Tag Archives: RA Dickey

August 2, 2010

Mets Season on the line — Series previews

By mfgz

I wrote on Friday that there was no reason the Mets shouldn’t win their weekend series with the Diamondbacks. Well, I forgot about one major reason why they couldn’t (and didn’t): they’re the Mets.

All signs point to this season being over. The Mets are currently tied for third place in the NL East and 6.5 behind Atlanta for first. As tough as that is, they are 7.5 games out of the Wild Card with 5 teams ahead of them and Florida tied. The last time the Mets won two games in a row was June 22-23 vs. Detorit. Now they have to embark on a six game road trip against the Braves and the Phillies in order to save the season, when the last time they won consecutive games on the road was June 11-18 against the Orioles, Indians and Yankees. In fact, that was the only time all season the Mets won two or more games in a row on the road.

A 4-2 roadtrip will do the Mets no good. Even taking two of three from Atlanta still puts them 5.5 games out of first place. Picking up one game in three days when you’re as far out as the Mets are does nothing. They need to go 6-0 or 5-1 at the least, in order to stay in this thing. And that’s a lot to ask considering Atlanta is 34-13 at home, Philly is 34-18 and the Mets are 20-33 on the road.

The good news is the Mets have had success against both teams this season. They’re 5-3 vs. the Braves, outscoring them 20-15, and 4-2 vs. the Phillies while outscoring them 30-22 (everyone remembers the shutout sweep back in May). However, the Phillies did torch the Mets 10-1 and 11-5 back in May. And the last time the Mets played the Braves on July 9-11, Atlanta took two of three in Citi Field.

The Mets also have their work cut out for them with the pitching they will face this week. The series against Atlanta is as follows:
Tonight: Johan Santana vs. Tim Hudson
Tuesday: RA Dickey vs. Derek Lowe
Wednesday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Kris Medlen

When the Mets head to Philadelphia, they will miss Roy Oswalt. They will not miss Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay, however.
Friday: Hisanori Takahashi vs. Joe Blanton
Saturday: Jon Niese vs. Hamels
Sunday: Santana vs. Halladay — if the Mets have a miracle run this week, this matchup will be HUGE.

On paper, it doesn’t look too good this week but like the cliche says: that’s why they play the games.

Let’s Go Mets!

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July 22, 2010

Mets at Dodgers (6/22-6/25): Series Preview

By mfgz

While things seem to be falling apart in Metsland, the team rolls into the City of Angels to face a team that might actually be in an even worse predicament. Like the Mets, the Dodgers are only 1-6 since the All-Star Break. They’re ownership is going through a bitter divorce settlement that handcuffs them financially and they now have to deal with suspensions to Clayton Kershaw, Joe Torre, and the oh-so-important bnch coach Bob Schaefer.

Meanwhile, the Mets offense seems to still be on vacation. Since the second half, the Mets have been outscored by their opponents 34-15 in seven games. They were outscored by the putrid Diamondbacks alone 20-7. They sport a Herculean team batting average of .192 and an even more impressive .249 OBP and .318 slugging percentage. I just threw up in my mouth a bit.

Still, starting today the team is only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card lead and only 1 game behind the Dodgers.

The pitching matchups for the four-game series are as follows:
Hisanori Takahshi vs. Hiroki Kuroda (tonight)
Johan Santana vs. Vincente Padilla (Friday) — If they lose this game then I give up
Mike Pelfrey vs. James McDonald (Saturday)
RA Dickey vs. Clayton Kershaw (Sunday) — Kershaw was just handed a 5 game suspension, but will appeal and is allowed to play until that’s all settled. Sucks, I know.

As bad as the Mets offense has been, the starting pitching still hasn’t been all that stellar. Yes, Santana and Niese have been solid and RA has been formidable, but then you look at these facts:
- Takahshi hasn’t gone 6 innings since June 18th at Yankee Stadium
- Pelfrey hasn’t gone 5 innings since June 25th vs. Minnesota
- RA hasn’t won since June 23rd vs. Detroit — though, again, that’s not all his fault
Add in the fact that their closer can’t close games, Fernando Nieve is still in the bullpen and Oliver Perez is back — ugh, I just threw up in my mouth again.

Whatever. Go Mets!

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July 9, 2010

Braves vs. Mets (7/9-/711): Series at a glance

By mfgz

Cheer up Mets fans, LeBron might not be coming to New York but the Braves are!

Before MLB takes a mini-vacation for the All-Star celebrations, the Mets and Braves will battle in Citi Field with implications that bring back memories of the Mike Piazza days. Indeed it feels like this season may be bringing back the rivalry from the late 90′s/early 2000′s and really, can anyone complain? — Unless, of course, the Mets miss the playoffs.

This series could be a huge one for the Mets. As of now, New York leads in the NL Wild Card race. If they sweep this weekend, they will be tied for first place heading into the All-Star break which I think all of us would have signed up for at the start of the season. If they get swept, there’s a possibility they could be in third place.

The good news is, like the Mets, Atlanta has found much of their success at Turner Field where they are 30-10 so the Mets hold a distinct home-field advantage for this series. We all know by now Citi Field has helped the pitching staff, but the Mets sport some pretty impressive offensive numbers at home as well. Met hitters are batting  .271 with a .343 OBP, .763 OPS, 202 runs, 75 doubles, and 17 triples at Citi.

The pitching matchups are as follows: Tommy Hanson vs. RA Dickey tonight, Tim Hudson vs. Mike Pelfrey Saturday and Derek Lowe vs. Johan Santana on Sunday.

On the surface, it looks like Tommy Hanson is struggling in his sophomore campaign. But don’t let his 4.19 ERA fool you; his 3.37 FIP and 9.12 K/9 say that he’s faring much better than you think. The problem for Hanson has been the walks, as he averages 3.07 base-on-balls per 9 innings. It should be an interesting matchup to see the young flamethrower face off against the revitalized knuckleballer, much like last weekend with Strasburg.

Mike Pelfrey takes the mound Saturday, which lately has not been a good thing. Many fans have been referring to Pelfrey as an All-Star snub, but I’m not one of them. He has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and failed to get out of the 5th inning in his last two starts. The problem may lie in the fact that Big Pelf has lost the ability to get outs on the ground as of late. Going back to his start against the Padres on June 8, Pelfrey has gotten 76 fly ball outs while getting 65 outs via the ground ball, 11 less. Also, going back to that same date, Pelfrey has allowed more fly ball outs than ground ball outs in every game except June 30 in Puerto Rico, when he got 11 outs on the ground and 11 in the air. This is not good news for a pitcher who has been referred to as a ground ball pitcher since the day he was drafted.

As for Pelfrey’s counterpart on Saturday, Tim Hudson has had practically the opposite season of Tommy Hanson. His 2.44 and 8-4 record suggest he’s having a great season, but his 4.29 FIP and 4.16 xFIP say he’s been getting help from his defense. Hudson’s K/9 is also only at 4.57, down from his career mark of 6.04. Much of Timmy’s success this season has come from a .234 BABIP, so don’t be surprised if we see a second half regression from him.

On the flip side, don’t be surprised if we see a Johan Santana resurgance in the second half. He is well documented as an extraordinary second half pitcher as it is, and his last two starts suggest that may still be the case. The biggest thing to be highly encouraged by in Santana’s last two starts are the strikeouts, as he’s K’d 12 batters in 16 innings.

There’s a lot at stake here for a series in July and Citi field will definitely be rocking. Let’s go Mets!

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June 11, 2010

Mets @ Orioles/Indians (6/11-6/17): Series at a glance

By mfgz

These next six games will be a telling sign for the Mets, given their season-long road struggles and the fact that the Orioles and Indians are terrible teams. So, since the Mets can really use these next two series to push them right into the thick of the pennant race, I’m going to combine both series into one preview.

By now you all know the story: the Mets are where they are right now because of their home record (now 24-10 after a 5-1 homestand). On the road, however, they are a putrid 8-18. But they really haven’t had a prime opportunity to make a statement on the road like they do now. I did some math — which means the stats I’m about to point out are probably wrong somewhere along the line — and up to this point, Mets road opponents (Atlanta/Cincinnati/Colorado/Florida/Milwaukee/Philadelphia/San Diego/St. Louis/Washington) have a combined record of 283-258 this season, good for a .523 winning percentage. So they have been playing some quality teams on the road, though it certainly does nto excuse them from playing so poorly.

But the O’s and Indians are a different story. The two teams combine for a 40-79 record, a lousy .336 winning percentage. On top of that, both teams are just as bad at home as the Mets are on the road. The Orioles are only 11-18 at home this season, while the Indians are 10-16. Offensively, of the 30 MLB teams, the Orioles rank 29th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, 26th in slugging, and 27th in OPS. The Indians rank 26h in runs, 25th in slugging, and 25th in OPS. This is good news for Mets pitching, especially given how well the starters have been throwing lately.

This weekend, the Mets will face Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, and Kevin Millwood. There has been a lot of talk about the Mets maybe making a trade for Millwood, but perhaps Guthrie is the one they should be asking the Orioles about. Despite a declining K/9 rate (4.75 this season compared to 5.53 career), all of Guthrie’s other peripherals this season are better than his career numbers. As for Millwood, this season’s 4.64 ERA and 4.95 FIP are bad enough, but then you compare them to his career 3.92 ERA and 3.88 FIP and it’s even worse. And his 7.28 K/9 rate, while good, is also decling from his career average of 8.27.

When the Mets head to Cleveland they will see two of Cleveland’s young arms in Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot (with Jake Westbrook pitching the final game of the series). Masterson and Talbot are interesting when compared with each other. Looking at Masterson’s traditional stat line — 2-5, 4.74 ERA – it’s nothing special. But then you look closer and see a 8.03 K/9 rate, a 4.08 FIP and 3.88 xFIP, which tells you his defense has let him down a lot this season. Then you look at Talbot who, at 7-4, 3.59 ERA, is having a nice first full season. But with a 4.84 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP, it tells you his defense has actually been a lot of help for him. Oh, the quirkyness of baseball.

As for the Mets, they will go with RA Dickey, Hisanori Takahashi and Mike Pelfrey in Baltimore, then attack Cleveland with the lefty duo of Johan Santana and Jon Niese, before RA closes out the series. Interesting to see the knuckleballer opening up these next six games then ending it before next weekend’s showdown in the Bronx.

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June 8, 2010

Padres vs. Mets (6/8-6/10) – Series Preview

By mfgz

What a great upcoming series this will be. The best team in the National League is travelling into Citi Field to face the best team in baseball!…What?…What am I talking about, you say? Well, the Mets DO have the best home record in Major League Baseball. So if they didn’t have to endure that huge inconvenience of going on the road every other week, they would have the best record in baseball! And since they’re at home for this series, I say it’s fair to call them the best team in baseball until Friday, when they turn turn into one of the worst.

You’re also probably wondering how the San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League. I mean, this is an offense that has a .250 team batting average, have scored a mere 242 runs, and are second-to-last in the NL in home runs (42). Yet, even with their offensive struggles, the Friars sport a +54 run differential, the best in the National League.

The key has been their pitching. Coming into this series, the Padres lead MLB with a 3.02 team ERA, are second in MLB with a .231 BAA and are third in the NL with 447 strikeouts. The starting staff has two underrated, young arms which will be facing the Mets this series: Mat Latos and Clayton Richard.

Richard’s last start came last Wednesday against the Mets in San Diego. He pitched well, going 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts in a no-decision. In that start he went up against Johan Santana, who was brilliant. Tonight, he goes up against another Mets starter who has been brilliant all year in Mike Pelfrey. Most of the following stats for Met hitters against Richard are a result of last week:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Alex Cora

6

.000

.143

.000

.143

Angel Pagan

6

.167

.167

.167

.333

David Wright

5

.200

.333

.200

.533

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.500

.400

.900

Rod Barajas

4

.250

.250

.500

.750

Fernando Tatis

3

.667

.667

1.000

1.667

Ike Davis

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Henry Blanco

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Jose Reyes

2

.000

.333

.000

.333

Jason Bay

2

1.000

1.000

1.000

2.000

Mat Latos takes the hill tomorrow night against Johan. Latos made one start against the Mets last season, where he went 6 innings and allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory. Since that was his only appearance against the Amazin’s, posting player stats would be pointless. As for Santana, he has not allowed a run in his last two outings, yet doesn’t have a win to show for either, as the Mets offense totaled only 1 run in those starts and the bullpen was unable to hold things together.

In the series finale on Thursday afternoon, a resurgent Jon Garland will take on RA Dickey. Garland was a name thrown around during the off-season for the Mets, and has shown so far that he would have been a nice addition to the starting staff. So far this season, Garland is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA. However, a 4.17 FIP suggests that could change soon. Most of Garland’s success this season has come from the ground ball, as he has a 52% ground ball rate. As for the Mets, here’s how they’ve stacked up against Garland over the years:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Rod Barajas

21

.333

.391

.762

1.153

Alex Cora

13

.231

.231

.385

.615

Henry Blanco

12

.167

.333

.250

.583

David Wright

10

.100

.100

.100

.200

Jeff Francoeur

10

.500

.583

.900

1.483

Fernando Tatis

4

.750

.833

1.000

1.833

Jose Reyes

3

.667

.667

1.333

2.000

Jason Bay

3

.333

.333

.333

.667

Angel Pagan

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Tonight should be a nice night for baseball, with mostly sunny skies, tempratures in the low 70s and 11mph winds blowing from NW. If you have or were thinking about getting tickets for tomorrow’s game, however, hold up. The forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s and a 70% chance of rain. On Thursday, the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, with temperatures in the mid 70s and 12mph winds from NW.

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May 21, 2010

Yankees vs. Mets (5/21-5/23): Subway Series Preview

By mfgz

After the road trip from hell, the Mets come stumbling home and will open the first of a three game set with their crosstown rivals, and defending World Champions, the New York Yankees. Just what they need to get back on track! This homestand could very well determine the fate of Jerry Manuel and company, so some extra emphasis is added to this series, which will feature a couple of very interesting pitching matchups.

Tonight, Hisanori Takahashi will make his first Major League start against Javy Vazquez. Interleague play might be a huge break for Vazquez, whose 8.01 ERA and 6.48 FIP suggest that he can’t pitch in the American League. As for Takahashi, the 35 year old rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this year, posting a 2.69 FIP in 26 innings of relief. It will be interesting to see how long Manuel will stretch him out, as he has yet to throw more than 60 pitches. RA Dickey was apparently available in relief last night, so he should probably be available again tonight.

Here’s a look at how the Mets have stacked up against Vazquez. It’s worth noting Luis Castillo has a home run off him:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Luis Castillo

72

.361

.418

.458

.876

Alex Cora

21

.381

.409

.429

.838

Henry Blanco

20

.200

.273

.400

.673

Rod Barajas

15

.133

.188

.133

.321

Jose Reyes

13

.231

.286

.385

.670

Jason Bay

12

.167

.231

.167

.397

Fernando Tatis

10

.300

.417

.500

.917

Gary Matthews Jr.

10

.600

.600

1.100

1.700

David Wright

8

.375

.444

.875

1.319

Jeff Francoeur

5

.400

.400

1.000

1.400

Angel Pagan

3

.333

.333

.667

1.000

Saturday night should be an exciting night for my good friend and colleague, Matt Falzano, as Mike “he’s better than Phil Hughes” Pelfrey will go head-to-head with…the one and only Phil Hughes! Hughes has been stellar for the Yankees this year, posting a 2.25 ERA, 3.12 FIP, and an 8.59 K/9 ratio in the daunting AL East. Mike Pelfrey’s numbers, though good, are not quite as impressive: 3.02 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a 6.04 K/9 ratio. It should be an interesting duel between two up and coming New York stars.

There is not nearly enough of a sample size for any Mets hitters to post a chart. Jason Bay has the most at-bats against Hughes and is 1-for-6 with four strikeouts. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira has a .308 average off Big Pelf in 13 at bats.

The best matchup of the series will come in the finale Sunday night, as CC Sabathia goes up against Johan Santana. The last time Santana pitched on Sunday night was a total nightmare, so hopefully there won’t be a repeat performance. Johan has only struggled with two Yankees in his career: Derek Jeter (.423, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 26 AB) and Robinson Cano (.412, 1 RBI, 17 AB).

Heres a look at how the Mets have fared against Carsten Charles:

METS HITTER

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Gary Matthews Jr.

26

.192

.300

.231

.531

Luis Castillo

19

.211

.211

.263

.474

Rod Barajas

19

.421

.450

1.000

1.450

Jason Bay

9

.111

.111

.111

.222

Henry Blanco

7

.286

.444

.286

.730

Jeff Francoeur

7

.286

.286

.286

.571

Fernando Tatis

4

.250

.500

.250

.750

Alex Cora

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

David Wright

3

.000

.000

.000

.000

Weather stats (courtesy of weather.com): Unlike the last homestand, the Mets will be playing in some much better conditions. Tonight calls for 75 degrees and clear skies, with 11mph winds from ESE and Saturday will be the 71 with 9mph winds from the same direction. Sunday could be a little bit of a damper, however, as the forecast calls for a chance of showers and temperatures in the low-mid 60s with 10mph winds from ENE. According to weather.com the most favorable conditions for the Mets are day games (which there will be none of this series) with temperatures between 46 and 60 (also not happening) and winds out to left field (nope). Excellent!

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