mets are so very good at raising the hopes of their fans and falling short. We should be used to it by now. The trade deadline may come and go with no significant changes. But of course, we’ll hold our breath and hope for something different, as Met fans do every year.
Though the Mets were only able to take 1 game from the Giants, the starters were not the ones to blame. Hisanori Takahashi was beat up as he made a spot start for Mike Pelfrey, but the hitting was missing in action as they only scored 7 runs in 4 games. Look for the Mets bats to rebound against the Diamondbacks as the starting pitching continues to impress.
| Dickey | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 6.38 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.306 | 77.3 | 55.0 | 6.3 | 2.63 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| as of 7/15 | 6.65 | 2.63 | 0.55 | 0.314 | 76.8 | 55.0 | 6.9 | 2.77 | 3.31 | 3.73 |
| career | 5.63 | 3.44 | 1.28 | 0.314 | 70.7 | 45.0 | 12.0 | 5.03 | 4.92 | 4.63 |
R.A. Dickey was strong on Thursday, lasting 7 innings while giving up 1 run on only 5 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 3 and induced 9 groundouts to 6 flyouts. He’s seeing the most success of his career thanks to his nice mix of walk prevention and a 55% groundball rate. He’s been a bit lucky on home runs, but nothing too troublesome for a starter who is pitching well and getting a fair share of his starts at Citi Field. Add in a respectable 6.38 k/9 and a faster knuckleball and you have what should be a mainstay in this rotation for the rest of the season. Dickey has been worth 1.6 WAR so far in 11 starts.
| Niese | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 7.17 | 2.89 | 0.84 | 0.318 | 77.2 | 50.0 | 9.6 | 3.44 | 3.88 | 4.00 |
| as of 7/16 | 7.33 | 2.81 | 0.90 | 0.321 | 76.3 | 49.5 | 10.2 | 3.61 | 3.95 | 3.98 |
| career | 7.00 | 3.17 | 0.79 | 0.327 | 74.4 | 48.9 | 8.8 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 4.12 |
Jonathon Niese is due for a lot more recognition as the season progresses. He put together another great outing on Friday, going 7 innings giving up 1 run on 6 hits. He did walk 3 and only struck out 4, but continues to be a groundball out machine. Niese doesn’t have a large enough sample to make too many conclusions, but he looks like a pitcher who is going to get outs from balls in play and limit walks enough to be successful. A k/9 above 7 is also promising and as his secondary pitches develop there’s no reason to think he can’t rack up the strikeouts. Niese was left off a lot of prospect lists and in his first full season he’s doing his best to change (at least some) of the perception of recent Met prospects. Every team covets a 23 year old lefty who can strike guys out, limit walks, and induce ground balls 50% of the time.
| Takahashi | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
| career | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
Mike Pelfrey was scratched from his start on Saturday due to a stiff neck and was replaced by Hisanori Takahashi who got tagged for 6 runs on 7 hits including 2 home runs in 2.2 innings of work. Takahashi has been hurt recently by a both homeruns and being too hittable. His leash is probably short, especially with Oliver Perez coming back to the lineup despite Perez being pegged as a $12 million dollar LOOGY.
| Santana | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 5.87 | 2.80 | 0.53 | 0.275 | 78.3 | 34.8 | 4.3 | 2.87 | 3.54 | 4.65 |
| as of 7/18 | 5.88 | 2.91 | 0.57 | 0.272 | 77.6 | 34.3 | 4.5 | 2.98 | 3.62 | 4.69 |
| career | 8.88 | 2.51 | 0.95 | 0.286 | 77.4 | 37.6 | 9.0 | 3.10 | 3.39 | 3.48 |
Johan Santana looked great despite the Met relievers blowing the win for him again. Santana went 8 innings, yielding 1 run on 8 hits while only walking 1. He struck out 5 and induced 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts. He’s been able to maintain success with a k/9 below 6.0 and has limited homeruns significantly this year. Santana’s xFIP isn’t a great metric to evaluate him, considering he’s limited home runs below the league average the past few years and with the help of Citi Field he should be able to maintain a lower hr/fb% than the rest of the league and a lower rate than his career 9.0 hr/fb%. Santana’s continued success will be pivotal to the Mets chance at a playoff birth.
| Takahashi | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| current | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
| career | 8.26 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 0.328 | 74.1 | 37.1 | 10.0 | 4.69 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
The Mets offense seemingly exploded in June as David Wright mashed to the tune of .404/.447/.683; .475 wOBA. Jose Reyes finally found his stride, hitting .314/.360/.533; .397 wOBA. Overall, the hitters are still putting balls into play more frequently than most teams (8.1 bb%; 20.2k%). Their .301 BABIP is right in line with the league mean, and their team triple slash on the season rests at .261/.325/.403. Fans have yet to see a good month from Jason Bay, but he’s been excellent in his last 15 games or so. Should Carlos Beltran come back, Jerry would be wise to maximize RF production by playing Francoeur against lefties and Pagan against righties when Beltran is in the lineup.
| AVG | BABIP | OBP | SLG | ISO | SPD | wOBA | |
| APR | 0.242 | 0.280 | 0.329 | 0.384 | 0.142 | 6.4 | 0.319 |
| MAY | 0.264 | 0.305 | 0.324 | 0.401 | 0.138 | 5.7 | 0.323 |
| JUN | 0.274 | 0.308 | 0.324 | 0.424 | 0.150 | 5.3 | 0.329 |
| JUL | 0.264 | 0.359 | 0.327 | 0.389 | 0.125 | 6.7 | 0.315 |
| TOT | 0.261 | 0.313 | 0.326 | 0.400 | 0.139 | 6.0 | 0.322 |
The Mets pitching has been strong of late, but has benefited from a combination of luck, defense, and ballpark factor for most of the season. They are 24th overall (12th in nl) in WHIP with a 1.43 mark, but 6th overall (5th in nl) in ERA with a 3.83 mark. Essentially, they are putting runners on base, often via walks, but they are stranding those runners 76.3% of the time, good for 2nd in the NL behind the Padres. The Mets are middle of the pack in most batted ball against stats and have a .311 BABIP against with a 1.16 GB/FB%. They’ve thrown the 3rd most pitches in the NL. Dickey, Pelfrey, and Niese all throw 50% ground balls, in part why they’ve been able to limit homeruns against this year.
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP | LOB% | WHIP | HR/9 | |
| APR | 2.97 | 3.77 | 4.51 | 0.296 | 80.4 | 1.39 | 0.51 |
| MAY | 4.85 | 4.81 | 4.57 | 0.323 | 72.8 | 1.56 | 1.27 |
| JUN | 3.54 | 3.77 | 4.21 | 0.302 | 76.6 | 1.29 | 0.73 |
| JUL | 3.60 | 3.22 | 3.81 | 0.376 | 75.2 | 1.54 | 0.51 |
| TOT | 3.74 | 3.89 | 4.28 | 0.324 | 76.3 | 1.45 | 0.76 |
The New York Mets swept the Cleveland Indians on Thursday as they won seven straight heading into their weekend series with the New York Yankees. The Mets are playing some of the best baseball in the majors and getting contributions from many young players. Their rotation has been key in this June surge, so let’s take a look at how the starters fared against The Tribe and how their key metrics are trending.
| santana | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | babip | lob% | gb% | hr/fb% | era | fip | xfip |
| current | 5.77 | 2.93 | 0.68 | 0.270 | 77.1 | 36.6 | 5.5 | 3.13 | 3.82 | 4.71 |
| thru 6/15 | 6.14 | 2.96 | 0.64 | 0.272 | 78.0 | 36.1 | 5.1 | 2.96 | 3.65 | 4.63 |
| career | 8.95 | 2.51 | 0.97 | 0.286 | 77.4 | 37.8 | 9.2 | 3.12 | 3.40 | 3.46 |
Johan Santana recorded his fifth win of the season on Wednesday, though once again he did so by getting outs via balls in play as he only struck out one. Johan Santana’s k/9 has dropped to below 6 for the first time this season. He’s starting to give up home runs, which for the first third of the season, seemed to be the metric keeping his era respectable. He’s still pitching well for a pitcher who isn’t striking anyone out, and his fly ball tendencies haven’t gotten him into too much trouble yet. His hr/fb% is still 4 points below his career average. His xFIP sits at an ugly 4.71 and sooner or later his fly balls are going to turn into home runs. A sub 6 k/9 and an elevated walk rate is not a pretty combo for a fly ball pitcher. Concern is definitely warranted.
| niese | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | babip | lob% | gb% | hr/fb% | era | fip | xfip |
| current | 6.72 | 2.94 | 0.70 | 0.331 | 73.9 | 50.0 | 8.2 | 3.64 | 3.77 | 4.05 |
| thru 6/16 | 7.06 | 2.98 | 0.63 | 0.336 | 73.1 | 52.2 | 7.7 | 3.61 | 3.60 | 3.93 |
| career | 6.66 | 3.29 | 0.69 | 0.340 | 71.7 | 48.6 | 7.7 | 4.24 | 3.83 | 4.19 |
Jonathon Niese followed up his complete game performance with another strong outing, going 7 innings and striking out 3. He induced 8 ground ball outs and 8 fly ball outs and is continuing to impress without huge strikeout totals. He improved to 4-2 on the season, as trade rumors whirl about Seattle’s interest in him as they look to find a suitor with available cash for Cliff Lee. It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets decide to do, since their true ace Santana, is clearly on the decline. Like Mike Pelfrey, Niese induces 50% ground balls, and in a large ballpark his value is even greater as the fly balls he does give up yield home runs well below the league average. Niese’s babip has stabilized a bit, after being the high 3s for the first two months of the season, and it still has room to regress towards the league average.
| dickey | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | babip | lob% | gb% | hr/fb% | era | fip | xfip |
| current | 7.28 | 2.82 | 0.47 | 0.342 | 80.1 | 50.8 | 5.6 | 2.82 | 3.13 | 3.74 |
| thru 6/17 | 6.68 | 2.78 | 0.56 | 0.329 | 82.9 | 49.5 | 6.3 | 2.78 | 3.36 | 3.90 |
| career | 5.65 | 3.53 | 1.33 | 0.320 | 70.6 | 44.1 | 12.3 | 5.22 | 5.02 | 4.69 |
R.A. Dickey perpetuated the Mets win streak, and his own, as he improved to 5-0 and his young season. He’s seeing success by limiting balls into play with a 7.28 k/9 which is significantly higher than his 5.65 career mark. He also has improved his ground ball rate about 4% points this season, as his gb% is an impressive 50.8%. He has been stranding runners at a clip of 80% which is bound to regress, though his babip of .342 has room to regress too. The Mets have to keep handing Dickey the ball, no matter what happens when John Maine and Oliver Perez return from their DL stints.
The sun just got a little brighter for the Mets as they won consecutive road games for the first time this season and their first road series. Granted, the wins are coming against the Baltimore Orioles who are owners of the worst record in baseball, but these are the games that the Mets must win if they are to call themselves contenders. The upcoming Cleveland series could be categorized in a similar fashion as must win games. The Indians are not playing the same underwhelming baseball as the Orioles, but they are a team that will struggle to be a .500 ball club and the Mets need to look at the Indian series as one that they should win as well.
With eleven games under their belts in June, the Mets are 9-2. Still, the offense has remained relatively quiet for the most part although it was nice to see them break out on Sunday with 18 hits against Kevin Millwood and company. Still the team is batting just .260 this month and have been offensively erratic. Hopefully the hot hitting on Sunday will carryover on the flight from Baltimore to Cleveland.
However the real story (and has been all season long) is the pitching. For June the Mets have the best ERA in baseball at 2.46. What’s been particularly impressive over the last 11 games and what I consider a very good sign is that they almost have a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio and have only given up 3 home runs. The walks have been the biggest nemesis for the pitching staff as they are second in the major-leagues allowing the most walks (255) behind only the Brewers who best the Mets at this dubious distinction.
Obviously, we Met fans are overjoyed right now with the state of the pitching. But let’s be honest here for a moment. There’s probably not a soul out in Met-Land that foresaw this kind of pitching coming out of spring training.
Leaving Port St. Lucie, Johan Santana had an ERA of 6.75, Jon Niese an ERA of 6.52 and Mike Pelfrey, who has unquestionable been the Mets best pitcher this year left spring training with an ERA of 6.15. Opposing hitters feasted off of Pelfrey in the pre-season smacking 8 home runs through just 26 innings. But that was a different Mike Pelfrey as he has gone through a renaissance and I will make this statement with confidence: he has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the major leagues this year. And you know that home run problem in spring training? Pelfrey has only allowed 3 home runs through 86 innings of work and has a stellar ERA of 2.39 with a 9-1 record.
However, John Maine and Oliver Perez’s springs were a foreshadowing of the disaster to come. Maine left Port St Lucie with an ERA of 7.88 while Perez decided to outdo him with an 8.68 ERA. Maine has since been placed on the DL and as far as Perez goes, I have spent many, many hours wishing and wishing him out into the cornfield. Sadly that has not worked, so I will have to settle for Buffalo
Perhaps the biggest maneuvers that have salvaged the Maine/Perez Titanic were the addition of Hisanori Takahasi to the rotation and the promotion of R.A. Dickey. Both were afterthoughts during spring training. Takahashi was penciled in for the bullpen while Dickey seemed to have a one-way ticket to Buffalo after pitching just a handful of innings in spring training. They have both stepped up and fulfilled significant gaps in the pitching staff and have pitched surprisingly well.
But here is where things get dicey because I’d be lying if I felt that the Dickey/Takahashi combo was the Mets equivalent to the Jeff Neimann/Wade Davis duo that anchor the back-end of the Tampa Bay Rays’ rotation. In truth, I’m holding my breath waiting for them to look more like the Kyle Davies/Gil Meche tandem of the Royals.
Takahasi may own much of his success so far this season to the fact that he is an enigma to the league. Scouting reports have not been fully compiled on him and the real test will be the 2nd go-around in the league to see if he is still able to be as successful. Certainly, hitters will be making adjustments and Takahashi will need to stay a step ahead and make his own adjustments if the Mets are relaying on his continued success.
Opposing hitters are already warming up to Takahashi as he moves through the lineup two or three times. The first time around batters are hitting just .250. The average goes up a pinch the second time around to .268 but by the third time, it jumps significantly to .346. To further bring the point home, the Florida Marlins have seen Takahashi on four separate occasions this season: three times in relief and once as a starter. The third and fourth go-arounds against the Marlins have resulted in a cumulative 7 earned runs through 8.1 innings. This may be a trend the Mets will need to watch.
Dickey, on the other hand, has been around baseball for a while. What he has accomplished so far exceeds many people’s expectations, but how far can the Mets ride this gravy train with a pitcher who has a career ERA of 5.25 and a lifetime WHIP of 1.56? If you follow Dickey’s historical trends, what he has been doing this season is an anomaly in an otherwise tainted career. Dickey has never produced an ERA lower than 4.62 for a season so the concern is that Dickey’s future outings will begin to regress back to his historical trends.
Personally, I love the efforts that both Takahashi and Dickey have been putting out and I hope for their continued success. But the Mets have been playing with house money and there’s a pit in my stomach that tells me that the Mets need to do more where their pitching is concerned. They need some insurance for Dickey and Takahashi if they should falter, and in my humble opinion, not to be a downer, but I expect one of them to stumble. Perhaps Maine will come around and right himself. Perhaps there is a trade option that might provide that needed back-up. Certainly Omar Minaya should be calling clubs about now and seeing what is available. If a deal could be made to acquire some mid-level starting pitcher, the Mets could find themselves in a battle to the finish.
But one thing is for sure: if the Mets choose to look at Oliver Perez as a viable option to help them through the rest of the season, they might as well push the self-destruct button right now and save all Met fans the agony of another season of frustration. Let’s hope they find better and more suitable options in the coming weeks.
What do you think? Are Takahashi and Dickey enough for the back-end of the rotation? Or would you prefer the Mets land another arm as back-up to secure that they stay in contention for the division? Let us know your thoughts.
The Mets got a much needed sweep against the Marlins in part due to strong pitching performances from Dickey and Niese. Takahashi didn’t fare poorly until the 6th inning on Sunday, but the Mets were able to rally back late in the game. As we get set for another series vs the Padres, let’s take a deeper look at the Mets’ starters.
| dickey | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | babip | lob% | gb% | hr/fb% | era | fip | xfip |
| current | 5.68 | 3.20 | 0.71 | 0.319 | 81.9 | 46.8 | 8.0 | 3.20 | 3.93 | 4.25 |
| thru 6/4 | 5.68 | 3.32 | 0.95 | 0.314 | 87.3 | 42.4 | 11.1 | 2.84 | 4.31 | 4.24 |
| career | 5.52 | 3.57 | 1.36 | 0.315 | 70.4 | 43.7 | 12.5 | 5.30 | 5.12 | 4.75 |
R.A. Dickey continued to take advantage of Citi Field and the Mets defense as he won his third straight game on Friday. He pitched 6.1 innings, yielding 3 runs on 7 hits while striking out 4 and only walking 2. Dickey threw 104 pitches, 71 of which were strikes. He still has a high strand rate thanks in part to a decent hr and ground ball rate. Dickey is going well right now, let’s hope he keeps it up.
| niese | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | babip | lob% | gb% | hr/fb% | era | fip | xfip |
| current | 7.26 | 3.54 | 0.74 | 0.373 | 72.7 | 50.6 | 8.7 | 4.28 | 3.93 | 4.15 |
| thru 6/5 | 7.19 | 3.92 | 0.87 | 0.384 | 71.0 | 49.6 | 9.8 | 4.79 | 4.21 | 4.31 |
| career | 6.95 | 3.38 | 0.72 | 0.361 | 70.9 | 48.8 | 7.9 | 4.70 | 3.92 | 4.27 |
Jonathon Niese had an outstanding return from the disabled list going 7 innings giving up only 1 run on 6 hits on Saturday. He stuck out 6 and walked only 1 and got his second win of the season. He was able to throw 90 pitches, 63 for strikes. His k/9 and bb/9 are moving in the right direction and his extremely high BABIP is bound to regress towards the league average. His strand rate is normal and he has a very good ground ball rate over 50% right now. His FIP is 35 points lower than his ERA and his xFIP is creeping downwards towards 4.0. We have yet to see the best from Niese this season, and his best may be a lot better than what most are expecting.
| takahashi | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | babip | lob% | gb% | hr/fb% | era | fip | xfip |
| current | 9.51 | 3.61 | 0.76 | 0.335 | 75.8 | 33.3 | 6.7 | 3.80 | 3.29 | 3.93 |
| thru 6/6 | 9.64 | 3.64 | 0.43 | 0.341 | 77.5 | 33.6 | 4.1 | 3.21 | 2.79 | 3.77 |
| career | 9.51 | 3.61 | 0.76 | 0.335 | 75.8 | 33.3 | 6.7 | 3.80 | 3.29 | 3.93 |
Hisanori Takahashi continued regressing, though his k/9 and bb/9 are stabilizing a bit. On Sunday, Takahashi gave up 2 hrs in his no decision, going 5.1 innings yielding 5 runs on 6 hits. He did strike out 5 and walked 2, but once again was hurt by the long ball late in the game. Hethrew 90 pitches, but only threw 58 strikes. Takahashi’s gb% is extremely low and some of his fly balls are beginning to land over the fence. His FIP increased 50 points in 5 innings.
It’s no question that the Mets top 3 starters are Santana, Pelfrey, and Niese. If they can continue to scatter strong performances from Dickey and Takahashi they should be able to climb back into the divisional race. One can only wonder what Jenrry Mejia could do as a starter. Look for the Mets to remain interested in a starting pitcher as the trade deadline creeps closer and closer.
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